Just wondering if anyone knows.....

[PinGirl]

What is the average time for the Wait List for Sold Out Properties like OKW or BWV? I am asking as I see all the ROFR's - but wonder how quickly that inventory is being thrown back into the pot by DVD if so many Owners are waiting for Inventory for so long?

If I get Points resale - I will not be able to use for Cruises or Adventures by Disney or the Concierge Collection - so...

In general I have always been happy with my Disney Ownership - but now I feel like I'm being held hostage - as, If I were to call another Vacation Ownership today or tomorrow - I am sure they would sell me points - I just wonder how long Disney can keep people Waiting 3-6 Months for points at the Sold Out resorts and keep people happy????

Yes you always have a choice - but I see people wanting resales getting ROFRD several times and people trying to buy inventory from Disney Direct waiting an unusually long time and I wonder what's the master plan?

Will inventory not come available until it goes up to $150 - so everyone wanting full benefits has to purchase at a premium from the developer?

Just curious if anyone else has wondered this...

 

[dmunsil]

What is the average time for the Wait List for Sold Out Properties like OKW or BWV? I am asking as I see all the ROFR's - but wonder how quickly that inventory is being thrown back into the pot by DVD if so many Owners are waiting for Inventory for so long?

It appears that the current wait time for BWV and BC is in the neighborhood of 2 months, depending on how big a contract you want. I don't know about OKW, but it would suspect it's similar. I hear the waiting list is longer for BLT.

If I get Points resale - I will not be able to use for Cruises or Adventures by Disney or the Concierge Collection - so...

At the conversion rates they're offering, you end up ahead if you just rent your points through a broker like David's and then pay cash for the cruise or Adventures by Disney. This is a teensy bit of extra hassle, but you're being compensated for it, so the downside of having resale points is pretty low.

In general I have always been happy with my Disney Ownership - but now I feel like I'm being held hostage - as, If I were to call another Vacation Ownership today or tomorrow - I am sure they would sell me points - I just wonder how long Disney can keep people Waiting 3-6 Months for points at the Sold Out resorts and keep people happy????

Yes you always have a choice - but I see people wanting resales getting ROFRD several times and people trying to buy inventory from Disney Direct waiting an unusually long time and I wonder what's the master plan?

Look at it from Disney's point of view. Their first choice is for a guest to buy at a new resort, as that's the most profitable for Disney. It costs them around $30/point to build a new resort, and these days they sell them for $150/point or so. Their next choice would be for a guest to buy a sold-out resort from them, as that's still profitable, but not quite as good. They may have paid 50-70% of the selling price to get those points at the older resort.

So I think they want there to be a waiting list of some kind. While people are waiting, some of them may decide to just buy at a current resort. The sales staff can check on the folks on the waiting list and give them another chance to sell them on the benefits of Aulani and Animal Kingdom, and now Grand Floridian.

It seems quite likely to me that Disney could if it chose close out the waiting list quickly. They'd just ROFR a bunch of contracts until they filled all the outstanding orders. It's practically free money. But if they can convert some of the waitlisters to buy new resorts, that's even more money. And if it gets too easy to buy the older resorts, that makes it harder and harder to sell the new resorts. Especially now, when they only have AKV at WDW available to everyone. VGF is going to do really well, but it'll sell out fast. It's so small.

So that means that they're intentionally keeping the waiting list at a couple months, basically so buying older resorts isn't quite as attractive an option.

Also, keep in mind that the ROFR rate is really very low. If you look at the stats, even at the peak Disney was exercising ROFR on less than 20% of the contracts. According to the stats on the thread here, Disney hasn't ROFRed a single AKV contract in the last 5 months. Your chances of getting ROFRed on a resale is pretty low.

Will inventory not come available until it goes up to $150 - so everyone wanting full benefits has to purchase at a premium from the developer?

I don't understand this question.

 

[PinGirl]

Hi Dmunsil,

Thanks for your detailed response. Explains a lot.

The Waitlist is more storefront facade than reality.

Does anyone have a guess as to what the long range plans are for the DVC Club once all the points go up to 150? Or have they said on a Member Cruise or at any meetings?

 

[dmunsil]

Hi Dmunsil,

Thanks for your detailed response. Explains a lot.

You're welcome, but do keep in mind it's more of an educated guess than anything. There are lots of people on this board with waaaaaaay more experience than me with DVC.

The Waitlist is more storefront facade than reality.

Well, it does exist and people do get points via the waitlist. What's not real about it? Get on it now and two months or so from now you'll have more points.

Does anyone have a guess as to what the long range plans are for the DVC Club once all the points go up to 150? Or have they said on a Member Cruise or at any meetings?

I don't think anyone has to guess; they plan to keep building new resorts and selling points as long as there are people willing to buy them. If sales slack off on new resorts, they'll stop building them until demand builds again. Why would $150 be any special benchmark? The price will go up as long as there are folks willing to pay that price. DVC has been through periods where it was harder to sell memberships, and when that happened they offered various enticements and bennies to get people to buy. I'm sure it'll happen again, what with the ebb and flow of the US economy.

Are you thinking about adding on to your current points and trying to decide whether to buy resale or direct? You said you felt "held hostage." Can you be more specific about what's causing you stress?

 

[PinGirl]

Hey Dmunsil - Thanks once again...

If there is frustration it stems from the fact that I always thought Disney was too classy to create what I think of as a Two-Tier membership system.

Tier 1) Access to everything since you buy from the developer

Tier 2) Access only to what you purchase in relation to the DVC Resorts

I have All Access in my current membership points - but now I'm faced with:

A) Buy points resale - but have only Tier 2 access with those points - and as time goes on these points will probably have less resale value than they have had in the past because there are now two different types of points on the market, All Access or Limited Access.

Previously if you bought resale - you could usually sell for what you bought at or more. By the end of the Year - we will start to see contracts listed with similar labels.

B) Buy points from DVD at Market Rate on an older resort - if and when that comes up (Maybe 2-3 months)- Or Purchase a new resort at Market Rate -these points will also lose value over time - but have All Access to Tier 1 Benefits.

I understand we all purchase to use - not for the resale value - but just in case something happens and you find yourself not using it...though that hasn't happened yet - lol

Just wishing it was easier to decide...

 

[vicki_c]

For your point A), I wouldn't look at it like there are two different types of points "on the market" necessarily. It's not like within the resale market you would have two tiers of points competing against each other.

I don't spend any time studying the resale market and prices other than reading posts here and there, but I don't think the resale restrictions have had THAT great of an impact on resale prices, have they? (Someone smarter than me can answer that.). The restrictions have been in place quite a while now and it doesn't seem to be stopping many from buying resale. As stated above, I would not use my direct purchased points for cruises unless I suddenly had a bunch of points that were going to expire or something, it's just not usually a good value.

The fact that Disney's resale prices are as high as they are (today, not in the past) is still pretty amazing to me when compared to timeshares in general.

As formDisney being too classy, well, I think that's just a misconception you need to put aside. DVD is a for profit business selling timeshares. Not special.

 

[CarolMN]

...(snip)...... A) Buy points resale - but have only Tier 2 access with those points - and as time goes on these points will probably have less resale value than they have had in the past because there are now two different types of points on the market, All Access or Limited Access.

The resale value of the points you purchase direct will be the same as those you purchased resale (assuming they are for the same resort) - i.e., you won't get more selling your direct points for BLT than the member who initially bought her BLT points via resale. "Tier 1" benefits do not transfer to a new owner with a sale.

Previously if you bought resale - you could usually sell for what you bought at or more. By the end of the Year - we will start to see contracts listed with similar labels.

I can still sell my BWV for more than I paid and I bought direct. However, no one should buy a timeshare counting on resale value. If that is a major concern to you, IMO, you are not a good candidate for DVC or any timeshare.

I do not understand your comment "By the end of the Year - we will start to see contracts listed with similar labels". If you mean you think you will see resale contracts that have "Tier 1" benefits attached to them, your assumption is incorrect. Again, "Tier 1" benefits do not transfer to a new owner with a sale.

B) Buy points from DVD at Market Rate on an older resort - if and when that comes up (Maybe 2-3 months)- Or Purchase a new resort at Market Rate -these points will also lose value over time - but have All Access to Tier 1 Benefits. ......

IMO, the so-called "Tier 1" benefits are of no economic value. They merely offer a member the opportunity to pay more money for something in exchange for convenience. The convenience is very expensive.

Buy only what you think you will regularly use for a DVC resort stay. Put the rest of the money you would otherwise spend into a vacation fund and spend cash for the non-DVC resort vacations. Again IMO, committing all of your future vacation money to DVC is not wise.

Good luck with your decision.

 

[dmunsil]

A) Buy points resale - but have only Tier 2 access with those points - and as time goes on these points will probably have less resale value than they have had in the past because there are now two different types of points on the market, All Access or Limited Access.

The two tier system is real, as you say, but keep in mind that when Disney put the restrictions on resales, they reduced the value of your points and everyone else's on the resale market. If you sell your points, the buyer doesn't get your "Tier 1" status; they become "Tier 2" because they were sold resale. AFAIK, there's no way to transfer your membership while retaining the tier 1 status. Maybe if you gift it to a family member it's still considered a direct purchase? I don't know.

So whatever hit has been made to the resale value has already happened. If you suddenly need to sell your DVC membership, you'll get less money for it than you would if Disney hadn't decided to institute two tiers. And, of course, Disney has signaled that they're willing to harm current owners' resale values in order to help prop up direct sales. I'm really surprised they didn't get a lot of heat over the change from existing owners (and by "a lot of heat" I mean like lawsuits and ugly publicity). It seemed to me at the time that most owners were happy their perks weren't being taken away and congratulating themselves on buying before the change. There were definitely people on the boards here who were pointing out that everyone's resales value had been damaged, but it didn't seem to cause as much consternation as I thought it should have.

If I had been an owner at the time, I would have been hopping mad that Disney was reducing the resale value of my ownership. In fact, it was one reason I gave up on buying DVC at the time. I felt like one big advantage of DVC is that it's always held its resale value much better than other timeshares. If Disney is willing to blatantly damage resale value, then that makes the whole thing seem much more risky.

Ultimately, you have a better shot at recouping your buy-in (if you ever need to sell) if you buy resale. The special perks are not actually worth anything financially; they're mildly convenient. Whether you buy from Disney or buy resale, your points will sell for the same amount on the resale market.

But whether you buy resale or direct, you should always keep in mind that if Disney feels it's better for Disney to damage your resale value to benefit the company, they are willing to do it.

Sorry to be such a downer, but this specific aspect of Disney's management of DVC makes me a little upset. I try to remind myself that other timeshare companies are massively worse, but that's not exactly a high bar to get over. And in the end, I did buy in, and I kinda wish I'd bought in several years ago. So apparently I'm drunk on Disney magic!

 

[DougEMG]

Disney has signaled that they're willing to harm current owners' resale values in order to help prop up direct sales. I'm really surprised they didn't get a lot of heat over the change from existing owners (and by "a lot of heat" I mean like lawsuits and ugly publicity). It seemed to me at the time that most owners were happy their perks weren't being taken away and congratulating themselves on buying before the change. There were definitely people on the boards here who were pointing out that everyone's resales value had been damaged, but it didn't seem to cause as much consternation as I thought it should have.

What Disney took away from resale purchasers were a small set of perks. At any time they can take away perks from anyone they want to. For example they could say that only people buying VGF direct get a discount on an annual pass. Since perks are not included in your pruchase, owners have nothing to ever sue over.

Personally I don't think that the reduce in perks caused any real damage to the value of ones contract. There was a slight dip in resale prices as people over reacted, but that corrected very quickly.

The value in DVC is in staying at DVC and that is something that can't be taken away.

 

[PinGirl]

As formDisney being too classy, well, I think that's just a misconception you need to put aside. DVD is a for profit business selling timeshares. Not special.

Yes - I agree with this!

IMO, you are not a good candidate for DVC or any timeshare. committing all of your future vacation money to DVC is not wise.
Good luck with your decision.

I am already an owner - so too late! I do vacation other places besides Disney - but thanks for your concern. We have enjoyed our stays and I am hanging on to my points. Just because I see that there are two levels of membership - does not mean I have not enjoyed my DVC stays.

So whatever hit has been made to the resale value has already happened.

Sorry to be such a downer, but this specific aspect of Disney's management of DVC makes me a little upset. I try to remind myself that other timeshare companies are massively worse, but that's not exactly a high bar to get over. And in the end, I did buy in, and I kinda wish I'd bought in several years ago. So apparently I'm drunk on Disney magic!

I think with the ROFR's and the forced Wait List as the prices go up - we are just now starting to see the hits to the resale market - also less available inventory as Disney buys back contracts.

Since Disney has control of their resale market with the ROFR's - they are able to make it a longer wait for the old resorts and raise the prices on the new resorts. Granted the new resorts are more expensive to build and should be higher point values.

You are not being a downer - luckily I did buy before all this started and no doubt there is great value in the resorts. If I was truly unhappy - I would be asking questions about selling not lamenting how to buy this time. We enjoy our vacations and the resorts.

 

[PinGirl]

What Disney took away from resale purchasers were a small set of perks. At any time they can take away perks from anyone they want to. For example they could say that only people buying VGF direct get a discount on an annual pass. Since perks are not included in your purchase, owners have nothing to ever sue over.
The value in DVC is in staying at DVC and that is something that can't be taken away.

It worries me a little when any company starts to take things away as over time the gap can become larger than it is now.

I find it disappointing - but maybe I like the one big happy family concept and with people on long wait lists for old resorts and higher prices for new - owning DVC becomes more elite and some will be less happy, others won't notice. Maybe the elite thing is the whole point.

But you are right - the value of staying "On Property" - is still there and I love that!

 

[dmunsil]

Since perks are not included in your pruchase, owners have nothing to ever sue over.

Hey, this is America! We can sue over anything!

Personally I don't think that the reduce in perks caused any real damage to the value of ones contract. There was a slight dip in resale prices as people over reacted, but that corrected very quickly.

It absolutely affects the resale value. It might not affect it by much, but it affects it. We see people posting on here all the time that they bought direct because they "might want to take a cruise with their points" and things like that. If a particular policy change makes people more likely to buy direct than resale, it lowers the prices of resale contracts. That's just basic economics.

The extra perks aren't worth much, but they're worth *something*. Most people don't know about renting, and even if they knew about it, many people wouldn't feel comfortable renting, especially given that there's a risk (however small) of the renter causing damage or leaving you on the hook for their room charges.

It's more the principle of the thing. DVC obviously wants there to be a resale market for contracts. There's no point to ROFR otherwise. Most timeshare companies just keep building new timeshares and selling them out, then selling the actual facilities to a management company that jacks the fees and reduces the maintenance, so the resale value of the contract falls quickly to zero. Disney can't do that, and presumably doesn't want to. Disney cannot have a whole bunch of timeshares on their property that are worth zero dollars on the open market.

So part of the attraction of buying a Disney timeshare is that we all understand that Disney has a really valuable brand to protect, and will try to make sure that they don't start being seen as a sleazy timeshare company. To me, it was a real shock that Disney decided to reduce perks for people buying resale. Before it happened, I would have confidently told you that Disney wouldn't do that kind of thing because it wasn't in their interests to damage their properties' resale value. But apparently they ran the numbers and decided a small impairment was OK. What's the highest impairment to resale they can add before it really starts to hurt their reputation? I guess I assume they can't go too much further, and like you I value the ability to stay at WDW more than any of the other stuff.

 

[dmunsil]

I think with the ROFR's and the forced Wait List as the prices go up - we are just now starting to see the hits to the resale market - also less available inventory as Disney buys back contracts.

The funny thing is that the ROFR clause helps to support the resale market. I was really happy that Disney has one; it means they are willing and able to put a floor on the price of resales. That's a very good thing for owners. Yes, it's annoying for buyers, but as far as I can tell Disney only ROFRs the cheap contracts. They don't ROFR all cheap contracts, but the lower the offer price, the higher the chance of being ROFRed.

As a buyer, ROFR is a little frustrating, but not that bad. As an owner, ROFR is a huge value, because it means Disney is make sure the value of your contract stays reasonably high.

Keep in mind that Disney's use of ROFR ebbs and flows. There have been times when Disney ROFRed no contracts at all, no matter how low they went, and that was not a good thing for owners who needed to sell. It was great for bargain hunters who wanted to buy in, but probably not so great for the overall market.

So ROFR is not really designed to be a disincentive to buy resale exactly. It's supposed to be a tool to make sure resale values don't go so low that they damage the brand. Now, the unnecessary delays in the resale process that are entirely Disney's choice, those are disincentives for sure.

And the wait list has basically nothing to do with resale. The wait list is just Disney trying to make buying a new resort more attractive. They need to sell out Grand Floridian; they've got millions of dollars of capital tied up in it. I'm sure there's a higher commission on sales of new resorts than of old resorts, because there's way more profit. They need to keep their top sales people happy. If it becomes too attractive to buy BWV, for example, then sales of new resorts slow down and sales staff start looking at jobs at other timeshare companies. Disney corporate starts asking, "Why isn't Grand Floridian selling better?"

It's a delicate balancing act. They want the resale market to not go too low. They want to sell the new resorts. If you're going to buy an older resort, they'd rather you bought direct rather than resale. They don't want DVC to cut too deeply into sales of regular hotel rooms. They have a lot of levers they can adjust to try to balance all of these goals. Frankly, I don't think we're going to see huge changes in the mix of perks between direct and resale in the future because the current restriction is working fine, but that's just my guess.