June 2022 Direct sales

[AvidDisReader]

Economist define recession as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, the first quarter of 2022 had a negative 1.4% growth. So, if the government reports that the second quarter that ended 6/30 was negative, we are in an official recession--something many economist are already saying. I bring this up to predict that all DVC sales (both direct and resale) are going to slow down significantly. The parks may stay busy as many of the vacations were booked months ago. It will be interesting to see how the parks look this fall. Any data on the DVC sales of RIV versus GFV will be interesting to follow in the face of a recession. I make no predictions.

 

[pianomanzano]

Economist define recession as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, the first quarter of 2022 had a negative 1.4% growth. So, if the government reports that the second quarter that ended 6/30 was negative, we are in an official recession--something many economist are already saying. I bring this up to predict that all DVC sales (both direct and resale) are going to slow down significantly. The parks may stay busy as many of the vacations were booked months ago. It will be interesting to see how the parks look this fall. Any data on the DVC sales of RIV versus GFV will be interesting to follow in the face of a recession. I make no predictions.

We've been on the fence on adding more direct RIV points given the great incentives right now, but I think ultimately we're going to hold off and see where the market goes. Hoping at the very least that incentives remain pretty good heading into the fall!

 

[jppeek]

I think Disney does still need to get a little more aggressive on offers to sell riviera with the resale restrictions though.

We just added on direct and For 200 points GFV was $190 PP and Riviera was $176. And that’s with 6 extra years remaining on Riviera. We almost did go the Riviera route but with a little one just decided the Monorail would be more valuable to us.

 

[I am Moana of Motunui]

What dvc fails to realize is that part of what has driven the direct sales price is a certain comfort in the ability to sell if necessary.

I agree 100% with this statement. The biggest factor for buying into DVC for me was that there is a healthy resale market and an exit strategy if needed, unlike with other timeshares.

 

[havoc315]

I think Disney does still need to get a little more aggressive on offers to sell riviera with the resale restrictions though.

We just added on direct and For 200 points GFV was $190 PP and Riviera was $176. And that’s with 6 extra years remaining on Riviera. We almost did go the Riviera route but with a little one just decided the Monorail would be more valuable to us.

If RIV sales = GFV sales with the $14 price differential, then I think they have priced it correctly. Arguably, if the price differential got a lot bigger, it would drive people like you to the Riviera route, hurting GFV sales.

There will always be some people who actively prefer the Epcot resort area over the monorail. But I suspect that there will always be a bit more demand for the monorail resorts. It's the same with cash resorts -- The monorail cash resorts demand the highest prices over the course of the year.

So for those that lean towards a monorail preference, $14 premium is a good trade-off. For those without a preference, or an Epcot area preference, save $14 and go to Riviera.

 

[Nabas]

Economist define recession as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, the first quarter of 2022 had a negative 1.4% growth. So, if the government reports that the second quarter that ended 6/30 was negative, we are in an official recession--something many economist are already saying. I bring this up to predict that all DVC sales (both direct and resale) are going to slow down significantly. The parks may stay busy as many of the vacations were booked months ago. It will be interesting to see how the parks look this fall. Any data on the DVC sales of RIV versus GFV will be interesting to follow in the face of a recession. I make no predictions.

Officially, the Great Recession lasted from December 2007 to June 2009, while DVC resale prices cratered in 2010 and 2011.

I think most sellers try to sell at current prices and are willing to wait a bit for the right buyer. However, if the downturn lasts long enough, those more urgent to sell overwhelm the market and drag down the price.

If this economic downturn is short, then DVC resale prices will decline only a little bit. But if there is a weak recovery, then we might very well see a steep decline in DVC resale prices in a year or two.

The short of it is, I have no idea if we are going to see a small price decline or a much more serious one like 2010 and 2011. It’s just to early to tell.

 

[tfc3rid]

I would imagine that as people are going to be having to make decisions about funds, they'll decide that this luxury isn't worth it for the moment. We're also seeing that the demand that was rampant late 2021 and early 2022 is waning a bit.

Personal example, I was able to get 7 nights at Riviera for February at the 7 month mark in a 1 BD standard... Couldn't even come close to that at 7 months in 2022. And not only that, but at 7 months, basically every other resort had 1BD available as well. Same week last year was slim at 7 months when I booked.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

We

Higher interest rates, inflation, fear of recession, and an overall malaise are all impacting interest in buying DVC at the moment. A few resorts might have ticked upward but the overall trend is downward.

View attachment 682115

We We’re starting to experience serious economic uncertainty, similar to what occurred during the last DVC resale price retreat.

Meanwhile, Disney is actively selling 3 DVC resorts, something it also was doing in 2008 & 2009 during the last DVC price retreat.

Available resale inventories are way up from 12 months ago.

All signs point to a DVC price retreat.

We

Higher interest rates, inflation, fear of recession, and an overall malaise are all impacting interest in buying DVC at the moment. A few resorts might have ticked upward but the overall trend is downward.

View attachment 682115

We’re starting to experience serious economic uncertainty, similar to what occurred during the last DVC resale price retreat.

Meanwhile, Disney is actively selling 3 DVC resorts, something it also was doing in 2008 & 2009 during the last DVC price retreat.

Available resale inventories are way up from 12 months ago.

All signs point to a DVC price retreat.

What portion would you think DVCRM has of the entire resale market? About 20-30%?

 

[Brian Noble]

If they disclose total point volume, you can figure it out by looking at the reports that DVC News re-publishes.

 

[BruinEd03]

Economist define recession as 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth, the first quarter of 2022 had a negative 1.4% growth. So, if the government reports that the second quarter that ended 6/30 was negative, we are in an official recession--something many economist are already saying. I bring this up to predict that all DVC sales (both direct and resale) are going to slow down significantly. The parks may stay busy as many of the vacations were booked months ago. It will be interesting to see how the parks look this fall. Any data on the DVC sales of RIV versus GFV will be interesting to follow in the face of a recession. I make no predictions.

Side note, but I recently learned that that’s not technically the definition for a recession. Really only the National Bureau of Economic Research can call a recession. They look at depth, diffusion and duration. In 2020 they didn’t wait to call it a recession before 2 quarters occurred. They also may not call it until a year after the recession has already occurred.

Here’s a good podcast on it: https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1107581150/recession-referees

 

[pianomanzano]

What portion would you think DVCRM has of the entire resale market? About 20-30%?

Don't they advertise having 60% of the market? Or is it 60% of listings?

 

[smmora]

Correct. We need to give it some time to see how new patterns emerge.
It's possible that the new resort studios face overwhelming demand from original owners, with their larger size, a real second bed, and arguably better location.
We don't know how it will play out. Check back in 2 years.

As a new VGF owner - I just did book a week in a Resort Studio

 

[AvidDisReader]

Side note, but I recently learned that that’s not technically the definition for a recession. Really only the National Bureau of Economic Research can call a recession. They look at depth, diffusion and duration. In 2020 they didn’t wait to call it a recession before 2 quarters occurred. They also may not call it until a year after the recession has already occurred.

Here’s a good podcast on it: https://www.npr.org/2022/06/24/1107581150/recession-referees

Not technically correct. They are one of many organizations that analyze data on the economy. The official definition of a recession is the one I used above. That does not mean there are many who disagree or use their own metrics. I am trying to stay away from any organization with a political motive on what is or is not a recession.

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

Don't they advertise having 60% of the market? Or is it 60% of listings?

I’m not sure but I’d be interested to know. I haven’t seen them say 60% but I know they claim to be the biggest. 60% seems high but it’s possible. I’m just trying to determine how much weight I can give these ROFR numbers.

 

[pianomanzano]

I’m not sure but I’d be interested to know. I haven’t seen them say 60% but I know they claim to be the biggest. 60% seems high but it’s possible. I’m just trying to determine how much weight I can give these ROFR numbers.

Yea it does seem high. They also claim something like 95% of contracts listed on their site get sold within 30 days, but there's currently more than 200 of some 400+ listings they have sitting on their site for more than 2 months. So maybe these were metrics that were true at one point in time or maybe they're just embellished?

EDIT: Looks like it may be done on an annual basis, at least for the 95% metric, based on their site.

 

[maui22]

Given the rate of sales, DVD seems to be repeating the mistakes of 2007-2009. They opted for significant expansion when it was clear the economy was slowing. Thought back then was to expand and let the sales offset slowdowns for the parks, etc. It didn't work out very well.

In 2009 Kidani, BLT, THV, and VGC all opened. That added well over 10 million points to the system. Sales would constantly say they wanted only 1-2 options to discuss with customers. Any more than that and customers eyes would glaze over and sales knew the possible buyer was walking away.

RIV and VGF2 seeing slowing in sales today.
VDH sales coming. That's likely to take some potential sales from WDW properties (hopefully not too many, but VGCsuffered back in 2009).
2024, Poly2 will be on sale. Likely that means 4 properties and 5-15 million points DVD will have to sell.

In 2009 DVD was in such panic, VGC could be bought for $85/pt and BLT for $87/pt. I suspect all of us would have loved to have been wise enough to buy VGC for $85/pt in 2009.

Will we see direct prices drop even lower as they repeat the over expansion?

 

[R2DWho]

Given the rate of sales, DVD seems to be repeating the mistakes of 2007-2009. They opted for significant expansion when it was clear the economy was slowing. Thought back then was to expand and let the sales offset slowdowns for the parks, etc. It didn't work out very well.

In 2009 Kidani, BLT, THV, and VGC all opened. That added well over 10 million points to the system. Sales would constantly say they wanted only 1-2 options to discuss with customers. Any more than that and customers eyes would glaze over and sales knew the possible buyer was walking away.

RIV and VGF2 seeing slowing in sales today.
VDH sales coming. That's likely to take some potential sales from WDW properties (hopefully not too many, but VGCsuffered back in 2009).
2024, Poly2 will be on sale. Likely that means 4 properties and 5-15 million points DVD will have to sell.

In 2009 DVD was in such panic, VGC could be bought for $85/pt and BLT for $87/pt. I suspect all of us would have loved to have been wise enough to buy VGC for $85/pt in 2009.

Will we see direct prices drop even lower as they repeat the over expansion?

This is interesting history to someone who is relatively new to DVC. Thanks for sharing.

 

[smmora]

Given the rate of sales, DVD seems to be repeating the mistakes of 2007-2009. They opted for significant expansion when it was clear the economy was slowing. Thought back then was to expand and let the sales offset slowdowns for the parks, etc. It didn't work out very well.

In 2009 Kidani, BLT, THV, and VGC all opened. That added well over 10 million points to the system. Sales would constantly say they wanted only 1-2 options to discuss with customers. Any more than that and customers eyes would glaze over and sales knew the possible buyer was walking away.

RIV and VGF2 seeing slowing in sales today.
VDH sales coming. That's likely to take some potential sales from WDW properties (hopefully not too many, but VGCsuffered back in 2009).
2024, Poly2 will be on sale. Likely that means 4 properties and 5-15 million points DVD will have to sell.

In 2009 DVD was in such panic, VGC could be bought for $85/pt and BLT for $87/pt. I suspect all of us would have loved to have been wise enough to buy VGC for $85/pt in 2009.

Will we see direct prices drop even lower as they repeat the over expansion?

omg .... i'd be in 7th heaven if they had to lower prices for the VDH release

 

[Royal Consort]

The days of dvc resale products selling for more than purchase price will soon be a thing of the past IMHO. The direction of chapeck and his crew will change this product. A great ceo sets a course for the future. Chapecks future devalues the product. Dvc as a product still has value in its legacy resorts. The future where resale is restricted to home resorts only significantly devalues the product. I think as new resorts come on the market with the same restrictions, dvc will find themselves holding the products longer. RIV is a beautiful resort and by all rights should be close to sold out or sold out by now. Restrictions have kept buyers away. I think the new poly building will be part of the original poly as dvc realizes the misstep with resale restrictions. I expect the next generation of dvc products to significantly devalue on resale. What dvc fails to realize is that part of what has driven the direct sales price is a certain comfort in the ability to sell if necessary. The new generation has significantly altered this. I think RIV on resale will fall below 100 pp. I agree with previous poster that many riv resale buyers already have other points to ise at other resorts or have direct riv points and will use the resale points and bank direct points for elsewhere if necessary.

Disney are masters of data. They don't make decisions without it. If the restrictions were shown to be the fundamental reason and they recognised they could shift RVA like hot cakes by removing them, they would. Why wait for Poly tower?? They wouldn't. Restrictions have kept some buyers away and it's the culture of these boards to reject them. That's fine but there's a tendency to overgeneralise the views from the boards to the general purchaser. Look at VGF: massive spike from addon members and then a precipitous drop. Selling slightly higher than RVA which has restrictions. I just don't think the average non-disboards punter cares.

The market will accommodate restricted properties on resale. Over time the legacy resorts will become squeezed and you will lose availability heading into 2042. The product will change and the market will change. You're just going to need to buy where you want to stay. People are already doing this. I went into DVC with attitude that I won't be able to use my points everywhere and bought where I want to be. They're not used outside home resort. I think that's the future of DVC resale.

 

[Sandisw]

Disney are masters of data. They don't make decisions without it. If the restrictions were shown to be the fundamental reason and they recognised they could shift RVA like hot cakes by removing them, they would. Why wait for Poly tower?? They wouldn't. Restrictions have kept some buyers away and it's the culture of these boards to reject them. That's fine but there's a tendency to overgeneralise the views from the boards to the general purchaser. Look at VGF: massive spike from addon members and then a precipitous drop. Selling slightly higher than RVA which has restrictions. I just don't think the average non-disboards punter cares.

The market will accommodate restricted properties on resale. Over time the legacy resorts will become squeezed and you will lose availability heading into 2042. The product will change and the market will change. You're just going to need to buy where you want to stay. People are already doing this. I went into DVC with attitude that I won't be able to use my points everywhere and bought where I want to be. They're not used outside home resort. I think that's the future of DVC resale.

I agree. The sales numbers for RIV have been severely impacted by the pandemic and there will never be a way to know for sure how much, given how strong sales were right before hand.

It do find it interesting that VGF only sold 73k points in June and yet it hasn’t been seen as a failure. Yet many months when RIV was at that level it was.. The message was it’s not selling well because of restrictions. It’s not getting to the normal 70% if sales, etc.

You nailed it that if the restrictions were an issue for DVD as much as some believe they are, they would have removed them.

And, when you have VGF and RIV selling in June right around the same, it tells you the market will adjust.

We did the same. We own RIV and VGF because we can stay at both of those and be happy. The SSR are sleep around and if I ever get to a point where I can’t use them to upgrade my RIV and VGF stays, I will sell.