June 2022 Direct sales

[KAT4DISNEY]

Looks like a decline again. But the gap between VGF and RIV is under 6k. So, they seem to be almost evenly split now.

I think if DVD is looking for something to stay the course with restrictions, this data is going to help them justify that move.

Regardless both those resorts combined did bring them over 130k in sales which isn’t too shabby given today’s economic climate.

Average contract size seems to be slightly larger for RIV around 190 over VGF which was closer to 175.

Sales at sold out resorts are pretty low but seem consistent among them.

https://dvcnews.com/dvc-program/fin...ect-dvc-sales-continue-to-soften-in-june-2022

In all honesty I do not believe there's much to be learned about resale restrictions in these sales. It would be just as easy to state that because VGF is mostly add ons then they DO make a difference to people who know the system. And that of course isn't necessarily why people are adding on at VGF but it's just as valid of conclusion without actually polling and tracking every single buyers reason for purchasing at a resort. I do not believe the typical "off the street" new buyer is told much if anything about the restrictions. And of course if they were most will agree they'd never sell anyway.

 

[Sandisw]

In all honesty I do not believe there's much to be learned about resale restrictions in these sales. It would be just as easy to state that because VGF is mostly add ons then they DO make a difference to people who know the system. And that of course isn't necessarily why people are adding on at VGF but it's just as valid of conclusion without actually polling and tracking every single buyers reason for purchasing at a resort. I do not believe the typical "off the street" new buyer is told much if anything about the restrictions. And of course if they were most will agree they'd never sell anyway.

I think what it tells Disney..if they want to stay the course with restrictions…that they can sell a restricted resort against a non restricted resort pretty similar with some decent pricing and incentives.

Obviously one month is just one month. But if things stay similar than that is all the justification DVD may need to keep them in place.

If VGF had continued to blow RIV out of the water, like it did the first few months, then it would force DVD into a different discussion with itself for the future.

Doesn’t mean they would change things. I believe they want to keep them and as long as they can find a way to make it sell even when selling something else, and can have data to support that, it makes the decision much easier for them.

 

[savvy101787]

I feel like BLT, PVB & VGF are always going to be special cases when it comes to DVC sales given their unique histories. It would have been really interesting to see how RIV stacked up against something like Reflections.

As Sandi mentioned, DVD has options to play around with if they want to test restrictions vs no restrictions on future hotels. While one month of data may not represent the full picture, it’s a data point that is likely piquing their interest.

 

[Brian Noble]

I think what it tells Disney..if they want to stay the course with restrictions…that they can sell a restricted resort against a non restricted resort pretty similar with some decent pricing and incentives.

I'm not sure this is all that important, because in not too much longer, it will be the case that there is no unrestricted resort in active sales (assuming that Poly 2 is a new association).

 

[Sandisw]

I'm not sure this is all that important, because in not too much longer, it will be the case that there is no unrestricted resort in active sales (assuming that Poly 2 is a new association).

I agree but this simply allows them to provide data to answer the question for those who think they have failed.

I definitely think they are here to stay but at least to have this type of result allows them cements their decision to play the long game.

Also, IMO, if they were still debating whether Poly tower should have them, this would seem a step in the right direction to keep them for that project

 

[Roughians_satchel]

I agree but this simply allows them to provide data to answer the question for those who think they have failed.

I definitely think they are here to stay but at least to have this type of result allows them cements their decision to play the long game.

Also, IMO, if they were still debating whether Poly tower should have them, this would seem a step in the right direction to keep them for that project

The difference with Poly2 is it's filling in a hole of room types that exist in Poly1. Restrictions don't seem to be as big a factor to new buyers, so I don't think they're bent on pushing them in the new tower. We just stayed last week in the bungalows. I talked to a couple of the DVC reps in the lobby, and for what it's worth, one of them (who was around at the time of AKV) think's the Poly2 will follow suit to how that was handled.

 

[Sandisw]

The difference with Poly2 is it's filling in a hole of room types that exist in Poly1. Restrictions don't seem to be as big a factor to new buyers, so I don't think they're bent on pushing them in the new tower. We just stayed last week in the bungalows. I talked to a couple of the DVC reps in the lobby, and for what it's worth, one of them (who was around at the time of AKV) think's the Poly2 will follow suit to how that was handled.

None of us know and the guide is just guessing (and when I was there in May, the people in the lobby at RIV would not say a thing and said that they are not allowed to speculate....my own guide said the same thing...because none of them have been given information) . But, new association or not, it will add the type of hotel rooms at Poly that are not there now. If they do not include them in the Poly tower, then it will mean that DVD has abandoned the idea and we will see them removed from RIV and future resorts.

IMO, I think that is highly unlikely. But, then again, who knows and DVD will do what they want or need to support sales down the line. If VDH has them, different coast or not, then it further supports its on the table for Poly tower.

There would be no need to hold that fact back if it was already decided to be part of PVB. All the language used so far points more to it not, or at the very least, being vague enough that one really doesn't know.

 

[Brian Noble]

they are not allowed to speculate

I think this is also due to Florida timeshare law. They have to avoid even hinting that current buyers will have access to this new thing until certain paperwork is filed with the state, IIRC.

I think this was partly behind the near-comical unwillingness of anyone in DVC to talk about the BLT tower even though it was right. there.

 

[DVCsloth]

I don't see any benefit to Disney to make this the same association. I understood why they did it with VGF, but Poly 2 I highly doubt it. Also, I think that people who love Polynesian would just add on to the new tower. I know I would consider it.

 

[Nabas]

I don't see any benefit to Disney to make this the same association. I understood why they did it with VGF, but Poly 2 I highly doubt it. Also, I think that people who love Polynesian would just add on to the new tower. I know I would consider it.

The benefit to Disney is if offering PVB to be in the same association will improve Poly Tower sales.

The VGF2 sales literature includes a lot of information about VGF1 rooms, presumably because Disney thought advertising VGF1 would help sell VGF2.

PVB has 2 things going for it:

1. A lot of Studio rooms. Studios are, by far, the most in-demand DVC rooms.
2. Bungalows. The bungalows are an impressive experience.

Advertising Studios and Bungalows could help Poly Tower DVC sales.

 

[pianomanzano]

The benefit to Disney is if offering PVB to be in the same association will improve Poly Tower sales.

The VGF2 sales literature includes a lot of information about VGF1 rooms, presumably because Disney thought advertising VGF1 would help sell VGF2.

PVB has 2 things going for it:

1. A lot of Studio rooms. Studios are, by far, the most in-demand DVC rooms.
2. Bungalows. The bungalows are an impressive experience.

Advertising Studios and Bungalows could help Poly Tower DVC sales.

As a non-PVB owner potentially interested in adding Poly Tower points, I would rather they not be in the same association. I have no interest in the bungalows, they're too point heavy for not being a grand villa and you have to deal with the noise and lack of privacy from the ferries running all day. I would assume the point charts for Poly Tower will already be on par with something like RIV and would not want them trying to reallocate bungalow points by making the new rooms higher cost. Plus, PVB studios are easily bookable at the 7 month mark for the times of the year that I travel.

 

[Sandisw]

As a non-PVB owner potentially interested in adding Poly Tower points, I would rather they not be in the same association. I have no interest in the bungalows, they're too point heavy for not being a grand villa and you have to deal with the noise and lack of privacy from the ferries running all day. I would assume the point charts for Poly Tower will already be on par with something like RIV and would not want them trying to reallocate bungalow points by making the new rooms higher cost. Plus, PVB studios are easily bookable at the 7 month mark for the times of the year that I travel.

This is us. We won't buy there if we have to now compete at 11 months with all those PVB points. So, it will be interesting to see what DVD decides. They have definitely used the rooms at VGF1 to help sell BPK...but I do believe the Poly tower....assuming it has all room sizes...will sell better without PVB, then BPK would have sold without VGF1.

It will be interesting! At least we may be about a year away now from knowing! I am going to assume that it should be revealed at least 6 months before sales happen, which, with an end of 2024 open date, that puts sales starting between Feb and April 2024?

 

[Nabas]

As a non-PVB owner potentially interested in adding Poly Tower points, I would rather they not be in the same association. I have no interest in the bungalows, they're too point heavy for not being a grand villa and you have to deal with the noise and lack of privacy from the ferries running all day. I would assume the point charts for Poly Tower will already be on par with something like RIV and would not want them trying to reallocate bungalow points by making the new rooms higher cost. Plus, PVB studios are easily bookable at the 7 month mark for the times of the year that I travel.

I understand where you are coming from, but VGF2 consists of nothing but Studios, yet VGF2 advertising includes several photos of VGF1 Grand Villas, which also are “point heavy”.

I’m not sure if you have ever stayed in a bungalow, but by being right on the Seven Seas Lagoon with a view of the Magic Kingdom and easy access to the Monorail, they really are a unique experience at WDW.

Sometimes advertising is not about what you can afford - it’s about selling you what you can afford based on a dream that you might never afford.

 

[pianomanzano]

I understand where you are coming from, but VGF2 consists of nothing but Studios, yet VGF2 advertising includes several photos of VGF1 Grand Villas, which also are “point heavy”.

I’m not sure if you have ever stayed in a bungalow, but by being right on the Seven Seas Lagoon with a view of the Magic Kingdom and easy access to the Monorail, they really are a unique experience at WDW.

Sometimes advertising is not about what you can afford - it’s about selling you what you can afford based on a dream that you might never afford.

Not disagreeing with you at all, just giving my perspective as a potential Poly Tower buyer. I will say that a reason why we purchased VGF1 resale when VGF2 direct started was because they were in the same association (which helped bring the price of VGF1 way down at the start of VGF2). Another reason why we purchased was having an 11-month booking window for the 1BR and 2BR (that we're more likely to book), which we knew would probably be impossible as a non-VGF owner with all the VGF2 points coming online. So from my perspective, with Poly potentially being the opposite (existing studios with adding on 1BRS and 2BRs) as VGF, I'd rather they not be the same association. I know I'm not the average potential customer that stays mostly in studios.

I haven't stayed at a Poly bungalow, but have toured it and wasn't impressed. There's theme park view rooms at other locations that I'd rather stay at, like the BLT grand villa. I'd rather rent out points and stay at an actual bungalow in a more exotic location where I can actually go out and take a dip/snorkel in the surrounding water, have a bigger personal pool, and better privacy for the same price. We did a 3 night stay in a bungalow at an all-inclusive in the Maldives as part of our honeymoon. Looking at back at how much we paid for it, it's about the equivalent of renting out points for 1 night in a Poly bungalow during the medium point seasons. That's the beauty of DVC though, lots of different resorts/room types for everyone!

 

[DVCsloth]

The benefit to Disney is if offering PVB to be in the same association will improve Poly Tower sales.

The VGF2 sales literature includes a lot of information about VGF1 rooms, presumably because Disney thought advertising VGF1 would help sell VGF2.

PVB has 2 things going for it:

1. A lot of Studio rooms. Studios are, by far, the most in-demand DVC rooms.
2. Bungalows. The bungalows are an impressive experience.

Advertising Studios and Bungalows could help Poly Tower DVC sales.

Pretty sure Poly studios and bungalows are available at 7 months most of the year. I don't think it will help sales if current owners can book at 11 months. If someone was considering buying new and oh by the way, don't worry about the millions of points already out there that can book the same as your brand-new purchase.

 

[Nabas]

Pretty sure Poly studios and bungalows are available at 7 months most of the year. I don't think it will help sales if current owners can book at 11 months. If someone was considering buying new and oh by the way, don't worry about the millions of points already out there that can book the same as your brand-new purchase.

It doesn’t matter (much) what’s available at 7 months. This is advertising. IF Disney decides to put the 2 in the same association, it’s because they think advertising 11-month availability of Studios and Bungalows will help Poly Tower sales.

Beyond this, IF the 2 are in the same association, then we can expect future PVB booking patterns to change, especially if Poly Tower is heavily one and two bedrooms.

I’m not saying the two will be in the same association. I’m saying they will be IF Disney marketing thinks this will help Poly Tower sales.

 

[hglenn]

Do you guys think the room mix at PVB2 will determine if it'll be same association or not if that info is available before the association announcement? Do you think a tower without studios will:
1. indicate same association?
2. sell well if separate association?

 

[hglenn]

Yikes... direct promos went way down... I mean, previous promos were pretty good, but still.... will be so interesting to see what happens with July/Aug sales.

 

[Matty B13]

Do you guys think the room mix at PVB2 will determine if it'll be same association or not if that info is available before the association announcement? Do you think a tower without studios will:
1. indicate same association?
2. sell well if separate association?

DVC will only do what is in DVC's best interest, always remember this. I've been a member since 2016 (just after the first set of restrictions) and I can't think of one decision that has really benefited members that didn't have a price on it.

 

[hglenn]

DVC will only do what is in DVC's best interest, always remember this. I've been a member since 2016 (just after the first set of restrictions) and I can't think of one decision that has really benefited members that didn't have a price on it.

Yea, I get it. my question was really more around opinions and conversation. I don't see myself ever owning there but I think it's still fun to discuss the various takes and possibilities...