Is resale inventory going down or just the site I look at most?

[ocdb8r1]

I have been tracking inventory on DVCforless.com and dvcrofr.com since late March. High inventory on dvcforless was 2000 listings on 3/28. The low inventory was 7/9 at 1335. For individual resorts (I am not tracking all of them) CCR has had the greatest reduction at 53% followed by BLT 44%, AKV and SSR are down about 34%.

Very interesting. I never bothered to track the individual resort volume, beyond eyeing VGC during it's post VDH rollercoaster. What you mention doesn't surprise me. I think CCR and BLT are screaming deals right now. Aside from the pure economics (nothing beats them right now on an all in "cost per point, per year" including annual dues other than subsidized Aulani) AND they are longer contracts AND there are some nice point chart sweet spots (CCR is the best point chart you can get for a post SSR developed resort; BLT standard views are a nice option and the Lake view GVs are a down right STEAL for anything near MK, much less on the monorail).

 

[Chili327]

I think CCR and BLT are screaming deals right now. Aside from the pure economics (nothing beats them right now on an all in "cost per point, per year" including annual dues other than subsidized Aulani) AND they are longer contracts AND there are some nice point chart sweet spots (CCR is the best point chart you can get for a post SSR developed resort; BLT standard views are a nice option and the Lake view GVs are a down right STEAL for anything near MK, much less on the monorail).

And Aulani Sub isn't very far behind in dues anyway, I bet it passes both CCV & BLT in the next couple years.

 

[CastAStone]

The peak Covid contract nadir was about 250-300 contracts across all sites, that persisted from about April or so of 2021 to early July. The entire market ran out of contracts for *Animal Kingdom Villas*

The number available then climbed steadily; by August there were 650, by November over 1000, by Feb 2022 over 1500, and by May of 22 over 2100 - about 8X as many as a year earlier.

Interestingly, prices continued to increase through the initial part of the climb; they started to flatten around 1000 contracts for sale and decline noticeably with 2000 contracts for sale.

We spent about 2 years with between 1800-2700 contracts for sale, with it ebbing and flowing seasonally. Prices fell the whole time.

Earlier this year a clear trend of fewer contracts coming available became clear, and inventories have fallen more than can be explained by seasonality. Prices have come closer to stabilizing on most resorts as well, and even started to climb on a few.

I don’t know what the future looks like, but if I had decided to buy, I’d be trying to be a little more aggressive about making offers, because I think the odds that prices increase in the next 12 months are basically 50-50 now, whereas for the last 2 years I’d have said 90% chance of falling.

 

[atthebeachclub]

The peak Covid contract nadir was about 250-300 contracts across all sites, that persisted from about April or so of 2021 to early July. The entire market ran out of contracts for *Animal Kingdom Villas*

The number available then climbed steadily; by August there were 650, by November over 1000, by Feb 2022 over 1500, and by May of 22 over 2100 - about 8X as many as a year earlier.

Interestingly, prices continued to increase through the initial part of the climb; they started to flatten around 1000 contracts for sale and decline noticeably with 2000 contracts for sale.

We spent about 2 years with between 1800-2700 contracts for sale, with it ebbing and flowing seasonally. Prices fell the whole time.

Earlier this year a clear trend of fewer contracts coming available became clear, and inventories have fallen more than can be explained by seasonality. Prices have come closer to stabilizing on most resorts as well, and even started to climb on a few.

I don’t know what the future looks like, but if I had decided to buy, I’d be trying to be a little more aggressive about making offers, because I think the odds that prices increase in the next 12 months are basically 50-50 now, whereas for the last 2 years I’d have said 90% chance of falling.

I think there is a clear relationship between the stock market and the resale DVC market. Likely the direct DVC market as well. And this is morbid, but I have to wonder if some of the older owners died during pre-vaccine Covid times, releasing more contracts and creating a bit of a glut.

 

[CourtneyAshley]

The peak Covid contract nadir was about 250-300 contracts across all sites, that persisted from about April or so of 2021 to early July. The entire market ran out of contracts for *Animal Kingdom Villas*

The number available then climbed steadily; by August there were 650, by November over 1000, by Feb 2022 over 1500, and by May of 22 over 2100 - about 8X as many as a year earlier.

Interestingly, prices continued to increase through the initial part of the climb; they started to flatten around 1000 contracts for sale and decline noticeably with 2000 contracts for sale.

We spent about 2 years with between 1800-2700 contracts for sale, with it ebbing and flowing seasonally. Prices fell the whole time.

Earlier this year a clear trend of fewer contracts coming available became clear, and inventories have fallen more than can be explained by seasonality. Prices have come closer to stabilizing on most resorts as well, and even started to climb on a few.

I don’t know what the future looks like, but if I had decided to buy, I’d be trying to be a little more aggressive about making offers, because I think the odds that prices increase in the next 12 months are basically 50-50 now, whereas for the last 2 years I’d have said 90% chance of falling.

Well then it looks like i did pick good time to buy in. I finally pulled the trigger almost 2 months ago still waiting on my points but of course i cannot stop looking at contracts.

 

[CastAStone]

I think there is a clear relationship between the stock market and the resale DVC market. Likely the direct DVC market as well. And this is morbid, but I have to wonder if some of the older owners died during pre-vaccine Covid times, releasing more contracts and creating a bit of a glut.

I’m curious where you see relationship. The stock market has been basically up up up since the vaccines were announced but DVC is mostly gone down down down since mid 2021.

 

[atthebeachclub]

July 2021 through fall 2023 was mostly in the doldrums for the total stock market index; either no growth or negative growth, without sustained growth for any upswings. Only since fall 2023 has the rate of change for that index been strongly positive. Big sustained upticks have mostly occurred this year.

I’m curious where you see relationship. The stock market has been basically up up up since the vaccines were announced but DVC is mostly gone down down down since mid 2021.

 

[AstroBlasters]

July 2021 through fall 2023 was mostly in the doldrums for the total stock market index; either no growth or negative growth, without sustained growth for any upswings. Only since fall 2023 has the rate of change for that index been strongly positive. Big sustained upticks have mostly occurred this year.

It might also correlate with the FL governor dropping his anti-Disney crusade….

 

[atthebeachclub]

It might also correlate with the FL governor dropping his anti-Disney crusade….

That certainly couldn’t have hurt. People buy based partially on feeling and when they don’t feel as threatened by the market conditions or some anti-Disney threats, they probably will think this might be a better long term investment (obviously not a true investment but you get my drift).

 

[VGCgroupie]

And Aulani Sub isn't very far behind in dues anyway, I bet it passes both CCV & BLT in the next couple years.

Im curious what others think about this. My gut says BLT wont be staying this low. But I am brand new here and Im possibly totally wrong.

 

[VGCgroupie]

I don’t know what the future looks like, but if I had decided to buy, I’d be trying to be a little more aggressive about making offers, because I think the odds that prices increase in the next 12 months are basically 50-50 now, whereas for the last 2 years I’d have said 90% chance of falling.

I feel like you just gave me a hug and told me its okay that I made an offer on my 3rd contract yesterday.

 

[CastAStone]

Im curious what others think about this. My gut says BLT wont be staying this low. But I am brand new here and Im possibly totally wrong.

BLT is a tower which has pros and cons. There’s virtually no landscaping or common areas to maintain compared to most of the other DVCs. The rooms heat and cool one another which would save on utilities*. They don’t have to pay for multiple bus stops or as much security. Housekeeping isn’t spending time going building to building.

OTOH refurbishments in towers are MUCH more expensive. Exterior work requires cranes, not scaffolding and ladders. HVAC maintenance is more complicated. Plumbing problems are more disastrous.

There’s a reason most hotels are a few stories tall and no taller. According to a NPR segment I heard several years ago, peak hotel efficiency is between 3 and 5 floors, depending on codes, state worker safety laws, etc.

All that said I see no real reason to think BLT would be any more at risk of increasing costs than any other resort. Those things I listed above should all be known already. It really depends what costs increase more than others in the future. BLT is more susceptible to construction/renovation costs; a resort like SSR is more susceptible to the cost of daily labor.



*the mostly glass exterior in the Florida sun may negate this benefit.

 

[CastAStone]

I feel like you just gave me a hug and told me its okay that I made an offer on my 3rd contract yesterday.

As long as you have the money to spare,

 

[MerlinandtheMouse]

BLT is a tower which has pros and cons. There’s virtually no landscaping or common areas to maintain compared to most of the other DVCs. The rooms heat and cool one another which would save on utilities*. They don’t have to pay for multiple bus stops or as much security. Housekeeping isn’t spending time going building to building.

OTOH refurbishments in towers are MUCH more expensive. Exterior work requires cranes, not scaffolding and ladders. HVAC maintenance is more complicated. Plumbing problems are more disastrous.

There’s a reason most hotels are a few stories tall and no taller. According to a NPR segment I heard several years ago, peak hotel efficiency is between 3 and 5 floors, depending on codes, state worker safety laws, etc.

All that said I see no real reason to think BLT would be any more at risk of increasing costs than any other resort. Those things I listed above should all be known already. It really depends what costs increase more than others in the future. BLT is more susceptible to construction/renovation costs; a resort like SSR is more susceptible to the cost of daily labor.



*the mostly glass exterior in the Florida sun may negate this benefit.

I read once that because BLT was built during the recession many of the finishings and construction were cut back on/cheap. I could be completely wrong about this, cause what do I know really, (and assuming they don’t skimp on the new decor and material) but I imagine a full refurbishment, with higher end materials and with todays much more expensive labor market, it might effect the dues for the next year or two a bit more than the other resorts. It maybe not a long term change but I can see a healthy increase in the short term….although I’m not sure if future dues reflect current spending costs or if the refurbishment cost has already been paid for, so it might not matter

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I’m curious where you see relationship. The stock market has been basically up up up since the vaccines were announced but DVC is mostly gone down down down since mid 2021.

I’m too busy (lazy) to run these charts myself, but at a high level the DVC market seems to be more correlated with crypto/meme stock/everything bubbles fueled by cheap interest rates and easy monetary policy. You could certainly see how someone who made 10x on magic beans would be open to converting some of it into magical timeshares and then in 2021 the monthly payments were much cheaper for those who were financing (either through DVC market lenders or by pulling a HELOC or other ways to tap equity in your home).

 

[CastAStone]

I’m too busy (lazy) to run these charts myself, but at a high level the DVC market seems to be more correlated with crypto/meme stock/everything bubbles fueled by cheap interest rates and easy monetary policy. You could certainly see how someone who made 10x on magic beans would be open to converting some of it into magical timeshares and then in 2021 the monthly payments were much cheaper for those who were financing (either through DVC market lenders or by pulling a HELOC or other ways to tap equity in your home).

Magic beans!

 

[atthebeachclub]

I’m too busy (lazy) to run these charts myself, but at a high level the DVC market seems to be more correlated with crypto/meme stock/everything bubbles fueled by cheap interest rates and easy monetary policy. You could certainly see how someone who made 10x on magic beans would be open to converting some of it into magical timeshares and then in 2021 the monthly payments were much cheaper for those who were financing (either through DVC market lenders or by pulling a HELOC or other ways to tap equity in your home).

Oh, interesting. I definitely have wondered if maybe some people money launder through DVC. It seems even less regulated than the housing market, which seems pretty Wild West if not using a lender.

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

Oh, interesting. I definitely have wondered if maybe some people money launder through DVC. It seems even less regulated than the housing market, which seems pretty Wild West if not using a lender.

For the record, while I do think there is a variety of shadiness going on in the DVC resale market, up until this very moment I did not think it was a vector for money laundering—though I don’t think I ever had to provide any sort of ID for the FL properties. The question is just how many people are trying to launder money into DCL cruises, lol.

I know crypto is used for money laundering and facilitating organized crime and more recently came to believe that it might be what’s driving some of the meme stock activity (or at least plowing into quasi-organic meme stock madness)…maybe DVC is the next frontier…in which case, better cash out my high quality index funds to rush into more VGF.

 

[atthebeachclub]

For the record, while I do think there is a variety of shadiness going on in the DVC resale market, up until this very moment I did not think it was a vector for money laundering—though I don’t think I ever had to provide any sort of ID for the FL properties. The question is just how many people are trying to launder money into DCL cruises, lol.

I know crypto is used for money laundering and facilitating organized crime and more recently came to believe that it might be what’s driving some of the meme stock activity (or at least plowing into quasi-organic meme stock madness)…maybe DVC is the next frontier…in which case, better cash out my high quality index funds to rush into more VGF.

VTI, VTSAX, and VGF…it has a nice ring to it!

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

VTI, VTSAX, and VGF…it has a nice ring to it!

May as well throw VUSXX, VLU, VGC, and VXF on that list of extremely responsible investments as well.