I didn't read the entire thread so forgive me if there are duplicate thoughts here...
You are so me 10+ years ago. I am a Disney nut (I even wanted to be an animator when I grew up... still do actually haha) and my now hubby and I had these discussions multiple times over. I think the question about it being a good investment... the simple answer is yes, most likely. The flip side to that is that it is also a risk. I would caution you for the same reason that we have held out so long.
You mention children in your future. You didn't indicate though if you have student loans or a house. While I understand the rationale that finances can go the wrong way for anyone at any point in time, in your case you are pretty much guaranteed to move into a more expensive time in your life simple by adding kids into the equation. One of our big factors in deciding to wait was we have what I not so lovingly refer to as "our three mortgages" (daycare, student loans and our actual mortgage). I was shocked how much daycare cost us and even with just one kid in it now, it is still a substantial part of our monthly budget. It is also mostly paid with taxable income because daycare tax breaks are limited. Your mileage will vary depending on cost of living in your area but obvious point is kids=expensive. I would definitely research and factor in future kid costs into your long term budget.
One of the good things about
DVC is that your annual dues 5 years from now are going to be the same regardless of whether you purchase now or in 5 years. Yes, the initial buy in price is almost certainly going to go up but that is a fraction of the cost, especially when considering a 50 year deed. To throw some numbers at you... 100 points at Riviera. If you keep it the length of the contract, assuming an average 4.51% annual dues increase (which my understanding is the average), the life of the contract costs you $167k, with 18.8k of that being the initial buy in price (these are last years numbers). This does not factor in interest on a loan.
Say you buy 100 points Riviera for $19,500 with 20% down and a 10% interest rate over 10 years (my understanding is that is the best deal available through Disney). Your loan will be for ~$15.5k and over 10 years you will pay over $9k in interest. So $28,500 for those 100 points. That is up 195/point to 285/point. If you pay it off in 4 years through a consistent extra payment (my calculator is showing $650/mo instead of ~$200/mo) your total interest paid drops down to $4.1k. Assuming you are paying extra, in four years will Disneys cost per point go up ~$40 to break even on that interest? Certainly possible, especially if you are not buying the featured resort. Now if you are paying cash for deluxe resorts, I would venture to guess that you will spend more money that way than financing. How that compares to paying cash for value/moderates I am not sure since we do not stay there but I do know that in the calculators I have run, if you rent points (assuming inflation on rental point prices since they will also go up), it is about an 8 years breakeven point for me to buy DVC versus rent points (not factoring in any financing).
Without knowing financial details I would suggest either renting for the next few vacations while you settle into the next phase of your life, buying resale if you are determined to buy now, or as someone else suggested, practice saving for a year or two and then buy with less or no financing.
I think everyone has specific circumstances that make it a good or a bad buy. The best thing you can do is what you are doing now... researching and going into it with full knowledge of what you are committing to. Good luck with your researching!
