You’re forgetting the fact that in order to trade into a resort, people usually have to trade out thus with resale at Riviera they are stuck and will be booking at 11 months to get something leaving folks like us who like to book at 7 months struggling to get in.
Not forgetting at all.
It’s a question of numbers. The overwhelming majority of Riviera owners are direct, given it’s only 6 years in. So the vast majority, likely 90-95%+, are fully eligible to trade in and out.
On the other hand, older resorts have a much higher proportion of resale owners. I can’t really take an educated guess, but solely for illustration purposes:
If 95% of Riviera owners are eligible to trade out, but only 50% of non-Riviera
DVC owners can trade in, that will create a more favorable 7 month window.
Over time, of course, the number of Riviera resale owners will increase—- but by the time the numbers get really significant, by then all resorts will be heavily restricted for resale. Even the original resorts: For example, a BLT owner in 2045, likely will only be able to use their points at about 8 resorts, while there will be 10-15 resorts where they can’t use their points.
In other words, by the time there are a really significant number of resale owners, all the resorts will have the same issue. In the end, the biggest factor is the percentage of owners that are resale.