I have many counter-intuitive opinions....
So... here they are...
I don't think resale restrictions matter too much with
DVC.... You're staying on property no matter what... I would be comfortable, for the right price, paying for a DVC RIV Resale Contract, which is a great bargain.
RIV has the unfortunate combination of a terrible points chart AND resale restrictions. For example, the room category thing was nothing but a money grab in my view, and even the standard
points charts are the most aggressive for a non-monorail MK property... The skyliner does add tremendous convenience, when running, and especially for those in strollers... but back to the point....
So, while I can use my VGF points to stay at OKW for "less money" than OKW owners can use their OKW points at VGF, RIV offers no such respite. So you need many more points to have the same vacation at RIV than you could with an unrestricted resort where - theoretically - if you wanted a 2 BR or GV you could stay somewhere like OKW or SSR where the points are more favorable.
I also think that, if it is true that that DVC owners hold their contracts on average for about 10 years, we will see many more resale contracts enter the system over time. The 11 month window will get much more aggressive I feel, since the "less desirable" resorts can't relieve the pressure of folks getting their bookings... (though I think OKW is one of the most desirable resorts personally)... Plus, at 7 months, RIV resale owners will be competing with anyone else who has direct or grandfathered points... I'd imagine 6 month availability at RIV will be quite terrible.
I guess where I land is a resale RIV Favorite Week contract would probably be my best bet if I were buying... I'd probably buy a week I knew I could go every year, pay the extra point premium and be very happy with it for the right price....
Which I do think will continue to tank...
Which shouldn't matter, because I view the initial purchase price as a sunk cost...