IF I were shopping for resale RIV…

[atthebeachclub]

I can’t imagine that Disney would let it get that low once it sells out. Maybe I’m wrong, but Riviera seems to be the resort that people love to hate until they try it. Then a portion of those people want it. Restrictions might make it more likely that they snag any contract below a certain threshold and then just turn around sell direct to people wanting all access.

I don’t think Disney does ROFR to support the resale price. I think ROFR is done for the purpose of reselling points.

 

[jolynne28]

I understand what y'all are saying, but I also feel like restrictions were done to encourage direct. If you let the gulf between resale and direct at restricted resorts get too wide, you run the risk of people not being able to justify the price difference. Yes, flexibility is nice, but loving one resort and always feeling happy/relaxed there is also really nice.

 

[Girlstar30]

I understand what y'all are saying, but I also feel like restrictions were done to encourage direct. If you let the gulf between resale and direct at restricted resorts get too wide, you run the risk of people not being able to justify the price difference. Yes, flexibility is nice, but loving one resort and always feeling happy/relaxed there is also really nice.

I agree with this too if Riv went down to $80 a point who in their right mind would buy direct?? And does it make sense for a resort like Riv to be on par with with Saratoga price point? Sure it has resale restrictions, but people can't stay there unless they buy direct or take on the restrictions. Let's be real, the only reason most people end up buying direct is access to all the resorts and future. People that aren't going to have access to riv are going to buy one way or the other if they like it.... Direct is going to be all the more expensive once riv sells out... But we'll see...

 

[Brian Noble]

if Riv went down to $80 a point who in their right mind would buy direct??

The answer is: someone who wanted RIV as a home resort; to use the points to stay at many DVC resorts, rather than just RIV; and places a high value on that. And, this might generate noticeable "post sell-out" demand for direct points at RIV.

ROFR is not used to prop up resale prices. Disney has been content to let prices fall, and by a lot, during e.g. the Great Recession. That's partly because the typical sales prospect has no idea that resale exists or what it might cost. And, that's not surprising, becayse that's pretty much how every timeshare is sold---and almost all of them have a much higher spread between developer and secondary market prices.

 

[Girlstar30]

The answer is: someone who wanted RIV as a home resort; to use the points to stay at many DVC resorts, rather than just RIV; and places a high value on that. And, this might generate noticeable "post sell-out" demand for direct points at RIV.

ROFR is not used to prop up resale prices. Disney has been content to let prices fall, and by a lot, during e.g. the Great Recession. That's partly because the typical sales prospect has no idea that resale exists or what it might cost. And, that's not surprising, becayse that's pretty much how every timeshare is sold---and almost all of them have a much higher spread between developer and secondary market prices.

I feel like most people are going to go to one of the resorts where the incentives are at for direct if it comes down to very high prices or resale. At least that's what I did. Baylake is my favorite but I wasn't about to pay $44k for that. Pretty soon there will be many resorts with resale restrictions for sale with incentives if not all and this will be the norm, will they all drop to such low prices on resale? Why would riviera be the only one to be so low? That's probably why bcv and bwv are still going strong on resale when I personally don't think those prices are justified... people are paying the high resale prices cuz theyre popular and well liked, riviera is a popular one and def one of the most luxurious. So I think riv resale prices will stay higher for the long contract and the cheaper price than direct. It will be interesting to see what happens, I would def love to be wrong and buy riv for $80 pp but so would many others at that price and then price go up..

 

[DVCsloth]

This illustrates how people value restrictions/benefits differently... An owner who owns RIV direct looking to add on will likely be willing to pay more for a resale contract than someone who doesn't currently own there but can book it at 7 months (we fall in this category). And an non-owner looking to be a first-time buyer, may be more willing to buy direct to get the flexibility and DVC-Y benefits.

I'm personally also of the opinion that resale prices should stabilize sub-$80, just give it another 5 years. It may or may not get there, but I definitely wouldn't pay more for a resale contract I could only use at a single resort. So at current prices, I'm not buying resale and given where I think they are headed, I'm not buying direct. It's also got substantially higher dues than solid unrestricted resorts like BLT, PBV and VGF, and that justifies a lower resale price, as we see with other resorts.

Wouldn't all of the resorts go down in value quite a lot if Riviera was selling for sub-$80? I would tend to think that by that time Riviera would have gone up instead of down.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Wouldn't all of the resorts go down in value quite a lot if Riviera was selling for sub-$80? I would tend to think that by that time Riviera would have gone up instead of down.

It depends entirely on how much demand there is for points that only allow the owner to book exclusively at Riviera and how many sellers of those points exist. Riviera is not comparable to other resorts currently selling resale because of the restrictions.

We really don’t know the future here but I happen to believe the resale prices for restricted resorts and non-restricted resorts will likely not move closely in sync with each other.

 

[Girlstar30]

It depends entirely on how much demand there is for points that only allow the owner to book exclusively at Riviera and how many sellers of those points exist. Riviera is not comparable to other resorts currently selling resale because of the restrictions.

We really don’t know the future here but I happen to believe the resale prices for restricted resorts and non-restricted resorts will likely not move closely in sync with each other.

I see your point here too because I would never buy a resort resale that only has access to one hotel unless I REALLY loved it then a small contract perhaps. I thought about Riv resale then quickly changed my mind because of this... But if thats people's only choice in the future to access these hotels at affordable prices who knows what people will rationalize...

 

[DanCali]

ROFR is not used to prop up resale prices. Disney has been content to let prices fall, and by a lot, during e.g. the Great Recession. That's partly because the typical sales prospect has no idea that resale exists or what it might cost. And, that's not surprising, becayse that's pretty much how every timeshare is sold---and almost all of them have a much higher spread between developer and secondary market prices.

Case in point for the points above:

If I'm not mistaken Marriott currently sells points for a rack rate of $19.91/pt (often with some 20% discount, so say $16/pt). They may also throw in some nice amount of one time use Bonvoy hotel points and do some fuzzy math around their value.

Based on reports, resale prices of $3+ per point are usually passing rofr (and buyer pays an extra $3/pt per resale point to "activate" them). Once activated, the resale points are completely unrestricted and identical to retail points.

MVC will often buy the points via rofr at $2-$3 and sell them for $16-$19. Here's how profitable that can be (albeit also note the huge sales marketing costs compared to the cost of the inventory itself):




(Disclaimer: this is by no means an endorsement to buy any stocks/securities!)


So an informed buyer might say - why pay $16-$19 when you can pay $6 all-in? Why pay $16-$19 for something that's barely worth $3 if you try to sell it?

And yet, in the company's earnings release this week, they are projecting to sell ~$1.9 billion in contract sales in 2025 (this is just a part of total revenues, which also include management fees, exchange fees, rental income, and the financing business). All that with an identical resale product that can be bought at a 60%-70% discount even after the "activation fee" that doubles the resale cost...

Given this, there's probably no reason to DVC to prop up resale prices of restricted resorts in order to convince a minority of informed buyers to buy direct. They can probably make a bigger profit on the typically uninformed buyers when buying cheaper inventory via ROFR. For the informed buyers - maybe a points washing program is in order!

 

[atthebeachclub]

I see your point here too because I would never buy a resort resale that only has access to one hotel unless I REALLY loved it then a small contract perhaps. I thought about Riv resale then quickly changed my mind because of this... But if thats people's only choice in the future to access these hotels at affordable prices who knows what people will rationalize...

All it would really take is for DVC to open another Epcot-near resort with a longer expiry that is slightly fancier, and it would likely impact resale Riviera demand for the worse.

They won’t do that right now because it is in active sales. But they could do it in the future.

 

[Girlstar30]

All it would really take is for DVC to open another Epcot-near resort with a longer expiry that is slightly fancier, and it would likely impact resale Riviera demand for the worse.

They won’t do that right now because it is in active sales. But they could do it in the future.

True I mean they could do this once bcv and bwv expire too and then RIP riv but for now I think we good

 

[DanCali]

Wouldn't all of the resorts go down in value quite a lot if Riviera was selling for sub-$80? I would tend to think that by that time Riviera would have gone up instead of down.

We really don’t know the future here but I happen to believe the resale prices for restricted resorts and non-restricted resorts will likely not move closely in sync with each other.

I agree with @atthebeachclub - I believe that over time (say post 2042) you'll have two groups of resorts, the "unrestricted group" and "restricted group", with the latter selling at a substantial discount to the former on the resale market.

Resale contracts at AKV, BLT, CCV, VGC AUL, VGF, OKWe, PVB (and SSR to a lesser extent given the 2054 expiration) will still have the ability to trade between 8-9 resorts. The rest, if resale restrictions continue, will be 1-resort contracts on the resale market. I argue most would prefer the flexibility over the restrictions. And that preference will be reflected in the resale price/value. (I know there are tax issues etc but...) the type of disparity in resale prices we see today between VGC and VDH may be a preview of the WDW situation in 10-15 years.

Once all those unrestricted resorts expire in the 2060s (probably after I expire), or as that approaches, the norm will likely be just much lower resale values, like other timeshares out there.

 

[AstroBlasters]

All it would really take is for DVC to open another Epcot-near resort with a longer expiry that is slightly fancier, and it would likely impact resale Riviera demand for the worse.

They won’t do that right now because it is in active sales. But they could do it in the future.

Yacht Club DVC….

 

[Girlstar30]

Case in point for the points above:

If I'm not mistaken Marriott currently sells points for a rack rate of $19.91/pt (often with some 20% discount, so say $16/pt). They may also throw in some nice amount of one time use Bonvoy hotel points and do some fuzzy math around their value.

Based on reports, resale prices of $3+ per point are usually passing rofr (and buyer pays an extra $3/pt per resale point to "activate" them). Once activated, the resale points are completely unrestricted and identical to retail points.

MVC will often buy the points via rofr at $2-$3 and sell them for $16-$19. Here's how profitable that can be (albeit also note the huge sales marketing costs compared to the cost of the inventory itself):


View attachment 942659

(Disclaimer: this is by no means an endorsement to buy any stocks/securities!)


So an informed buyer might say - why pay $16-$19 when you can pay $6 all-in? Why pay $16-$19 for something that's barely worth $3 if you try to sell it?

And yet, in the company's earnings release this week, they are projecting to sell ~$1.9 billion in contract sales in 2025 (this is just a part of total revenues, which also include management fees, exchange fees, rental income, and the financing business). All that with an identical resale product that can be bought at a 60%-70% discount even after the "activation fee" that doubles the resale cost...

Given this, there's probably no reason to DVC to prop up resale prices of restricted resorts in order to convince a minority of informed buyers to buy direct. They can probably make a bigger profit on the typically uninformed buyers when buying cheaper inventory via ROFR. For the informed buyers - maybe a points washing program is in order!

Ok but someone paying 6x the cost of $2...$18 is wayyy different than someone paying 6x the cost of 80...$480 a point... most people couldn't afford or justify that...

 

[DVCsloth]

I agree with @atthebeachclub - I believe that over time (say post 2042) you'll have two groups of resorts, the "unrestricted group" and "restricted group", with the latter selling at a substantial discount to the former on the resale market.

Resale contracts at AKV, BLT, CCV, VGC AUL, VGF, OKWe, PVB (and SSR to a lesser extent given the 2054 expiration) will still have the ability to trade between 8-9 resorts. The rest, if resale restrictions continue, will be 1-resort contracts on the resale market. I argue most would prefer the flexibility over the restrictions. And that preference will be reflected in the resale price/value. (I know there are tax issues etc but...) the type of disparity in resale prices we see today between VGC and VDH may be a preview of the WDW situation in 10-15 years.

Once all those unrestricted resorts expire in the 2060s (probably after I expire), or as that approaches, the norm will likely be just much lower resale values, like other timeshares out there.

Yeah, just don't see Riviera going much lower than it is now. As long as the economy is going along pretty well, all of the DW/DL resorts should keep going up. BCV/BWV will most likely start to decline as they get closer to expiration. All of the recent resale purchases are not going to be able to book there or any of the new resorts. Riviera is already getting difficult to book SV studios in the 9–11 month window.

 

[marmentrout85]

I see your point here too because I would never buy a resort resale that only has access to one hotel unless I REALLY loved it then a small contract perhaps. I thought about Riv resale then quickly changed my mind because of this... But if thats people's only choice in the future to access these hotels at affordable prices who knows what people will rationalize...

I hear that for sure and I know that's how most view RIV resale. I'd say I'm quite unique on my thoughts on RIV resale vs. direct though. Let me know if this sounds crazy lol.

We actually only own RIV resale (50pt and 75pt) because, although they are currently my favorite rooms on property, I found myself questioning whether or not I'd get tired of it after X amount of years. The main reason I could see myself feeling this way is simply because it isn't walkable to any parks, or in other words, it isn't BWV or BCV. And with that tiny seed of doubt, direct seems like SO much more of a huge commitment compared to resale. Plus if I bought direct somewhere else I'd just likely be using those points to stay at RIV anyway, so I might as well get that 11 month window and save on points AND on the upfront cost.

Anyway, my thought process was that if we do indeed get tired of it and decide to sell, it's much easier to part ways with a contract that we spent way less $ on compared to direct prices.

And basically, even if I owned RIV direct, I would still want to save my RIV points to book the standard view rooms at RIV. I don't think I could justify using my expensive direct points as SAP elsewhere (at least with the current resort lineup) as the higher point room categories are usually what's left over at the 7 month mark. I could very well just get a SSR contract for that purpose right now.

I guess it's easier for me to have this line of thinking though since it wasn't our first contract and we already owned at other resorts (that we'd want to trade into at 7 months) on the monorail loop and at Crescent Lake.

All that to say I'm likely holding off on direct until another premium location/walkable resort pops up or if they end up doing DVC 2.0 with BWV or BCV lol.

 

[Girlstar30]

I hear that for sure and I know that's how most view RIV resale. I'd say I'm quite unique on my thoughts on RIV resale vs. direct though. Let me know if this sounds crazy lol.

We actually only own RIV resale (50pt and 75pt) because, although they are currently my favorite rooms on property, I found myself questioning whether or not I'd get tired of it after X amount of years. The main reason I could see myself feeling this way is simply because it isn't walkable to any parks, or in other words, it isn't BWV or BCV. And with that tiny seed of doubt, direct seems like SO much more of a huge commitment compared to resale. Plus if I bought direct somewhere else I'd just likely be using those points to stay at RIV anyway, so I might as well get that 11 month window and save on points AND on the upfront cost.

Anyway, my thought process was that if we do indeed get tired of it and decide to sell, it's much easier to part ways with a contract that we spent way less $ on compared to direct prices.

And basically, even if I owned RIV direct, I would still want to save my RIV points to book the standard view rooms at RIV. I don't think I could justify using my expensive direct points as SAP elsewhere (at least with the current resort lineup) as the higher point room categories are usually what's left over at the 7 month mark. I could very well just get a SSR contract for that purpose right now.

I guess it's easier for me to have this line of thinking though since it wasn't our first contract and we already owned at other resorts (that we'd want to trade into at 7 months) on the monorail loop and at Crescent Lake.

All that to say I'm likely holding off on direct until another premium location/walkable resort pops up or if they end up doing DVC 2.0 with BWV or BCV lol.

I think your line of thinking is smart. I would tire of the same resort every single year. As a brand new person coming in to this, The appeal to me of DVC is to have access to ANY of these really beautiful Disney resorts. That's why it pisses me off to no end and very smart on Disney's part to make the first resale resort so damn beautiful. They really nailed it. Just as much as I want the option to stay at all these resorts, let's just say I really dont care to stay at most of them.

I have my favorites and Riv is at the top. For this reason, I have to make sure i have access. My choice is resale or direct. I'm not a direct owner yet. My choices are PIT, VDH, FW and Riv for me to get those perks. VDH and FW have high dues. Those can easily get chucked. Also I want to stay at a resort not a trailer/cabin. So for most it's PIT vs Riv now. PIT doesn't speak to me. I like the views and rooms but I don't like the shorter contract for direct price, that it's feels like "an add on" to me, no front desk, all dining options at Poly except for a bar and grill etc. This leaves my only option as Riv. And I like Riv. A LOT. I want to be able to stay in a studio there. So I'll buy it. If I was already direct riv I wouldn't buy it, can't justify the price to buy direct again. If it was not on sale and was $260-275 pp forget it, way too expensive.

My only option is small riv resale or big riv resale at this point. Small resale= ideal, big resale contract = im pissed but it's my only option because I can't afford $40k plus loan and i dont have 40k lying around. I buy small resale or i drop other resale contract that I've used that the new and shinyness has worn off and buy big resale Riv. Rinse and repeat when other new beautiful resort comes out that's also why I don't think the resale prices will go down as much as people think. What's old to me is new to someone else.

 

[Canchaser143]

I can’t imagine that Disney would let it get that low once it sells out. Maybe I’m wrong, but Riviera seems to be the resort that people love to hate until they try it. Then a portion of those people want it. Restrictions might make it more likely that they snag any contract below a certain threshold and then just turn around sell direct to people wanting all access.

As the owner of the other DVC people love to hate, I feel this lol
During our trip to WDW in December we visited quite a few of the popular DVC Resorts and found RIV to have the best vibe and layout resort wise. Before this trip I thought I wanted to own at VGF, now no thank you! Monorail resorts are not my vibe, nor is shared bus service. I am browsing RIV resale contracts, they are a bargain to get to stay at such a beautiful place Now if I stumble upon a pot of gold, I'd consider buying direct so I could also use those points at VDH.

 

[DanCali]

As the owner of the other DVC people love to hate, I feel this lol
During our trip to WDW in December we visited quite a few of the popular DVC Resorts and found RIV to have the best vibe and layout resort wise. Before this trip I thought I wanted to own at VGF, now no thank you! Monorail resorts are not my vibe, nor is shared bus service. I am browsing RIV resale contracts, they are a bargain to get to stay at such a beautiful place Now if I stumble upon a pot of gold, I'd consider buying direct so I could also use those points at VDH.

But if you already have other points/contracts that can also be used at Riviera then the appeal of a Riviera contract (direct or resale) is much lower than a resale contract that does not have the resale restrictions and therefore has 14x flexibility, or a different direct contract like PVB that is perhaps much more likely to retain resale value because it's unrestricted if ever resold.

I never had a problem booking Riviera at 7 months out in a preferred view (e.g., July and August are well inside 7 months and 90% of the nights are still available). If anything, it seems to be one of the resorts that some owners try to switch out of at 7 months to get into "cheaper" resorts. I'm absolutely sold on staying there once in a while, but if the selling point of actually owning there is saving 3-5 points per night to book a parking lot view, I'm totally fine with paying a bit more for the skyliner view, or even "splurging" on a 1BR unit on occasion!

 

[Disney.dad]

I can’t imagine that Disney would let it get that low once it sells out. Maybe I’m wrong, but Riviera seems to be the resort that people love to hate until they try it. Then a portion of those people want it. Restrictions might make it more likely that they snag any contract below a certain threshold and then just turn around sell direct to people wanting all access.

They will definitely be doing ROFR at some point to make easy turns to direct point demand there. There will probably also be an additional expansion into Caribbean Beach at some point whether another tower or villa buildings built or something.