I mean at this point, why is anyone buying direct?

[Sandisw]

But that's not what is being said. Even if the cash resale value of the points is zero, the value in exchange for room reservations still exists.

I think that is what people are missing. If I decide I am done and have to give it away, I am getting $0 back on it.

But the person who now took it off my hands is still getting the remainder of the contract and points to use for the cost of MFs only.

So, there will always be value of use until expiration for the price of MFs. It’s just whether a seller will end up with any purchase price back when they are done with it.

 

[AstroBlasters]

They end January 31st, 2042. So, by the time a resale owner buys and closes, and can use the contract, it is less than 19 years of use,

As of today, those resorts have only 19 years and 22 days.

That’s a full 19 years then.

 

[Sandisw]

No it does matter.

I can go and rent a room for 10 years and spend the same amount of money as you buying the contract. Neither of us have money left over but here is the thing my path is much less risky than your path.

That is the point.

I think rental is more risky though because renter is not the one who controls the reservation and while it may be rare, things can happen, The flexibility to change and cancel is limited as well.

 

[Sandisw]

That’s a full 19 years then.

As I said, someone buying resale today is not getting 19 years of use. They are getting less than that and it assumes it has current points available.

Average time to buy, close and book is between two and three months. So, buyers today are getting less than 19 years to use points at the 2042 resorts.

 

[AstroBlasters]

As I said, someone buying resale today is not getting 19 years of use. They are getting less than that and it assumes it has current points available.

Average time to buy, close and book is between two and three months. So, buyers today are getting less than 19 years to use points at the 2042 resorts.

My original comment was that current resale points have 19 years left. I agree with you that a resale offer that is starting ROFR today would have slightly less than 19 years left.

This was in relation to another poster who said that it resale would have 10-15 years left.

 

[DonMacGregor]

I think that is what people are missing. If I decide I am done and have to give it away, I am getting $0 back on it.

But the person who now took it off my hands is still getting the remainder of the contract and points to use for the cost of MFs only.

So, there will always be value of use until expiration for the price of MFs. It’s just whether a seller will end up with any purchase price back when they are done with it.

Exactly. People coming across these threads need to realize that when some posters say the points "will be worth nothing", they mean the resale value will eventually drop down to zero, but the exchange value (the ability to still use those very same points to book rooms) will remain unchanged.

If I hold on to my direct purchase BRV contract until 2042, and hypothetically on January 9, 2035 the resale value of those points has dropped down to very little (and possibly zero), they will still have just as much exchange value when used to book rooms as whatever contract DVC sells direct that very same day (at $300, $400 per point or higher?). Certainly I will still be paying MF's on those points, and that will be significantly higher than today, but so will the MF's for whatever shiny new resort DVC is selling as well. Up until the very end, if an owner still holds those 2042 points, there is still value in renting them out because, as I said above, the points will still have exchange value and be used to secure reservations just like any other points. The intrinsic value will, in essence, be whatever they can be rented out for.

That's why I don't think the resale value will ever drop to absolutely nothing (or at least not until the very bitter end). There will still be buyers willing to pay some amount of money to get 5 or 6 or 7 years of vacations for a fraction of what direct points will be going for (obviously dependent upon DVC's then-in-place resale restrictions). And if DVC does go scorched-earth on resale restrictions, you'll STILL have at least access to the home resort.

It's ironic that many of the posters who place a high value on exit strategy, and profess to enjoy, or at least have the ability to remain in DVC for a shorter period of time (until the kids lose interest, etc.), seem to think that as the 2042 resorts wind down there will be no potential buyers interested in that very same, limited-time membership strategy. I'm betting there will be plenty of folks interested in getting what amounts to a 5-7 year membership for a fraction of the then-current direct pricing. 10 cents on the dollar maybe? Again, it will depend heavily on resale restrictions in place, but also again, there is at least the home resort.

 

[sethschroeder]

I ran all my calculations considering I won’t get that money back.

Which would mean you would likely come out ahead in that math to rent most likely as what throws off the math. You can review what Brian has brought up with more math behind it.

They belong together

They are not the same simply because of the sheer volume of options elsewhere. Now ocean options likely are better options than the middle of nowhere but they are not to the level of DVC.

Disney owns and controls pretty much all room options attached to what is argued to be a top 5 tourist destination in the world. There is no other option, they set rack rates and discounts, and your annual dues are tied directly in to their costs of running a multitude of resorts.

The "bubble" specifically is what makes DVC different than any other option out there.

I am not calling other timeshares trash I am simply saying DVC is rock solid beyond any other options unless you think WDW is going to go under on the parks side.

Exactly. People coming across these threads need to realize that when some posters say the points "will be worth nothing", they mean the resale value will eventually drop down to zero, but the exchange value (the ability to still use those very same points to book rooms) will remain.

Except we are not talking about exchange value. The contract having exchange value means nothing to the seller walking away with $0 in their pockets. Their time has ended with the contract with no contract and $0 in exchange.

All that matters is:
Buy In + Annual Dues < or > Rental Points

That is the math being completed.

That being said for me I view the contract as retaining value long term though so I can't say how you could do that math and still decide to buy.

 

[Sandisw]

Which would mean you would likely come out ahead in that math to rent most likely as what throws off the math. You can review what Brian has brought up with more math behind it.



They are not the same simply because of the sheer volume of options elsewhere. Now ocean options likely are better options than the middle of nowhere but they are not to the level of DVC.

Disney owns and controls pretty much all room options attached to what is argued to be a top 5 tourist destination in the world. There is no other option, they set rack rates and discounts, and your annual dues are tied directly in to their costs of running a multitude of resorts.

The "bubble" specifically is what makes DVC different than any other option out there.

I am not calling other timeshares trash I am simply saying DVC is rock solid beyond any other options unless you think WDW is going to go under on the parks side.



Except we are not talking about exchange value. The contract having exchange value means nothing to the seller walking away with $0 in their pockets. Their time has ended with the contract with no contract and $0 in exchange.

All that matters is:
Buy In + Annual Dues < or > Rental Points

That is the math being completed.

That being said for me I view the contract as retaining value long term though so I can't say how you could do that math and still decide to buy.

The math is easy. If you have to give it away, you simply compare the cost of what you would have done instead and see how it works out and decide if that timeframe makes sense to choose DVC.

Our comparison was cash stays with 35% discount since renting was never going to be something we would do.

For us, it was 10 years. We knew for sure we’d be doing Disney long after that and so buying in made sense. Obviously, DVC has held resale value really well, and if we sold today, we’d certainly get back a lot more than $0.

But, since we went in assuming no return on our investment, if the resale market tanks, it doesnt matter to us. It is also why we are not bothered by the changes DVD has and could do that could impact resale value in the future.

It’s not a right or wrong, Its simply a different mindset.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Except we are not talking about exchange value. The contract having exchange value means nothing to the seller walking away with $0 in their pockets. Their time has ended with the contract with no contract and $0 in exchange.

We're not talking about the seller walking away with $0 in their pockets, we're talking about the market hypothetically telling the seller his points are worth nothing, and the seller retaining ownership of the points and utilizing them. The value is in the utilization.

And THAT is my point. The uneducated reader might log on here and see people complaining right and left that their points are going to be "worth nothing" (IE, can't sell them, can't use them for anything). My point simply is that the points will still have utility. You won't be sitting on a bunch of points worth nothing that can't be used for anything.

 

[Nursemanit]

Disney owns and controls pretty much all room options attached to what is argued to be a top 5 tourist destination in the world

It's not even a top 5 destination in the US, nevermind the world.

 

[JoeyPeligroso]

I think this is super fair to consider.... However, how do you think resale restrictions will affect this going forward? Not sure what resorts you own direct, but if you were to sell them, they wouldn't be valid for RIV right now, and potentially VGC and Poly2.... and then whatever comes after the 2042 resorts expire.... Do you think that changes your potential value of resale?

It may, right now it affects RIV.

Restrictions may take something away, yes, however I’d be shocked if there weren’t a continuing market for resale points. There is a market for RIV points resale despite their restrictions. Being able to exit from a contract is important. Retaining some value upon exit is a nice bonus.

 

[sethschroeder]

It's not even a top 5 destination in the US, nevermind the world.

If you want to think that, that's fine as like I said its argued but awarded to WDW on various lists.

Attendance annually peaks:
Magic Kingdom - 20m (Florida in total has pulled 130m tourists)
Time Square - 50m
Great Wall - 10m
Hawaii (in total) - 10m
Eiffel tower - 7m
Big Ben - 6m

Additionally in many places its going to be spread out and not centralized like at WDW. As an example if you are going to NYC you are going to be all over the city and have more options since its all interconnected.

Personally I visit tons of different places but you are not going to find a bigger hitter in the repetitive trips where a singular company essentially holds all the direct access to said location. Its what makes WDW unique to any other area you would travel/visit.

We're not talking about the seller walking away with $0 in their pockets

No that is exactly what we are talking about. Otherwise why else am I going math on 10 years? I would be doing the math after 20 years or whatever length of time I am likely holding DVC for possibly looking to discover my break even as well between rental and ownership.

 

[DonMacGregor]

No that is exactly what we are talking about. Otherwise why else am I going math on 10 years? I would be doing the math after 20 years or whatever length of time I am likely holding DVC for possibly looking to discover my break even as well between rental and ownership.

I have no clue "why" you're doing anything, and I'm not being critical of your approach or your decision to do so. That's a subjective decision you have made. Again, you're completely missing my point. I don't care how you're doing your math or for how long or why. That's for you to decide.

I'll say it again, my ONLY point, (which wasn't even directed to you or anyone else in this thread) was to caution new readers that the concept of points being worth "nothing" is subjective and is a term that's thrown around casually and repeatedly.

The point (for the last time) is that a new reader shouldn't log on to the threads and assume (which one might logically do) that when established posters lament that their points "will be worth nothing", that "nothing" means the points can't be used for any purpose and have no value. "Nothing" could, in fact, mean that they can't resell them at a profit, or they can't resell them for some number greater than $0, or that they can't utilize them in the manner for which they purchased them. I never once said there isn't a possibility that a DVC point may decrease in resale value to the point where it is selling at close to zero. Logic dictates that it will. I also never said that a member can't or shouldn't be aware of that and if they so desire, determine at what point they want to sell their points.

A hammer that no one wants to buy may be worth zero if you try to sell it , but it will still drive nails. If you don't have any nails to drive, you may not be able to utilize the hammer, but it will still drive nails nonetheless.

 

[GrumpyInPhilly]

It doesn’t matter. I paid for that contract to get a room. I’m getting that room.

I know what you say. It’s fine if you want to run your numbers like that. I don’t see a problem with it.

For me, the money I paid initially I consider it gone. It’s not coming back (that’s why I say if I sell and get anything more than $0, it’s a win). If I get the rooms as it states in the contract, I’m getting what I paid for. It doesn’t matter if the rentals were a better bet at that moment.

It’s like buying a car. You buy now and maybe the next month they run a campaign and it’s $3k cheaper. I don’t care. I bought for a price I was ok to pay. Some people go crazy because they could’ve saved more. Not me.

Now, if the annual dues are more expensive than renting, then that means that my bet with DVC is costing me more than I was expecting. But if we get to that point, we’re all going to be in the same problem.

E.g. Tesla in China.

 

[hglenn]

As I said, someone buying resale today is not getting 19 years of use. They are getting less than that and it assumes it has current points available.

Average time to buy, close and book is between two and three months. So, buyers today are getting less than 19 years to use points at the 2042 resorts.

Oh.. I never thought about this... so if my UY is April, will I even get access to the April 2042 points? I presume no....? So, in theory, the points I get on 4/1/41 will be my last points? Then will I only have until 1/31/42 to use them?

 

[davidhr]

Oh.. I never thought about this... so if my UY is April, will I even get access to the April 2042 points? I presume no....? So, in theory, the points I get on 4/1/41 will be my last points? Then will I only have until 1/31/42 to use them?

That’s correct.

 

[intamin]

Oh.. I never thought about this... so if my UY is April, will I even get access to the April 2042 points? I presume no....? So, in theory, the points I get on 4/1/41 will be my last points? Then will I only have until 1/31/42 to use them?

Someone's going to try and bank in 2041, I guarantee it.

 

[DonMacGregor]

Someone's going to try and bank in 2041, I guarantee it.

And the forums, if they still exist, will be flooded with “Is anyone else having trouble banking points?” posts…

 

[tjkraz]

Oh.. I never thought about this... so if my UY is April, will I even get access to the April 2042 points? I presume no....? So, in theory, the points I get on 4/1/41 will be my last points? Then will I only have until 1/31/42 to use them?

That's the most cautious assumption. Though given how DVC handled covid, there's reason to think they will offer members some flexibility. Saying "sorry Dec UY owners, you only have 2 months to use those points!" is a pretty aggressive move, even if allowed via the POS.

Simplest thing would be to keep the resorts open for reservations a little longer. If they announce plans well in advance and limit it to only expiring owners, the points should run out within a couple of months. (e.g., if they say that BWV will stay open from 2/1/42 to 4/30 or 5/31/42 exclusively for BWV owners, the points should be diminished quickly.) Maybe require owners to pay some annual dues stipend if their stay occurs after 2/1.

 

[Nursemanit]

That's the most cautious assumption. Though given how DVC handled covid, there's reason to think they will offer members some flexibility. Saying "sorry Dec UY owners, you only have 2 months to use those points!" is a pretty aggressive move, even if allowed via the POS.

Simplest thing would be to keep the resorts open for reservations a little longer. If they announce plans well in advance and limit it to only expiring owners, the points should run out within a couple of months. (e.g., if they say that BWV will stay open from 2/1/42 to 4/30 or 5/31/42 exclusively for BWV owners, the points should be diminished quickly.) Maybe require owners to pay some annual dues stipend if their stay occurs after 2/1.

Our timeshares are shares of leased property- on Jan 31 the lease is up. They would have to pull a OKW and extend the lease for this to happen. OKW extension was a disaster so this is not likely. It is more likely they just warn users to borrow your 2021 points if you have an October / December use year. BRV is going to be rough as end of the year is the most popular time.

I will probably borrow my 2041 points in 2040 and use them at a non 2042 resort to avoid the drama. ( this is why people like me say you have a realistic 18 years left)