This would make the most sense to me. When Amex mentions based on your "history," I have to assume that they’re evaluating the relationship on an ongoing basis rather than putting customers on a blacklist forever because spend on their cards dropped off for a few months. (There are lots of reasons for spend dropping off unrelated to churning.)
I get Amex is probably thinking they approved you for their cards (and bonuses), but you’re not spending on them, and then you try to apply for more cards, Amex would be like hold up, you’re a gamer trying to play me aren’t you? So you get the pop up message. But if you go back to spending, and Amex does its history check and sees that, I’m hoping that factors in to get you back in Amex’s good graces.
Just looking at my Amex cards, I've had cards with months where I had no spend:
I got my
SPG Biz at the end of 10/17, put lots of spend on it as my everything else card from 11/17 - 4/18, then no balance on statements in
5/18 and
6/18 (because I got the MB Plat and SPG Personal in 4/18 and shifted spend to meet MSRs). Put ~$1k of spend on it in 7/18 to take advantage of the Staples 10% back Amex Offer while the SPG Biz still earned Starpoints.
My ~7 year old
PRG has moderate amounts of spend on every statement in the past year except
4/18 (again, when I got the MB Plat and SPG Personal).
I got my
MB Plat and
SPG Personal in 4/18, and have spend on them for every statement from 4/18 - to date, more while meeting MSR and tapering off to mostly taking advantage of Amex Offers after MSRs.
This was enough to qualify me for the welcome bonuses on
Hilton Biz (online, no pop up) in mid-6/18, the
Biz Plat (over the phone, so no pop up) and
Biz Green (self-referral online, no pop up) at the end of 7/18, and the
SPG Lux (self-referral online, no pop up) at the end of 8/18.
I have spend on the PRG, SPG Biz, SPG Personal, MB Plat, Hilton Biz, and Biz Plat (and $1 on the Biz Green) in 7/18 and 8/18, mostly taking advantage of the Staples, Bed Bath & Beyond, and
Best Buy Amex Offers.