I am, but only because I was actively seeing if I could make a big trip happen in 2020 instead.
As many of you know, my wife travels to Japan every two months or so for work, and she brings home the coolest and cutest (
kawaii!) gifts for our LO. So as far as our kiddo knows, Japan is the land of the coolest and cutest everything.
My wife wants to take our kiddo to Japan, and DD wants to go, but DD is only 5 (on her way to 6 very soon). Ideally, we'd want DD to grow up a little more before we go so she can handle the 11 hour flight, all the walking, and can better remember her first international trip, so we've been looking at 6 or 7. DW hates traveling to Japan in the summer (too hot and humid), so that's out; we usually spend Christmas and New Year in Hawaii, so that's out; and we don't want to take DD out of school for too long, so that leaves pretty much Spring Break, which also happens to coincide with Sakura season. So we've been eyeing the end of March/early April 2020 or 2021.
I promised my wife that I'd put her up in J or F class with all these points we've been earning, but then I'd need a seat for DD too; and the more I thought about it, I really don't want to be back in economy while the ladies are up in front, since I'm doing most of the heavy lifting earning these points. DW flies United for work, walks past the Polaris cabin every time, and wants to experience it herself. Alright.
The United devaluation really hit hard. I could have gotten a business saver fare in Polaris from SFO-NRT for 70k miles under the old award chart; now it's 175k miles and I don't even want to think about it creeping up once dynamic pricing settles in. To be fair, those Polaris seats (as in the "real" Polaris) from SFO-NRT go for $13k+ cash (so I guess 175k miles is still an amazing redemption), and economy on the same flight runs over $2k during Sakura season.
After United announced its devaluation, I just wanted to burn my United miles before they devalue even further, so I started searching for spring break 2020 availability. I was stalking 70k business saver awards on SFO-NRT, which turned out to be phantom inventory when I tried to book them. I'm sitting on 350k United miles, and my wife has about 70k United miles in her account, which when I transfer 105k UR to United is enough for 3 Polaris seats from SFO-NRT. But then, I'd need to figure out a return flight. The return flight is shorter, just under 10 hours, so DW doesn't mind coach on our way back, but I'd still need to transfer more URs or MRs to book a way home.
Then there are the hotels. We'd want to do 2-3 days at Tokyo
Disneyland and DisneySea, and I have the points to stay at the Sheraton Tokyo Bay (50k/night), but Tokyo Bay is a bit far from central Tokyo for the rest of our trip so we'd need another, more centralized hotel. Marriott was only showing the Sheraton Tokyo Bay and the Westin Tokyo available on points for a party of 3 during our dates (Marriott's hotels blocking out award bookings during Sakura season?), many of the Hilton hotels were showing as sold out, and the more I thought about it, you know, I'd really like to stay at the Park Hyatt Tokyo and enjoy some Suntory Time like Bill Murray.
The Park Hyatt Tokyo was available and only 30k/night! But regrettably, DW and I have no Hyatt points, so that's more URs I'd have to transfer over to make this trip happen in 2020.
By now, I'm conservatively estimating that I'd need to transfer at least 360k UR to various programs to make Japan happen in spring 2020, just so I can burn my 350k United miles ASAP. I took a step back, reconsidered what I was doing and decided to make this trip in 2021. DD will be another year older, and hopefully travel better. The new Beauty and the Beast attraction at Tokyo Disneyland will have opened this year. (Sadly, the Ghibli theme park isn't expected to open until 2022.) There's definitely a high risk of devaluation if I wait another year. Marriott is expected to implement peak pricing sometime this year, and Sakura season will very likely qualify for peak pricing. Both Hyatt and Marriott may bump up the categories of the hotels I'm looking at. United's dynamic pricing might eventually swing even higher than 175k miles for a one-way Polaris seat. ANA may go dynamic or devalue its insanely good deal for J and F RT. But in the meantime, I'll keep building up URs and MRs, maybe pick up a United card or two, and definitely get the Hyatt card for DW and I, so we don't have to transfer over as many URs. I was thinking of boarding the GrAAvy train for AA miles -- to be used on flights (gasp!) on AA or One World metal might also open up some options for the return flight.
So what are we doing for spring 2020? We're talking about Seattle or Orlando.
