Hurrican Wilma - Should I Cancel?

[shelby_36]

I'll have to say I am shocked by what I am reading here. Go back and read it. there is a Catagory 5 storm.175 MPH winds barrelling towards Florida and people want to know if they'll cancel the Halloween parade? Whats' up with that? Does ANYONE remember a little story on the news a few weeks ago about Hurrican Katrina. If you don't let me sahre with you that it was smaller than this one. Those saying . Oh its slowed down and lost intensity. It did ,yes, but it is still a huge dangerous storm.
there may be a chance they are wrong and everyone will be fine..lets hope. But what if its not ok? What if you all go running down there and they have to evacuate a large coastal area? then you are just in the way.
I'm sorry to be so negative. But I would rather take the big loss on my airline tickets than to chance driving my family into a catastrophic, fatal storm. It is irresponsible and it is not fair to the rescue workers down there that may need those hotels, those roads, it the worst happens. you should be making plans to cancel your trip and get out of their hair, so to speak. Your vacation can be rescheduled , lives can't. Sorry to step on toes but it is the truth.

 

[shelby_36]

And NOAA has not shrugged this storm off yet;

11pm advisory:

..WILMA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY TO A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE...COULD
RE-INTENSIFY ON THURSDAY...

AT 10 PM CDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
HURRICANE WARNING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA TO PUNTA ALLEN. A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT
FROM SAN FELIPE TO PUNTA ALLEN ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INCLUDING
COZUMEL AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR SWAN ISLAND.

AT 10 PM CDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH
FOR THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COASTS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WEST
OF SAN FELIPE TO CELESTUN. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTH OF
PUNTA ALLEN TO PUNTA GRUESA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH OF PUNTA ALLEN
TO CHETUMAL MEXICO...AND FOR BELIZE FROM THE BORDER WITH MEXICO
SOUTHWARD TO BELIZE CITY.

AT 11 PM EDT...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...
PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH. A HURRICANE WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN CUBA FOR THE PROVINCES OF MATANZAS WESTWARD
THROUGH PINAR DEL RIO...AND FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER WESTWARD TO CABO CAMARON.

ALL INTERESTS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WILMA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE WILMA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.3 WEST OR ABOUT
235 MILES... 380 KM...SOUTHEAST OF COZUMEL MEXICO.

WILMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...
WITH SOME WOBBLES OF THE EYE. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 155 MPH...250 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. WILMA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN HURRICANES OF THIS
INTENSITY...AND ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILMA COULD
REGAIN CATEGORY FIVE INTENSITY ON THURSDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 230 MILES...370 KM. NOAA BUOY 42056 RECENTLY REPORTED SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 49 MPH... 79 KM/HR...WITH A GUST TO 56 MPH... 90 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 894 MB...26.40 INCHES.

IF THE CENTER OF WILMA MAKES LANDFALL ON THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 7-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE
LEVELS...ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE
EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

WILMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE STORM TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF
10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS NEAR 25 INCHES PARTICULARLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS CUBA THROUGH FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO
8 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...SWAN
ISLAND...AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF HONDURAS THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...18.1 N... 84.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS...155 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 894 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT.

 

[micknpluto]

I would rather be @ WDW with Wilma.
Than @ work or home right now.
I leave Sat. 10/22/5.
WDW or Bust.

DITTO!!!!!

 

[DMRick]

i haveto say that the reason they are allowing flights to be chnaged is becasue this is a dangerous situation and could be potentially really bad so if a person wants to cancel and or reschedule they should... I dont; thinkit is intended so that people can change flights to come into an area a few days earlier so that they can ensure that that get the vacation they paid for

That's just what SW suggested to us..that we come a few days early, and leave early if we could change our ressies. Sherton Safari also said better to be there and settled than to not know. Even National was willing to work with us and keep our price and come early. But we decided that Monday should be ok, and if the area is hit hard, we'd rather cancel than come, so we are still on for Monday.
SW said they do not want their planes caught in it, so you could either come early or late, or just do stand by for 14 days around your ressie..or fly another time at the same cost.

 

[MinnieGi]

We also have our eye on Wilma as we are scheduled to leave Philly on Sunday for Orlando. Right now it looks like we may not be leaving until Monday, but we will be monitoring the situation. I hope the storm intensity lessons for all those in its pathway.

 

[luvindisneyworld]

I'll have to say I am shocked by what I am reading here. Go back and read it. there is a Catagory 5 storm.175 MPH winds barrelling towards Florida and people want to know if they'll cancel the Halloween parade? Whats' up with that? Does ANYONE remember a little story on the news a few weeks ago about Hurrican Katrina. If you don't let me sahre with you that it was smaller than this one. Those saying . Oh its slowed down and lost intensity. It did ,yes, but it is still a huge dangerous storm.
there may be a chance they are wrong and everyone will be fine..lets hope. But what if its not ok? What if you all go running down there and they have to evacuate a large coastal area? then you are just in the way.
I'm sorry to be so negative. But I would rather take the big loss on my airline tickets than to chance driving my family into a catastrophic, fatal storm. It is irresponsible and it is not fair to the rescue workers down there that may need those hotels, those roads, it the worst happens. you should be making plans to cancel your trip and get out of their hair, so to speak. Your vacation can be rescheduled , lives can't. Sorry to step on toes but it is the truth.

Well until I am told that the hurricane is hitting Orlando or have major effects from it I will not cancel my trip.I am sure I am not the only one thinking this way.Until it is more clear why should everyone Freak out and cancel the vacation?If that is what you would do then that is fine but everyone does their own thing and that is how it will always be.
I have already spoke with Delta and Disney and they are both telling me to wait and see for sure.
If that bothers you then I am sorry but I will not let this ruin my vacation if it is not expected to effect DW that much.
So we will be waiting to see..Our flight leaves at 6:05AM and will arrive at Orlando and 7:45AM Friday and then my DH will be coming down Saturday.

 

[kelmac284]

For those that are shocked at those of us that are worried about our trip I totally understand your thinking but I just wanted to add that not ALL of us are people that can just change our trip and go a few weeks later.

We are a family of 7 who have been planning this trip for over 3 years. We have scrimped and saved and arranged schedules. We live in CA and can't afford to nor can we arrange time off work, etc to go just whenever we feel like it.

We are scheduled to fly in this saturday and I am extremely torn on whether to cancel, delay or what.

I have considered coming on Friday, coming on Monday or just plain not coming at all.

I can tell you that if we cancel chances are we WILL lose money and we WON'T be able to come back for YEARS.

It took many many months of planning to get the time off work and school and to get our finances together for this trip. If it doesn't happen it most likely WON'T.

I agree that the safety and security of those who live in FL is first and foremost as well as my families safety. I surely don't want to put my family in danger nor do I want to get in anyone's way but I would be extremely upset if I lost thousands of dollars on my tickets both park and airline only to find out that after a few days all was well.

We are planning on being there for 2 weeks and if I cancel a 2 week trip for 2 bad days it would be devestating.

Again I understand your feelings but for some of us this is a once or twice in a lifetime trip and would be extremely dissapointing if it didn't happen.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone and I truly hope for everyone's sake that it weakens!!

 

[cjb71870]

Well, here is a comment from a Floridian and frequent Disney guest. We deal with the hurricanes all summer. It's a regular storm on our radar all summer. We see them coming from everywhere. But, I will say this one is still not knowing where it is going. See you up north hear of our hurricanes. Down here it is a constant thing. I'm not saying cancel just yet. But, watch the weather channel and pray that the low pressure pushes down!!! Please!

 

[2002Disneybride]

I am not cancelling my trip. We are scheduled to leave at 6:45 am from Philly and we are staying until Sun...I understand that this is a serious storm, but I am not going to live in a bubble! We are going to have a good time regardless!
Safe trips to everyone!

 

[micknpluto]

Dont cancel your trip! The NEWS-WEATHER-HURRICANE FORECAST says NOTHING about ORLANDO!!!! Everything will be fine... POSITIVE THINKING! 2 rainy days does not justify cancelling a trip.. The rest of the week shows it being sunny!!! Its too early to panic, Lets just wait till it gets closer to the weekend..

 

[back2disney]

2 rainy days does not justify cancelling a trip.. The rest of the week shows it being sunny!!! Its too early to panic, Lets just wait till it gets closer to the weekend..

Its the wind/tornadoes you have to worry about.. A major hurricane is nothing to mess around with.

 

[crow11ad]

We decided that we are still flying in tomorrow after a change that was supposed to have us leave Friday. We are going to Boynton Beach to visit my dad. I made the decision that we are leaving Sat. afternoon and leaving for Orlando. Staying at a hotel for 2 nights. I would rather be safe than sorry. I don't want to hurt my dad's feelings, but I am sure he will understand.

 

[laurabelle]

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200524_5day.html

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/084613.shtml?5day

Hurricane Wilma Discussion Number 20


Statement as of 5:00 am EDT on October 20, 2005



as anticipated...Wilma is going through the weakening phase of an
eyewall cycle. This is based on microwave data and observations
from a reconnaissance plane which reported excellent radar
presentation of concentric eyewalls of 4 and 40 N mi in diameter
respectively. The plane also observed two maximum wind bands...one
with winds of 121 knots...and a minimum pressure of 903 mb measured
by a sonde...but with 23 knots at the surface. The pressure could
then be a few millibars lower. Satellite images indicate that
the cloud pattern is not as spectacular as it was 12 to 18 hours
ago and in fact...the eye is obscured at this time. The initial
intensity is adjusted down to 130 knots. This may be an overestimate
since the maximum winds reported so far are 121 knots. However...we
are assuming that the plane has not sampled the entire circulation.

We do not know exactly when and if the strengthening phase of the
eyewall replacement cycle will begin. Since it is assumed that it
will occur within the next 12 to 24 hours...re-intensification is
forecast during this period. I would not be surprised if we see the
formation of a large eye later today. Thereafter...a portion of the
circulation will be interacting with the Yucatan Peninsula and
there will be increasing wind shear. Wilma should then begin a
steady weakening trend.

The expected northwest turn has not materialized yet and the average
motion of Wilma is still 295 degrees at 7 knots. However...the
northwest motion should begin soon as the short wave over the west
central United States advances rapidly eastward. This wave is
expected to create a weakness over the Gulf oe Mexico and Wilma
should turn to the northwest and north toward the weakness. The
short-wave is expected to amplify and bring the westerly flow south
enough to carry Wilma toward the northeast. Before the westerlies
become established...the steering currents are expected to be weak.
Wilma will likely meander for a day or so over northeastern Yucatan
or the Yucatan Channel before taking off toward the northeast as in
a typical recurvature pattern.

Track guidance is showing the usual variability but the overall
model consensus is to keep Wilma moving very slowly near or over
northeastern Yucatan for the next two days and then sharply turning
the hurricane toward the northeast. It is fair to say that by day
five...Wilma should begin to acquire extratropical characteristics
by judging the expansion of the wind field and the frontal like
moisture pattern in models.

Forecaster Avila

 

[laurabelle]

We're still going, Friday morning through Monday night, especially after reading the last update. We were really on the fence up until now...

 

[Uncleromulus]

Laurabelle: Re: Forecaster "Avila"--
Huh?? Sounded impressive, but bottom line--terribly uncertain as to path--and as important to WDW visitors--time.
This all must be very frustrating to those with WDW plans. But as I said before, no way I would cancel a long-awaited trip based on what I'm seeing and hearing now.
And the sad part--all of THAT could be completely wrong this time tomorrow morning.

 

[laurabelle]

Uncle...you're supposed to make me feel better! The forecast is from the wunderground site. I have looked at the recent computer models and they're all showing a more southernly track and moving a bit more slowly to FL. My trip concern is that I'm only there a short time and didn't want to lose say, Sat and Sun to rain/wind whatever. I wish I had to luxury to wait until tomorrow morning to decide...

 

[Uncleromulus]

Well-if it were me, I'd go when I had planned to go!!

 

[bstnsprts]

We flew in last year with Ivan still in the gulf. No way was I going to cancel. The "projected paths" at the time had Ivan turning towards Tampa. Well, it did not rain one drop and for two days all we heard from the CM's in the parks were, "would you like to ride again there's nobody waiting to get on." My advice would be as long as your flights aren't cancelled, go.

 

[shelby_36]

I don't blame people for being upset if they had to cancel or reschedule. I am not advocating everyone cancel their trips for the next month. But I was shocked to see people that are due to arrive or be there in the middle of the projeted hurricane/evacuation time and they are very nonchalent that this storm could kill 1000's of people. only concerned that they may lose some money or have to work this weekend. i'd rather cancel a trip then even take a chance of losing one of my kids, or getting in the way of someone else that is trying to get out. if you remember with hurricane katrina ir did not just affect New orleans. the evacuation and the damage extended a great distance from where the eye made landfall. And in addition geography dictates that if that storm hits even the southern most tip of Florida ..thos people have to go somewhere. In Florida there is only one way out..north. they really would be better off if EXTRA people didn't show up and trivialize their problem. And again I am not saying those that are going next week should cancel..I too would wait for more models. but if i set to board a plan in the next 3 days i would cancel and take advantage of all the companies that are willing to bypass penalties at this time.

 

[ruttie]

I agree!
But as i have said before it is really a wait and see game I honestly think everyone should just sit tight changing flights scrambeling around to me just causes more people to panic etc.. Here in florida we know nothing yet! Am i still going to Disney on Friday for MNSSHP absolutely! my plan is to wake up Sat and decide if i can go home or if i need to stay at Disney (that will all depend on if they say I have to evacuate or not) But I do kno wthat last year there were tons of people from our area who tried to get into disney with there kids to evacuate we had 2 days to get out and were told no that everything was booked to accomodate those that had changed there ressies to beat the storm...only to find out by the folks (like me)that actually made it in that there were plenty of rooms because those people never made it because aiports closed etc.... but it did not help those who ended up havong to drive an extra 2 hours on teh road to stay in a small rundown hotel on teh side of the highway for 3 days waiting for the all clear to return home. Notto menton that at WL where we were some people actually had teh audacity to complain that they had sandbags at the doors and were keeping them in like prisoners! And that they wished that dsney would lower there prices at the restraunts so they could eat there insteead of at the snack bar becuase they did not plan to be stuck in teh hotel for 2 days! they follwed that up by saying we change our flight o fly in a day early so we would not lose our money we spent on the trip. needless to say a couple of people who over herd them were ready to strangle them as they at that point knew that hey were at least $5000 dollars in teh hole already from teh previuos hurricanes and damage and were just happy to be in a place that had electricty and food!

there is always 2 side to a story sometime 5 or six for now sit tight i would not change a thing until i knew more then if i was scheduled for sunday and i could not come inwell i would consider that a sign that i needed to head warnings and wait a day and fly down the next dau when it was all clear simple easy and no panicing! on teh other side you wait till sunday and thsi storm does what everyone hope and barely hits us and you get to go to disney as scheduled and enjoy our beautiful october weather!