How low will Disney let Poly go?

[Yinn]

When did it get bought back? I bought mine at 125 with 2.5X points.

Q1 2018. BTW, if anyone is looking for a deal. Follow @poofyo101 consistently gets the deals according to ROFR threads.

A lot of these contracts are starting to look like liabilities to many people. Aulani for example. If one starts doing the math by just paying the maintenance alone you are spending enough money that you could rent comparable hotels and suites elsewhere for very similar prices. Especially once tourism drops and theirs some deals as hotels start pushing more competitive pricing a lot of people are going to want out of these timeshares. Disney also might not be in a position to prop up DVC. Another thing to consider is how much airfare will probably be going up too. Let's just hope we get this economy back on track once we put Covid behind us.

That logic does have some merit as some won't be able to afford it. But I don't know that it fully qualifies. By that theory, Six Flags would be a hot commodity due to multiple state locations (ie, no airfare) and cheaper park tickets. While they're doing relatively well, they're no Disney. The same has always been the case with resorts and hotels. DVC has never been able to compete with outside resorts, nor has Disney cash reservations. I mean heck, you could rent a 3 bedroom townhouse for $99/night 15 minutes from the park on AirBnB. You can even buy a 3bed, 2 bath right in Celebration for $200,000. At $235/pt for Poly, that's about 850 points and I'm already at 300!

I for one, never stayed on Disney property growing up. Even as an adult you can easily find hotel deals for under $50/night. For years, I lobbied to buy a house in Kissimmee instead. Point in time they were $75k-$100k. From an investment perspective, DVC and staying on property will never match that.

But I can also say, staying on Disney property has been a tremendously different vacation experience. Staying off property, we went to Florida. We visited Disney while we were in Florida, but we mostly vacationed in Florida. But because we stayed off property, we ate off property and we visited other parks. It was more economical that way. A week stay would mean maybe 2 days at Disney. With DVC, we go to Disney. It costs us a boatload more, but it's been worth every penny.

 

[Zurezo]

lot of these contracts are starting to look like liabilities to many people. Aulani for example. If one starts doing the math by just paying the maintenance alone you are spending enough money that you could rent comparable hotels and suites elsewhere for very similar prices. Especially once tourism drops and theirs some deals as hotels start pushing more competitive pricing a lot of people are going to want out of these timeshares. Disney also might not be in a position to prop up DVC. Another thing to consider is how much airfare will probably be going up too. Let's just hope we get this economy back on track once we put Covid behind us.

I agree! I live out in Las Vegas and have been looking for VGC contract for 6+ months now and I am viewing now as the time to be aggressive with my offers and see if I can sneak one by them.

 

[RanDIZ]

I'm all about saving as much money as possible, but another perspective... if the "perfect" contract comes along for $5 more per point, is it worth $600 more to you to obtain it?

I purchased last fall and thought about offering $2 below asking price for our contract but, ultimately, decided that it was exactly what we were looking for and it had already taken a long time for that "perfect" contract to turn up, so I paid what the seller was asking. It was worth an extra $400 to me to snag it. If you're already paying $10K-20K, you might not want to let the perfect contract slip through your fingers over a few hundred dollars more.

That said, with everything going on right now and the possibility of prices dropping, taking a "wait and see" approach may be your best bet. We're interested in adding on, but holding out to see where prices are headed.

A few hundred or even thousand isn’t much when you figure the avg contract is held for about 10yrs.

 

[Brianstl]

One of the big brokers post when they clear. But I do not think they post when they don't clear.

OK, it is much more sporadic than daily, but the do include exercised ROFR in their post. I got tired of skimming through all their posts and may have missed a post, but it appears 0 of their contracts have been bought back since at least March 1.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2652119518366434&id=1444458512465880

 

[JETSDAD]

OK, it is much more sporadic than daily, but the do include exercised ROFR in their post. I got tired of skimming through all their posts and may have missed a post, but it appears 0 of their contracts have been bought back since at least March 1.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=2652119518366434&id=1444458512465880

Those posts are just congratulation posts to those who pass. They do a separate post for ROFR information and link to their website.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-march-20-report/

 

[Grumpy by Birth]

A few hundred or even thousand isn’t much when you figure the avg contract is held for about 10yrs.

That was kind of my point. Of course we all want to pay as little as possible. But paying a little extra (in some cases almost a negligible difference when averaged over the life of the contract) may be preferable if the alternative is letting the "perfect" contract slip through your fingers.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Those posts are just congratulation posts to those who pass. They do a separate post for ROFR information and link to their website.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-march-20-report/

This is really interesting! Thanks for supplying this link.

The odd thing to me was that only 1 SSR contract has been bought back so far. That is particularly strange because I think that is where a lot of people are low balling prices.

 

[DisMomKY]

This is really interesting! Thanks for supplying this link.

The odd thing to me was that only 1 SSR contract has been bought back so far. That is particularly strange because I think that is where a lot of people are low balling prices.

Meh I think people don’t really want to buy SSR direct when you could spend just a little more for Riviera or AKL so they don’t really need those points

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Meh I think people don’t really want to buy SSR direct when you could spend just a little more for Riviera or AKL so they don’t really need those points

Good point!

 

[Brianstl]

Those posts are just congratulation posts to those who pass. They do a separate post for ROFR information and link to their website.

https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/dvc-right-of-first-refusal-report-rofr-march-20-report/

Except every post at least since March 1 says all ROFR were waived. Did you read the post to the end?

 

[JETSDAD]

Except every post at least since March 1 says all ROFR were waived. Did you read the post to the end?

All ROFR were waived for those buyers. It congratulates those buyers, all of which were waived that week. It doesn't say that all the contracts that they sent to ROFR passed.

 

[spunkylouamanda]

If you want to rescend your offer, your contract will state how many days you have to do it. It is usually 10 days.

I was thinking the same thing too as I just offered $142 on a small contract but then I just saw the post after yours and I was like - that person is right - over 46 years of ownership, that extra 10 dollars doesn't hurt as much and I still saved a ton over direct purchase!

 

[holyrita]

Just read through that DVC Resale Market article on the March '20 ROFR report and now... I'm nervous.

Had a low offer accepted and was already nervous about passing ROFR. Reading that Disney ramped up buy backs even after the closure has me really nervous

 

[cowlady1]

How low and what resort?

 

[Brianstl]

Just read through that DVC Resale Market article on the March '20 ROFR report and now... I'm nervous.

Had a low offer accepted and was already nervous about passing ROFR. Reading that Disney ramped up buy backs even after the closure has me really nervous

they didn’t really ramp up ROFR. It was up slightly from the previous month and lower than the previous year on a percentage basis.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

Had a low offer accepted and was already nervous about passing ROFR. Reading that Disney ramped up buy backs even after the closure has me really nervous

What resort? In the article, there were definitely some more ROFR'd than others. Old Key West had a good amount, while SSR was ignored.

 

[sethschroeder]

Lastly, 23mm people have filed for unemployment the past three weeks alone, so unemployment, at least in the short term, will skyrocket to upwards of 15+%.

Except unemployment payouts are higher then they would have been ever in the past. In addition a ton of people are on unemployment based on reduced hours and furlough.

Who knows if they go back to full hours in the future but it's important to note that difference and people likely counting on that.

Plus DVC carries basically 0 cost for a vast majority that own until next January.

 

[Brianstl]

Except unemployment payouts are higher then they would have been ever in the past. In addition a ton of people are on unemployment based on reduced hours and furlough.

Who knows if they go back to full hours in the future but it's important to note that difference and people likely counting on that.

Plus DVC carries basically 0 cost for a vast majority that own until next January.

It doesn’t take the vast majority to lead to dramatically lower prices. It doesn’t take the vast majority of people who currently have financed contracts. It doesn’t take much to create a significant imbalance of buyers and sellers. What can could be viewed six months ago as a nominal increase of sellers can put massive downward pressure on prices as buyers dry up as consumer confidence erodes. Throw in some desperate sellers and you have the 2008 housing market.

 

[Brianstl]

From the ROFR thread, a $120 pp 100 point Poly.

https://www.disboards.com/threads/r...uctions-formatting-tool.3798344/post-61818827

 

[sethschroeder]

It doesn’t take the vast majority to lead to dramatically lower prices. It doesn’t take the vast majority of people who currently have financed contracts. It doesn’t take much to create a significant imbalance of buyers and sellers. What can could be viewed six months ago as a nominal increase of sellers can put massive downward pressure on prices as buyers dry up as consumer confidence erodes. Throw in some desperate sellers and you have the 2008 housing market.

That's fine but again it's not like the housing market because of a few reasons.

1. The job reduction is temporary and government enforced.
2. Unemployment payments are also proped up by additional money the receiver gets.
3. People don't have huge payments like their mortgage (most don't have any payment).
4. You can't rent out your house like DVC.

So yes things are serious but I just keep seeing these analogies to the past when it's really not the same. Numbers more interesting for me is bankruptcy numbers for both business and individuals.