How low will Disney let Poly go?

[Yinn]

I’ll tell you what, good old SSR keeps pulling me back with its low PPP and dues

SSR can be a value trap. It didn't used to be, but it is nowadays.

January-March2020 ROFR has SSR between $93 and $110. Dvcresalemarket has the average contract at $104/pt. In the WDW area, it had the 3rd largest % increase in annual fees. But, the dues are still low and it's CAGR is on the lower end. If you can find a contract for under $100/pt then its still a good deal, especially true at $90/pt and under. Up around $110 or even at $120/pt where people have been buying (according to the ROFR thread) that's not worth it if you're not keen on staying at SSR.

Ahh fair enough lol Just wondered your thoughts. I'm not too worried about any listings being swooped up. I've have opportunities to bid I just need something to make me jump. Heck we are even interested in BLT also maybe AKV too. The uncertainty is what makes it hard but thats also whats driving prices down with slower sales lol.

I saw a couple of tempting BLT and AKV contracts. Right now BWV has my eye. The 2042 date is killing me, but there's a lot of contracts down at ~$110 point which means $100/pt is obtainable. I haven't seen a June UY yet, but that's one I'd jump on.

 

[iheartglaciers]

I was told from two reputable resales that PVB hasn't been ROFR since it started on the resale market and that it typically takes 5 years before a resort sells out direct that they start acting on ROFR.

I unfortunately had a PVB contract taken by ROFR shortly after the resort sold out. It was 150 pts at 130/point with triple points.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

SSR can be a value trap. It didn't used to be, but it is nowadays.

January-March2020 ROFR has SSR between $93 and $110. Dvcresalemarket has the average contract at $104/pt. In the WDW area, it had the 3rd largest % increase in annual fees. But, the dues are still low and it's CAGR is on the lower end. If you can find a contract for under $100/pt then its still a good deal, especially true at $90/pt and under. Up around $110 or even at $120/pt where people have been buying (according to the ROFR thread) that's not worth it if you're not keen on staying at SSR.



I saw a couple of tempting BLT and AKV contracts. Right now BWV has my eye. The 2042 date is killing me, but there's a lot of contracts down at ~$110 point which means $100/pt is obtainable. I haven't seen a June UY yet, but that's one I'd jump on.

I think if we went with a 2042 resort we'd go with BRV or BWV. Most likely BRV, since it seems to be cheaper than BWV and especially BCV. BRV is very underrated imo.

 

[DisMomKY]

SSR can be a value trap. It didn't used to be, but it is nowadays.

January-March2020 ROFR has SSR between $93 and $110. Dvcresalemarket has the average contract at $104/pt. In the WDW area, it had the 3rd largest % increase in annual fees. But, the dues are still low and it's CAGR is on the lower end. If you can find a contract for under $100/pt then its still a good deal, especially true at $90/pt and under. Up around $110 or even at $120/pt where people have been buying (according to the ROFR thread) that's not worth it if you're not keen on staying at SSR.



I saw a couple of tempting BLT and AKV contracts. Right now BWV has my eye. The 2042 date is killing me, but there's a lot of contracts down at ~$110 point which means $100/pt is obtainable. I haven't seen a June UY yet, but that's one I'd jump on.

I saw 160 pts for 94 but it has a Dec use year which isn’t my favorite. I may offer under 90 on it and deal with the use year, it works for us but with no 2020 points I’ll always be borrowing

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I unfortunately had a PVB contract taken by ROFR shortly after the resort sold out. It was 150 pts at 130/point with triple points.

this might be the first taken contract we've heard of for PVB!

 

[DisMomKY]

I think if we went with a 2042 resort we'd go with BRV or BWV. Most likely BRV, since it seems to be cheaper than BWV and especially BCV. BRV is very underrated imo.

I don’t like the rooms there, they make me think of the ASMu family suites with the couch and stuff. Maybe after the refurb

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I don’t like the rooms there, they make me think of the AOA family suites with the couch and stuff. Maybe after the refurb

After seeing the SSR refub rooms and Riviera rooms and new Wilderness Lodge rooms on the hotel side, i expect BRV rooms to be very nice.

 

[iheartglaciers]

this might be the first taken contract we've heard of for PVB!

It’s in the ROFR thread here, but yeah we were sad. Especially since the broker said it definitely wouldn’t get taken haha. It would’ve been a great deal with two years of “free” points.

 

[Yinn]

It’s in the ROFR thread here, but yeah we were sad. Especially since the broker said it definitely wouldn’t get taken haha. It would’ve been a great deal with two years of “free” points.

When was this? I went though about 3 years worth of ROFRs when I went nuts on my analysis. I don’t remember seeing one that was shot down.

Probably worked in my favor though, I might have hesitated if I saw one taken.

 

[Yinn]

When was this? I went though about 3 years worth of ROFRs when I went nuts on my analysis. I don’t remember seeing one that was shot down.

Probably worked in my favor though, I might have hesitated if I saw one taken.

Nevermind. Found it - Q1 2018. I must have missed that entire ROFR. Looks like there was 3 taken that quarter and I didn’t catch a single one. SMH.

 

[ABE4DISNEY]

I'm eager to see what the ROFR floor will be for Q2. The brokers are saying that Disney and the market is the same, but I guess I want to see that for myself.

 

[andeesings]

I think the lack of 1bedroom options. We might buy AKL, we found a heck of a deal 96pp for 260 poinys

I just put in an offer of $100 pp at AKL for 300 points- And the seller agreed to pay the closing costs, so really it was about $97.5 pp, which I was happy with. I'm thinking it will pass, hope so!

 

[andeesings]

I'm not sure small contracts still command the premium that they use to, due to the new resale restrictions. If your only in the market for say 25 to 50 points, why not pay the direct price and then have 40-50 years of the ability to make reservations at all resorts, not just the original 14.

I'm debating this question right now, because we have contracts that can book at all resorts and only need about 30 to 50 more points in either contract to get to the amount we need for 2 bedrooms every other year. So for an extra $1000 or $2000 over the next 46 years (+/- $50/year) I can book anywhere. DVC made it a much more difficult decision on small contract with the resort restrictions.

Doesn't Disney have a minimum on the number of points you can buy?

 

[poofyo101]

I unfortunately had a PVB contract taken by ROFR shortly after the resort sold out. It was 150 pts at 130/point with triple points.

When did it get bought back? I bought mine at 125 with 2.5X points.

 

[Noah_t]

Reading all this and thinking about "How low will Disney let anything go" is the question. I have gotten very lucky before with my OKW contract (300 points @ $61/pt) which I bought 6 months ago... super lucky it went though. I am in the middle of a VGC purchase right now that I just bought and waiting on ROFR from them (250 points @ $170/pt). The April buy backs will be interesting

A lot of these contracts are starting to look like liabilities to many people. Aulani for example. If one starts doing the math by just paying the maintenance alone you are spending enough money that you could rent comparable hotels and suites elsewhere for very similar prices. Especially once tourism drops and theirs some deals as hotels start pushing more competitive pricing a lot of people are going to want out of these timeshares. Disney also might not be in a position to prop up DVC. Another thing to consider is how much airfare will probably be going up too. Let's just hope we get this economy back on track once we put Covid behind us.

 

[CastAStone]

Doesn't Disney have a minimum on the number of points you can buy?

Yes and no. If you already have points, you can add on as few as 25, and it’s a new contract. You can also split direct purchases into smaller contracts, which helps with resale value.

 

[DisMomKY]

I think you’re referring to the one on dvcbyresale.com

201 points available now (68 banked from '19, 42 from '20, 91 borrowed from '21) Then, 9 points coming on 4.1.21.

If that’s the case, use the 91 borrowed points to make a reservation. Under the current rules a reservation cancellation allows for points to be moved back to their original use year, which would be 2021.

The contract would then be:
68 banked/due to expire April 2021. 42 now and bankable into 2021, and 100 for 2021.

You can even request that to be done as a part of the offer. And you’ll most likely be able to get that contract for $140/pt.

They wouldn’t do that. Oh well moving on.

 

[Brianstl]

They were going to take $110 for poly? I'd jump at that!

In two weeks they will take less

 

[Brianstl]

That’s basically what I told my husband. I said we will just have to wait to see next months but I know what I’m okay with paying and what I’m not and that’s fine. We had 2 we are selling just pass ROFR that I was shocked we got asking price on (118 per point AKL and 113 per point SSR). I think if we listed now we’d get much less

I believe one of the bigger brokers on their Facebook page post daily update on the number of contracts that clear ROFR and those that don’t. I don’t do Facebook, but my wife says it has been weeks since she has seen them post that something didn’t clear ROFR.

 

[poofyo101]

I believe one of the bigger brokers on their Facebook page post daily update on the number of contracts that clear ROFR and those that don’t. I don’t do Facebook, but my wife says it has been weeks since she has seen them post that something didn’t clear ROFR.

One of the big brokers post when they clear. But I do not think they post when they don't clear.