How low will Disney let Poly go?

[shoegal9]

We recently bought a Polynesian resale contract at $140 per point because we love it so much. However, before we were owners there, we were successful at making early September reservations at the Poly at the 7 month mark numerous times using our points for other resorts.
But I know availability is going to be iffy for the next year or two. However, if Some people are thinking of selling their Contracts during this time due to doubts about Disney or financial reasons, they might not spend points in order to sell loaded contracts. So who knows.
But I highly doubt Disney is going to be aggressive in their buybacks in the short term.

 

[CastAStone]

I don't think Disney is willing to buy back ANY contracts until the pandemic is under better control and people are coming back to the parks. Until then, it is really up to the market to determine prices.

Disney is in a money crunch, guys. They are not a benevolent federal government out to save us from poor financial decisions with freshly minted dollars.

Exactly, it is going to be a long time before they will direct any revenue towards buying back any resale contracts.

Once the sales office reopens, it's hard for me to believe they won't start flipping contracts again when they have a direct buyer signed sealed delivered for a sold out resort - it's an easy buck. But I think that will be the extent of it.

ETA that flipping the occasional contract won't be enough to keep prices from falling if the trends continue the way that they have.

 

[Brianstl]

Once the sales office reopens, it's hard for me to believe they won't start flipping contracts again when they have a direct buyer signed sealed delivered for a sold out resort - it's an easy buck. But I think that will be the extent of it.

ETA that flipping the occasional contract won't be enough to keep prices from falling if the trends continue the way that they have.

Two things, there are going to be less potential buyers at the parks and the economy is really going to hurt to sales. My guess is they are going to take a very hardline on only offering points to direct buyers at RIV and AUL.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

California may be locked down through out the summer. There is no timeline when the country as a whole will even be back to 50 % of what used to be normal living. If the country as a whole is still in some semblance of a stay at home order, you will see these prices start to drop like a rock.

 

[Jhoyer5150]

DIS issued $6B in debt in mid-March and did another $11B just this week. $17B in non-deal financing in the span of two months....that's a staggering sum. The company now has $65B in debt thanks to this and the ill-timed 20th Century Fox assets purchase last year. This company is in a cash crunch right now, even skipping a dividend payment to save money. There is no more ROFR in the near future, up to a year or more (exception could possibly be made for Riviera where they are trying to sell direct points). Sure there's an arbitrage for taking a lowball contract off resale for an old resort for a new direct buyer....but as mentioned earlier that line is a whole lot smaller. Remember DVC new sales thrive most on people just coming back from a 1st trip or first family trip. Well, right now nobody's coming back from WDW because its closed. The installed base of DVC owners is really the extent of the DVC universe at the moment. That's not enough to continue to prop up these inflated prices, especially as time goes on with no usable product.

 

[CastAStone]

Two things, there are going to be less potential buyers at the parks and the economy is really going to hurt to sales. My guess is they are going to take a very hardline on only offering points to direct buyers at RIV and AUL.

If you’re right and they’re going to turn away add-ons or new buyers people with no interest in Riviera, then I hope we hear about it because I’d need to buy some CCV points before they’re gone.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

DIS issued $6B in debt in mid-March and did another $11B just this week. $17B in non-deal financing in the span of two months....that's a staggering sum. The company now has $65B in debt thanks to this and the ill-timed 20th Century Fox assets purchase last year. This company is in a cash crunch right now, even skipping a dividend payment to save money. There is no more ROFR in the near future, up to a year or more (exception could possibly be made for Riviera where they are trying to sell direct points). Sure there's an arbitrage for taking a lowball contract off resale for an old resort for a new direct buyer....but as mentioned earlier that line is a whole lot smaller. Remember DVC new sales thrive most on people just coming back from a 1st trip or first family trip. Well, right now nobody's coming back from WDW because its closed. The installed base of DVC owners is really the extent of the DVC universe at the moment. That's not enough to continue to prop up these inflated prices, especially as time goes on with no usable product.

DVC wouldn't ROFR Riviera anyway. They do no ROFR resorts that are not sold out or usually within 5 years of selling anyway. Typically. They rarely ROFR Poly and haven't at Copper Creek also.

 

[Yinn]

We you already a member or was this your 1st contract resale or direct?

I was a new member, 1st contract. No membership at all blue white or otherwise.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I came *this close* to accepting a Poly counteroffer today. DH really, really thinks prices will drop, so I backed out of negotiations. I also think prices overall will go down, but I’m not so sure the Poly will drop much lower.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

I came *this close* to accepting a Poly counteroffer today. DH really, really thinks prices will drop, so I backed out of negotiations. I also think prices overall will go down, but I’m not so sure the Poly will drop much lower.

We are waiting. Hoping it hits 115-120.

 

[EM Lawrence]

DIS issued $6B in debt in mid-March and did another $11B just this week. $17B in non-deal financing in the span of two months....that's a staggering sum. The company now has $65B in debt thanks to this and the ill-timed 20th Century Fox assets purchase last year. This company is in a cash crunch right now, even skipping a dividend payment to save money. There is no more ROFR in the near future, up to a year or more (exception could possibly be made for Riviera where they are trying to sell direct points). Sure there's an arbitrage for taking a lowball contract off resale for an old resort for a new direct buyer....but as mentioned earlier that line is a whole lot smaller. Remember DVC new sales thrive most on people just coming back from a 1st trip or first family trip. Well, right now nobody's coming back from WDW because its closed. The installed base of DVC owners is really the extent of the DVC universe at the moment. That's not enough to continue to prop up these inflated prices, especially as time goes on with no usable product.

Thinking about this, even when the parks reopen, it will probably be the long-time, die-hard fans who brave the waters first. Those “once in a lifetime” vacationers who decide to do a DVC tour for the first time will probably take longer to come back.

 

[ChipNdale8887]

Thinking about this, even when the parks reopen, it will probably be the long-time, die-hard fans who brave the waters first. Those “once in a lifetime” vacationers who decide to do a DVC tour for the first time will probably take longer to come back.

i think it will more likely be even just locals or people that live only a few hours away. People are still scared to even fly. I think I wouldnt feel comfortable flying.

 

[heynowirv]

I think in two months most resorts will be down at least another 20%.

price wise?

 

[ClemTig]

I came *this close* to accepting a Poly counteroffer today. DH really, really thinks prices will drop, so I backed out of negotiations. I also think prices overall will go down, but I’m not so sure the Poly will drop much lower.

I think your husband is correct. Prices fell quite a bit after the 2008 crash. This could be even worse than that. Would not shock me to see these resale prices drop by 50% in the next 12 months.

 

[RanDIZ]

I think in two months most resorts will be down at least another 20%.

That’d be great. 20-25% off is ideal. Anything less is really not much of a bargain when you consider the avg contract held is about 10yrs. Typical 100pt contract is only saving $150-200/yr. at current “Corona”discounts.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I think your husband is correct. Prices fell quite a bit after the 2008 crash. This could be even worse than that. Would not shock me to see these resale prices drop by 50% in the next 12 months.

If I could just get the 50% discount now, that would be great.

 

[EM Lawrence]

Although I would like to add that it is sobering to consider the economic situation that would cause prices to drop so significantly. That part give me no joy at all.

 

[CastAStone]

That’d be great. 20-25% off is ideal. Anything less is really not much of a bargain when you consider the avg contract held is about 10yrs. Typical 100pt contract is only saving $150-200/yr. at current “Corona”discounts.

That assumes you get nothing for it when you resell it in 10 years, correct?

 

[chalee94]

That's one interpretation.

The other is that they cannot move points between different unit sizes, only within the same unit size in different time of the year. For example, increasing December to decrease September is legitimate, increase a 1BR to decrease a 2BR is not.

I have seen that argument but wasn't sure if the ship had sailed after the SSR/THV re-allocations...

 

[KAT4DISNEY]

No reason to not believe him. He's been with DVC for 25 years.

lol - that may make them the worse. My guide had retired and I ended up with a very long employed DVC sales person of the 25 year range too. Twice he had to call me back with the news that what he said could be done couldn't be. Nope - length with the company doesn't automatically mean they get it right unfortunately.