How is FP+ making other lines longer?

[WillAustin]

But do they ?

You are only counting on a 1:1 visit.

Sure, if a visitor books a once in a lifetime trip and doesn't know to try and get discounts, etc. They pay more per trip. But, I started going a few years ago, first for 8 days. Now we are going for 15 days, and we generally know we do this every year. We spend and continue to spend far more than a once in a life timer, because we go back, for longer and longer each year.

There are people here who go multiple times a year. No first timer, no matter what they spend, can compete with that.

You are correct. They don't. That line of thinking relies on a flawed assumption that there will always be another "new" visitor to take the place of any lost repeat customer. They aren't turning an endless supply of people away at the parks or resorts every day.

Repeat guests are already coming back at a premium because there are no acquisition costs associated with them. Spending that would have been needed to attract those customers goes directly into the gross margin of the revenue.

A loyal repeat customer brings in far more revenue over time than several one-time customers. In addition to multiple trips and brand loyalty, they are also "influencers" giving considerable word-of-mouth promotion to family and friends.

 

[ilovemk76]

If this is true, we're all screwed. People will stop booking the entire party, and instead, they'll book 1 person into each ride they want, and use that person as the "scanner" to get the others in via FP "for free". In other words, a 4 person party could reserve 12 different FP+ rides/times (3 each person), and piggyback on each other's bands. It would take a little planning but it would be very easily done. You wanna ride Soarin 4 times with FP+? Easy, all 4 of you simply book your own Soarin FP+ at different times and take the others in with you.

Disney-sanctioned exploits, that's the last thing FP+ needs. But if it's really happening it explains some things.

Not really.

The 1st scan could show the # in the party and the second would be each person. This technique will get the FP+ bottleneck moved from the 1st scanner to the second.

 

[mom2rtk]

You are correct. They don't. That line of thinking relies on a flawed assumption that there will always be another "new" visitor to take the place of any lost repeat customer. They aren't turning an endless supply of people away at the parks or resorts every day.

A loyal repeat customer brings in more revenue over time than several one-time customers. In addition to multiple trips and brand loyalty, they are also "influencers" giving considerable word-of-mouth promotion to family and friends.

It also assumes that the parks reach capacity most days of the year, precipitating the need to choose one sort of guest over the other.

Believe me. Disney wants ALL of us to keep going.

 

[morethananyonex]

The theory that Disney wants new guests and once in a lifetime guests instead of loyal visitors only makes sense if resorts are booked to capacity and parks are filled to capacity.

There is nothing stopping those first time and only time guests from coming now in addition to the loyal frequent guests. What makes people think double or triple the amount of those guests are going to start coming to "replace" repeat visitors?

Until Disney has to close its gates daily, they need all types of guests. Repeat guests rarely take up the spot of a one time guest who will spend more in that vacation but much less over a lifetime.

 

[JimmyV]

Now we are going for 15 days, and we generally know we do this every year. We spend and continue to spend far more than a once in a life timer, because we go back, for longer and longer each year.

There are people here who go multiple times a year. No first timer, no matter what they spend, can compete with that.

How many people who go for 15 days do so in a Value instead of a Deluxe hotel? Compare that to 3 families who are first timers who want to "do it right" and stay 5 nights each (consecutively) at the Grand Floridian. The room at the Value will generate 15 x $V. The room at the Deluxe will generate 3 x (5 x $D). As for park tickets, because the prices rise so minimally as the number of days are increased, Disney makes far more money from three consecutive 5 night trips than it does from one family staying for 15 days. Food costs are probably a constant, though the three first time families might be inclined to splurge more while they are "doing it right". But that is just a guest. Disney loves the certainty of repeat business, no doubt. But there is no question that multiple short stays will generate more revenue than one extended stay. At some point, Disney will view people who stay for 15 days as squatters!

 

[ilovemk76]

The theory that Disney wants new guests and once in a lifetime guests instead of loyal visitors only makes sense if resorts are booked to capacity and parks are filled to capacity.

There is nothing stopping those first time and only time guests from coming now in addition to the loyal frequent guests. What makes people think double or triple the amount of those guests are going to start coming to "replace" repeat visitors?

Until Disney has to close its gates daily, they need all types of guests. Repeat guests rarely take up the spot of a one time guest who will spend more in that vacation but much less over a lifetime.

As the person above you stated, they want both groups.

Many repeaters seem to think they are more important than the first timers and infrequent guests, but they are not. They are just another category of visitors.

Being an AP holder and obviously a repeater, I know that we make our money go farther per day. I have gone with many first timers. They always spend more freely than we do. Their burn rate per day is higher than ours.

 

[mom2rtk]

How many people who go for 15 days do so in a Value instead of a Deluxe hotel? Compare that to 3 families who are first timers who want to "do it right" and stay 5 nights each (consecutively) at the Grand Floridian. The room at the Value will generate 15 x $V. The room at the Deluxe will generate 3 x (5 x $D). As for park tickets, because the prices rise so minimally as the number of days are increased, Disney makes far more money from three consecutive 5 night trips than it does from one family staying for 15 days. Food costs are probably a constant, though the three first time families might be inclined to splurge more while they are "doing it right". But that is just a guest. Disney loves the certainty of repeat business, no doubt. But there is no question that multiple short stays will generate more revenue than one extended stay. At some point, Disney will view people who stay for 15 days as squatters!

I do think there's a degree of that. But for it to matter they must have their resorts at or near capacity most nights. Is that the case?

I assume that was the case at DLR (which is a far easier proposition with only 3 onsite hotels to fill) as they now will not sell a park ticket above 5 days (unless you want to jump to an AP). I really do feel like they are telling people that after 5 days they are ready for them to leave.

(Initially the shorter park ticket was a fraud prevention measure, but they now have photos associated with each multi-day ticket so no longer an issue).

 

[morethananyonex]

As the person above you stated, they want both groups. Many repeaters seem to think they are more important than the first timers and infrequent guests, but they are not. They are just another category of visitors. Being an AP holder and obviously a repeater, I know that we make our money go farther per day. I have gone with many first timers. They always spend more freely than we do. Their burn rate per day is higher than ours.

That's what I said as well.

I'm not implying repeat guests are most important, but that until Disney is full to capacity and can be selective about who they want to visit, they need everyone.

The idea that Disney wants to get rid of repeat guests in favour of first timers doesn't make sense. What I think is probably the truth is it may seem that way sometimes from a repeat guests perspective because Disney doesn't have to work to keep us and on the other hand they have to put effort into getting rid of us.

 

[JimmyV]

I do think there's a degree of that. But for it to matter they must have their resorts at or near capacity most nights. Is that the case?

It isn't really a matter of "must".
The Deluxes aren't close to capacity most of the time. But with prices that are 5 times higher than the Values, there is a lot of margin for error. Unlike "real world" deluxe hotels where luxury and service come at a cost that explains (if not justifies) the price, the level of luxury and service at Disney Deluxes is only marginally higher than Moderates and Values. People pay for location which is free. So even if the Deluxes are running at 60% they are doing fine. They certainly want those numbers up above 80%, but the hotels' existence doesn't depend on it.

 

[mom2rtk]

It isn't really a matter of "must".
The Deluxes aren't close to capacity most of the time. But with prices that are 5 times higher than the Values, there is a lot of margin for error. Unlike "real world" deluxe hotels where luxury and service come at a cost that explains (if not justifies) the price, the level of luxury and service at Disney Deluxes is only marginally higher than Moderates and Values. People pay for location which is free. So even if the Deluxes are running at 60% they are doing fine. They certainly want those numbers up above 80%, but the hotels' existence doesn't depend on it.

That is precisely why they have absolutely no need to value one group over another. If they aren't pursuing both ends of the spectrum, then someone in marketing isn't doing their job.

 

[mom2rtk]

That's what I said as well.

I'm not implying repeat guests are most important, but that until Disney is full to capacity and can be selective about who they want to visit, they need everyone.

The idea that Disney wants to get rid of repeat guests in favour of first timers doesn't make sense. What I think is probably the truth is it may seem that way sometimes from a repeat guests perspective because Disney doesn't have to work to keep us and on the other hand they have to put effort into getting rid of us.

Yes, it's not that loyal repeaters think they are more important. It's that so many keep telling the loyal repeaters that Disney doesn't need them, that the golden goose (i.e. first timer) is all Disney cares about.

That makes for some heated online discussions, but isn't accurate. I think Disney has missed the mark with FP+, but I also think they usually get stuff like this right. And I can guarantee they value BOTH groups.

 

[Disneylover99]

If I understand the reports, they are only requiring a single Mickey tap at the first Mickey to prevent the lines from backing up into the parks, but everyone will still need to tap the second Mickey at the ride boarding area.

My experience has been the opposite. We've always had to tap at the first Mickey, but have often been ushered past the second Mickey in order to board a ride quickly.

I really can't imagine how congested and confusing this would be in the queue if people were only asked to tap the second Mickey only to be told they didn't have a valid FP. What will they do with those people. Send them pushing back through the line?

 

[DPCummerbund]

We know that Disney wants first timers AND repeat visitors.

Perhaps more importantly, they want first timers to BECOME repeat visitors.

Almost everyone in the world has heard of Walt Disney World. Almost everyone likes the idea of coming to Walt Disney World. However, many people have reasons / objections to choosing WDW as their vacation. Disney undoubtedly does a lot of research into why people choose to go elsewhere. I would not be surprised if "long lines" is one of those reasons.

Reports in this thread (and other places) are stating that newbies and infrequent visitors are loving FP+. Some of these people probably planned their current trip as a "once in a lifetime" event, just something to take their kids to see once, and are now discovering that they really ENJOY it, and want to come back.They're having more fun than they thought they would, FP+ means that they're guaranteed 3 headline rides with short/nonexistent lines, etc.

Turning first-time visitors into repeat guests is, for Disney, the best thing in the world.

 

[JimmyV]

We know that Disney wants first timers AND repeat visitors.

Perhaps more importantly, they want first timers to BECOME repeat visitors.

...Reports in this thread (and other places) are stating that newbies and infrequent visitors are loving FP+. Some of these people probably planned their current trip as a "once in a lifetime" event, just something to take their kids to see once, and are now discovering that they really ENJOY it, and want to come back.They're having more fun than they thought they would, FP+ means that they're guaranteed 3 headline rides with short/nonexistent lines, etc.

It's really hard to draw conclusions here because demographics no doubt play a large role. I don't pretend that what I am hearing is universal, but most of the reports and feedback I am getting from recent first time returnees is that they don't understand what my family sees in WDW and that they are never going back. (And this has nothing to do with FP+. It is a result of the overall experience). The consistent complaint is crowding, wait times and price paid for value received. These are upper, upper-middle class people who have no problem paying $500 per night for a hotel room or villa. But when they pay that much, they expect a Ritz Carlton, Four Seasons, Phoenician, Aspen, type of vacation and waiting 90 minutes for Soarin' isn't grabbing them. I can't really tell you the last time I heard a first timer tell me that they were hooked and would become annual regulars or anything close to it. This is the demographic that Disney is doing the worst at capturing, IMO. But again, the sample size of people who share their experiences with me is miniscule, albeit consistent.

 

[WillAustin]

Turning first-time visitors into repeat guests is, for Disney, the best thing in the world.

Yes, maintaining a repeat loyal customer is much cheaper than attracting a new one.

But I don't believe they are significantly changing the experience of first-timers with the FP+ changes. Attractions that normally have long lines still have them and those that didn't now do.

There have always been plenty of first-time guests that turned into repeat guests.

 

[mom2rtk]

It's really hard to draw conclusions here because demographics no doubt play a large role. I don't pretend that what I am hearing is universal, but most of the reports and feedback I am getting from recent first time returnees is that they don't understand what my family sees in WDW and that they are never going back. (And this has nothing to do with FP+. It is a result of the overall experience). The consistent complaint is crowding, wait times and price paid for value received. These are upper, upper-middle class people who have no problem paying $500 per night for a hotel room or villa. But when they pay that much, they expect a Ritz Carlton, Four Seasons, Phoenician, Aspen, type of vacation and waiting 90 minutes for Soarin' isn't grabbing them. I can't really tell you the last time I heard a first timer tell me that they were hooked and would become annual regulars or anything close to it. This is the demographic that Disney is doing the worst at capturing, IMO. But again, the sample size of people who share their experiences with me is miniscule, albeit consistent.

I would guess that's the sort of feedback Disney has been getting from first time guests for some time. I also think it's possible that Disney put FP+ in as their "fix" to that problem. I wonder how many first time guests expressed exasperation over the line to TSMM being so long? Good thing they have now "fixed" it.

 

[WillAustin]

I wonder how many first time guests expressed exasperation over the line to TSMM being so long? Good thing they have now "fixed" it.

Based on a lot of comments I've seen, that was significant enough to be a main reason to like FP+, no matter how it affected anything else.

 

[JimmyV]

But I don't believe they are significantly changing the experience of first-timers with the FP+ changes. Attractions that normally have long lines still have them and those that didn't now do.

Agree. There is a tendency to want to overplay the impact of FP+ on first timers. By definition, they have nothing to compare their experience to. If they loved their vacation, one could conclude that it was because of FP+. But there is no "control group" against which to test this. How do we know that these same people wouldn't have had just as positive experience under some other paradigm? (5 FP per day. Hopping as an option. No FP system at all. FP-. ) I can't imagine that there are too many first timers who loved their vacation with FP+ who would have hated it otherwise, or hated their vacation with FP+ who would have loved it had it not been in place. In other words, it is difficult to conclude that FP+ is the determining factor in overall enjoyment either way. If you enjoyed WDW, the fast pass system employed isn't going to be the reason why and vice versa.

 

[JimmyV]

Based on a lot of comments I've seen, that was significant enough to be a main reason to like FP+, no matter how it affected anything else.

But that first timer might have liked FP- just as much for the same reason. The percentage of first timers who utilized FP+ by accessing kiosks on the "day of" is probably very high either because they were staying off site or because they didn't fully understand the pre-booking concept. So people who booked FP+ on the "day of" and loved it would have likely appreciated FP- just as much. In the end, first timers probably love any fast pass system and the actual details are less important to them. I think the positive features of FP+ become more and more apparent the more frequently one visits. (And so do its warts.)

 

[WillAustin]

But that first timer might have liked FP- just as much for the same reason. The percentage of first timers who utilized FP+ by accessing kiosks on the "day of" is probably very high either because they were staying off site or because they didn't fully understand the pre-booking concept. So people who booked FP+ on the "day of" and loved it would have likely appreciated FP- just as much. In the end, first timers probably love any fast pass system and the actual details are less important to them. I think the positive features of FP+ become more and more apparent the more frequently one visits. (And so do its warts.)

I agree. I was being a bit facetious with the idea that someone who slept in would love FP+, if only for the ability to book one for TSMM.