How hard is it really at 7Months?

[CrystalGill]

Hi Everyone,

Newbie here! I am interested in purchasing a resale contract in the next year or two. I have a 15 month old and another on the way so our first trip for them will be January 2022 so that is the reason for the delay in the purchase. I have been really doing my homework and I see a lot of people restating the importance of "buying where you want to stay" and I get it. However, I love hotels and a lot of the appeal for me to purchase DVC is the flexibility of being able to stay at more than just your home resort. If I were to purchase enough points to allow me the opportunity to stay at a 1-bedroom how hard is it really to be able to book something at another resort at 7 months without a split stay for a week, say in Adventure or Choice Seasons? I want to stay at them all so I wouldn't be super picky, but I am hoping that my only places to stay as a member aren't going to be my home resort at 11 months and Saratoga Springs at 7 months. I live in Palm Beach County, FL so I have a lot of flexibility in being able to travel and I anticipate coming once a year for a week or maybe doing two long weekends every year.

Thanks in advance everyone!

 

[aoconnor]

The hardest time to book at the 7 month mark is October through Marathon Weekend in early January. Even still, if you have enough points for a one bedroom you should have a pretty good shot at most resorts in that high season (maybe not the very small resorts like BCV and VGF). For the rest of the year, January - August you should have very good availability for one bedroom at just about all resorts, except holiday weeks.

I go with the slightly less strict mantra of "buy where you don't mind staying". I bought AKV and LOVE it there. Do I like some resorts like VGF and BCV a little more? Probably, but not enough to pay 40% more. Happy to get those on occasion and be at AKV otherwise.

 

[we"reofftoneverland]

Hi Everyone,

Newbie here! I am interested in purchasing a resale contract in the next year or two. I have a 15 month old and another on the way so our first trip for them will be January 2022 so that is the reason for the delay in the purchase. I have been really doing my homework and I see a lot of people restating the importance of "buying where you want to stay" and I get it. However, I love hotels and a lot of the appeal for me to purchase DVC is the flexibility of being able to stay at more than just your home resort. If I were to purchase enough points to allow me the opportunity to stay at a 1-bedroom how hard is it really to be able to book something at another resort at 7 months without a split stay for a week, say in Adventure or Choice Seasons? I want to stay at them all so I wouldn't be super picky, but I am hoping that my only places to stay as a member aren't going to be my home resort at 11 months and Saratoga Springs at 7 months. I live in Palm Beach County, FL so I have a lot of flexibility in being able to travel and I anticipate coming once a year for a week or maybe doing two long weekends every year.

Thanks in advance everyone!

We are new owners but have bookings throughout the next year. In my personal experience, summer was the easiest to get a reservation at 7 months (most choice available.) The seasons you are looking at are definitely harder, and if you are looking for studios, I would say buy where you want to stay. We were waiting to the 7 month mark to book a January stay (in a 1 bed, not studio, and even the 1 beds were going) but we went ahead and booked our home resort yesterday because every time I look at what's available, the choices disappear. We generally are not interested in studios and are flexible. You definitely have to be that way if you plan on booking at 7 as opposed to 11 months. But I am sure others with more experience have more insight!

 

[stewart715]

Split stays at 7 months are generally doable, especially in a 1 bedroom. But it might also not be. It's really a toss up. DVC has nearly sold out Copper Creek, just opened Riviera and has plans for another one (Reflections) shortly thereafter. The more people that enter the system, the more the availability at 7 months will dwindle. Which again, is why it is important to buy where you want to stay worst case scenario (not necessarily where you want to stay always). This way, at 11 months you always have a room you like booked rather than a room you sorta like. The last thing you want is to invest a lot of money into DVC and be forced to stay somewhere other than where you want to.

That being said, split stays will generally be easiest at 7 months, especially if you're willing to try multiple resorts. Beach Club is probably one that would be impossible at 7 months. Boardwalk hard during food and wine, but better odds than Beach Club (not by much though). Weekends in general will be hardest to find rooms.

Anyways, over time, this will only get worse. I expect several more resorts to be built into DVC within the next 10 years. Home resort is increasingly becoming more important.

 

[CarolMN]

Currently, you most likely would not have a problem getting a WDW DVC 1 bedroom at 7 months UNLESS you wanted one of the less expensive booking categories (such as standard at BLT or BWV, or concierge & value at AKV. You may also have a problem at VGF & CCV/BRV for some dates in Adventure & Choice seasons).

Remember that resale points cannot be used to book Riviera or any future DVC resorts.

 

[DaveNan]

A couple of members have put in a lot of time to create these charts. They were updated last year. I have found them to be accurate enough to use for planning.


https://www.disboards.com/threads/p...-studios-1-bedrooms-june-2018-update.3689931/

 

[Doberge]

Split stays at 7 months are generally doable, especially in a 1 bedroom. But it might also not be. It's really a toss up. DVC has nearly sold out Copper Creek, just opened Riviera and has plans for another one (Reflections) shortly thereafter. The more people that enter the system, the more the availability at 7 months will dwindle. Which again, is why it is important to buy where you want to stay worst case scenario (not necessarily where you want to stay always). This way, at 11 months you always have a room you like booked rather than a room you sorta like. The last thing you want is to invest a lot of money into DVC and be forced to stay somewhere other than where you want to.

That being said, split stays will generally be easiest at 7 months, especially if you're willing to try multiple resorts. Beach Club is probably one that would be impossible at 7 months. Boardwalk hard during food and wine, but better odds than Beach Club (not by much though). Weekends in general will be hardest to find rooms.

Anyways, over time, this will only get worse. I expect several more resorts to be built into DVC within the next 10 years. Home resort is increasingly becoming more important.

Agree with most of this, but the flip side is that each new one also increases available room inventory. For example, someone with a BCV reservation will be able to book Riviera, Reflections, etc as additional options. In theory it could open more rooms at the Legacy 14. I don't think rooms will open and stay open, but each new resort creates more movement and opportunity to snag a different reservation.

The biggest hurdle DVD created was the bungalows and cabins as point hogs. We're already seeing copper creek studios as difficult to book at 11 months. There are so many people competing for fewer "realistically available" rooms. Thankfully Riviera doesn't have this nonsense.

 

[_auroraborealis_]

but the flip side is that each new one also increases available room inventory

I think this statement may be misleading for a new member or would be member. Every new unit created also creates new points in the DVC system, and new owners competing for units at the most popular resorts. Perhaps a enw resort will be one of the popular resorts. Or maybe it won't be.

So new inventory just changes the basis of competition, but can really add to the issue, rather than make easier. Poly Bungalow and CCV Cabin points are prime examples of where points created just increase pressures on most unit types, but especially studios, as you cite. And that's because the new units add points to the system.

Riviera's nonsense looks to be Tower Studios, although the imbalance will be less. Long term, the imbalance will be resale demand.

 

[RamblinWreck]

The hardest time to book at the 7 month mark is October through Marathon Weekend in early January. Even still, if you have enough points for a one bedroom you should have a pretty good shot at most resorts in that high season (maybe not the very small resorts like BCV and VGF). For the rest of the year, January - August you should have very good availability for one bedroom at just about all resorts, except holiday weeks.

I go with the slightly less strict mantra of "buy where you don't mind staying". I bought AKV and LOVE it there. Do I like some resorts like VGF and BCV a little more? Probably, but not enough to pay 40% more. Happy to get those on occasion and be at AKV otherwise.

I'm not so sure that an AKV contract is any cheaper than a VGF contract.

The upfront cost is obviously significantly less (~$105 per point vs ~$155), so that could be a factor depending on what you can afford to spend up front, but the annual dues are significantly higher ($7.44 per point vs $6.39) and the contract expires 7 years sooner. If you assume that the gap between VGF and AKV dues will always be as large as it is now, a resale VGF contract will save you a little bit per trip over a same sized AKV contract on both a net-present-value and nominal basis.

 

[kniquy]

If I were to purchase enough points to allow me the opportunity to stay at a 1-bedroom how hard is it really to be able to book something at another resort at 7 months without a split stay

The DVC "seasons" you want to travel in are the lowest DVC points time so with that it is the busiest time for DVC -- things book up by owners during the 11-7 month window so there will be limited options come the 7 month window. For example -- I have been tracking 7 month availability for my own personal curiosity. today when checking for 7 nights starting 11/24 - the only on property rooms were SSR 1 BR (both preferred and standard). No studios anywhere and no other 1BR. So yes the competition is very high during this time, so you would want to book your home resort at 11 months then at 7 months you could see what would be available. This way you are ensured a room and hopefully you could change to something else. Now if you were talking about the time frame of mid January to mid September then availability is much better, but the points cost are higher too.

You do want to buy where you want to stay, but it is tough to really know where you want to stay unless you experience each resort. That is why part of the decision making needs to be that you buy into a resort that fits your budget, where you can buy a good amount of points and you don't mind staying.

As for your desired travel seasons keep in mind what works for you right now with your younger family will likely change as your children enter school and start getting involved in sports. Then your travel availability will be limited to summers and school vacations.

 

[aoconnor]

I'm not so sure that an AKV contract is any cheaper than a VGF contract.

The upfront cost is obviously significantly less (~$105 per point vs ~$155), so that could be a factor depending on what you can afford to spend up front, but the annual dues are significantly higher ($7.44 per point vs $6.39) and the contract expires 7 years sooner. If you assume that the gap between VGF and AKV dues will always be as large as it is now, a resale VGF contract will save you a little bit per trip over a same sized AKV contract on both a net-present-value and nominal basis.

I'm an investor and don't value my money at 0%, so saving 30%+ upfront is a huge difference. Even applying a de minimus 3% opportunity cost, AKV works out to $13.34pp and VGF is $14.47pp (initial cost/ years remaining + dues + opp. cost). Plus the point charts at VGF are roughly 50% higher (not knocking it.. still planning to buy some points there).

When I bought AKV for $77pp VGF was $140pp so the difference was even greater (over 80%). You make a good point though that duration and dues are more important than the face price per point

 

[TexasChick123]

Booking at 7 months can be real hit or miss. A lot of your success rate will depend on the length of your vacations. If you’re traveling for more than a couple of days, there’s a high likelihood that some but not all of your days will be available to book at 7 months. Also, a lot of larger point owners are able to walk their reservation at 7 months and shut out the smaller owners for popular times. I do agree that summer is one of the easiest times to book somewhere else at 7 months. I’ve booked at my non-home resorts 3x now. Two of those weren’t in the summer, and I had to WL and stalk for both. I got the Poly LV studio for 1 summer night pretty easily, but it was only for 1 night. My BWV standard 1-bedroom has to be wait listed and stalked for a single night in October. My AKV savanna view had to be wait listed for the least night of a 4 night trip.

I agree with “buy where you don’t mind staying”. I just wanted to add that the 7 month switch can be really painful, and you may never get all of your days. If you never expect it to be easy, then you’re pleasantly surprised if it is.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I'm an investor and don't value my money at 0%, so saving 30%+ upfront is a huge difference. Even applying a de minimus 3% opportunity cost, AKV works out to $13.34pp and VGF is $14.47pp (initial cost/ years remaining + dues + opp. cost). Plus the point charts at VGF are roughly 50% higher (not knocking it.. still planning to buy some points there).

When I bought AKV for $77pp VGF was $140pp so the difference was even greater (over 80%). You make a good point though that duration and dues are more important than the face price per point

I'm setting my opportunity cost at the same rate that annual dues increase, for simplicity. I believe over time these have increased at about 3-4% annually. Because the annual dues make up 65%+ of the total NPV of your cash outflows over the life of the contract, the 16.4% increase in annual dues on an AKV contract over a VGF contract more than make up for the 30% break in upfront cost, especially since the upfront cost is also applied to 7 fewer years of use. I have an equal sized VGF contract coming out 5% less expensive than an AKV contract of the same size, on a "per year" basis. The VGF contract comes out to be 13% more expensive over the life of each respective contract though, which might be what you were referring to, since you are paying 7 extra years of dues. But I think "per year" is a better way to compare contracts apples to apples. A contract that gets you 18% more vacations and only costs you 13% more per point in aggregate sounds like a better deal to me.

The point chart though is absolutely a valid concern if you're talking about staying at AKV vs VGF though, and that would make a huge difference because you wouldn't need to buy as many points to begin with. But if you wanted to stay at AKV and felt comfortable booking at the 7 month window to do it, an argument could be made that you could actually save money by doing it with a VGF contract rather than an AKV contract (this argument would require that AKV continues to have significantly higher annual dues. I have no idea if that will hold true or not).

 

[stewart715]

Agree with most of this, but the flip side is that each new one also increases available room inventory. For example, someone with a BCV reservation will be able to book Riviera, Reflections, etc as additional options. In theory it could open more rooms at the Legacy 14. I don't think rooms will open and stay open, but each new resort creates more movement and opportunity to snag a different reservation.

The biggest hurdle DVD created was the bungalows and cabins as point hogs. We're already seeing copper creek studios as difficult to book at 11 months. There are so many people competing for fewer "realistically available" rooms. Thankfully Riviera doesn't have this nonsense.

Good point. But, unless the resorts they add are considered 'premium' DVC (like Beach Club), it won't help as much. Time will tell though. Good point tho.

 

[10CJ]

The point chart though is absolutely a valid concern if you're talking about staying at AKV vs VGF though, and that would make a huge difference because you wouldn't need to buy as many points to begin with. But if you wanted to stay at AKV and felt comfortable booking at the 7 month window to do it, an argument could be made that you could actually save money by doing it with a VGF contract rather than an AKV contract (this argument would require that AKV continues to have significantly higher annual dues. I have no idea if that will hold true or not).

I think you definitely have to factor in the point chart. You need a lot more points to book a similar length stay at VGF compared to AKV.

 

[RamblinWreck]

I think you definitely have to factor in the point chart. You need a lot more points to book a similar length stay at VGF compared to AKV.

For sure

Without a doubt, it’s more expensive to buy a contract that will get a 1 week stay in a 1 bedroom every year at the Grand Floridian than one that will get you a 1 week stay in the same accommodations at AKV.

But if you’re talking about a 150 point VGF contract vs a 150 point AKV contract... the financials are going to work out about the same, and maybe even slightly favor VGF.

I'm not saying buy one over the other. My original point was just that I'm not sure it's a given that an AKV contract is actually more affordable than a VGF one of the same size. This thread was about booking away from your home resort at the 7 month window, so in that light I'd be viewing my purchase in terms of what's the most affordable on a per point (per year) basis. Point charts wouldn't really factor in to that decision making process.

 

[zavandor]

I have had great success with switching at 7 months in Adventure season. I travel only in January and September for the low cost requirements and ease of booking at 7 months. Early December is Adventure season but also the highest demand for DVC, switching during those 2 weeks is like winning the lottery. But:
- flexibility is key: in travel dates, resort choice, lenght of stay, availability to do a split stay
- you MUST buy a resort you like, there are times then you won't be able to switch (for example, all RunDisney events and some holidays, like 7/4)

Regardless of the absurdities that DVC has said recently (that 1BR are in very high demand), the reality if that they book last and are often available at 7 months.

 

[CaliAdventurer]

We book one or two beds- never studios and find that the higher the price, the greater the availability. If your strategy is to have a lot of points, it does work. At this point i have stayed at all the resorts but the eastern coast properties that way. I don’t even look at seasons or whatever. BUT, still the 7mo window is getting more difficult by the day and in the end I am sooo grateful that I heeded the advice here to buy where you want to stay. With future direct buyers being able to book into the Classic 14 and future resales not able to go outside of it and of course, rental demand together with all the investments in the parks, I think it’s safe to say the 7 mo window will become tragic very soon.
Buy where you prefer to stay!

 

[Jay S]

We have owned at SSR since 2012 and have never stayed there. We took the path that involved acquiring as many points as possible the lowest cost. We have been able to stay in 2brs, 1 brs, and studios and have stayed at the hard to get beach club 4 times.The only problem we have ever had is beach club and boardwalk during food and wine. I will say I have had to stalk the availability tool a few times but it has always worked out.

I would say buy as many points as possible!