I think it's hard to say with Oregon. Portland metro area through Salem/Eugene is pretty liberal and will fall heavily towards Obama, much to my dismay. I don't know if it was mentioned or not but there was an Obama rally in Portland over the weekend with 75,000+ people. (including some of my family, who's names won't be mentioned, I'm just trying to forgive them) They're expecting a better than 50% turn out statewide. But outside of the metro areas it's a toss up.
Yes, the polls seem to be mixed too, but the latest poll (I think DISUNC quoted one earlier) have him winning by less than 5 points. Well, we will see.