Here now, and here is the problem

[wisblue]

One huge fallacy that I see in the discussion about what will happen in the future is lumping all of the parks together as if they will all have the same patterns.

Most significantly, the MK should be affected dramatically less than the other parks because it has a lot more and a much greater variety of desirable attractions than the other parks. Therefore, there will not be the same demand for any one attraction like there is for TSMM and Soarin.

I am skeptical that even TSMM or Soarin will be booked for FP+ 60 days out because there simply aren't that many people who are willing and able to make their plans that far in advance, no matter how many notices they get. A lot of people are just chronic procrastinators, like the people who file their tax returns on April 15 even though they have a big refund coming. You also have to remember that not everyone who attends a park even cares to go on all of the headliner attractions, especially the higher speed rides.

I am that much more skeptical that anything at MK will be booked that far in advance. There are a significant percentage of guests who have no interest in the mountains, and a significant number who have much less or no interest in the character greetings or dark rides. I know of families with smaller children who spend almost their entire day at MK on character greetings. Therefore, even if everyone planning to go to the MK on a given day tried to book their FP+ reservations at the same time, not everyone would be competing for the same things. Disney can also manipulate the end result by how they allocate FP+ and with tiering, if needed.

I am also not going to get worked up about the reports of long lines to get into the FP lines. First of all, these reports seem to be inconsistent at best, making me wonder if these lines come and go based on one person or group causing a holdup, and whether people are exaggerating the impact to support whatever conclusion they want to reach. Even if there are longer lines to get through the first checkpoint, that doesn't necessarily mean a longer wait to get on the ride because the FP line has always had some backup when it reaches the merge point with the standby line.

Maybe more importantly, while everyone is focusing on the technology aspects of this test, I think it's safe to assume that Disney is also working on the physical efficiency of moving guests through the lines.

We will see.

 

[LuvFFPlus]

I agree Wisblue. Different capacity problem for different parks. With software everything can be adjusted with data backing up the reason for the adjustment.
I will wait and see what's coming.

 

[wisblue]

Disney has an existing capacity issue that FP+ has made very obvious. Did Universal have one before they implemented their express pass and FOTL for resort guests? I would guess Universal was trying to fill capacity, as if I'm not mistaken this stuff was up and running before HP was pulling tons of people over to Universal.

It's a totally different animal.

Based on a recent article on easywdw, Universal STILL simply does not draw the crowds that WDW does. They can afford to give some guests unlimited front of the line access because it doesn't result in prohibitive standby lines that would prevent a significant number of their guests from being able to ride something once.

Universal will get a boost again when they open the second HP area, but barring a major shift in behavior, it does not have the same broad based appeal WDW has. I love Universal, and I realize that for a lot of people it may be a more desirable destination than WDW. But, no matter how you slice it, Universal is a distant second to WDW in overall popularity and it's likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future, even if every poster on the DIS that hates FP+ takes their business to Universal and never comes back.

 

[LuvFFPlus]

Disney has an existing capacity issue that FP+ has made very obvious. Did Universal have one before they implemented their express pass and FOTL for resort guests? I would guess Universal was trying to fill capacity, as if I'm not mistaken this stuff was up and running before HP was pulling tons of people over to Universal.

It's a totally different animal.

I was thinking in terms of how most of the guests going to Universal to visit HP. Would that create a similar rush for HP related attractions while the rest of attractions seeing a low crowd? Their wait time on HP during the holidays is still long.

 

[morethananyonex]

Based on a recent article on easywdw, Universal STILL simply does not draw the crowds that WDW does. They can afford to give some guests unlimited front of the line access because it doesn't result in prohibitive standby lines that would prevent a significant number of their guests from being able to ride something once.

Universal will get a boost again when they open the second HP area, but barring a major shift in behavior, it does not have the same broad based appeal WDW has. I love Universal, and I realize that for a lot of people it may be a more desirable destination than WDW. But, no matter how you slice it, Universal is a distant second to WDW in overall popularity and it's likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future, even if every poster on the DIS that hates FP+ takes their business to Universal and never comes back.

Exactly why Universal is able to offer their FOTL and Express Passes. Disney has too many people for the amount of headliners they have, especially at parks that aren't MK. Universal has enough attractions for the amount of people they have to allow those kind of programs to exist. Even then, don't they not allow FOTL and Express Pass on the HP headliner?

I don't think it's reasonable to assume an unlimited FP for purchase is definitely coming, unless it's unlimited with strings attached (like excluding Soarin' or TSMM).

 

[LuvFFPlus]

Exactly why Universal is able to offer their FOTL and Express Passes. Disney has too many people for the amount of headliners they have, especially at parks that aren't MK. Universal has enough attractions for the amount of people they have to allow those kind of programs to exist. Even then, don't they not allow FOTL and Express Pass on the HP headliner?

I don't think it's reasonable to assume an unlimited FP for purchase is definitely coming, unless it's unlimited with strings attached (like excluding Soarin' or TSMM).

Unlimited with strings attached sounds workable. I just cannot shake the idea that Disney will sell something out of this system.

 

[clsteve]

I am skeptical that even TSMM or Soarin will be booked for FP+ 60 days out because there simply aren't that many people who are willing and able to make their plans that far in advance, no matter how many notices they get. A lot of people are just chronic procrastinators, like the people who file their tax returns on April 15 even though they have a big refund coming. You also have to remember that not everyone who attends a park even cares to go on all of the headliner attractions, especially the higher speed rides.

We will see.

We will definitely see, but I think you might be seriously underestimating Disney Marketing. Once they get to fire off the campaign, wine, dine and train the TA's/CMs - don't you think every one of them is going to be pushing it and making those FP+ reservations for them? Just like they do now with ADR's?

This board is rife with posts about how excited people are to score a specific ADR 180 days out. I just think Disney has too much invested in this not to pull out all of the big guns on this as an advantage to planning.

 

[morethananyonex]

Unlimited with strings attached sounds workable. I just cannot shake the idea that Disney will sell something out of this system.

For me at least, I would not even entertain the idea of buying a FP+ add on that excludes the headliners. For a park like Epcot, excluding even one ride makes the whole thing useless to me. Same goes for DHS. There's just not enough to do when you start eliminating rides. That's why people are now holding FP+ for Nemo, Captain EO and Journey into Imagination.

I could only see it working (sort of) for MK, and that's with limits being placed on it too.

 

[LuvFFPlus]

For me at least, I would not even entertain the idea of buying a FP+ add on that excludes the headliners. For a park like Epcot, excluding even one ride makes the whole thing useless to me. Same goes for DHS. There's just not enough to do when you start eliminating rides. That's why people are now holding FP+ for Nemo, Captain EO and Journey into Imagination.

I could only see it working (sort of) for MK, and that's with limits being placed on it too.

I was asking at the other post about selling an option to eliminate the tiers. What do you think about that?

 

[Robbi]

My recommendations for a great Disney World trip once FP- is gone:

Vacation at a slow time of year like September and first part of November

Stay for 7 days minimum.

Don't worry about park hopping unless you're interested in seeing the lesser known attractions.

Do not change your schedule the day of unless you don't care about losing your FP to the headliners.

At non busy times you will want to be at the parks at least a half hour before opening..at bust times get there an hour or two ahead. This way you can see the most attractions in a day.

It's still ok to leave for an afternoon break, just make sure you get back in time for your FP+ appointments.

Be prepared for huge lines to get into FP lines. That means bring ponchos.

Work with your kids on proper magic band placement so the line keeps moving.

If you get to the parks in the afternoon, do your FP+ rides and then see a show or leave because you will encounter huge lines for all attractions! unless it's dead in the parks.

Once it's offered go ahead and purchase the unlimited FP no matter how much it costs.

Excellent

Based on a recent article on easywdw, Universal STILL simply does not draw the crowds that WDW does. They can afford to give some guests unlimited front of the line access because it doesn't result in prohibitive standby lines that would prevent a significant number of their guests from being able to ride something once.

Universal will get a boost again when they open the second HP area, but barring a major shift in behavior, it does not have the same broad based appeal WDW has. I love Universal, and I realize that for a lot of people it may be a more desirable destination than WDW. But, no matter how you slice it, Universal is a distant second to WDW in overall popularity and it's likely to stay that way for the foreseeable future, even if every poster on the DIS that hates FP+ takes their business to Universal and never comes back.

Universal has a niche market. There are many of us who, if given a choice, would skip Disney all together and stay onsite at Universal. With each of the changes Disney is making, I'm moving closer to selling my DVC interest.

We have a new grandson and his first trip is in a few months. He would be the reason we'd continue going to WDW. That said, I can stay offsite at nicer accommondations for a lot less money. Then turn around and use the money that I've saved to book a VIP tour. We can "do" Disney in a day this way. I'm not saying that Disney will miss our money in particular but they will begin to notice if their repeat guests begin to drift away.

 

[wdwmom0f3]

We just got back and while I loved using the fast pass +, I'm really not sure what to expect in the future. It was really different this time for us. I did notice long fast pass lines and it wasn't just at the entrance either. They were clearly delayed longer than I can ever remember. I did save time by not running after fast passes and I loved that! Three is just not enough though.

As for the tiered fast passes, that's a bunch of crap especially everywhere but MK where you have plenty of attractions. I hope that they do away with that because that's just not right.

This was our very first visit without the hopper passes because of the fast pass plus and the way I booked the times, and we didn't miss hopping at all. In fact, most every time I hopped before it was mainly to eat at a certain place.

 

[wisblue]

We will definitely see, but I think you might be seriously underestimating Disney Marketing. Once they get to fire off the campaign, wine, dine and train the TA's/CMs - don't you think every one of them is going to be pushing it and making those FP+ reservations for them? Just like they do now with ADR's?

This board is rife with posts about how excited people are to score a specific ADR 180 days out. I just think Disney has too much invested in this not to pull out all of the big guns on this as an advantage to planning.

I think the big difference is the number of people who can eat dinner in one night at a popular restaurant (like BOG) compared to the capacity of a popular ride.

If Soarin has a capacity of 20,000 riders a day, Disney allocates 50% of the capacity to FP+, and 25,000 people visit Epcot in a day, 40 % of all people who visit Epcot that day will have to make their reservations 60 days out to buy up the whole supply. No matter how much. Disney markets it, I don't see that many people acting that early. Some people don't even plan their whole trip that far in advance. And, if there are tiers, even the people who do choose that early will be divided to some extent between Soarin and Test Track, and some people won't care to do either.

Maybe I am underestimating Disney marketing, but I think some people are underestimating Disney's ability to use the data it has about ride capacities and guest behavior to keep the FP+ system from becoming anything close to the all around disaster that some are predicting.

I've said it many times, and still believe, that the biggest impact FP+ will have is on people whose goal is to ride certain attractions multiple times in a day. That will inevitably be more difficult and FP+ will be seen as a negative by those guests. But, I think the number of guests who tour WDW that way is a very small minority, especially among first time guests.

 

[Robo]

I've said it many times, and still believe, that the biggest impact FP+ will have is on people whose goal is to ride certain attractions multiple times in a day. That will inevitably be more difficult and FP+ will be seen as a negative by those guests.


But, I think the number of guests who tour WDW that way is a very small minority, especially among first time guests.

That ignores one of THE most primary of all desires of visiting amusement and theme parks...
to ride your favorites, over and over.

It is as basic as popcorn and balloons.

That desire is especially high at Disney parks and has been a mainstay practice
of guests since 1955.

 

[Colleen27]

I am skeptical to be sure, but I just don't think you can put much stock in all the math since so much of it is based on assumptions. There's also the wildcard of human behavior, which is difficult to predict on any scale. The math is interesting, but reminds me of errant polls just before an election.

I think that depends entirely on which park you're talking about. It doesn't take advanced math or predictive skills to see that the entire daily ride capacity of TSMM is lower than the average daily attendance at Studios. Significantly lower, in fact - 15-16K by most estimates, while Studios annual attendance comes out to a daily average of over 27K per day. Given that only a percentage of total capacity is allocated to FP+, it doesn't take a terribly high FP+ participation rate to consume the entire capacity on average and above average days. Maybe there will be some same-day availability on below-average days but it seems very unlikely that there will be at busier times.

 

[Metro West]

Exactly why Universal is able to offer their FOTL and Express Passes. Disney has too many people for the amount of headliners they have, especially at parks that aren't MK. Universal has enough attractions for the amount of people they have to allow those kind of programs to exist. Even then, don't they not allow FOTL and Express Pass on the HP headliner?

I don't think it's reasonable to assume an unlimited FP for purchase is definitely coming, unless it's unlimited with strings attached (like excluding Soarin' or TSMM).

You are correct...Forbidden Journey does not accept Express and they haven't since it opened. I'm sure that will change one day but not in the near future. However, once Diagon Alley opens at the Studios next summer and the majority of guests want to see that area, maybe Forbidden Journey will finally allow Express access...but I think they will wait and see what the crowds are like before doing that.

Disney has too many people to do any sort of unlimited FP for their hotel guests. If people wanted to purchase it at the parks...like you can at Universal...that would be an option but won't be cheap. Currently...Universal offers unlimited Express access to all onsite guests at the three hotels but you can also purchase unlimited EP at the gates...but again...it's not cheap.

 

[wisblue]

We just got back and while I loved using the fast pass +, I'm really not sure what to expect in the future. It was really different this time for us. I did notice long fast pass lines and it wasn't just at the entrance either. They were clearly delayed longer than I can ever remember. I did save time by not running after fast passes and I loved that! Three is just not enough though.

As for the tiered fast passes, that's a bunch of crap especially everywhere but MK where you have plenty of attractions. I hope that they do away with that because that's just not right.

This was our very first visit without the hopper passes because of the fast pass plus and the way I booked the times, and we didn't miss hopping at all. In fact, most every time I hopped before it was mainly to eat at a certain place.

I think it should be obvious that the fact that Epcot and DHS have so few major attractions is the very reason why tiering of FPs is probably necessary at those parks if Disney wants to allow as many guests as possible to experience the most popular attractions at least once on their whole trip, not just once per day.

Under the FP- system some guests arrived at a park early and worked the system to ride each of the major attractions 2 or 3 or more times each. If their trips lasted for a week or longer, and they did this at one park every day, they could ride one attraction 5 or 6 times or more on their trip. Local AP holders could do this multiple times in a year. Those multiple riders are the people who are most upset by FP+. Disney is essentially forcing them to surrender some of their multiple rides with FPs to allow other guests to enjoy those attractions at least once.

 

[Colleen27]

My recommendations for a great Disney World trip once FP- is gone:

Vacation at a slow time of year like September and first part of November

Stay for 7 days minimum.

Don't worry about park hopping unless you're interested in seeing the lesser known attractions.

Do not change your schedule the day of unless you don't care about losing your FP to the headliners.

At non busy times you will want to be at the parks at least a half hour before opening..at bust times get there an hour or two ahead. This way you can see the most attractions in a day.

It's still ok to leave for an afternoon break, just make sure you get back in time for your FP+ appointments.

Be prepared for huge lines to get into FP lines. That means bring ponchos.

Work with your kids on proper magic band placement so the line keeps moving.

If you get to the parks in the afternoon, do your FP+ rides and then see a show or leave because you will encounter huge lines for all attractions! unless it's dead in the parks.

Once it's offered go ahead and purchase the unlimited FP no matter how much it costs.

I have to wonder if that isn't part of the monetizing strategy for this whole mess... More park days because you can't do as much in each one. Of course, that forgets the point that's been used to argue against a 5th gate for all these years - the relatively fixed week's vacation that American workers get. But with the focus on international guests, maybe they're thinking more about the groups that are coming from all over the world for longer stays but visiting Universal and other Orlando attractions while they're in FL?

I'm pretty confident that we'll never purchase any unlimited FP option - with 5 people it would just add up too quickly, and I'd never be able to "sell" it to my husband ("Look honey, if we just pay a few hundred dollars more we can enjoy the parks the way we used to!" ) even if I could wrap my mind around it myself.

I wonder how Universal handled the capacity issue with their unlimited package. There is a chance that Disney is looking to model something similar to that in the future.

Universal has a combined attendance of about 14 million at their two Orlando parks. Between the two parks I count 29 rides, at least 6 of them commanding headliner status. By comparison, Hollywood Studios sees 10 million guests per year and has 6 rides, only 2 of which could be called headliners. Epcot serves 11 million guests with 8 rides, and again only 2 of which are headliners.

Universal also only has three on-site resorts, all of which don't add up to the number of rooms at Pop Century alone, so offering on-site guests preferred treatment is much more feasible than it could ever be for Disney. For 15+ years now, Disney has been in the resorts and timeshares business with the theme parks getting only secondary attention/investments, while Universal is in the theme park business with resorts as a secondary effort. That is what has created the capacity issue and it doesn't appear they intend to change course at any time in the foreseeable future.

 

[wisblue]

That ignores one of THE most primary of all desires of visiting amusement and theme parks...
to ride your favorites, over and over.

It is as basic as popcorn and balloons.

That desire is especially high at Disney parks and has been a mainstay practice
of guests since 1955.

I think you are overestimating how many people who visit WDW, especially those that are visiting for the first time, feel that way. There are a lot of people who are perfectly satisfied experiencing as many things as possible once, without repeating anything.

If you really believe that riding certain things over and over is the main objective of most people who visit WDW, maybe you should take a step back and realize why your opinions, which are perfectly legitimate, may represent a very small minority of all guests.

The other mainstay since 1955 has been that if you want to ride your favorite attraction over and over you have to get off the ride and get back in line with everyone else. You can still do that. It sounds like you should be advocating the elimination of FPs completely.

 

[briand1023]

Now that was a great response....those of us on here expect a lot but if you talk to newbie Disney visitors or those who are not so into Disney, this works to their advantage.

 

[sonofanarchy]

That ignores one of THE most primary of all desires of visiting amusement and theme parks...
to ride your favorites, over and over.

It is as basic as popcorn and balloons.

That desire is especially high at Disney parks and has been a mainstay practice
of guests since 1955.

Yup. And it's why summer 2014 will be our last trip until it is changed (if that happens). And that absolutely breaks my heart. WDW is my favorite place on Earth, but not getting to tour the parks to my enjoyment would be devastating.