Has Touring plans lost its collective mind?

[rn448698]

It was mentioned that historical crowds influence the ratings. Are last year's Easter crowds at the end of April resulting in higher predicted levels for the end of April this year? The predictions seem abnormally high for this time of the year.

 

[PixieDustFanatic]

Good point. I just checked the wait times for Saturday, October 2, 2010 (the first Saturday of F&W in 2010). Also a crowd level of 1.1. That was also, I believe, the weekend of the Food & Wine Half-Marathon.

Len

Wow, I guess you agreed with me. LOL

Epcot changed from a 1.1 to an 8.7 overnight for that date.

 

[chimommy]

It was mentioned that historical crowds influence the ratings. Are last year's Easter crowds at the end of April resulting in higher predicted levels for the end of April this year? The predictions seem abnormally high for this time of the year.

I was surprised by the overall crowd level days for sept 2012. In previous years the crowd level has been 1 or 2 on the days we are going and now its 3, 4, &5. It even has hs as a 7.2 (in sept??) one of the days. I hope its just a mistake or maybe they are just expecting more people this sept?

 

[lentesta]

Okay, I think I have everyone's dates and details. Give me a couple of days to research this and I'll get back to everyone with details. Thanks!

Len

 

[ms.ojo]

In my opinion, wait times tend to be one of the easiest ways for people to get their heads around crowd size. The difference between "You're going to wait for an hour at Space Mountain" and "You're going to wait 30 minutes at Space Mountain" is something a lot of people can grasp, even if they've never seen Space Mountain.

Len

Hi Len, The models you've developed to forecast are amazing. So many variables taken into consideration. And certainly, changes will occur when Disney expands hours, or adds Fantasmic showings.

But that's not what's happening here. Sometimes it seems like the park recommendations and #s are published before any human logic is applied. At some point (maybe 2-3mths in advance) it seems like a person/team really looks at the data more closely and notices things like "MK Best park...when it's having a morning EMH". This person realizes that makes no sense and poof, a change is sent out making it a park to avoid.

Thing is, ppl who REALLY need the recommendations to plan their ADRs 6mths out use those initial published results. And then at the 2-3mth mark, when all these changes come along, it's totally frustrating. They think they have it all set, coveted ADR at Cinderella's Table and wammo, it's now on a park to avoid day.

When I looked at the UG predictions for my travel dates in June based on published EMH schedule I thought "no way" on many of them. Funny thing, in the last week those predictions have changed....and they're right in line w/ what I would have expected. But it wasn't just changing something from best to good...these were HUGE changes in both directions: from Worst to Best and Best to Worst changes. I think it's that sort of thing that has ppl wondering has Touring Plans lost its collective mind.

Of course UG says the touring plan is more imp't than the day you visit a park. but it's still frustrating.

 

[WDWfanfromOR]

Also a subscriber, and have a big change during our September trip.

On Sunday, Sept 2, Animal Kingdom went from crowd level of 3.5 and a Best Park to crowd level 6.9 and the park to avoid.

I understand that things change, but this is pretty dramatic. And since we are there on free dining and didn't plan for hoppers this trip, we are going to be stuck in the park we choose. And our favorite table service in the entire resort is Boma, so it is a particularly troubling choice for me... stick with a "worst park" on our arrival day when we cannot be there for rope drop, or switch our ADRs and perhaps not get Boma at a desirable time again.

 

[jebobak]

Headline…

”Passionate planners pontificate purposefully pertaining purported problems predicting park population!”

I’ve got to hand it to Len and TouringPlans.com! I can’t imagine a harder job than trying to satisfy the legions of impassioned Disney fans preparing for their perfect day…much less doing it by trying to predict the future!!

I think it is wonderful that Len is willing to come on here and doesn’t try to off-handedly dismiss the issues with a simple “We use a sophisticated statistical formula…” and leave it at that. He’s explained the reasoning and methodology, and is very receptive to the problems we are having and seems eager to do the best they can to make the predictions as accurate as possible.

That being said, they are exactly that…predictions. I’m not saying there is or isn’t a glitch in the system when a 1.1 goes to a 8.1 and back down again, but it appears everything they post is very carefully thought out and meticulously researched. It’s a guide for us to go by when planning our trip. Obviously, the popularity of Disney is making it harder to make plans and decisions many months in advance, forcing us to find our own comfortable balance between the availability of accurate facts and the necessity of booking before all the good deals are gone!

As far as one crowd calendar being better than another, I willing to bet when averaged out, they all have the same batting average. One methodology might be better for one situation, yet fail miserably in another. And, as you approach the actual day, more information will be available, and the prediction will (should) be more accurate. So, all we can do is work with what we’ve got and take a chance. I think we’re pretty lucky to have something like TouringPlans.com!

 

[Missyrose]

Also a subscriber, and have a big change during our September trip.

On Sunday, Sept 2, Animal Kingdom went from crowd level of 3.5 and a Best Park to crowd level 6.9 and the park to avoid.

I understand that things change, but this is pretty dramatic. And since we are there on free dining and didn't plan for hoppers this trip, we are going to be stuck in the park we choose. And our favorite table service in the entire resort is Boma, so it is a particularly troubling choice for me... stick with a "worst park" on our arrival day when we cannot be there for rope drop, or switch our ADRs and perhaps not get Boma at a desirable time again.

You do realize Boma is at Animal Kingdom Lodge, not Animal Kingdom (the park). So while it would be more convenient to eat at Boma on your AK day, it's not completely unreasonable to go to a different park and end up at Boma for your meal. Just a thought.

 

[DizneyLizzy]

I’ve got to hand it to Len and TouringPlans.com! I can’t imagine a harder job than trying to satisfy the legions of impassioned Disney fans preparing for their perfect day…much less doing it by trying to predict the future!!

Couldn't agree more. My husband is a meteorologist and deals with this sort of thing all the time. Meteorologists make predictions based on very sophisticated computer models, and things change all the time. If the TV meteorologist told you on Monday that the weather on Saturday was going to be beautiful and midweek something changed in the atmosphere that led to changes in the computer models, and hence the extended forecast, wouldn't you want to know?? It's the same thing with Touring Plans since they use data and computer models...things change and they make adjustments based on those changes. Sometimes those changes happen at the last minute, and I'd rather be informed than be surprised...just like with the weather!

Thanks Len and TP for providing a great service! I find it all very fascinating.

 

[Day-Day]

Couldn't agree more. My husband is a meteorologist and deals with this sort of thing all the time. Meteorologists make predictions based on very sophisticated computer models, and things change all the time. If the TV meteorologist told you on Monday that the weather on Saturday was going to be beautiful and midweek something changed in the atmosphere that led to changes in the computer models, and hence the extended forecast, wouldn't you want to know?? It's the same thing with Touring Plans since they use data and computer models...things change and they make adjustments based on those changes. Sometimes those changes happen at the last minute, and I'd rather be informed than be surprised...just like with the weather!

Thanks Len and TP for providing a great service! I find it all very fascinating.

Now if we could get wooly bears and rain crows to predict WDW crowds instead of just the weather...

 

[Yookeroo]

”Passionate planners pontificate purposefully pertaining purported problems predicting park population!”

Well done.

I think it is wonderful that Len is willing to come on here and doesn’t try to off-handedly dismiss the issues with a simple “We use a sophisticated statistical formula…” and leave it at that. He’s explained the reasoning and methodology, and is very receptive to the problems we are having and seems eager to do the best they can to make the predictions as accurate as possible.

I hear he's a good guy to have a meal with too.

 

[lentesta]

Hi folks,

I’ve spoken with our statisticians about these issues, and I think we have a root cause for all of them.

Many subscribers received multiple, conflicting crowd calendar email updates almost daily from Sunday, March 18 through Wednesday, March 28. The cause of this issue was an error in the data we use to forecast crowds for the month of March, 2013, and subsequent attempts to fix that error. (If you want to know how a forecast for March, 2013 could affect dates in 2012, I suggest reading our statistician Fred’s blog post on how the Crowd Calendar 2.0 works.)

We attempted to fix this error on March 19, twice on March 21, once on March 24, and once on March 25 before finally fixing it on March 28. Each time we attempted to post a corrected crowd calendar, our Crowd Tracker email system sent out email alerts to anyone whose dates were affected by the errors in those calendars. I believe this covers every issue reported in this thread, with the exception of Saturday, September 29, 2012 (which I’ll address shortly).

I sincerely apologize for these errors and for the incorrect emails. We’ve reviewed the process by which we update the calendar and send emails, and we’ll be working over the next few weeks to prevent them from happening again. Ideas that we’ve discussed implementing include everything from the human review of dates which change more than 1.0, to the system not posting an update unless a human has entered explanations for why the calendar has changed. As we develop those ideas more fully, I’ll be happy to post updates if anyone’s interested. If anyone has any suggestions, too, we’d love to hear them.

Regarding Epcot on September 29, 2012, our crowd calendar has jumped from a forecasted crowd level of 1.1 to a revised level of 8.7. I’m told this is primarily due to Epcot’s expanded hours (it closes at 10 pm), which generally only happens when Disney is expecting Christmas-size crowds.

In discussing this with our statisticians, we think that Disney’s motivation for keeping Epcot open until 10 pm may be to increase its revenue from Food & Wine sales, not necessarily because of expected crowds at attractions. The crowd level for the same Saturday in 2011 and 2010 was 1.1 on our scale; the number of people in Epcot on 9/29/2012 would need to be roughly double that of previous years to justify that crowd level. We don’t think that’s going to happen.

Of course, that weekend is a couple of days before Epcot’s 30th anniversary, on Monday October 1. Disney hasn’t yet announced plans for a celebration. However, the Magic Kingdom’s 40th anniversary (on October 1, 2011) is a reasonable place to look for what to expect.

On that day, the Magic Kingdom’s crowd level was 7.1. However, attraction wait times were higher the following weekend of Columbus Day (a crowd level of 7.7), so the celebration’s effects on attraction wait times seems to have been low. Also, Epcot gets roughly 2/3rds the visitors of the Magic Kingdom, it shouldn’t draw the same number of celebrants in absolute terms.

Unless Disney announces spectacular plans for Epcot that weekend, I expect we’ll drop that expected crowd level to something more in line with previous years’ numbers. I also expect World Showcase’s food kiosks to have long lines, with a fair share of inebriated college students, that will affect your perception of how crowded World Showcase is. But right now, based on what we know from the past, lines at the attractions should be relatively low.

Let me know if any of this isn’t clear, please. Thanks again for using the site.

Len

 

[Mister Skellington]

Thanks for the update Len and thanks for helping my Disney trips easier!

 

[Hopefully]

Thanks for your explanation and dedication Len

 

[alicia080979]

Thank you so much Len...that makes sense now that a lot of us were scratching our heads wondering what in the world was going on. Thanks for everything you all do, you make our trips so much better!

 

[TouringPlansFred]

DizneyLizzy, it is refreshing to hear your husband experiences the same thing. I have always thought the Crowd Calendar resembles a weather forecast. We can all access historical weather patterns for a particular week of the year and pick the week with the lowest amount of rain but that doesn't mean we are guaranteed not to experience rain. We do our best to predict the crowd levels based on what we know, our challenge is to better communicate to our readers what the calendar is and HOW to use it. And so it goes...

 

[pigletto]

I am so very very impressed that you not only looked into the issues but came back with a very detailed explanation Len. Thank you.

It renews my confidence in the service completely to see that someone is willing to explain it to us with more than a "These things happen". I am back to being a satisfied customer.

 

[Cyrano]

As a user of TP and a passionate DISer this is a great thread which shows both groups as part of the great Disney Community

 

[PixieDustFanatic]

Len, I just want you to know how much I really appreciate the time you put in to address concerns! That kind of customer care is lost on many organizations today. It's one of the many reasons I love using Touringplans!

Thanks!!!

PS--are there any plans in the works to add Universal and Islands of Adventure to your online repertoire?

 

[laura428]

So very well done, Len. Thanks much for a thorough and honest explanation!