Has Touring plans lost its collective mind?

[Day-Day]

The general plans that they've always had do not show times. The customized plans show exactly what time they expect you to arrive at the ride, how long you will wait, how long to ride, and how long to walk to the next ride. If you make a customized plan, you should see this. You do have to click "OPTIMIZE" after choosing your date, park, and attractions.

Now I see it. Thanks

 

[lentesta]

If you are willing to accept touring in multiples of 10, you can just put that country in more than once. For example, put that country in twice for 20min, 3x for 30min. Maybe that would help?

Let me know what a reasonable number is to put in for visiting a WS country. I think we said 10 minutes as a default average. If 15 or 20 seems better, we can look at what impact that would have on touring. Happy to work with y'all on this.

Len

 

[Bellamouse]

Thanks Bellamouse.

We've considered using a "how crowded the park will feel" number. In fact, for the past year we've asked Lines users to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, how crowded the parks felt, every single day.

The problem is that how a park "feels" is entirely subjective, and people will answer differently based on everything from how many times they've been to the park, to what kind of mood their spouse woke up in.

Thank you for the very helpful reply. It totally makes me laugh because I found the thread from the person last year who thought the park was really crowded too. I went back and re-read it and as you claimed, several people disagreed and thought the park seemed empty!

I didn't think that opinions could vary so much like that about something that seemed fairly obvious! But that's the reality I guess!

So again I appreciate your explanations and it does help actually. I will forget trying to "figure out" which days will be least crowded. I will use the best common sense I have in making my plans and then just decide to be flexible if I have to.

I go back to the fact that I know I am spoiled by having been to Disney many times in October over the past 11 years and mainly in the early 2000's we had the parks to ourselves (literally - especially in 2001 after 9/11 - there was NO ONE there!!!) and because of that I have come to want and expect that every time. I think I just have to come to grips with the fact that that's just an unrealistic expectation anymore. (is there a crying smilie??)

I have decided that the last week of Oct into the first week of Nov looks like it might be the emptiest time now, and I will try that next year if we go, but who knows really....

 

[davedmaine]

With the increasing room discounts and free dining, pretty safe to say that the days of 'empty' parks are gone..

 

[Bellamouse]

There doesn't seem to be a way to get a consensus on what that would be. I'm open to suggestions though!

I had another thought. Doesn't Disney give out the numbers on how many people went through the turnstiles? Or maybe, look at how crowded the parking lots are? I don't know. There has to be some way to tell if the parks have few people in them, a medium number of people in them or a lot of people in them.

I am fine with a 1 to 4 scale personally, in terms of how crowded it feels. I think the 1 to 10 scale (for my purposes) is unnecessary.

So maybe add a 1 to 4 scale "crowdedness" number? I don't know. Just some more thoughts.

 

[dimndgal1]

Len,
Thank you for taking the time to come on and answer questions!

My dates are June25-29 with June 26 having an amazing number of changes back and forth for both independent parks and resort wide. I have received three emails since the 20th regarding that one de.

Not sure what's going on that day but it's been like a tennis matchgoing back and forth

 

[Yookeroo]

The problem with narrow scales is that they don't covey enough information to a lot of people who *really* want specific estimates. (In fact, we added decimal points to our scale because so many people asked us to differentiate between the days numbered '5' in our old version.)

Interesting. I find that I'm annoyed by the decimals. That makes it a hundred point scale, and I think given the nature of forecasting something like this, it is way too precise. Despite all the data you guys collect, there's no way your predictions can be that accurate.

 

[PixieDustFanatic]

Interesting question. I went back and looked at the wait times we recorded for Saturday, October 1, 2011 to see how busy Epcot was.

The highest posted wait time we recorded for Soarin' was 80 minutes between 3 and 4 pm. The peak posted wait we have for Sum of All Thrills was around 15 minutes. The highest posted wait for SSE was 20 minutes, and the longest actual wait we have recorded is 4 minutes.

The highest posted wait for Test Track was 100 at 4:30 pm. Test Track, however, went offline from around 1:45 pm to around 2:30 pm. Based on that, the posted standby wait may have been inflated by FASTPASS guests who were denied rides during the outage, who later returned to do so. The posted wait dropped to 30 minutes by 5:45 pm.

We don't have any actual wait times for Soarin' or Test Track on October 1, 2011. A good rule of thumb, though, is that actual waits are 80% of posted. (There's a lot of variation in this, but it's a decent starting point.) That would make the peak waits in line for Soarin' about 64 minutes, Sum of All Thrills around 12 minutes, and Test Track 80.

Translating those to our 1-to-10 scale, Soarin', SSE and Sum of All Thrills would be a 1; Test Track would be a 10, but again, the outage skews that number a lot.

So, broadly speaking, the wait times for Epcot last Saturday, October 1, were either a 1 on our scale, or pretty close. I don't see anything obvious in the wait times to indicate that we were off substantially.

That being said, the lines for the food in World Showcase were long, and the drunk college kids made that experience unpleasant. But the crowd calendar doesn't measure those things (yet). If you're concerned about wait times at attractions, though, October 1 looked pretty good.

Let me know if this isn't clear. Thanks for the question.

Len

I get what you're saying and mathematically it makes sense to me. But, is it possible that using last year's date could possibly skew the results given it was also the MK anniversary date?

It just seems counter-intuitive to me that Epcot would be considered neutral on the first Saturday of food and wine. It's honestly not a big deal since we'll likely hit the 'Best Park' that day. It just struck me as odd.

 

[vinotinto]

Hi Len,

You may not have access to this information, but a 'how crowded does the park feel' indicator would be simply # of folks that come into each park. That would account for that 'crowded' feeling on Saturdays at F&W and even during FD times (when people are eating and not riding, but still around). You could split it in 10ths, just like with the wait times.

It would be great to see something like that (I'm a subscriber!). Also a 'how crowded is the occupancy of the Disney resorts.' I understand that the parks are often uncrowded in weekdays in hurricane season, but because of FD and other promotions, resorts are at high occupancy. I don't know if occupancy could be included, but that would be great!

 

[lentesta]

I get what you're saying and mathematically it makes sense to me. But, is it possible that using last year's date could possibly skew the results given it was also the MK anniversary date?

It just seems counter-intuitive to me that Epcot would be considered neutral on the first Saturday of food and wine. It's honestly not a big deal since we'll likely hit the 'Best Park' that day. It just struck me as odd.

Good point. I just checked the wait times for Saturday, October 2, 2010 (the first Saturday of F&W in 2010). Also a crowd level of 1.1. That was also, I believe, the weekend of the Food & Wine Half-Marathon.

Len

 

[lentesta]

Interesting. I find that I'm annoyed by the decimals. That makes it a hundred point scale, and I think given the nature of forecasting something like this, it is way too precise. Despite all the data you guys collect, there's no way your predictions can be that accurate.

Our current accuracy is slightly better than +/- 1.0 confidence interval at 90% confidence level. I think we're somewhere between 70% and 80% at +/- 0.5, and that's our current goal.

So we're not yet at the point where we can definitely predict the difference between, say, a 5.5 and a 5.6, but we're sufficiently accurate to tell the difference between a 5 and a 6, and perhaps (depending on your tolerance) between a 5.5 and a 6.0.

As I said earlier, the primary reason we have the decimal points is that customers asked for it. The amount of email we get about the crowd calendar is staggering. I hired staff to answer email in 2010; that year I personally answered between 12,000 and 16,000 emails, most of which asked for clarification on crowd calendar dates.

Our user volumes have more than quadrupled since then. One option would have been to ignore the customer requests, keep the decimals off the calendar, and just hire more staff to answer emails. Or we could add the decimals, explain the limits of our accuracy, and set our accuracy goals to be +/- 0.1. I can see how some people would have gone with the former. We went with the latter. I don't think there's a single solution that would have made everyone happy.

Len

 

[lentesta]

Hi Len,

You may not have access to this information, but a 'how crowded does the park feel' indicator would be simply # of folks that come into each park. That would account for that 'crowded' feeling on Saturdays at F&W and even during FD times (when people are eating and not riding, but still around). You could split it in 10ths, just like with the wait times.

It would be great to see something like that (I'm a subscriber!). Also a 'how crowded is the occupancy of the Disney resorts.' I understand that the parks are often uncrowded in weekdays in hurricane season, but because of FD and other promotions, resorts are at high occupancy. I don't know if occupancy could be included, but that would be great!

Thanks vinotinto!

We've considered giving an estimate of how many people come into the park. We know the estimated wait in line at each attraction, and we know how long it takes to experience each attraction, so it's possible to do some math to estimate how many people are standing in line throughout a park at any given time. (We could probably add Food & Wine booths to Lines' estimates; they're similar enough to attractions to fit into the modeling.)

The primary concern we have with giving crowd numbers is they don't seem to provide as much context for new visitors as do wait times. For example, if you're a first-time visitor to the Magic Kingdom and I tell you that 35,000 people are going to be there with you, it may be difficult for you to know whether 35,000 is a lot, a little or about average.

In my opinion, wait times tend to be one of the easiest ways for people to get their heads around crowd size. The difference between "You're going to wait for an hour at Space Mountain" and "You're going to wait 30 minutes at Space Mountain" is something a lot of people can grasp, even if they've never seen Space Mountain.

The second concern with crowd numbers is, of course, that Disney doesn't publish them. That makes them very hard to check for accuracy. I mean, I could say "Disney's attendance numbers were X," but at the end of the day, I'm just some guy on the Internet, right? Unless Disney themselves were to verify the numbers, it's difficult to put stock in those kinds of claims.

Wait times are easier to check. For one thing, you can see them in the park, which is pretty much the most direct verification method possible. And there are enough wait-time apps on the market that it's sufficiently easy to check whether any two apps agree. It might take twenty bucks to purchase the apps, a pencil, some paper and Excel, but it's doable.

Hotel occupancy is an interesting idea. For a while we considered counting cars in the resort parking lots every morning. Magical Express made that a bit more difficult (because fewer people drive), and we've not checked whether the percent of guests using ME stays relatively constant throughout the year. But that might be worth checking. Let me think about that. Great idea.

Len

 

[Missyrose]

Len,
Thanks for all the work your and your team do. I've subscribed for the past several years and have been very happy with all the info you've provided. I've gotten a bunch of tracker emails in the past couple of weeks (my trip is October 6-12). I attributed the emails to the October hours being officially released, but there was one really weird change that I couldn't figure out:

October 12, 2012: Magic Kingdom Crowd Level updated from 8.0 to 1.1.

That seemed a really drastic change and I've gone several Octobers in a row and Fridays are almost always crowded at MK. I'm just curious if you think the 1.1 will stick, or was it just some sort of re-calibration outlier?

 

[sunshine girl]

This has been so interesting! I've always had very excellent luck with Touring Plans, no issues at all. I think the fact that TP updates the predicted crowd levels often is a GOOD thing... a sign that TP has their ears to the ground @Disney (so to say) and are trying to provide the latest info. Especially given the schedule changes, additions, promotions, events etc. at WDW this year... I wouldn't mind extra emails toward the end goal of better accuracy and updated info. These days I'm more of a last minute planner anyway, so I don't worry about early specifics so much! Great discussion, have enjoyed it!!

 

[michelle06]

Len,
Thanks so much for all the info on this thread!! Since you are on here, I was hoping you could contact me regarding the optimized plans. I sent a couple emails and on FB you mentioned you would send a private message but I haven't received anything. Could really use some help with the plans. Thanks.

 

[dimndgal1]

This has been so interesting! I've always had very excellent luck with Touring Plans, no issues at all. I think the fact that TP updates the predicted crowd levels often is a GOOD thing... a sign that TP has their ears to the ground @Disney (so to say) and are trying to provide the latest info. Especially given the schedule changes, additions, promotions, events etc. at WDW this year... I wouldn't mind extra emails toward the end goal of better accuracy and updated info. These days I'm more of a last minute planner anyway, so I don't worry about early specifics so much! Great discussion, have enjoyed it!!

If the updates I was getting were helpful, I would agree wholeheartedly with you.

But, for instance, I received this email one day:
June XX, 2012: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 7 to 8.
June XX, 2012: Epcot is now a best park.

The next day I received:
June XX, 2012: Resort-wide Crowd Level updated from 7 to 8.
June XX, 2012: Epcot is now a best park.

I have received two other emails that did the same basic thing. I understand that some shift might have caused the level to 'trigger' a response... and then that shift changed back, causing the recommendations to shift back, but it does get a bit confusing to see it vacillate.

I, personally, based my ADRs loosely on recs from TP and EZ WDW but I know people who really rely on those recommendations and I can just imagine how the changes back and forth affect their planning.

 

[kaligal]

Thanks Bellamouse.

We've considered using a "how crowded the park will feel" number. In fact, for the past year we've asked Lines users to rate, on a scale of 1 to 10, how crowded the parks felt, every single

I got that question and I spent a lot of time thinking about the answer before I put it in.

All the time I've used the UG (since the one with the flamingos on it), I never considered what I thought it felt like. When these numbers started, I still didn't. If it said 6, I just figured, "this is 6."

Honestly, though, I never did understand the numbers. I'm very good at Math and almost majored in it, but found stats a wee bit boring. Any time any stats thing is explained, I tend to skim it. I'd rather trust the experts than have to actually learn it. It's not a personal thing. If you guys were explaining Organic Chem as it relates to Disney, I'd skim that, too. Just a skimmer.

The point is that it's hard to say how the parks feel, number wise, without understanding the criteria.

But ever since that question popped up in my phone, I go to parks and wonder, "What does this feel like?". It is hard! (yesterday, I went with MK at 8.5)

Love the UG, the site and the podcast (especially the zombie one)!

Keep up the good work!

 

[TouringPlansFred]

Where is Len Testa when we need him?

Where is Len, btw? He used to post on here quite a little bit.

He is still alive and well but I can respond to some of the concerns posted here.

1) Tracker Updates. This is always a concern for our users but often unavoidable. Park hours, special events, schedule changes and changes to the Fastpass system are having large affects on the wait times that we predict. When those factors change, we have to react. I don't see any way to avoid it. We want the most up-to-date information possible.

2) Food & Wine is one of those events of the year where our calendar suffers from the fact that it uses wait times as a base line. Yes, the weekends of Food & Wine are crazy busy but the wait times, historically are really low, that is why we get levels in the '1's and '2's. This is part of the reason that we suggest avoiding Epcot on weekends of Food & Wine despite the low ratings.

3) Levels not matching experience. Are our estimates perfect? Absolutely not, we're off about 5% of the time and sometimes way off. Unfortunately, most people only have one or two days with which to judge us. If they pick a day when we're off then we look bad, but in the long term, this is not the case. Most people find our estimates to be sufficiently accurate.

 

[Yookeroo]

As I said earlier, the primary reason we have the decimal points is that customers asked for it.

Yeah, I get that.

But when I get an email telling me that Epcot went from a 2.2 to a 2.1:

Oh well, happier customers and decreasing the amount of customer support needed sure makes it justifiable.

Or we could add the decimals, explain the limits of our accuracy, and set our accuracy goals to be +/- 0.1.

Even if you were to hit these accuracy goals, a 0.1 difference in wait times can't be all that big. Can't be more than a half hour over the course of a day, can it?

 

[MikeRx]

I want to start by saying thank you and apologize to the TouringPlans team. I’ve succumbed to the micro management of the day to day tracker too!

While I utilize data and estimates from other sites (easyWDW, Undercover tourist, Your first visit, etc…) Their work on the crowd estimator/tracker alone is worth the price of the subscription. It is still the best system available to give you a fighting chance! If you read carefully picking the best crowd day is only 10% of the “have a good Disney day” equation. The other 90% is following a good plan for the day. Sometimes we “planners” lose track of this and fret over 5.4 vs. 3.5 and forget that if we have a plan (commando or laid-back) and stick to it, we will have a fantastic time no matter how crowded the parks are or the estimate. Am I going to change all of my ADRs and plans because of the tracker?...of course not…It gave me the best estimate on which day to go to each park in time for me to make excellent ADR choices!

If folks stop and read the website material and book chapters they will see how valuable the entire site/book really is and relax on the actual number for the day.

Mike DW DS (4) DMIL

First visit 1976, last visit WDW 2/2010 BC CL and DL GC 12/2010, future WDW 4/2012 POLY TPV, 7/2012 (off site meeting), 4/2013 POLY with Disney Dream cruise!