Has SSR made it harder to book other resorts?

[CarolMN]

I agree with Beca that there people who buy VWL, BWV, and BCV who ONLY really want to stay at that resort. My husband is one of them. Our first trip was "home" to BWV. We loved it as much as we thought we would. Our yearly trips for the next TWO years are also already planned to be at BWV. I asked him if he wanted to try anywhere else after that and he said "well maybe the BCV, but at BWV we can get the Boardwalk view." This is from a former die-hard BC fan! Truthfully, we plan to always book our home resort at 11 mos and that is why we bought one we love. I have booked two stays so far (early Dec and mid-to-late Oct) BOTH times I was advised by MS to call day by day because these are popular times, and I was only competeing with other BWV owners!
We plan to add on 85 points next year at BWV. No incentive DVC could offer for SSR is worth that 11 mos window. I know others love SSR and I am happy for them. I think I've posted before that we have good friends who own at BCV and have only stayed there once. They always stay at OKW. So that's at least one owner not booking BCV at 11 mos!!

My DH & I feel exactly the same way - except we prefer the standard views to the Boardwalk views and we don't have friends who own at BCV.

Anyway, we have no desire to stay anywhere but the BWV and I always book day by day at the 11 month window for our early December vacations. Maybe we'll change in the future, but for now, we only want to be at the BWV and there isn't any incentive (well, maybe FREE, LOL) that would tempt us to give up our home resort booking advantage at the BWV, either.

Best wishes -

 

[JimMIA]

Have enough points to book your home resort day by day at 11 months out then at 7 months do the same day by day for where you desire. Go on the wait list individually for each day and keep the original reservation until you've gotten everything. Use year will be much more important in that scenario and as I alluded to already, you'll need enough points to keep both until the last day of the second reservation.

I have to laugh at this! Not that it's not true -- I'm sure Dean has thought this through perfectly, and I have no doubt he is right on. BUT...if this is not the very definition of Crisi's Cindy Breakfast ADR nightmare scenario, I don't know what is!

On a more serious note, it seems logical to me that the increased size of the DVC member base almost has to make 7-month ressies more difficult at the smaller resorts, and to a lesser degree at BWV. Ressies are already difficult at those resorts during certain periods, and I'm sure they will get more difficult as time goes by.

Which reminds me...gotta go book a BCV vacation before Beca corners all of the BCV points. A little birdie told me she's working on a nine-way contract swap to acquire ALL of BCV.

 

[nestlejean]

Some of my thoughts:
I believe that the somewhat smaller resorts (BC,BW,VWL) will always be harder to book at certain times because the DVC membership has and will continue to increase. There are certain times people like these resorts and they will have to be booked at those times at 11 mos. there may be times when you can luck out and get them at other months out but don't plan on it.
When a new DVC opens (it will be when SSR is sold out most likely), there will be alot of activity to check it out and stay at it if it's some of the predicted resorts(monorail). It will take some of the traffic flow from VWL,BC,BWV for awhile but there are seasonal dates that just will never slow down.
If everyone calls day by day for all of their ressies, we'll never get through to member services.
The problem with booking 2 ressies is the points. You have to have current use year extra points available to do this otherwise you borrow and then they have to stay in the new use year you borrowed to.
I, unfortunately, have a hard time now that my children are older,planning 11 mos. out. This makes my home resort not an asset for booking ressies. It will be nicer when there is just the 2 of us to be concerned about and I can use the 11 mos. window to our advantage (since we own at BWV).
I wonder how all of these extra year points SSR people got work into the point structure. how are there enough rooms? Is it going to be busier for awhile because of the extra points or are they already accounted for? It's all confusing as far as the point/room stuff goes!

 

[Dean]

I have to laugh at this! Not that it's not true -- I'm sure Dean has thought this through perfectly, and I have no doubt he is right on. BUT...if this is not the very definition of Crisi's [/I

LOL, maybe maybe not. My prediction is that many, likely you included, will come back in a few years and be discussing only being able to book at your home resort and even then at 11 months out for much of the year. And the editorials will include things like "I never thought this would happen but". We shall see.

 

[Beca]

LOL, maybe maybe not. My prediction is that many, likely you included, will come back in a few years and be discussing only being able to book at your home resort and even then at 11 months out for much of the year. And the editorials will include things like "I never thought this would happen but". We shall see.

Okay, JimMIA....thanks for my biggest laugh of the day!!! Oh, how I WISH I could "corner the market" on BCV!!!! Actually, I don't....I don't have any problems sharing....as long as I can LIVE there....then, all my fellow BCV lovers and I can have a party (and, whoever pulls that quote out and makes something dirty out of it.... ).

Dean....thanks for the explanation. I have not been member long enough to have "watched" a resort sell out. Disney is nothing if not a master of marketing....sometimes I just forget this, and actually believe the hype. I'm sure you are right.

Okay, one more question for you...why do you think EP would be preferable to SSR? I was not around on the boards when EP was being planned, but from what people say, it seemed like a pretty remote location...didn't even have access to DTD.

And, I think you're right (as usual). I give it two years before we see a lot of people "hitting the boards" complaining that they can only get into SSR. I know people like tjkraz get in when they want without too many problems....but, it will only take a few years for people to not get in when they want, and then the day by day calls will start for LOTS of people. We need to get ready for longer waits on the phone for MS. Hmmm....maybe that will prompt DVC to get automated booking online.

However....I worry about other fallout from such discontent...I think DVC may "shorten" the home advantage, and allow booking at non-home resorts as far out as 9 months in advance. Appx. half of DVC's members will be SSR owners, and if they are unhappy....well, DVC will lose it's "Best timeshare to own" status. There is a very large impetus to keep SSR owners happy....and, from DVC's perspective....it is no "skin off their backs" to allow non-owners to book outside their home 9 months in advance. OTOH....I would be DEVASTATED by this move...and yet, if complaints get too loud, I can totally see it happening.



Beca

 

[Dean]

Okay, one more question for you...why do you think EP would be preferable to SSR? I was not around on the boards when EP was being planned, but from what people say, it seemed like a pretty remote location...didn't even have access to DTD.

I'm not really sure. But I think it's partly that the excitement after it was announced seemed more to me than did SSR, that it would be situated at the 2 gold courses which I think many like better than the one at SSR, that it's closer to MK and that I like the released info on it theme and buildings better than SSR. And I made that interpretation before SSR was expanded which, IMO, knocks SSR down a notch. But in many ways there would be similarities to OKW & SSR in terms of lower points (more like SSR), size, number of points available and the like. But even if the same percentage wanted to buy as were chomping at the bit for SSR, a significant percentage of those have already bought SSR. I guess I'd be curious if anyone on the board held of SSR waiting for EP, maybe someone would want to do a poll.

And, I think you're right (as usual). I give it two years before we see a lot of people "hitting the boards" complaining that they can only get into SSR. I know people like tjkraz get in when they want without too many problems....but, it will only take a few years for people to not get in when they want, and then the day by day calls will start for LOTS of people. We need to get ready for longer waits on the phone for MS. Hmmm....maybe that will prompt DVC to get automated booking online.

As I've said a number of times, those that know the system and are willing to put a little effort and take a little risk, will continue to be successful more times than not. Part of it comes into how to play the game and the example that gave you all a laugh will be the ultimate approach. Frankly, I see it as the predominant method in a few years, with a few minor variations that I didn't expand on. Plus, if my thoughts are on target, we'll see a lot more people reserve higher demand times to rent them out rather than advertising points and then make the reservation after they have a rentee.

However....I worry about other fallout from such discontent...I think DVC may "shorten" the home advantage, and allow booking at non-home resorts as far out as 9 months in advance.

Even if they shortened it to the shortest they could at 10/11 months, I don't think it'd make much long term difference. I see most booking at 11 months for their entire stay (not day by day) in a few years. Sure there would be a small percentage of people that could plan at or prior to 7 months but not at 10 months or more, but I think it'll be fairly small. Those that can will simply adjust their approach, some that can't may sell that wouldn't think of it now. A number of the rest will gripe and moan like some do now that don't pan ahead enough or can't get into a resort they don't own at, it's just be a larger number and percentage.

 

[chloe]

As an owner of one the small resorts here’s another variation of Dean’s two-ressie approach that DH and I have been considering:

Buy enough point so we can make multiple reservations at the desired resort during peak time. Increased demand has not only made it harder to book at some resorts it will make down right impossible to modify a reservation due to shifts in schedules.

With enough points we could book two separate weeks and then once our schedules are finalized keep the reservation for the dates we’ll need. Likewise if we *think* we’re going to have guests, but are not sure --- guests are notoriously slippery --- we could reserve a back-up room.

And …. I just thought of this … since we have now made a potentially extra reservation at a desirable resort at a desirable time we could always rent the un-needed reservation at a premium.

How controversial is that? Can’t honestly seeing us putting reservation up for rent, but I throw this out for debate.

 

[Dean]

As an owner of one the small resorts here’s another variation of Dean’s two-ressie approach that DH and I have been considering:

Buy enough point so we can make multiple reservations at the desired resort during peak time. Increased demand has not only made it harder to book at some resorts it will make down right impossible to modify a reservation due to shifts in schedules.

With enough points we could book two separate weeks and then once our schedules are finalized keep the reservation for the dates we’ll need. Likewise if we *think* we’re going to have guests, but are not sure --- guests are notoriously slippery --- we could reserve a back-up room.

And …. I just thought of this … since we have now made a potentially extra reservation at a desirable resort at a desirable time we could always rent the un-needed reservation at a premium.

How controversial is that? Can’t honestly seeing us putting reservation up for rent, but I throw this out for debate.

I think more and more people are going to have to make their best guess and reserve early in the future then cancel or try to change if possible, and some will make multiple reservations. Of course the ultimate purchase approach is to buy multiple home resorts and reserve at the 11 month window as appropriate.

 

[NMW]

My DH & I feel exactly the same way - except we prefer the standard views to the Boardwalk views and we don't have friends who own at BCV.

Anyway, we have no desire to stay anywhere but the BWV and I always book day by day at the 11 month window for our early December vacations. Maybe we'll change in the future, but for now, we only want to be at the BWV and there isn't any incentive (well, maybe FREE, LOL) that would tempt us to give up our home resort booking advantage at the BWV, either.

Best wishes -

We are staying in a standard view villa in October! I convinced DH to try it (both the standard view and going in October). We usually do early Dec and we are going back to it for a Dec 2007 stay in a 2 bdr Boardwalk view . I thought it would be nice to try a different time of the year, even though I know I'll miss all the Christmas decorations in the BW lobby.

 

[CarolMN]

We are staying in a standard view villa in October! I convinced DH to try it (both the standard view and going in October). We usually do early Dec and we are going back to it for a Dec 2007 stay in a 2 bdr Boardwalk view . I thought it would be nice to try a different time of the year, even though I know I'll miss all the Christmas decorations in the BW lobby.

I'll be interested in your reaction - both to the time of year and the standard view.

Every time I get serious about another time of the year, I end up deciding to go in early December anyway. Just can't seem to give that early December trip up (don't have enough vacation time to do more than one WDW trip each year). But I know DH & I would love Food & Wine time - and a MNSSHP would be icing on the cake! Of course, I'd have to pry DH away from either one of his beloved Gopher football games or one of his equally beloved duck hunting trips and that would be a mighty big challenge. Wish someone could tell me how many dead duck pictures one man needs!

If you want to see fireworks, ask for an upper floor across from the bus stop. That's a great location if you can use stairs - relatively close to the self parking, close to Community Halll and the quite pool/hot tub, close to the MGM walkway (distance about the same to MGM as it is to EPCOT) and it's not all that far from the main pool, either.

Best wishes -

 

[Dean]

I'll be interested in your reaction - both to the time of year and the standard view.

Every time I get serious about another time of the year, I end up deciding to go in early December anyway. Just can't seem to give that early December trip up (don't have enough vacation time to do more than one WDW trip each year). But I know DH & I would love Food & Wine time - and a MNSSHP would be icing on the cake! Of course, I'd have to pry DH away from either one of his beloved Gopher football games or one of his equally beloved duck hunting trips and that would be a mighty big challenge. Wish someone could tell me how many dead duck pictures one man needs!

If you want to see fireworks, ask for an upper floor across from the bus stop. That's a great location if you can use stairs - relatively close to the self parking, close to Community Halll and the quite pool/hot tub, close to the MGM walkway (distance about the same to MGM as it is to EPCOT) and it's not all that far from the main pool, either.

Best wishes -

We liked the MNSSHP better than the Dec activities. We've stayed in standard view units several times both using points and through an II exchange. Frankly, I prefer them.

 

[Daitcher]

LOL, maybe maybe not. My prediction is that many, likely you included, will come back in a few years and be discussing only being able to book at your home resort and even then at 11 months out for much of the year. And the editorials will include things like "I never thought this would happen but". We shall see.

Dean, if this happens you'll see my contract on the resale market. I don't believe that will ever happen by the way. There is room for us all. They say variety is the spice of life. Even the most diehard fans of there home resort sample others from time to time. Every time this happens there "space" is freed up. Add to that exchanges, points being banked, cancellations, etc. It all adds up to plenty of space for everyone. I've never been denied my first choice of resort. I don't and will never go to WDW during peak times so that certainly helps with my bookings. I feel the program works and will continue to do so. Peak times have always been tough to get and they will continue to be. Regular WDW ressies can be tough to get as well. Worse case scenario is you are right and I have to (gasp) stay at SSR or OKW. There are worse things that could happen. You have swayed me on the sell out date for SSR. My projections had it around the end of 2007. You are right though, why have a great incentive like F&F if sales are going so well? Also even if sales were just average why would DVC announce it? It is just good business to say sales are great. I'll up my sell out time frame to 2008-2009. Sales are pretty good or else they wouldn't have altered the original plans. You are usually right so in the back of my mind I'm praying this is the first time you are wrong. I enjoy my 7 month and less bookings at a variety of resorts. Thanks for the thoughts. Only time will tell.

DAVE

 

[Dean]

Dean, if this happens you'll see my contract on the resale market. I don't believe that will ever happen by the way. There is room for us all. They say variety is the spice of life. Even the most diehard fans of there home resort sample others from time to time. Every time this happens there "space" is freed up. Add to that exchanges, points being banked, cancellations, etc. It all adds up to plenty of space for everyone. I've never been denied my first choice of resort. I don't and will never go to WDW during peak times so that certainly helps with my bookings. I feel the program works and will continue to do so. Peak times have always been tough to get and they will continue to be. Regular WDW ressies can be tough to get as well. Worse case scenario is you are right and I have to (gasp) stay at SSR or OKW. There are worse things that could happen. You have swayed me on the sell out date for SSR. My projections had it around the end of 2007. You are right though, why have a great incentive like F&F if sales are going so well? Also even if sales were just average why would DVC announce it? It is just good business to say sales are great. I'll up my sell out time frame to 2008-2009. Sales are pretty good or else they wouldn't have altered the original plans. You are usually right so in the back of my mind I'm praying this is the first time you are wrong. I enjoy my 7 month and less bookings at a variety of resorts. Thanks for the thoughts. Only time will tell.

DAVE

Dave, as I noted, those who plan well will almost always be successful. One slight correction is that exchanges don't really increase availability using points. And if it gets tough enough, exchanges could go away altogether. It will be interesting though. As for being on the auction block, I think mine will mostly be gone well before then.

 

[Daitcher]

Dave, as I noted, those who plan well will almost always be successful. One slight correction is that exchanges don't really increase availability using points. And if it gets tough enough, exchanges could go away altogether. It will be interesting though. As for being on the auction block, I think mine will mostly be gone well before then.

Thanks again Dean. Your post has really got me thinking about the future of DVC.


DAVE

 

[newfamilyman]

Some of these arguments which were made by Pat at TSS were exactly why I chose to purchase resale (VWL at $86/point) than take advantage of the "cheaper" F&F SSR promotion. Even though DVC can't best be viewed as an investment, it does seem like the value of the ownership does seem to be better at VWL, BCV, and BWV due to their higher demand.

 

[dvc-NE]

...I think DVC may "shorten" the home advantage, and allow booking at non-home resorts as far out as 9 months in advance. Appx. half of DVC's members will be SSR owners, and if they are unhappy....well, DVC will lose it's "Best timeshare to own" status. There is a very large impetus to keep SSR owners happy....and, from DVC's perspective....it is no "skin off their backs" to allow non-owners to book outside their home 9 months in advance. OTOH....I would be DEVASTATED by this move...and yet, if complaints get too loud, I can totally see it happening.



Beca

Beca: I tend to agree, that the booking window could easily change. Since all resorts are not created equal, that is one way to try to level the playing field, if you will. I personally believe that SSR could have been built with more of a "draw" than just being across the water from DTD and a full service but expensive spa. I like the fact that the LBV golf course is there, but I doubt a major deciding factor for most. I think if EP becomes reality, they will need some serious reasons to go there, like a swimming facility that makes SAB look like a duck pond.

 

[KLEONARD]

really bad math on my original post. edited to save face.

At the top of page 16 of the SSR public offering statement it states "The total number of Home Resort Vacation Points at the Saratoga Springs Resort is 1,458,228. On page 18, the description of SSR is 2 buildings with 92 total vacation homes. If SSR goes to 16 buildings, that would be a total of 11,665,824 points. I guess SSR may cause more than just a glitch in the home resort reservation world. Maybe DVC will wind up making SSR more desirable to all DVC members. If they can keep SSR at capacity for most of the year, it would take the pressure off the smaller DVC resorts. If SSR does not stay at capacity, there will be more members trying to book a set amount of rooms at the smaller resorts.

11,665,824 points x $85.00 = $ 991,595,040.00 sales
11,665,824 points x $4.00 = $ 46,663,296.00 annual dues
48 years x $46,663,296.00 = $ 2,239,838,208.00 total dues at $4.00 per point.

The big question will be wether DVC uses some of these funds to make SSR an irresistible resort. As and owner, I hope so.

 

[DrTomorrow]

Of course, none of these semi-doomsday scenarios factors in the possibilty of preference changes over the next 5-10-20-30 years. The family benefits of SAB diminsh when the youngest child is 24; after 89 dinners at WS, the novelty may wear off; if EPCOT continues to fade away, there goes half of the location benefit. In addition, there is a pretty well-accepted concept that people want to try new things.

I do wish that there was one place where all of these predictions could be located, for reference in the future. I'd love to see some of the predictions that were made 2 years ago when I joined, and how well the predictors predicted. Hmmmm, maybe I'll do some searching when the usage is slow....

As for the reason behind the F&F incentive - standard business stuff. Not only to they tend to drive fence sitters into making a purchase, but incentives such as this one shift income from the future into the balance sheet - and bonus structure - of the here-and-now; typical short-term business antics. And if SSR is selling well, so much the better - more future revenue to lay claim to today.

IMHO - YMMV - Be well!

 

[Dean]

Of course, none of these semi-doomsday scenarios factors in the possibilty of preference changes over the next 5-10-20-30 years. The family benefits of SAB diminsh when the youngest child is 24; after 89 dinners at WS, the novelty may wear off; if EPCOT continues to fade away, there goes half of the location benefit. In addition, there is a pretty well-accepted concept that people want to try new things.

I do wish that there was one place where all of these predictions could be located, for reference in the future. I'd love to see some of the predictions that were made 2 years ago when I joined, and how well the predictors predicted. Hmmmm, maybe I'll do some searching when the usage is slow....

I guess that's the difference in how people look at things. To me this isn't doomsday at all, only inevitable reality for certain resorts and times of the year. And it should have been realized by all who bought in after there were 2 resorts to stay at and taken into account as part of an informed purchase decision. You won't need a place to post this prediction as I'll be reminding the group when these posts come around. However, I think we're already seeing more posts about difficulty booking certain resorts and times of the year.