Grand Floridian 2 info

[DVCPAT]

Well, I happen to really like the Riviera. And Aulani! And I think that one of the reasons Disney is not selling VGF direct right now is that the price will open lower than $255. Hard for me to believe that it will sell higher with no kitchen sink, a less than 50 year length, a new building with studios exclusively that appeal to value oriented buyers, and no history whatsoever in the last thirty years of a huge price disparity between new resorts.

I also don’t think they’re building it to let it sit there for months or years with high priced points with no concern whatsoever about how long it will take to sell out. Though I love Aulani, and own there, they’re not going to want to repeat the same scenario.

Offsite DVC has a history of poor sales. Comparing offsite to onsite is apples to oranges. The price disparity may actually help poor sales of Aulani and Riviera. Disney will roll out the red carpet for VGF 2 and it will sell.
I remember a family member calling me when they were ready to purchase DVC and Disney was pushing Vero Beach. I suggested BWV because of the resale value and buy where you intend to stay. They sold BWV years later and made a nice profit. VGF 2 will increase the rack rate at GF and other home resort benefits will come into play.

 

[drusba]

Riviera is currently $201 per point, VGF $255. As an addition to VGF rather than being a new resort, the new studio prices will be whatever it is for all VGF sales, and there are likely to be price increases before the studios become part of the points to sell. What could occur is something like VGF going up another $25 before sales of the new studios begin and DVD giving VGF purchasers a $5 discount for a while from that price.

Price is not the only concern. A real unanswered question is points per night needed for the new studios. If the rooms were the same size and quality as the existing studios, the points per night would remain the same. However, the hotel rooms being converted are larger than the existing studios and room size has traditionally been a definite factor used by DVC in determining points needed per night for rooms. If DVD makes the points needed for the new studios higher than the existing studios, current VGF owners could face the nightmare that a lot of new purchasers will be competing for the lower cost studios that exist now. If that happens, you could potentially see the existing studios have the same 11-month problem as value studios at AKV.

 

[DonMacGregor]

It still begs the question as to why more than 40% of all direct points sold in July were not for their new resort with a longer contract life.

Well, that's 40% divided amongst 14 other resorts. Just averaging that out (a gross oversimplification I will readily admit) gets you just under 3% per O14 resorts. Some will obviously be higher, and some lower, but you're still comparing +/- 60% to +/- 3% when placing RR head to head with any other single resort. If you assume (I know, I know) that Aulani, based on the active marketing by Disney, is their second-best direct seller, even at a dramatic drop-off percentage-wise, then that 3% average for the remaining 13 resorts is actully lower.

Also, that 40% is being purchased by a sophisticated buyer group: current DVC owners who; A. know they can buy (and are allowed to buy) direct at other resorts (unlike the general public) and B. are buying add-on points to their current home resort or expanding their ownership. Disney is never going to sell "100%" of points in any month solely for their current flagship seller as current owners will always be representing some percentage of direct sales.

While the math is VERY rough, I still think that's how you have to look at it (or in some very similar manner).

 

[DVCPAT]

If DVD makes the points needed for the new studios higher than the existing studios, current VGF owners could face the nightmare that a lot of new purchasers will be competing for the lower cost studios that exist now. If that happens, you could potentially see the existing studios have the same 11-month problem as value studios at AKV.

This is my concern. I prefer VGF 1 location and layout.

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

Riviera is currently $201 per point, VGF $255. As an addition to VGF rather than being a new resort, the new studio prices will be whatever it is for all VGF sales, and there are likely to be price increases before the studios become part of the points to sell. What could occur is something like VGF going up another $25 before sales of the new studios begin and DVD giving VGF purchasers a $5 discount for a while from that price.

Price is not the only concern. A real unanswered question is points per night needed for the new studios. If the rooms were the same size and quality as the existing studios, the points per night would remain the same. However, the hotel rooms being converted are larger than the existing studios and room size has traditionally been a definite factor used by DVC in determining points needed per night for rooms. If DVD makes the points needed for the new studios higher than the existing studios, current VGF owners could face the nightmare that a lot of new purchasers will be competing for the lower cost studios that exist now. If that happens, you could potentially see the existing studios have the same 11-month problem as value studios at AKV.

VGF was a sold out resort and was $255. If I remember correctly, as soon as they announced the addition they stopped offering it as an add-on option / no longer is there a reference point for price. Yup just checked - it's not an option currently:
https://disneyvacationclub.disney.go.com/add-vacation-points/. So current price with adding those 1.5 million points to inventory is all speculative at this point - we just know what that supply and demand inflated price was when it was a sold out resort.

 

[Marionnette]

Well, that's 40% divided amongst 14 other resorts. Just averaging that out (a gross oversimplification I will readily admit) gets you just under 3% per O14 resorts. Some will obviously be higher, and some lower, but you're still comparing +/- 60% to +/- 3% when placing RR head to head with any other single resort. If you assume (I know, I know) that Aulani, based on the active marketing by Disney, is their second-best direct seller, even at a dramatic drop-off percentage-wise, then that 3% average for the remaining 13 resorts is actully lower.

Also, that 40% is being purchased by a sophisticated buyer group: current DVC owners who; A. know they can buy (and are allowed to buy) direct at other resorts (unlike the general public) and B. are buying add-on points to their current home resort or expanding their ownership. Disney is never going to sell "100%" of points in any month solely for their current flagship seller as current owners will always be representing some percentage of direct sales.

While the math is VERY rough, I still think that's how you have to look at it (or in some very similar manner).

That doesn't take into account past performance of other resorts which, when they were the shiny new object, garnered 75%-80% of the entire direct market, with the exception of AUL (which, BTW was eclipsed by OKW as the 2nd highest-selling direct resort in July). For every 3 points sold at RIV in July of this year, DVC sold a point at their oldest resort!

There's no denying that direct sales have not recovered to their pre-pandemic levels but even in August 2019, RIV only accounted for 59% of all direct sales. Why hasn't RIV been taking a larger chunk out of the direct market?

I'm not slamming RIV. I don't want to own there but I wouldn't object to staying there at some point. It's a pretty resort with a decent location. But there's something about it that isn't clicking for people.

 

[gkrykewy]

That doesn't take into account past performance of other resorts which, when they were the shiny new object, garnered 75%-80% of the entire direct market, with the exception of AUL (which, BTW was eclipsed by OKW as the 2nd highest-selling direct resort in July). For every 3 points sold at RIV in July of this year, DVC sold a point at their oldest resort!

There's no denying that direct sales have not recovered to their pre-pandemic levels but even in August 2019, RIV only accounted for 59% of all direct sales. Why hasn't RIV been taking a larger chunk out of the direct market?

I'm not slamming RIV. I don't want to own there but I wouldn't object to staying there at some point. It's a pretty resort with a decent location. But there's something about it that isn't clicking for people.

I just think there aren’t as many new membership buyers as usual right now; I think a disproportionate share of purchases are addons by current members with pandemic cash to burn— partly because a disproportionate share of WDW guests since COVID reopening have been DVC members. This would explain a more mixed distribution of resort point purchases than usual, and Disney reacting with ROFR, OKW buybacks, etc.

Riviera is a great place to stay btw. Definitely worth a try unless you are short on points.

 

[Paul Stupin]

Offsite DVC has a history of poor sales. Comparing offsite to onsite is apples to oranges. The price disparity may actually help poor sales of Aulani and Riviera. Disney will roll out the red carpet for VGF 2 and it will sell.
I remember a family member calling me when they were ready to purchase DVC and Disney was pushing Vero Beach. I suggested BWV because of the resale value and buy where you intend to stay. They sold BWV years later and made a nice profit. VGF 2 will increase the rack rate at GF and other home resort benefits will come into play.

I agree. But VGF2 won’t sell if it’s priced disproportionately higher than every other DVC resort, especially since it’s all studios.

 

[brazzledazzler]

But my point was that the statement that no one wants RIV is inaccurate. People do and people are buying it. It is a different product than others and that I am sure plays into it but it’s not so far off to say it’s a failure.

Agreed! 100%. My family are educated and informed buyers and we bought at RIV. We love the resort and are excited for decades of enjoyment there and at all current DVC & future resorts.

RIV is selling, but you can’t compare sales of this resort to similar DVC resorts—the world shut down for months, there is no international travel, there are labor shortages and a pandemic still rages on.

We are not living in 2019 or before, you can’t pretend we are and compare sales to years ago.

I agree with @Sandisw, if sales were hurting the bottom line terribly there would be more incentives.

Off topic: I also believe VGF2 will have resale restrictions, and if that happens then I do believe RIV may see a boost in sales if pricing is higher at VGF2.

 

[Marionnette]

I just think there aren’t as many new membership buyers as usual right now; I think a disproportionate share of purchases are addons by current members with pandemic cash to burn— partly because a disproportionate share of WDW guests since COVID reopening have been DVC members. This would explain a more mixed distribution of resort point purchases than usual, and Disney reacting with ROFR, OKW buybacks, etc.

Riviera is a great place to stay btw. Definitely worth a try unless you are short on points.

The current direct sales being driven by existing members makes sense if you're only looking at the sales which have occurred since the start of the pandemic. But as I pointed out, even in pre-pandemic August 2019, RIV was only pulling 59% of all direct sales.

 

[Sandisw]

That doesn't take into account past performance of other resorts which, when they were the shiny new object, garnered 75%-80% of the entire direct market, with the exception of AUL (which, BTW was eclipsed by OKW as the 2nd highest-selling direct resort in July). For every 3 points sold at RIV in July of this year, DVC sold a point at their oldest resort!

There's no denying that direct sales have not recovered to their pre-pandemic levels but even in August 2019, RIV only accounted for 59% of all direct sales. Why hasn't RIV been taking a larger chunk out of the direct market?

I'm not slamming RIV. I don't want to own there but I wouldn't object to staying there at some point. It's a pretty resort with a decent location. But there's something about it that isn't clicking for people.

However, the numbers were much higher once the resort opened in Dec 2019. They did shoot up once people actually could view the resort. That month was about 77%. January 2020 was 81%. February 2020 was 80% So, they had months pre pandemic that were very strong.

Having said that, I did look at the actual sales, and it does appear that most of the other sales were smaller contracts on average, which IMO supports add ons vs a new buyer, Other than OKW which sold 200 deeds compared to 399 at RIV, the other resorts sold very few…

Is it current owners shying away or new buyers? And current owners may be adding on because they are going to the resort they own?

I don’t think anyone can argue that many current owners won’t buy because of restrictions, but I am just not sure it’s putting off those who are new in the same way.

VGF will be a big test. It sold well and fast at $145 to $155/point when it started Will it do the same if it’s $100/pt with only 44 years left, especially now it will be mostly studios?

 

[DVCPAT]

I agree. But VGF2 won’t sell if it’s priced disproportionately higher than every other DVC resort, especially since it’s all studios.

We’ll see…. Inflation is having a great impact on rising vacation costs and Disney never leaves any money on the table. I believe Disney will use the higher cost of VGF2 to promote sales of the other resorts. Different strokes for different folks… some of us favor location, location, location and been willing to pay for it.

 

[gkrykewy]

However, the numbers were much higher once the resort opened in Dec 2019. They did shoot up once people actually could view the resort. That month was about 77%. January 2020 was 81%. February 2020 was 80% So, they had months pre pandemic that were very strong.

This was us- zero interest in RIV prior to opening, and then we stayed there with a cash discount and were surprised to discover we love it. We bought an add on last summer when sales resumed and discounts were very good. In the market for another add on now, and it will either be GF2 or RIV depending on pricing/incentives. We have very little interest in studios these days, so if we buy GF2 we’ll be taking those GF1 buyers’ 1-bedrooms

 

[PinkPixel]

Riviera is currently $201 per point, VGF $255. As an addition to VGF rather than being a new resort, the new studio prices will be whatever it is for all VGF sales, and there are likely to be price increases before the studios become part of the points to sell. What could occur is something like VGF going up another $25 before sales of the new studios begin and DVD giving VGF purchasers a $5 discount for a while from that price.

Price is not the only concern. A real unanswered question is points per night needed for the new studios. If the rooms were the same size and quality as the existing studios, the points per night would remain the same. However, the hotel rooms being converted are larger than the existing studios and room size has traditionally been a definite factor used by DVC in determining points needed per night for rooms. If DVD makes the points needed for the new studios higher than the existing studios, current VGF owners could face the nightmare that a lot of new purchasers will be competing for the lower cost studios that exist now. If that happens, you could potentially see the existing studios have the same 11-month problem as value studios at AKV.

I was only interested in VGF for the 2 bedrooms, and they are not selling points now. If I bought into VGF2 I would only be looking for those. That would reduce access to those to current owners I assume. Why did they not build more family options here? Is it possible to get connecting studios?

 

[macman123]

My take on this is that they will push VGF2 for sales and it will be a higher price than RIV.

If they dont bite, the guides can say, well here, look at RIV. Its cheaper per point and has a longer deed.

It would then seem far more attractive than it may be currently is.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

I agree. But VGF2 won’t sell if it’s priced disproportionately higher than every other DVC resort, especially since it’s all studios.

I thought VGF2 was going to be part of the same existing VGF association. If so, why would Disney market the points as all studios, given there are 1-bed, 2-bed, and 3-bed options?

 

[Paul Stupin]

We’ll see…. Inflation is having a great impact on rising vacation costs and Disney never leaves any money on the table. I believe Disney will use the higher cost of VGF2 to promote sales of the other resorts. Different strokes for different folks… some of us favor location, location, location and been willing to pay for it.

They’re not going to expand VGF and price it so high that it won’t sell, but will instead drive buyers to other cheaper DVC resorts. I’m pretty sure Big Pine Key is being remodeled because Disney actually wants to sell it. Personally, I think the strategy is pretty clear. Do it on the cheap and make a quick buck. And, as Sandisw has mentioned, the new 150 point minimum for new buyers will increase the price anyway.

I think Disney stopped selling it at $255 for the very reason that sales will open at a lower price. It’s the law of supply and demand. VGF is no longer a sold out resort, hundreds of thousands of new points will be available, and they’ll price them to move, but still higher than Riviera.

 

[Paul Stupin]

I thought VGF2 was going to be part of the same existing VGF association. If so, why would Disney market the points as all studios, given there are 1-bed, 2-bed, and 3-bed options?

New buyers will be able to use the points for all the room options, but since the new building is exclusively studios, it makes sense that new buyers will primarily be interested in those.

 

[Ssplashhmtn]

New buyers will be able to use the points for all the room options, but since the new building is exclusively studios, it makes sense that new buyers will primarily be interested in those.

Sorry I don’t think DVC will market it as “all studios with no sink”. And so I don’t think “all studios” is a reason to assume the price will be low. It will be marketed as what it is- the flagship resort, a walk away from Cinderella’s castle. And it will be marketed to people staying at the resort that just paid $900+/night . And I think pricing will reflect that market.

 

[RaymOOOnd]

I think it will cost one arm and two legs.

In reality what it should do is make it easier to book a room at VGF with sleep around points, especially a studio...no? Not sure how that becomes an argument for spending one arm and two legs if you're already a DVC member.

It may just make me appreciate my PVB points a bit more, because that's also studio-predominant, a walk to the magic kingdom and cost me a bargain bin $139pp resale a short while ago