Future Trends for VGC resale?

[BrianLo]

You think prices are going to go back to $150 to $160pp? Or to $195 adjusted for inflation?

190’s, maybe rarely a 180’s at ‘steal’. If the broader DVC market overall stays where it is long enough and ROFR stays quiet on most of the portfolio.

 

[AstroBlasters]

190’s, maybe rarely a 180’s at ‘steal’. If the broader DVC market overall stays where it is long enough and ROFR stays quiet on most of the portfolio.

Well, any market has to have two sides of a trade.

I don’t think VGC has a large enough supply of points available to drop down to those levels outside of a dramatic economic shock… and then you have the points that there is an upcoming refurb and that the property is going to be more valuable with Disneyland Forward….

And at some point Disney steps in and says “ha ha nice try” with ROFR given the huge active demand for small VGC direct points.

Would $100pp really not a large enough spread for ROFR?

 

[BrianLo]

Well, any market has to have two sides of a trade.

I don’t think VGC has a large enough supply of points available to drop down to those levels outside of a dramatic economic shock… and then you have the points that there is an upcoming refurb and that the property is going to be more valuable with Disneyland Forward….

And at some point Disney steps in and says “ha ha nice try” with ROFR given the huge active demand for small VGC direct points.

Would $100pp really not a large enough spread for ROFR?

Perhaps not when it ran up 150$+. Why did every other resort reset actually below their 2019 inflation adjusted baseline. Why can VGC not? I’m not even suggesting that, just that it will reset to its inflated baseline because more premiums are apparent.

I’m calling out VGC specifically because its Pandemic bubble did not have the same organic opportunity to release, it had its speculative bubble in 2023 on top.

All of those things you mention I still think are priced in to a 190’s price point. But I also think a rather low VDH resale opportunity will be coming down the line.

As you mention though, ROFR sets a base.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Perhaps not when it ran up 150$+. Why did every other resort reset actually below their 2019 inflation adjusted baseline. Why can VGC not? I’m not even suggesting that, just that it will reset to its inflated baseline because more premiums are apparent.

I’m calling out VGC specifically because its Pandemic bubble did not have the same organic opportunity to release, it had its speculative bubble in 2023 on top.

All of those things you mention I still think are priced in to a 190’s price point. But I also think a rather low VDH resale opportunity will be coming down the line.

As you mention though, ROFR sets a base.

Every other resort is not Grand Cal. WDW and Beach property prices are borderline irrelevant.

 

[Tatebeck]

The VGC situation is very different than the WDW resorts so I think it's a different beast. Imagine if BWV and all of the other WDW DVC resorts didn't exist besides Beach Club and Riviera. And imagine Beach Club butted up directly onto the international gateway at EPCOT so that you had to go through the Beach Club to use that entrance, and use was restricted to Beach Club guests. And imagine that BCV expired in 2060. How much do you think it would go for? Right now you can get a restricted Riviera resale contract for around the same as a BCV, even without all those changes!

 

[BrianLo]

Every other resort is not Grand Cal. WDW and Beach property prices are borderline irrelevant.

VDH isn’t? You keep saying this and I keep agreeing. I just don’t think we agree on what that factor premium is.

I think it has a 15$ resort premium, a 15$ location premium, a 15$ scarcity premium and a 20$ ‘subsidy’ premium. The 20$ is why I don’t think it can possibly reset as low as it was in 2019.

If VDH settles into 160’s resale then I think you have a perfectly fine case for VGC where it is. If VDH pulls a RIV it’s going to be dragging down on it.

 

[Tatebeck]

I don't think VDH will probably ever sell for as low as RIV does. It will always hold a premium in my mind. It has a higher starting price, in a more expensive state, is walkable to parks, and has a lot less alternatives as far as DVC goes. If someone wants to stay only at Disneyland resorts, buying VDH resale may make sense. There will be a lot less RIV resale buyers because there are a lot more alternatives for cheap, less restricted resorts

 

[BrianLo]

I don't think VDH will probably ever sell for as low as RIV does. It will always hold a premium in my mind. It has a higher starting price, in a more expensive state, is walkable to parks, and has a lot less alternatives as far as DVC goes. If someone wants to stay only at Disneyland resorts, buying VDH resale may make sense. There will be a lot less RIV resale buyers because there are a lot more alternatives for cheap, less restricted resorts

I’d be one hundred percent in agreement before the transient taxes. I think VDH would resell for more than VGF. I’m not sure how much that impacts it’s future, but fun to speculate.

Funny thing is I’m the one being sour on the resort I own (VDH)

I think maybe the argument is I’m miscalculating the VDH future prospects and that’s misleading my VGC assumptions.

Is there also a ‘Disneyland premium’ of 25-30$? Perhaps, but it never really showed up in the first ten years of VGC’s lifecycle.

 

[AstroBlasters]

VDH isn’t? You keep saying this and I keep agreeing. I just don’t think we agree on what that factor premium is.

I think it has a 15$ resort premium, a 15$ location premium, a 15$ scarcity premium and a 20$ ‘subsidy’ premium. The 20$ is why I don’t think it can possibly reset as low as it was in 2019.

If VDH settles into 160’s resale then I think you have a perfectly fine case for VGC where it is. If VDH pulls a RIV it’s going to be dragging down on it.

I think VDH resale is materially overpriced at $160pp and theoretically could go low enough where it would pull buyers who would prefer VGC. (I.E $100pp)…. but if I’m being honest with myself I’m not really factoring in the long term upside of DLand fwd into the price because it’s so far away and will be a constriction nightmare around VDH for a decade.

Would Disney let VDH resale get to Riveria pricing? At what price point do people start buying points just to rent out given that there aren’t 11 other DVC resorts with competing points?

Would Disney ROFR VGC @ $200 because of the direct demand at $320?

I think the biggest delta between you and I is that I think more West Coast potential buyers are aware of DVC now then they were pre-pandemic and an increased VGC buyer pool without increased inventory will keep levels at $225+ without a major economic event….

 

[BrianLo]

I think VDH resale is materially overpriced at $160pp and theoretically could go low enough where it would pull buyers who would prefer VGC. (I.E $100pp)…. but if I’m being honest with myself I’m not really factoring in the long term upside of DLand fwd into the price because it’s so far away and will be a constriction nightmare around VDH for a decade.

Would Disney let VDH resale get to Riveria pricing? At what price point do people start buying points just to rent out given that there aren’t 11 other DVC resorts with competing points?

Would Disney ROFR VGC @ $200 because of the direct demand at $320?

I think the biggest delta between you and I is that I think more West Coast potential buyers are aware of DVC now then they were pre-pandemic and increased VGC buyer pool without increased inventory will keep levels at $225+ without a major economic event….

Certainly. Its recent history is kind of nuts. I cannot deny some form of market woke up to how great of a resort it is. I just flipped through the ROFR threads and my heart is sad. It was very much priced 130-140's in 2017. 150's in 2018.

DVC didn't ROFR a 115/pp in 2018. No, I did not mistype.

I have no idea if they'd ROFR a 200 now. Past history says no for some reason. The why not is a complete and utter mystery to me. Because I think there was a wait list for direct pre-pandemic too.

VGC seems to march to its own beat.

 

[CastAStone]

Would Disney ROFR VGC @ $200 because of the direct demand at $320?

I have no idea if they'd ROFR a 200 now.

After 5 years of watching the ROFR thread, I’ve determined that trying to guess what Disney would ROFR feels like trying to guess who will win the 2040 presidential election now.

I could take an educated guess, I might get it, but mostly,

 

[Jimmy Geppetto]

I think VDH resale is materially overpriced at $160pp and theoretically could go low enough where it would pull buyers who would prefer VGC. (I.E $100pp)…. but if I’m being honest with myself I’m not really factoring in the long term upside of DLand fwd into the price because it’s so far away and will be a constriction nightmare around VDH for a decade.

Would Disney let VDH resale get to Riveria pricing? At what price point do people start buying points just to rent out given that there aren’t 11 other DVC resorts with competing points?

Would Disney ROFR VGC @ $200 because of the direct demand at $320?

I think the biggest delta between you and I is that I think more West Coast potential buyers are aware of DVC now then they were pre-pandemic and increased VGC buyer pool without increased inventory will keep levels at $225+ without a major economic event….

Where can I get some at $225? Especially before the refurb?

The transient tax alone at VDH will keep VGC at a premium.

 

[Tatebeck]

Where can I get some at $225? Especially before the refurb?

The transient tax alone at VDH will keep VGC at a premium.

Just gotta keep an eye out! There were 2 contracts at 225 that popped up last month, a 90 and 100. I took the 100 cause I wanted the extra 10 points but didn't want to commit to both of them. IDK who got the other one but it disappeared a few minutes after my 100 pointer.

I was at work at the time and just checking one of the compiler sites.... I saw it and had to decide on the spot lol

 

[veginaz]

Just gotta keep an eye out! There were 2 contracts at 225 that popped up last month, a 90 and 100. I took the 100 cause I wanted the extra 10 points but didn't want to commit to both of them. IDK who got the other one but it disappeared a few minutes after my 100 pointer.

I was at work at the time and just checking one of the compiler sites.... I saw it and had to decide on the spot lol

Curious who the broker was.

 

[Tatebeck]

Curious who the broker was.

No problem,
I was surprised to find it was actually the board sponsor https://www.dvcresalemarket.com

It was my first time using them. I guess it was someone who wanted to sell fast and agreed to list below market price

 

[veginaz]

No problem,
I was surprised to find it was actually the board sponsor https://www.dvcresalemarket.com

It was my first time using them. I guess it was someone who wanted to sell fast and agreed to list below market price

amazing deal

 

[AstroBlasters]

No problem,
I was surprised to find it was actually the board sponsor https://www.dvcresalemarket.com

It was my first time using them. I guess it was someone who wanted to sell fast and agreed to list below market price

I remember when those popped up… the VGC inventory had really started to pile up and wasn’t moving ….. I saw those contracts and thought “well… those will go quickly”…. then poof… gone

 

[Tatebeck]

I can see why they were piling up when a lot of people want 280-300 like when it was at the peak. No thanks lol

 

[Chili327]

I remember when those popped up… the VGC inventory had really started to pile up and wasn’t moving ….. I saw those contracts and thought “well… those will go quickly”…. then poof… gone

I can see why they were piling up when a lot of people want 280-300 like when it was at the peak. No thanks lol

Yep, I wish had more patience, I paid $270, but I really wanted less than 100, but more than 50, so 75 was the perfect fit & UY... at least that's how I justify it in my head.

 

[ClaraOswald]

Kind of off topic-ish.

I want 50ish VGC points in my current use year. Do you guys think one will ever pop up or am I going to have to consider a different UY??

I don't really "need" the points until trips starting in 2026. So I can definitely wait a while. But I worry about nothing ever showing up. Or the prices raising a crazy amount.