Future Trends for VGC resale?

[tx911]

Wellll I put in an offer. We shall see. I will likely be posting in the rejected offers thread pretty soon.

Rejected Offer thread today, Closing Time thread tomorrow!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Rejected Offer thread today, Closing Time thread tomorrow!

one can hope.

 

[kboo]

The points chart for VGC differs from VDH in a way that offsets some of the TOT. This morning I looked up a reservation in December at both properties. VGC was 8 points more per night than VDH for a 1 BR. That will certainly offset some of the TOT, although the TOT is still higher.

I decided to stay with our VGC reservation - the ToT for our 2br over Christmas week would have been over $1000 in ToT, even though it would have saved us about 100 points. True, renting 100 points out at even $15 pp would have netted us more, but there's the extra step(s) of renting, versus: I would have spent the extra points on another reservation for myself and adding more costs to another trip.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Sorry, not so much that it is being brought down because of VDH… more that it was pumped up because VDH and still hasn’t fully settled back down.

I guess my point is every other property has reset to its previous floor. So why does VGC have a new floor?

I think for all those reasons you mention it will still obviously be the most expensive property, there’s still some built in demand that will release as it slowly unwinds. But more an argument that if VGF is carrying a 125% premium and selling in the 160’s, I think VGC carrying a 150% premium and selling in the 190’s is not outside of the realm of possibilities. That is after all where it was before.

So I guess my question back to everyone is what changed that suddenly made VGC more valuable? I can follow an argument that VDH is neutral to the pricing. Though I’d argue slightly the opposite, if a DLR property can be eventually gotten at the 7mo window it takes some of the pressure and desperation off VGC. But in order for VGC to kick around 225 while the rest of the properties reset you’d have to argue it’s the one property in the system that suddenly isn’t just the most valuable, like it probably always way. But also deserves another secret FOMO premium.


I think the reason this isn’t a super receptive argument at the end of the day is a lot of people have bought in the last couple years here and are somewhat biased to not want it to drop further, in their hearts. Despite being willing to buy more if it does, which I’m sure many are.

The trouble of course are the Transient taxes on VDH, maybe no one previously considered VGC really subsidized and now they do, so I guess I can make a small argument that’s the sudden secret sauce.

I really think you are missing that as more west coast people discover DVC they want VGC as part of their portfolio. WDW pricing is borderline irrelevant because it’s all about the hotel pricing.

All VDH did was establish that VGC is worth the premium.

 

[CastAStone]

All VDH did was establish that VGC is worth the premium.

How do you square that with the minimum asking price to buy in to VGC falling $80/point since VDH opened?

 

[AstroBlasters]

How do you square that with the minimum asking price to buy in to VGC falling $80/point since VDH opened?

I bought VGC at $230pp with banked points just before they announced the VDH pricing because my wife really doesn’t like the mid century modern vibe of VDH.

The December before that I purchased VGC points for $225 a point.

So…. I think you just need to pull back your time horizon a bit.

 

[Tatebeck]

Yeah buying VGC a little while ago at around 300 would be like buying the resale Poly right now at 200+. You shouldn't buy at the peak after a quick run-up. It will come back down closer to pre-poly tower same association announcement prices after a while. Just like VGC is coming back down to earth now. I think VGC will stay at or above 200 for quite a while, maybe forever even unless they have some killer deals on VDH or a different amazing Disneyland DVC resort opens. It's just supply and demand. Everyone wants into VGC but it's small and in a premium location.

 

[Chili327]

How do you square that with the minimum asking price to buy in to VGC falling $80/point since VDH opened?

I call that a fluke.
You can't call $310 resale down to $260 "Falling" it's that $300+ was just inflated.

You shouldn't buy at the peak after a quick run-up.

This.

 

[BrianLo]

I bought VGC at $230pp with banked points just before they announced the VDH pricing because my wife really doesn’t like the mid century modern vibe of VDH.

The December before that I purchased VGC points for $225 a point.

So…. I think you just need to pull back your time horizon a bit.

All VDH did was establish that VGC is worth the premium.

Perhaps. I just think it was already worth a premium, I don't know if VDH changed that. This is a premium on top of a premium (on top of a premium that has deflated).

I too think everyone is a little sticky on the price they bought for. If you pull back your time horizon a little further, there's *possibly* more there.

 

[AstroBlasters]

Perhaps. I just think it was already worth a premium, I don't know if VDH changed that. This is a premium on top of a premium (on top of a premium that has deflated).

I too think everyone is a little sticky on the price they bought for. If you pull back your time horizon a little further, there's *possibly* more there.

You think prices are going to go back to $150 to $160pp? Or to $195 adjusted for inflation?

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

You think prices are going to go back to $150 to $160pp? Or to $195 adjusted for inflation?

If VGC ever goes back to $150, I shudder to think what the rest of DVC resorts look like— you can probably get VDH for less than $75, and goodness knows where the rest of WDW and Aulani hit.

I will be taking out a 2nd mortgage to back up the truck.

 

[Chili327]

If VGC ever goes back to $150, I shudder to think what the rest of DVC resorts look like— you can probably get VDH for less than $75, and goodness knows where the rest of WDW and Aulani hit.

I will be taking out a 2nd mortgage to back up the truck.

I’m thinking if the price was ever down that low it’s because the dues have gone through the roof.
I’ve become such a stickler of dues and almost carefree about price per point now. lol

 

[HyperspaceMountainPilot]

I’m thinking if the price was ever down that low it’s because the dues have gone through the roof.
I’ve become such a stickler of dues and almost carefree about price per point now. lol

Dues are uncertain, today’s price is knowable—but yes, dues exploding could turn any DVC into a VB situation—HOWEVER my guess is that if dues are exploding at VGC and VDH, they will continue to be relative deals because the hotel rates would be shooting upward as well.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I’m thinking if the price was ever down that low it’s because the dues have gone through the roof.
I’ve become such a stickler of dues and almost carefree about price per point now. lol

From a modeling perspective I can understand that, but…. to plays devils advocate….. the dues could change drastically (think large increase to labor and insurance costs) and that could tank the resale value like it does for most other time shares.

The buy in you have control over, but the rate of change of dues you do not.

On another note, there is one popular DVC personality (who is usually very assured of his own opinion) who sold VGC because he was confident that the VDH dues would be low due to its tower structure…. imagine his surprise when the VDH dues came out as 11%+ higher than VGC….. AND the tax…. for a similar point chart!

 

[CastAStone]

On another note, there is one popular DVC personality (who is usually very assured of his own opinion) who sold VGC because he was confident that the VDH dues would be low due to its tower structure

This makes my eye twitch.

 

[VGCgroupie]

Rejected Offer thread today, Closing Time thread tomorrow!

You called it! Offer accepted. Truly shocked. Pretty happy. (I may have told my husband don't worry they wont accept it. hahaha)

 

[JoshF]

You called it! Offer accepted. Truly shocked. Pretty happy. (I may have told my husband don't worry they wont accept it. hahaha)

What did you get?

 

[VGCgroupie]

What did you get?

VGC 232pp seller pays closing. no pts til 2025 though.

 

[Tatebeck]

VGC 232pp seller pays closing. no pts til 2025 though.

Not bad at all! Congrats!

 

[VGCgroupie]

Not bad at all! Congrats!

thanks!!