Future Riviera Availability

[ProudMommyof2]

So, when considering the RIV resale restrictions, what concerns me the most is future availability.
As contracts are sold in resale, and those owners can only book RIV, it will likely get very difficult to book your home resort. You would absolutely have to book right at the 11 month window.

Does anyone have any idea what percentage of the older resorts point allocations are owned by direct vs resale owners?

 

[DVCsloth]

If I were in the market to add on I would probably add Riviera Direct, but I would be a little cautious about adding it resale.

 

[Marionnette]

So, when considering the RIV resale restrictions, what concerns me the most is future availability.
As contracts are sold in resale, and those owners can only book RIV, it will likely get very difficult to book your home resort. You would absolutely have to book right at the 11 month window.

Does anyone have any idea what percentage of the older resorts point allocations are owned by direct vs resale owners?

I think that booking within the home resort window will be critical for RIV resale owners. But they will still have that 4-month advantage over non-owners. They will encounter the same booking frustrations that owners at other resorts face when it comes to high-demand periods and the limited number of studios. In that way, they will be no different than other owners. The real problem will come at 7 months or less. RIV resale is not for those who cannot plan their trips well in advance.

As to the percentage of resale ownership at older resorts, I have read that it's around 10% but I have never seen any documentation to back up the claim.

 

[Sandisw]

For home resort bookings, IMO, there will be no difference from other resorts.

Where it will become more difficult, is at 7 months because less owners will be moving trips.

Personally, I don’t even think it will be an issue because it will take a long time to have any number of resale owners. And, depending on how the market goes for the contracts, many direct owners may not even sell if resale value drops a lot.

None of it stopped me from buying a resale contract but I know exaclty when I will use the points each year and will book at 11 months.

 

[DVCsloth]

For home resort bookings, IMO, there will be no difference from other resorts.

Where it will become more difficult, is at 7 months because less owners will be moving trips.

Personally, I don’t even think it will be an issue because it will take a long time to have any number of resale owners. And, depending on how the market goes for the contracts, many direct owners may not even sell if resale value drops a lot.

None of it stopped me from buying a resale contract but I know exacly when I will use the points each year and will book at 11 months.

There is always the possibility of needing to cancel a trip and this is where I would be most concerned. I do think I would try to avoid banking Riviera Resale points. This way it leaves a little cushion in case something does come up and you can always use them the following year in the owners window.

 

[Mrskmid]

I just bought at RIV and we considered what you said until I read somewhere on her that the actual percentage of resale owners is along the lines of 20-something% keeping that in mind and also that Riviera is a dedicated DVC resort and not a shared resort gave us piece of mind to buy.

 

[RoseGold]

I've seen some crazy numbers on foreclosure alone, not even standard resale. And that was when DVC kept going up and up and up. I don't see how these guesses could possibly be right. I think they're low. I'd expect a lot of resale buyers.

We have no idea what percentage of RIV will become resale. It won't even be sold out for years.

I'd be concerned because some categories of RIV booking are already tight. And that's with a ton of unsold points, practically no resale, and practically no foreclosure right now.

 

[Nabas]

Any effect will take decades to manifest itself.

For the sake of discussion, let's assume 1% of direct buyers sell every year. This means it will be 20 years before 20% of Riviera members will have the restriction.

 

[RoseGold]

For the sake of discussion, let's assume 1% of direct buyers sell every year. This means it will be 20 years before 20% of Riviera members will have the restriction.

Foreclosure alone is higher than that. And that was when DVC was at least trying to be affordable to the average family.

RIV is incredibly expensive in points and $/point, and they don't have those kiosks because of people on these boards with spreadsheets. Of course a lot of RIV is going to change hands. Plenty of people bite off more than they can or want to chew.

That said, I totally would have been a 3rd class member with RIV resale if it were cheaper. I think it's 6th class (?) maybe because there are so many categories of member now. Resale hasn't done this yet, but it won't be sold out for a long time.

 

[Nabas]

Foreclosure alone is higher than that. And that was when DVC was at least trying to be affordable to the average family.

I'm assuming most direct buyers finance through Disney. So when a property is foreclosed on, don't those points (eventually) get sold back to Disney, who then just sells them as direct again?

 

[RoseGold]

I'm assuming most direct buyers finance through Disney. So when a property is foreclosed on, don't those points (eventually) get sold back to Disney, who then just sells them as direct again?

Maybe. Plenty of contracts here have been bought resale from flippers who bought at foreclosure sales. Especially when a resort is in active sales, so Disney is not looking for more points.

Both Disney (for dues) and the many finance companies can and do foreclose. Even Disney's finance company is not the same entity that would sell direct points.

 

[Sandisw]

There is always the possibility of needing to cancel a trip and this is where I would be most concerned. I do think I would try to avoid banking Riviera Resale points. This way it leaves a little cushion in case something does come up and you can always use them the following year in the owners window.

That is always the risk but if I had an issue where I had to cancel and could not go, and couldn’t find a time to reschedule it, then I’d rent it as confirmed or I’d offer it up to friends and family.

The contract I bought, I have 125 banked points which will be used in January and February with my Dec UY. So, if something were to happen I’d have plenty of time to find something since I have flexibility with travel.

However it is something to be concerned with and I would recommend if someone does buy resale at RIV the UY is right before travel to ensure a long time to reschedule.

 

[JETSDAD]

The percentage of foreclosures not bought by Disney is far less than 1%/year. During the early years of ownership in new resorts foreclosed contracts are going to be left owing far more than the contracts are worth on the resale market. As a result that will not be bought by 3rd party buyers and will instead be bought back by Disney who will resell direct. As contracts are paid off they are less likely to be foreclosed on.

 

[dvc lover 1970]

I've seen some crazy numbers on foreclosure alone, not even standard resale. And that was when DVC kept going up and up and up. I don't see how these guesses could possibly be right. I think they're low. I'd expect a lot of resale buyers.

We have no idea what percentage of RIV will become resale. It won't even be sold out for years.

I'd be concerned because some categories of RIV booking are already tight. And that's with a ton of unsold points, practically no resale, and practically no foreclosure right now.

I agree with you. I think RIV is a beautiful resort but the restrictions have kept us away. I thought about direct - wished we purchased during the covid sale, but at this point-I am not paying 200 per point. I thought about small resale, but the restrictions make it really hard to swallow. I wonder if enough resale owners get locked out of booking if they will file a class action law suit because they cannot use their disney points at disney. I know many may disagree with me, but I think there is room for a class action suit if something like that should happen, in which case we may see changes to the resale restrictions, even if it becomes some sort of exchange fee to exchange into the legacy 14 resorts and the legacy 14 resale owners (post 2019) pay an exchange fee to transfer into RIV.

 

[RoseGold]

The percentage of foreclosures not bought by Disney is far less than 1%/year. During the early years of ownership in new resorts foreclosed contracts are going to be left owing far more than the contracts are worth on the resale market. As a result that will not be bought by 3rd party buyers and will instead be bought back by Disney who will resell direct. As contracts are paid off they are less likely to be foreclosed on.

Timeshare loans default at over 5%. Disney itself claimed less than 1% in 2015, when DVC was at an all time high cost and it was almost impossible to be underwater buying direct with cash. I'd link to it, but banned site. If you weren't underwater, you would sell instead of foreclosing. Foreclosures would be focused on the newer, not paid off resorts, so much higher than 1% at those and much lower at the older resorts. Most DVC sellers did fine because prices keep escalating, so even that level of foreclosure says a whole lot. Even if you can't pay, you'd sell your old contract and come out fine because of the price of DVC resale, historically.

CCV/RIV aren't following that pattern. It's possible for CCV/RIV buyers not to be underwater, but not likely. The people who are going to be underwater are going to be recent direct buyers or people who financed, even resale financing of older resorts. Those financing charges flip the math to underwater quickly. It's only possible to be underwater without financing recently, like the first few years of BLT.

If current trends hold for a couple years, CCV/RIV might really spike the foreclosures up. Add in financing, and a lot of people are very underwater on these contracts. If you have to bring money to the table to sell, foreclosure might be a better option.

 

[drusba]

As far as what to expect as a resale purchaser at Riviera, one should assume that safety will dictate reserving at 11 months out. Moreover, Riviera is trending to even have problems reserving at exactly 11-months out many times of the year for Tower or standard studios and sometimes in the fall even preferred studios. If you are considering resale at Riviera and want the safest bet, you should buy enough points to get at least a 1BR

 

[UrsulaWantsYourSoul]

As far as current availability you have to remember that not all units have been declared so aren’t available. There are so few Tower studios so those will always be hard to get but when many aren’t available to use on points yet….

The other piece not discussed much is that what offsets the “resale owners can only book at Riviera” is that newer resale owners of other properties *can’t* book at Riviera. So that should help some in a variety of ways. Don’t get me wrong - is much prefer the resale restriction didn’t exist. That said I don’t *have* to have to have standard view studio in December and tend to book at 11 months so know I’m a subset of owners.

 

[ziravan]

I believe that standard and tower studios will be problematic within the first decade of this 50 yr contract and impossible by year 15. By year 20, if this policy doesn’t change, every day at 11 months year round will be a scramble for those studios - and probably all studios.

I predict that DVC will have no choice but to either modify these rules or give direct buyers a booking advantage: Direct can book at 11, resale at 9, everybody else at 7. Those changes will be made about the time the 2042 resorts end not because those things are linked, but that’s about the 20 yr mark where resale owners start to reach a critical mass at RIV.

That said, DW and I stayed 2 days last weekend at RIV and we find that we love it.

We are now considering selling our 250 pt BCV contract we bought for $84/pt in 2014 and putting the gains into a RIV contract. But. Because of the concerns of the OP, we would only buy RIV:

WITH A FIXED/GUARANTEED WEEK.

I think a guaranteed week will be essential to avoid the 11-month scramble which these rules will eventually create for all RIV owners.

 

[JETSDAD]

Timeshare loans default at over 5%. Disney itself claimed less than 1% in 2015, when DVC was at an all time high cost and it was almost impossible to be underwater buying direct with cash. I'd link to it, but banned site. If you weren't underwater, you would sell instead of foreclosing. Foreclosures would be focused on the newer, not paid off resorts, so much higher than 1% at those and much lower at the older resorts. Most DVC sellers did fine because prices keep escalating, so even that level of foreclosure says a whole lot. Even if you can't pay, you'd sell your old contract and come out fine because of the price of DVC resale, historically.

CCV/RIV aren't following that pattern. It's possible for CCV/RIV buyers not to be underwater, but not likely. The people who are going to be underwater are going to be recent direct buyers or people who financed, even resale financing of older resorts. Those financing charges flip the math to underwater quickly. It's only possible to be underwater without financing recently, like the first few years of BLT.

If current trends hold for a couple years, CCV/RIV might really spike the foreclosures up. Add in financing, and a lot of people are very underwater on these contracts. If you have to bring money to the table to sell, foreclosure might be a better option.

Nearly all foreclosures of properties sold direct in the last 5 years will not be sold to 3rd parties but will instead be bought by Disney. Most of those will be underwater because of accrued interest at extremely high rates, back dues, penalties, and legal costs associated with the foreclosure process. It is extremely rare that a Riviera contract would be purchased by a 3rd party via foreclosure right now.

Plenty of contracts sell that aren't underwater. Every foreclosure property purchased by a 3rd party (investors or anyone other than Disney) is a property that is not underwater. If the judgment is higher than the fair market value of the property then nobody is going to buy that as an investment.

So you're really looking a small slice of total foreclosure properties that would end up becoming resale owners.

 

[princesscinderella]

If you buy a foreclosure dose it become a “resale” purchase with the restrictions?