Fall Direct Incentives

[Chili327]

Club rooms at Jambo?

That's what I'm thinking, we can entice her!!

 

[CastAStone]

Supposedly RIV went on sale at $188 per point. Not sure if there were any incentives at the time.
Right now after WH & MB, you can be at $178 per point at 150 points.

How is this deal overall or just meh?

I've only bought resale at steals and resold a couple contracts and made a profit. I know if I buy RIV and want to resale down the line I'll probably take a big hit. I want to stay there, like the point chart, and want access to the others that are restricted.

Just wondering peoples thoughts on the overall deal today for RIV and what could we possibly see in a "Big Sale." How much lower per point?

Remember that inflation was pretty bad the first couple years after Covid; Riviera in inflation adjusted dollars is actually below its original price.

In any case, I think the current deal on Riviera is good. I wouldn’t suggest most people buy a direct contract over a resale one, however, in the case of Riviera, if you have your heart set on Riviera, and you can afford it, I would strongly suggest buying it direct.

If you look back historically over the last five years or so, excluding the immediate post Covid fire sale, the current offer is well to the aggressive side.

But as the base price approaches $250, I don’t think a $50 off sale for 200 points would be unreasonable, with magical beginnings on top of that. (I don’t think of magical beginnings as an incentive, I generally think it’s a bad deal). That would be a historically enormous sale, but as you I’m sure can math together, it wouldn’t be below today’s price in nominal dollars.

It is unbelievably difficult to predict what Disney will do with incentives.

 

[kboo]

Supposedly RIV went on sale at $188 per point. Not sure if there were any incentives at the time.
Right now after WH & MB, you can be at $178 per point at 150 points.

How is this deal overall or just meh?

It's good. I recall the Summer of VGF2 the $/pp at RIV being a little higher than VGF but when prorated over years remaining, was less. We bought VGF because we wanted Christmas at VGF, but now we have over 50% of our points at VGF and I look longingly at big units at Riviera.

I paid $162 for 175 and the base price had already gone up from $188 IIRC. No MB or welcome home. program though. Just discount off price.

We got RIV pre-opening at around 165-166 pp thinking that pre-opening deals for existing members would be the best deals ever. Then, of course, COVID came along. I don't really begrudge the lower price later ... much.

 

[marmentrout85]

I asked about SSR vs RIV and there is only about a $2,000 difference right now because the incentives for RIV are better. And the contract is longer....so I'm not sure SSR is really a good buy vs RIV.

My bad, I was just talking about SSR resale not direct.

 

[MICKIMINI]

Does anyone know where you can still get a fixed week, besides Poly Tower? Thanks!

 

[AstroBlasters]

Does anyone know where you can still get a fixed week, besides Poly Tower? Thanks!

VDH, RIV, VGF, AUL….

 

[AstroBlasters]

That's what I'm thinking, we can entice her!!

I think Californians think of Florida as Texans think of Oklahoma or as New Yorkers think of New Jersey….

 

[Genie+]

We got RIV pre-opening at around 165-166 pp thinking that pre-opening deals for existing members would be the best deals ever. Then, of course, COVID came along. I don't really begrudge the lower price later ... much.

There’s the inflation between then and now but you also got 4 or 5 more years of points too.

All in all very good! Both sides of the fence can be green

 

[MICKIMINI]

VDH, RIV, VGF, AUL….

Thank you!!

 

[atthebeachclub]

There’s the inflation between then and now but you also got 4 or 5 more years of points too.

All in all very good! Both sides of the fence can be green

Yeah, the best deal probably is buying early to get more points!

 

[Mikey15]

VDH, RIV, VGF, AUL….

VGF? Even as a sold out resort?

 

[AstroBlasters]

VGF? Even as a sold out resort?

I mean, you can’t buy points now. But they sell fixed weeks if they are selling points.

 

[Brian Noble]

I generally think it’s a bad deal

Can you say more?

From where I sit $20/pt on a rental for no effort is not terrible, especially because it is post-tax.

 

[DianaMB333]

When should the Fall Incentives be released?
Thanks

 

[AstroBlasters]

The "holiday" season tends to have better incentives than "winter". (Holiday being Nov-Jan, Winter being Jan/Feb-March/April) The last two summers have been fairly competitive, but December/January typically brings a base price increase, so might be a wash. The potential 2025 summer savings won't necessarily matter given a higher base price.

I'll be curious how they run the "holiday" incentives given we are getting new incentives on Oct 1, with Poly only on sale Oct. 29 to new members. Will this "fall" round run through the end of the year, or an unusual-ish shorter round of only a couple months, with new incentives in Nov/Dec? We'll see.

https://dvcfan.com/general-dvc/new-winter-incentives-accompany-dvc-price-increases/

https://dvcfan.com/general-dvc/holiday-2023-disney-vacation-club-incentives/

https://dvcfan.com/general-dvc/winter-2023-disney-vacation-club-incentives/

https://dvcfan.com/general-dvc/holiday-2022-disney-vacation-club-incentives/

Those past holiday and winter incentive plans actually make the current incentive plans look pretty good….

 

[atthebeachclub]

Can you say more?

From where I sit $20/pt on a rental for no effort is not terrible, especially because it is post-tax.

I have suspicions people who take Magical Beginnings may tend to add on earlier than those who don’t because they start with a point deficit potentially.

 

[supercarrie]

When should the Fall Incentives be released?
Thanks

October 1 - usually the boards will have someone figure them out by about 8am ET. Certainly by mid morning, someone will have posted the news from their guide. Keep an eye out on here or www.dvcfan.com or www.dvcnews.com

 

[Brian Noble]

From where I sit $20/pt on a rental for no effort is not terrible, especially because it is post-tax.

I'm going to see if I can channel @CastAStone here. The problem is not that it is a bad deal relative to point rentals--it's not bad, and in fact pretty good. The problem is that point rentals are often not a good deal for the owner, and are particularly not a good deal for new direct purchasers.

Suppose I bought 200 points currently at RIV, as a new buyer, with Welcome Home and the developer incentive. That puts my cost basis per point at $199.50. I rent my first year's points out at $20/pt gross. I pay only partial dues on the first year's points--on average, that's 50%, or $4.42/pt. So, I net $15.58 per point. That's an after-tax rate of return of 15.58/199.50, or 7.8% on the first year's points.

Sounds great, right?

The problem with 7.8% is that it is not particularly very good. The long-term pre-tax rate of return on the SP500 is 9.8%. Most families will pay either 0% or 15%* for long-term capital gains taxes. Even if it is 15%, the SP500 yields 8.3% post-tax.

The math gets worse---much much worse---if you are financing the DVC purchase. And even in the very best case--you pay cash for the purchase and next to no dues on the first year's worth of points--you still don't go above 10% RoR. Break-even is fine, I guess, but it's not a "good deal".

Perhaps the best argument for it is if it manages to push you from "probably financing" to "I can pay cash." But, the difference is only $4,000. That's just over 10% of the purchase price, and is probably not material in the "finance vs. cash" question.

------
* The top rate is 20%. But if you are paying 20%, your investment returns are such that you probably don't care about magical beginnings.

 

[Brian Noble]

Whoops, I got the math wrong. I was using $2500 as the Welcome Home offer, but it is only $2000. That puts cost basis at $202, and pre-tax RoR at 7.7% on average. Not a huge difference, but still.

 

[davidhr]

I totally get the math, but I always say if we’re going to compare anything about DVC or timeshares against investing in the market, then the math will tell you that the luxury purchase isn’t the right choice most of the time.