While I don't think the answer to that is 'quite' so cut and dried ... I believe Disney estimated some number of current bookings as 'hoping for
free dining' but that's just it -- it was an estimate. They'll know in a week or three how correct their estimates were. They may then adjust the room availability for free dining or extend the booking window.
OR -- they may leave things exactly as they are depending on how bookings continue thru the summer, they may then offer a PIN offer or general public code offer for a completely different discount during the same time as free dining.
I've heard that the response rate for their PIN offers (40% fiasco not withstanding) is very high and a discount offer of as little as 20% usually gets an excellent response and can cause a serious jump in bookings.
Personally.. I only book when I absolutely *know* I'm going.. usually less than 8 weeks before the actual trip. As a result, I tend to be willing to accept whatever room is affordable and available and only once was I able to take advantage of a PIN offer.
I know that I'm unusual in the way I travel. I'm not a family with kids and a wife and vacation and work schedules to work around. Nor is any given trip considered to be my 'one trip of a lifetime'.
Getting back to your question, there are many factors to consider the impact on the limited availability of free dining this year:
- this year they offered the bounceback program which was not in effect last year
- this year they offered a specific free dining promotion to the UK market during roughly the same timeframe. They didn't do that last year. Last year, UK people were generally left to find out about it on their own and very few did.. and some felt excluded.
- many more people booked this year in 'hopes' of free dining.. than did last year
- the travel market in general and WDW specifically is on an up-swing in attendance ..
So, all in all, more demand = fewer rooms available to discount.
Knox