Estimate the Best Contract price we'll see

[byurick]

Does Disney really care about resale pricing though?

 

[MISCdisney21]

Does Disney really care about resale pricing though?

Maybe not specifically but imagine they have to at some level. If they’re trying to sell a resort at $235pp and resale is under $50, they aren’t going to have too many direct buyers.

Also can make a little money flipping if they buy some Saratoga at say $90pp and sell it direct with incentives for maybe $185.

 

[Chili327]

Does Disney really care about resale pricing though?

Maybe not specifically but imagine they have to at some level. If they’re trying to sell a resort at $235pp and resale is under $50, they aren’t going to have too many direct buyers.

Also can make a little money flipping if they buy some Saratoga at say $90pp and sell it direct with incentives for maybe $185.

Yep, resale is already a good enough deal that I’d never buy direct, imagine when they keep raising the direct price and resale falls even more, now the value of direct isn’t even worth what it was because resale value isn’t there. They are slowly devaluing their product instead of adding value which is what made DVC so much better than a regular timeshare in the first place.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

Maybe not specifically but imagine they have to at some level. If they’re trying to sell a resort at $235pp and resale is under $50, they aren’t going to have too many direct buyers.

Also can make a little money flipping if they buy some Saratoga at say $90pp and sell it direct with incentives for maybe $185.

I only wonder how much capital the company is willing to throw at purchasing back points especially of resorts they aren't actively selling. Even if some real low numbers started popping up on let's say any of the 2042s or even a BLT are they really inclined to "save the resale value". I can see for some of the resorts like Poly and VGC but I think many of the O14 will be left to fend for themselves pricewise.

 

[CastAStone]

Does Disney really care about resale pricing though?

No!

 

[CastAStone]

I think resale prices are significantly more likely to increase between now and August 2025 than decrease.

I do think there’s more downside on Vero, VGC, AKV, and maybe Riviera, (plus Poly is resettling to where it was before it inexplicably spiked 3 months ago) but all the rest of the resorts I think we’ve already likely seen or are at the bottom for now.

 

[VGCgroupie]

If anyone has a VB they want to sell for $15 let me know.

Did the math at $0pp. Still too high of a cost per yer per point for me.

 

[AstroBlasters]

I think resale prices are significantly more likely to increase between now and August 2025 than decrease.

I do think there’s more downside on Vero, VGC, AKV, and maybe Riviera, (plus Poly is resettling to where it was before it inexplicably spiked 3 months ago) but all the rest of the resorts I think we’ve already likely seen or are at the bottom for now.

I watched a clip today talking about Disney’s earnings. One of the points they made is that companies, like Disney, will need to start to roll back some of the price increases they made post pandemic as consumers start to feel more frugal and make substitutions.

They specifically called out Grand Flo, Poly, and the Contemporary and said people are choosing to go on cruises instead.

I think a lot of people purchased DVC resale as a way to push back on the cash prices…. but in reality there are only so many people who can afford these contracts and the dues.

If there is a roll back in hotel pricing…. THAT would impact the DVC resale pricing… particularly at the popular SAPs at WDW.

 

[AstroBlasters]

This is definitely not a prediction of average prices. I wanted to predict the lowest contract ppp we’d see pop up on the ROFR thread (or anywhere else just not sure where else we would get that info since the savviest shoppers are on these boards).

Ok… I like it. Just one-offs.

I’m going with VDH @ $115pp.

 

[Sandisw]

Does Disney really care about resale pricing though?

Only when they have a reason to care. I think we saw some PVB ROFR because they wanted resale prices to go up when they announced the tower would be the same association.

So, IMO, they benefit from the ebb and flow of it all and use ROFR when they have a need to take contracts back…and those needs change…

 

[CastAStone]

Did the math at $0pp. Still too high of a cost per yer per point for me.

I still calculate some value if I run the numbers the same way I do all the other resorts.

The problem is once I start using dues increase assumptions that are similar to what we’ve seen, renting becomes cheaper than owning in just a few years.

I watched a clip today talking about Disney’s earnings. One of the points they made is that companies, like Disney, will need to start to roll back some of the price increases they made post pandemic as consumers start to feel more frugal and make substitutions.

They specifically called out Grand Flo, Poly, and the a Contemporary and said people are choosing to go on cruises instead.

I think a lot of people purchased DVC resale as a way to push back on the cash prices…. but in reality there are only so many people who can afford these contracts and the dues.

If there is a roll back in hotel pricing…. THAT would impact the DVC resale pricing… particularly at the popular SAPs at WDW.

I agree with this overall, but Disney has been doing that with the hotels with very aggressive (35%) offers.

I think the fundamental problem is that the park ticket prices are too high.

But also I think some of this is cyclical from Covid (everyone did the US vacation first to test the waters, now they’re traveling international including cruises), and will settle back in by late next year, especially when Epic Universe opens and brings a swarm of people to Orlando.

 

[Instagramhusband]

I, and I think many of us feel that DVC contract prices will get to some amazing prices in the next 6-8 months. Let's guess what we think the lowest price per point numbers we'll see on the ROFR thread! In no particular order:

BLT - $95
VGF - $135
BWV - $85
BCV - $90
AKV - $80
SSR - $70
OKW - $60
Riv - $95
Poly - hard to even guess
VB - $15
BRV - $80
CCV - $105

Obviously if any of these prices come close it'll more than likely be a stripped contract but this is just for fun

RIV at 95 would absolutely blow my mind and get me off the sideline with my thinking there. Is your thinking rooted in the idea of a recession or just a glut of new points for sale with the Poly Tower, CFW, RIV, etc?

 

[Instagramhusband]

I watched a clip today talking about Disney’s earnings. One of the points they made is that companies, like Disney, will need to start to roll back some of the price increases they made post pandemic as consumers start to feel more frugal and make substitutions.

They specifically called out Grand Flo, Poly, and the Contemporary and said people are choosing to go on cruises instead.

I think a lot of people purchased DVC resale as a way to push back on the cash prices…. but in reality there are only so many people who can afford these contracts and the dues.

If there is a roll back in hotel pricing…. THAT would impact the DVC resale pricing… particularly at the popular SAPs at WDW.

Great points all around. The DVC buyer is the most loyal of the Disney customers plus construction costs have gone up so much that

I still calculate some value if I run the numbers the same way I do all the other resorts.

The problem is once I start using dues increase assumptions that are similar to what we’ve seen, renting becomes cheaper than owning in just a few years.

I agree with this overall, but Disney has been doing that with the hotels with very aggressive (35%) offers.

I think the fundamental problem is that the park ticket prices are too high.

But also I think some of this is cyclical from Covid (everyone did the US vacation first to test the waters, now they’re traveling international including cruises), and will settle back in by late next year, especially when Epic Universe opens and brings a swarm of people to Orlando.

Disney needs to get back to core business because in many ways Universal has run circles around them since the pandemic.

 

[dontae]

Yep, resale is already a good enough deal that I’d never buy direct, imagine when they keep raising the direct price and resale falls even more, now the value of direct isn’t even worth what it was because resale value isn’t there. They are slowly devaluing their product instead of adding value which is what made DVC so much better than a regular timeshare in the first place.

Exactly..... You are making the point I've tried to make. Disney seems to shoot themselves in the foot with some of their management decisions. I'm speaking specifically about the many restrictions. The one that is the most slap in the face is the use of Lounges. The signs will say it is for DVC members, but it is really not for DVC members. If you are a resale DVC member you are not welcome in their club.

Many of there other restrictions don't make sense as well. There is going to be a resale market one way or the other. I'd expect that if you went to one of their sales pitches for purchase of a direct contract, but asked.... what if family circumstances change in the future and I no longer can keep the membership, what options do I have to sell my contract (deed)? I'm sure they will advise you about the resale market. What I'd suspect that they won't tell you is that the resale market will be seriously discounted, so you will only recover a fraction of your original investment. Some reduction should be expected because of the declining number of years left on the deed. However, the more serious discount is due to the Disney restrictions. Seems Disney might do better to ease up on some of the restrictions, which might make the values of resale go up and reduce the discount margin between direct and resale. Especially the one that is offensive. i.e. being a DVC member, but not a special class DVC member that has access to the DVC club (lounges).

But as it is now, I'm like you. Buying direct makes no sense for me because of the steep discount you can get in the resale market.

 

[TheDailyMoo]

RIV at 95 would absolutely blow my mind and get me off the sideline with my thinking there. Is your thinking rooted in the idea of a recession or just a glut of new points for sale with the Poly Tower, CFW, RIV, etc?

Everything. Perfect storm type situation. And again my predictions and thinking are for those one-offs and anomaly sales so not saying these would be average prices. Although I do think we see the lowest average prices in the next 6 months that we've seen in a while.

 

[Instagramhusband]

Everything. Perfect storm type situation. And again my predictions and thinking are for those one-offs and anomaly sales so not saying these would be average prices. Although I do think we see the lowest average prices in the next 6 months that we've seen in a while.

I see, the next 4-6 months could bring that perfect storm if there every was one.

 

[atthebeachclub]

I still calculate some value if I run the numbers the same way I do all the other resorts.

The problem is once I start using dues increase assumptions that are similar to what we’ve seen, renting becomes cheaper than owning in just a few years.

I agree with this overall, but Disney has been doing that with the hotels with very aggressive (35%) offers.

I think the fundamental problem is that the park ticket prices are too high.

But also I think some of this is cyclical from Covid (everyone did the US vacation first to test the waters, now they’re traveling international including cruises), and will settle back in by late next year, especially when Epic Universe opens and brings a swarm of people to Orlando.

I think park tickets are too high AND (this may be upsetting to some) annual passes are too cheap. I don’t mean just Florida resident passes: all passes. A bigger differential is needed.

 

[atthebeachclub]

Ok… I like it. Just one-offs.

I’m going with VDH @ $115pp.

I can see it. I saw one $20 off that not long ago, which seemed shocking. But the taxes and dues are real issues.

 

[Instagramhusband]

I think park tickets are too high AND (this may be upsetting to some) annual passes are too cheap. I don’t mean just Florida resident passes: all passes. A bigger differential is needed.

Well agree to disagree. The Florida passes depending on which ones, have enough blackout dates that is definitely a win for them but don't discount its a political tool for them there.

I am not a Floridian, I think that one reason Disney thinks its the sweet spot(deferential) is they require payment in full of the out of state pass, unlike Universal which runs about half the cost and does do monthly payments. I think Disney is losing a certain element of fan. Maybe its by design but long term its not a winning strategy IMO.

 

[Chili327]

But as it is now, I'm like you. Buying direct makes no sense for me because of the steep discount you can get in the resale market.

Definitely, and the cheaper resale gets the less appealing direct is. If the perks aren't worth $50/pp they certainly aren't worth $100/pp. lol

Well agree to disagree. The Florida passes depending on which ones, have enough blackout dates that is definitely a win for them but don't discount its a political tool for them there.

I think blackout dates do have a huge effect... Especially at WDW (maybe not so much at DLR), since WDW is usually a whole week or more, you will most likely be affected by blackout dates, where I guess that just forces you to take a resort day, or spend the day(s) at Universal? lol

I am not a Floridian, I think that one reason Disney thinks its the sweet spot(deferential) is they require payment in full of the out of state pass, unlike Universal which runs about half the cost and does do monthly payments. I think Disney is losing a certain element of fan. Maybe its by design but long term its not a winning strategy IMO.

Funny thing about AP's are that is has me trying to do 2 trips within a year, so like once during holidays, then another in late winter/early spring, so the AP has huge value, but then only do that every other year, so instead of going "every year", its still every other year (UY), but twice within the life of the pass.