DVC thoughts and ? new info?

[Dean]

In HH and sat down to talk to one of the guides. He told me they have their quarter meeting coming up and it is his expectation that DVC will announce a new resort soon, ? Bonnet Creek. He also hinted that BC and the ?new resort are likely to have a new ending date of around 50 years with them ending the same year. If he's right, I lose a Pizza, but it would be the best price I ever paid for a Pizza. LOL.

This guy had been with the company a while and previously had a background in timeshares. Of course just rumors but interesting ones. I appreciated his straightforward nature and honesty and would take his info as what it's worth, just speculation at this point.

 

[drusba]

Thanks for the info. Of course we don't know whether he really knows. However, making BCV and any other new resort with a different end date could easily justify separating BCV sales from VB and HH sales and thus have a different and higher price for BCV and could also justify charging higher points per night than BWV (I believe Disney would like to do both of those things with BCV).

 

[wdwnut]

thanks Dean and Drusba for the insights. does make sense. we'll just have to wait and see.

 

[PamOKW]

I'm just speculating too....but I've had this in the back of my mind for awhile and the pieces seem to be falling together.

VWL is expected to sell-out soon. Reports from Vero and HHI also indicate they are approaching sell-out within a year.

BCV has been anounced as a possible DVC resort but no timetable for sales have been set.

Other DVC's are rumored but nothing announced. So far, we have a hotel based DVC and two different golf course DVC's rumored. There was also word about a DVC in the Naples, FL area.

Indications have been that BCV will be priced substantially higher.

Seems like it could be the beginning of DVC II. If that's the case, I don't think a $100/point would be out of the question.

Just my guesses....

 

[kem330]

Pam - no offense, but I hope you are wrong about the price at BCV, we would have enough trouble with $85/point, $100 would be a big stretch!. This info also brings up another question- if and how will DVC 1 and 2 interchange? I'm guessing you can not do an add on at BCV if it is DVCII, because contracts would have different expiration years. That might mean a minimum 150 point buy in on a separate contract. Also I imagine DVCII owners will be able to exchange into DVC I, but will the points be so high for II making it difficult for DVC I members to exchange into II ? Just food for thought, it will be interesting to see how it all plays out. Any crystal balls out there?

 

[PamOKW]

I hope I'm wrong on the new price, too. (Hey, maybe it'll go down!!) $100/pt would be pretty steep....$85 is bad enough....heck, $75 is pretty tough.

 

[Joeblack]

I think the rumours about Bonnet Creek are true. I really believe the next DVC resort will be a Golf Course one.

As for DVCII and 100/pt, both ideas make no sense to me. Why make a DVCII? One of the greatest incentives for customers is to be able to exchange among DVC resorts and to feel like they belong to a "club".

If a different schedule and higher prices are to come, I don't see what the incentive of people will be to buy there.....or to even bother exchanging into BCV (There is practically no difference with BWV). Maybe the expiration date in 2050 instead of 2042 could be an incentive, although I seriously doubt that any person with enough purchasing power (over 30 years old) to buy into DVC today will be very concerned about that..I know I won't care much expiration when I am 74.....or 82....... Additionally, Creating a "New CLub" only a year after the last resort might leave WLV owners with a bad taste in their mouth.


I am loking forward to buying an add-on in BCV but if price/pt is higher than $82 or if points per night are higher. I most likely won't.

Pam: I'll bet you DVC will remain the same throughout BCV.

 

[jimh13432]

maybe......just maybe..............they'll offer a roll over of DVC I into DVC II ?

 

[RobDoc]

Bonnet Creek has certainly been a consistant rumor among DVC CM's in the last year.

One method of exchange between DVCI and DVCII could be to allow intra-club reservations 6 (or 5 or 4) months ahead of time. This would allow owners 11 months, other members 7 months and outside members 6 months advance reservation priority.

This type of schedule does work in other timeshare programs.

Stay Tuned!

 

[SleepyatDVC]

A whole lot of people are waiting to buy or add-on at BCV. (myself included) If the price per point is drastically higher and/or the points per stay are higher, there will still be some people willing to pay for it. Many people want to buy directly from Disney and not resale and BCV will probably be the only on-site property available through Disney since VWL will be sold out by then. However, there will be lots that will look towards resales even with a possible 10 year less life span.

My prediction is that after a period of lower resale prices, BWV resale prices will soar higher. Most people waiting for BCV love the location and if they find out that it will cost much more to buy ($ per pt.) and stay (pts per stay) there while a much 'cheaper' BWV is just across the lagoon, there will be a sharp demand for BWV resales.

Right now the resale listing prices seem pretty inflated. But I doubt people are actually getting their asking prices right now. There's a lot of listings available right now (high supply). Add to that the many Disney resort/homeawayfromhome discounts available and the weaker economy - those resale prices are going to fall.

However, once the prices and details of BCV are better known - end of next year? - all those people itching to buy and add-on points may decide buying directly from Disney may come at too high a premium and will be flocking to BWV resales and those prices will be going up!

As always, the 11 month window will be ever more important at BWV.

But who knows, Disney may once again lower the minimum point buy in and with Disney low financing and a manageable monthly payment, many people may still feel that's the way to go.

 

[Dumbo]

How about this little twist. Make Beach Club Villas fixed weeks. It sure would cut done on Member Services staff. "Hello, do you have any availablility for ............"

Dumbo

 

[PamOKW]

Hi Joe. I'm shooting in the dark here, too. Why a DVC II? Well, if they raised the price to anywhere near $100/point I would have a hard time justifying making the same purchase I made in 1993 at roughly a 100% increase to get nearly 10 years less use. If it was a fresh 50 year start it would just seem to be a better value. Although I probably won't be the one using it in any case!

 

[Joeblack]

Hi Pam:

What you say is a possibility. However, $100/point is just a rumour. It is my guess that points will cost no higher than $85/pt and the point schedule will be the same as the BWV's or WLV's. BCV will not be opening until March next year (correct me if I'm mistaken). That is only 8 months away. I seriously doubt that with the ongoing recession DVC will offer BCV at a price about 40% higher than the existing WLV or the BCV or OKW which are available through resale.

My bet is still on ;-)

 

[dianeschlicht]

I hope the DVCII idea doesn't preclude those of us who are members of DVC from taking advantage of those facilities. We always stay at our home resort (OKW) because it is better value than the others, but I would definately be interested in the Bonnet Creek area if it was an OKW style resort. I would hate to have to buy another contract just to stay there though.

 

[Dean]

I don't think there really needs to be a DVC I and II. All they need to do is just run things like they are and then certain resorts will drop out when the time comes. It makes no sense to add to the beauracracy and make things more complicated. I would suspect that add ons will be allowed but might be a higher minimum but less than 150 for resorts that end say in 2052.

 

[DLVisitor]

IMHO: I'm sure that DIsney will do in the future what they did when they created DVC...complete a thorough research into what and how they should handle 2042. I understane that 2042 was chosen because that was considered the "life span" of a t/s. They have many options, and loaded with statistics and info from many sources, will come up with something great (albeit it will probably be alot more expensive than it is currently) I bet they are reading our boards for ideas too I do like the idea some on the board have mentioned of some type of "rollover" option for current members.

 

[PamOKW]

Dean, are you saying that there wouldn't be a seperate entity but that the end dates would be different? That makes sense but I'm not sure if it's legally possible.

DLVisitor -- Of course you make the most sense. We are purely guessing here. The folks in DVC Management don't just guess....they research and research and research again before making a move.

Joe -- I'm wondering if they are delaying new DVC's until the economy does pick up. They may very well be going ahead with construction without "announcing" anything so that they can better time the market and get the best price.

 

[Joeblack]

I agree with Dean. Pam: I don't know if I read the wrong info but DVC is not delaying BCV but rather trying to open it before September 2001. I think I read March 2001.

Now, if DVC reads this boards, and I am sure they do, let's not give them such bad ideas as DVCII or outrageous prices/point like $100.

I still have not received my copy of VM, but I have read in the boards that they announce BCV as "A DVC resort", just as they did with WLV. The time is getting close and I believe id Disney had intentions of a new DVC idea, they should, and would have announced it by now.

 

[Lesley]

Very interesting thread...

I do take issue with the statement Joeblack made about those who have the buying power to join DVC being over 30....I think it has been determined here already that there are many DVC members who are in their 20's. I'm not far from 30 myself, but I am concerned about the 2042 end date and will definintely be interested in a DVC contract (be it DVC II or whatever) that goes well beyond that date, though we've admittedly reached our limit for the time being. I'll only be 69 in Jan of 2042 and I can see myself wanting to use DVC beyond that age....plus my kids will only be in their 40's and it would be sad to see my (future, I hope) grandkids lose the chance to visit WDW through DVC when they still might be quite young.

In the next few years (making a very hopeful assumption that the economy won't get even worse for a prolonged time) there will just be more and more potential DVCer's who will be looking at 2042 as a date that is not that far in the future..ie. they will be at an age where they will want more than ever to be able to use DVC.

But I'm straying off into slightly ot territory.... no predictions here, but I am eager to know what will happen next! Any word on when we might hear something?

 

[PamOKW]

Joe, I know they are going ahead and even pushing construction and sales of BCV. I was referring to the future beyond that. We haven't heard anything. VWL, if it stays on track, will be sold out in under a year. BCV will probably sell out at about the same rate. I'm just guessing that they are holding off the next resort for another year or two to see if the economy comes back.

In the VM the wording is "The resort will become a part of the Disney Vacation Club subject to obtaining all necessary apprpovals."