DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[KAT4DISNEY]

When they first introduced the 7 season point chart, what was the explanation given for why it was done and how it would benefit the membership?

Because someone gave them 2 more darts to add to the 5 they had?

 

[zavandor]

Thank you for the huge effort to do all those calculations, really appreciated.

I have a question regarding the Base UY (BUY): can it change?
The Base UY is not explicitly referenced in the POS, so we have never known which one it was. Due to the calculations, we just knew it was any year with the highest amount of week ends. With the new point charts, as @i<3riviera has calculated, only a year with an early Easter and that starts with a Friday would fit the bill.
But if the point charts change in the future, can they decide the BUY is a different one?
For example, they could reallocate to make March an higher point season and then switch to a BUY with a late Easter, so that any upcoming year with an Easter in March would cause point inflation. Can they do that?

Second question: Is a 2036 or 2046 BUY compatible with the old point charts? If it's not, then they have changed it this year. If it is, then the can say the BUY has always been 2036 or 2046, they just didn't tell us. My understanding is that it's still compatible, am I right?

DVC Management Company (DVCMC) has a fiduciary duty to make the interests of the membership. Increasing the lockoff premium had really no excuse, it was just a money grab. But in this case, the point inflation has been caused by the creation of an additional season because, they say, March and April needed a rebalancing of demand.
Is it true March and April need separate seasons? We do not have any occupancy data, only DVC has, so we cannot answer that question.
Let's assume it does, is the rebalancing more important for members than few extra points inflation in other UYs? Unfortunately as members we have delegated the DVCMC to take that decision for us.
We have good grounds for complaints only if we can demonstrate that the decision to reallocate and pick a specific BUY is taken just because so they can have inflated points. While I strongly suspect this is what happened, would my suspect stand in court?
But, if in the future they reallocate again to take advantage of a different period for Easter, requirying to change the BUY again, then there would be a stronger argument against the DVCMC decisions.

 

[drusba]

^Just providing a response to your Q as to whether March and April need separate seasons at WDW. Based on my tracking reservations over the years, the last week of April has for a long time been the third lowest DVC demand time of the year -- the first and second lowest have actually been Feb 1 to the Thurs before Presidents Day, and July 7 to July 31. Fourth lowest was actually the Monday in Feb after Princess race weekend through first week of March. Second week of March until last week of April has been more in line with other times than those noted above from mid-Jan to late Sep, with the Easter weeks somewhat higher, none of which has come near the demand level that occurs from late Sep to marathon weekend in Jan.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you for the huge effort to do all those calculations, really appreciated.

I have a question regarding the Base UY (BUY): can it change?
The Base UY is not explicitly referenced in the POS, so we have never known which one it was. Due to the calculations, we just knew it was any year with the highest amount of week ends. With the new point charts, as @i<3riviera has calculated, only a year with an early Easter and that starts with a Friday would fit the bill.
But if the point charts change in the future, can they decide the BUY is a different one?
For example, they could reallocate to make March an higher point season and then switch to a BUY with a late Easter, so that any upcoming year with an Easter in March would cause point inflation. Can they do that?

Second question: Is a 2036 or 2046 BUY compatible with the old point charts? If it's not, then they have changed it this year. If it is, then the can say the BUY has always been 2036 or 2046, they just didn't tell us. My understanding is that it's still compatible, am I right?

DVC Management Company (DVCMC) has a fiduciary duty to make the interests of the membership. Increasing the lockoff premium had really no excuse, it was just a money grab. But in this case, the point inflation has been caused by the creation of an additional season because, they say, March and April needed a rebalancing of demand.
Is it true March and April need separate seasons? We do not have any occupancy data, only DVC has, so we cannot answer that question.
Let's assume it does, is the rebalancing more important for members than few extra points inflation in other UYs? Unfortunately as members we have delegated the DVCMC to take that decision for us.
We have good grounds for complaints only if we can demonstrate that the decision to reallocate and pick a specific BUY is taken just because so they can have inflated points. While I strongly suspect this is what happened, would my suspect stand in court?
But, if in the future they reallocate again to take advantage of a different period for Easter, requirying to change the BUY again, then there would be a stronger argument against the DVCMC decisions.

That is one of my questions to in terms of base year, It is specifically defined as one with minimum Friday and Saturday in high demand time, Since, over the years, that time has changed, so does that language allow them to adjust it if they can show high demand time is a different part of the year?

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[dismedvc]

2021 point charts

• what day of the week did base year start on (1 Jan)? varies by resort
• did you adjust US Thanksgiving to be Wed to Fri? no
• what day was Easter Sunday? 4 Apr

For BWV and BLT (the two resorts we own), 2021 Points are higher (second highest season) for Nov 24-26 (Wed to Fri)
Why do you think the answer to point 2 above will be no?

Note: your analysis is great, and I understand all the other expected answers, but this one confuses me. TIA for any clarification.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[zavandor]

it seems like keeping a consistent base year would make sense but they definitely haven't; I'm not sure they are required to; for SSR base year started on ...

• 2008-2016 Sun or Thu (not sure which, both have same totals closest to declared points)
• 2017-2020 Wed
• 2021 Tue
• 2022 Mon
• View attachment 548154

Oh wait, it means they are actually changing the BUY in order to find the option that gives them the most excess points for each point chart! And they might continue to do so in the future.

 

[dismedvc]

has the three prime days for US Thanksgiving on 24-26 Nov (Fri-Sun for a year starting on a Sun)

Thanks for the clarification. If I understand what you are saying correctly, if adjusted correctly, the three prime days for Thanksgiving should be replacing a lower point Wednesday and Thursday plus a higher point Friday. However, by choosing a base year that starts on Sunday, and not adjusting Thanksgiving, the base year for 2021 actually has the three prime days for Thanksgiving replacing a higher point Friday and Saturday plus a lower point Sunday. Is that correct, and if so would the failure to adjust Thanksgiving in the 2021 base year be a small benefit or detriment to members in 2021?

 

[Sandisw]

Oh wait, it means they are actually changing the BUY in order to find the option that gives them the most excess points for each point chart! And they might continue to do so in the future.

This is how I am reading it, However, I am also reading it that when a base year is chosen that is accurate to number of points declared...even if different..the chart for 2022 is now balanced,

With dates changing in the fall to being more high demand times, it makes sense to me at least, they may have had to adjust base year. As long as total points in any base year chosen matches declared, isn’t that what it is supposed to be?

 

[Roughians_satchel]

I did notice with PVB that those rooms are actually defined in the POS..how many are LV and SV.

Not all are done that way. RIV and BLT do not have them broken down, for example, so I think with those resorts you have play on which rooms are what..even though as mentioned those types of changes have always been disclosed.

PVB would be a change from POS so I don’t think they could do that without a notification for sure.

Are they REQUIRED to make a notification or is it just something they've always done before? I know people have complained about the LV on the first floor being blocked by the bungalows. Maybe they converted some of those to SV? As long as it's not required - they might not bother to tell people. I mean, I wouldn't put it past Terri

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Sandisw]

Are they REQUIRED to make a notification or is it just something they've always done before? I know people have complained about the LV on the first floor being blocked by the bungalows. Maybe they converted some of those to SV? As long as it's not required - they might not bother to tell people. I mean, I wouldn't put it past Terri

I think that with PVB, and it being listed how many are LV vs SV, that a change in classification would be a change to the POS, and therefore notification would be required.

At resorts where it is not, like BLT, it may not be, but they did and they did when they made new categories at SSR. So, I think anything done at PVB would have been shared,

 

[Sandisw]

I sent my email this morning asking for a call back once I return from Disney.
Here are the questions I posed:

Can the base year used change during the life of the contract?

Do the points that are declared have to match whatever base year is used? Are DVD owned points which are not sold considered declared?

What are the total points used in the base year chart for BLT, RIV. and SSR? Where do I find them if you can’t tell me?

Did the exceptions made to deal with the closure in 2020 play any role in choosing the base year for 2022?

I’ll keep all posted once I get any answers.

ETA. Depending on The answers, it will lead to other questions so will post that as well.

 

[dsnymnkyuncle]

After retirement I don't follow numbers like I used to.. Thank you to everyone filling out the discussion. It helps.

 

[SL6827]

This is all in Disney's interest. No rocket science needed there.

 

[zavandor]

A different thought: DVCMC has demonstrated they believe the Base UY is not fixed, but it can be changed.
So why not use for every point chart the current UY as the Base Year? This way it would be ensured thatevery year the total number of points required by the charts to book the resort match exactly the number of points sold. It would require to adjust the point charts every year, but unless they want to rebalnce the seasons, I would expect just a point adjustment here and there to account for week ends.
This is the best option in the interest of the members.
Any other solution creates exess points that only advantages Disney who can poket the extra revenues from rental.

I have written to DVC asking for clarifications.

 

[Sandisw]

A different thought: DVCMC has demonstrated they believe the Base UY is not fixed, but it can be changed.
So why not use for every point chart the current UY as the Base Year? This way it would be ensured thatevery year the total number of points required by the charts to book the resort match exactly the number of points sold. It would require to adjust the point charts every year, but unless they want to rebalnce the seasons, I would expect just a point adjustment here and there to account for week ends.
This is the best option in the interest of the members.
Any other solution creates exess points that only advantages Disney who can poket the extra revenues from rental.

I have written to DVC asking for clarifications.

Only potential issue could be the 20% limit each Use day and in some cases, a weekday change to a weekend from one calendar year to the next is indeed more than that 20% for some rooms.

Also, having leap year with the extra day might impact that 20%? Just thinking out loud as to whether that requirement could still work?

 

[zavandor]

Only potential issue could be the 20% limit each Use day and in some cases, a weekday change to a weekend from one calendar year to the next is indeed more than that 20% for some rooms.

Also, having leap year with the extra day might impact that 20%? Just thinking out loud as to whether that requirement could still work?

If the point charts for 2022 is balanced using 2022 as the BUY, then balancing 2023 using 2023 as the BUY should be easy and shouldn't require more than a point added or removed here and there.
Holidays are exempt from the 20% rule, so the days around Easter and Thanksgiving can be moved freely, no issue.

Regarding the leap year, I think 2/29 is simply ignored when calculating the point charts.

 

[Sandisw]

If the point charts for 2022 is balanced using 2022 as the BUY, then balancing 2023 using 2023 as the BUY should be easy and shouldn't require more than a point added or removed here and there.
Holidays are exempt from the 20% rule, so the days around Easter and Thanksgiving can be moved freely, no issue.

Regarding the leap year, I think 2/29 is simply ignored when calculating the point charts.

Let me just make sure I am understanding this. For example, if March 10th is a Thursday in 2022 and a room is 43 points on that day, and in 2023 that day is a Friday, that day would now have to go to 53 as that is the cost for weekends..this is a RIV 1 bedroom.

Isn’t that more than a 20% change for that day? Or does it not have to be that micro?

Not sure what you mean by ignoring 2/29. Just want to be sure I get your thinking because it does coordinate with my questions to them about the changing of base year.