DVC point balancing 2022 vs 2021

[KAT4DISNEY]

2-- You're final point is right on. The original 2020 point chart was likely "legal" but it caused too much of an uproar. So they are likely trying to implement that original 2020 point chart... step by step. Instead of 1.3% increase all at once, go 0.2%-0.5% per year for a few years and gradually get to that point.

I did not read that as their point. The point is that DVC may have found out they can "get away with" - ie, illegally ignoring the POS - by doing the increase in smaller increments. They plan to get where they were headed with 2020 points but are hoping it's subtle enough to not be caught by "the 24 people who complained about 2020". So by 2024 they'll have the charts they wanted in 2020 and all that extra income from breakage.

 

[havoc315]

I did not read that as their point. The point is that DVC may have found out they can "get away with" - ie, illegally ignoring the POS - by doing the increase in smaller increments. They plan to get where they were headed with 2020 points but are hoping it's subtle enough to not be caught by "the 24 people who complained about 2020". So by 2024 they'll have the charts they wanted in 2020 and all that extra income from breakage.

That’s basically what I said — except I maintain it’s likely perfectly legal. Honestly, trying to “sneak it past members” would potentially cost them huge $$$$ if it was illegal.

It would take only 1 owner to notice It’s illegal... and that 1 owner to bring it to an attorney who specializes in class action lawsuits.
That 1 owner and 1 law firm would then certify a class — they would ask the court for permission to represent ALL owners affected by the illegal point increase. (They would have to send notices to all owners, etc).

Assuming there are around 500,000 DVC owners... at least 300,000 WDW DVC owners.. If those 300,000 WDW DVC owners are then found to have been damaged in even a fairly small amount. Say, the “illegal” point increase diluted ownership on average by $250 per owner...

Disney wound suddenly be on the hook for $75 million plus attorneys fees, which are often astronomical in class action cases. But really... the dilution of value may be more than $250 per owner. May really add up to $500-$1,000....$150 million to $300 million.

Point is — it would be very easy for them to get caught. They don’t need to get caught by loads of owners.If they get caught by just 1 owner who finds the right lawyer, it would cost DVC hundreds of millions of dollars. Plus the damage to the reputation would hurt DVC sales for years.

So either Disney is EXTREMELY stupid to take such a risk, or they are highly confident that the moves are perfectly legal under the contracts.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Minniemoo15]

if anyone wants to catch-up, my suggested (admittedly biased) reading ...

detailed explanation of why 2022 point charts are out of whack​

proposed solution (5 season point chart) and why the gregorian easten DVCM picked is ludicrous​

DVCM not being transparent, logical, or neutral​

my view on this not being an altruistic way to consume points​

legal, illegal, I don't have a claim to that; I also don't advocate for threatening or pursuing legal action for several reasons but chiefly that whether you like it or not, we are contractual partners with DVCM and its in our best interests to work with them to resolve issues amicably first

if you share my perspective that the 2022 point charts are underhanded or at best a disappointing gray area that just so happens to inflate points then I would recommend you reach out to DVCM and voice your concerns; some tips ...

• be clear an concise about your concerns
  • 2022 point charts while complying with base year analysis inflate actual 2022 points by ~0.5% relative to declared points (remember the 2020 initial charts inflation was ~1.3%)
  • the 2022 base year analysis was done in a way to maximize points in 2022 when there was a very clear neutral alternative
  • the inflation of points is unlikely in DVC owner's best interests (there is an argument best interest must guide DVCM's actions)
  • you recognize DVCM followed the base year requirement in the POS but question that they are acting in your best interests
• be specific about what you want DVCM to do
  • revert back to a five season point chart by merging season e with season f and season a with season b; keep the summer / fall swap as it's necessary; this is a very minor change to the point chart moving only 26 days
  • stay with the five season point chart that can't as easily be manipulated in the same way as the seven season point chart
  • provide a commitment to get this chart out by mid-Jan so DVC owners can review it before it needs to be in place (1 Feb 2021)
  • or some alternative you think of
• be courteous as you may or may not be communicating with the person that made this poor decision
• avoid getting angry, don't bring up past misdeeds (initial 2020 point chart, resale restrictions), and don't get personal as these lessen the ability to get to an amicable solution
• let us know how your email / discussion went!

if you're concerned about the 2022 point charts but don't want to trust your internet friend's analysis, reach out to DVCM and discuss with them; I've read of two folks that did prior (@sethschroeder and @Minniemoo15; thanks you two!) but DVCM was rather obtuse with both of them; so ask specific detailed questions from the info laid out for you

if you aren't concerned about the 2022 point charts or think they are in our best interests by consuming points, that's cool too; I don't agree with you but we can still be friends

Thank you again @i<3riviera for the incredible analysis and clear, concise way we can voice our concerns. I plan on writing a followup email to those who I spoke with on the phone and will be sure to include this information.
I wonder if we should start a new thread to reach a wider audience and post any response we get?

 

[Lorana]

if anyone wants to catch-up, my suggested (admittedly biased) reading ...

detailed explanation of why 2022 point charts are out of whack​

proposed solution (5 season point chart) and why the gregorian easten DVCM picked is ludicrous​

DVCM not being transparent, logical, or neutral​

my view on this not being an altruistic way to consume points​

legal, illegal, I don't have a claim to that; I also don't advocate for threatening or pursuing legal action for several reasons but chiefly that whether you like it or not, we are contractual partners with DVCM and its in our best interests to work with them to resolve issues amicably first

if you share my perspective that the 2022 point charts are underhanded or at best a disappointing gray area that just so happens to inflate points then I would recommend you reach out to DVCM and voice your concerns; some tips ...

• be clear an concise about your concerns
  • 2022 point charts while complying with base year analysis inflate actual 2022 points by ~0.5% relative to declared points (remember the 2020 initial charts inflation was ~1.3%)
  • the 2022 base year analysis was done in a way to maximize points in 2022 when there was a very clear neutral alternative
  • the inflation of points is unlikely in DVC owner's best interests (there is an argument best interest must guide DVCM's actions)
  • you recognize DVCM followed the base year requirement in the POS but question that they are acting in your best interests
• be specific about what you want DVCM to do
  • revert back to a five season point chart by merging season e with season f and season a with season b; keep the summer / fall swap as it's necessary; this is a very minor change to the point chart moving only 26 days
  • stay with the five season point chart that can't as easily be manipulated in the same way as the seven season point chart
  • provide a commitment to get this chart out by mid-Jan so DVC owners can review it before it needs to be in place (1 Feb 2021)
  • or some alternative you think of
• be courteous as you may or may not be communicating with the person that made this poor decision
• avoid getting angry, don't bring up past misdeeds (initial 2020 point chart, resale restrictions), and don't get personal as these lessen the ability to get to an amicable solution
• let us know how your email / discussion went!

if you're concerned about the 2022 point charts but don't want to trust your internet friend's analysis, reach out to DVCM and discuss with them; I've read of two folks that did prior (@sethschroeder and @Minniemoo15; thanks you two!) but DVCM was rather obtuse with both of them; so ask specific detailed questions from the info laid out for you

if you aren't concerned about the 2022 point charts or think they are in our best interests by consuming points, that's cool too; I don't agree with you but we can still be friends

Thank you!! This will really help me in writing my email to them.

Thank you again @i<3riviera for the incredible analysis and clear, concise way we can voice our concerns. I plan on writing a followup email to those who I spoke with on the phone and will be sure to include this information.
I wonder if we should start a new thread to reach a wider audience and post any response we get?

I think this is an excellent idea!

 

[EYL]

I wonder if we should start a new thread to reach a wider audience and post any response we get?

So this brings up a question on the proper course of action... Clearly, the last time they decided to fudge the points, they were called out on it but we were told that "only 24 [or whatever low amount] people complained", which we all think was fluff. Should someone start an online petition (or something similar), or a new short thread where I can put my name onto it as support? (would a "vote" in a thread work?) This way, there will be documentation of "more than 24 people" complaining.

It is clear, after reading the posts, that I am not eloquent enough in the POS or the numbers to start something like this, or to even send an effective email to Disney (though I am drafting one based on i<3riviera's post above). I suspect that there are many stuck between a rock and a hard place like me. But I will certainly stand and support any efforts to call DVC out and will spread the word. Big companies and organizations react to Unions, and I think it would benefit to show DVC that there is one.

From my circle of friends who are DVC members, they didn't even realize that the last time DVC revised the point charts was because of the efforts of some on this board. They didn't even know it was an issue. I can do my part by making sure that word gets out to them, and them to their friends. After all, if we sit and take it now, it just emboldens them to push more in the future.

 

[Sandisw]

Thank you again @i<3riviera for the incredible analysis and clear, concise way we can voice our concerns. I plan on writing a followup email to those who I spoke with on the phone and will be sure to include this information.
I wonder if we should start a new thread to reach a wider audience and post any response we get?

I am going to suggest that discussions regarding the points charts stay here, People can share their own thoughts and contact DVCM with questions,

There is no need to start a new thread that could turn into something not allowed on the DIS. So, let’s keep it confined here please,

(Chose to remove my own content)

 

[dismedvc]

gregorian easter falls on the 1st of five possible Sun (in 2022 g.e. falls on 4th of five); this creates points out of nowhere.
2022 gregorian easter was chosen to be the first possible Sun in base year analysis
the negatively affects the point chart by artificially adding lower point cost days from period e in place of period f (see red in chart below)

Looking at the 2022 point chart, if Easter week was not put into category g, it would always be in category f, regardless of which of the potential 5 Sundays it fell on. Therefore it seems to me that regardless of which of the 5 potential Sundays Easter falls on, the impact is the same (i.e. one week is moved from category f to category g), so I do not see how choosing a base year where Easter falls on the first possible Sunday creates "points out of nowhere". What am I missing?

ETA: The 7 day category e does look suspicious, and your detailed analysis shows that somehow .5% more points were created for 2022, but I am not following how that is related to choosing a base year where Easter is the first possible Sunday.

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Minniemoo15]

here's another visualization on how the deviation from points needed for a full year using the point chart applied to the actual calendar varied over the years; this isn't base year but 2020's point chart against 2020's calendar for example; <0.05% was the norm, 2022 is ~0.4%, an order of magnitude higher

View attachment 547735

Δ resort points for actual year / declared points (average)

2008 Tue	2009 Thu	2010 Fri	2011 Sat	2012 Sun	2013 Tue	2014 Wed	2015 Thu	2016 Fri	2017 Sun	2018 Mon	2019 Tue	2020 Wed	2021 Fri	2022 Sat
0.06%	-0.04%	0.19%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	0.00%	0.00%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.07%	0.41%

notes ...

• leap years are multiplied leap years by 365 / 366 to account for the extra day in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020 but made no other modifications
• several very helpful DISboarders pointed out the 2008 and prior charts were essentially the same so would fluctuate around 0.0% delta
• OKW, BLT, and AKV were excluded because I don't have the right room counts to do the analysis so they looked weird (but still had the large 2022 spike)
• 2010, 2016, and 2021 are high because they start on Fri (injecting more high cost weekend days in the year) and this is normal
• 2011 and 2022 (partially) have a similar effect starting on a Sat and this is normal (but the effect on 2022 from this is about 0.06% of the total 0.41% increase so not the driving factor)
• 2010 was also a transition year for the weekend / weekday weighting explaining the delta above 2016's Fri impact, less normal but 11 years ago so

which bring me back to my point that if DVCM can do such a good job keeping the point charts transparent, neutral, consistent, and predictable in the past, why now the increase that is an order of magnitude higher than the typical variation?

I still think DVCM should bring back the five season chart that can't be manipulated or fix the gregorian easter assumption (3rd of five instead of 1st of five)

If DVCM kept increasing the seasons (ie: went to 9 seasons), could they keep increasing the point charts ?

 

[i<3riviera]

͏

 

[Minniemoo15]

quite possibly; it seems the more complicated the point charts are, the more ways the point charts can be creatively interpreted to increase points while being confusing enough for it to be hard to notice

Thank you. That’s kind of scary. Maybe that’s what they meant when they told me legally there was no maximum number of points for the “points for use” charts.

 

[Sandisw]

here's another visualization on how the deviation from points needed for a full year using the point chart applied to the actual calendar varied over the years; this isn't base year but 2020's point chart against 2020's calendar for example; <0.05% was the norm, 2022 is ~0.4%, an order of magnitude higher

View attachment 547735

Δ resort points for actual year / declared points (average)

2008 Tue	2009 Thu	2010 Fri	2011 Sat	2012 Sun	2013 Tue	2014 Wed	2015 Thu	2016 Fri	2017 Sun	2018 Mon	2019 Tue	2020 Wed	2021 Fri	2022 Sat
0.06%​	-0.04%​	0.19%​	0.06%​	0.02%​	0.01%​	0.00%​	0.00%​	0.11%​	0.01%​	0.02%​	0.02%​	0.03%​	0.07%​	0.41%​

notes ...

• leap years are multiplied by 365 / 366 to account for the extra day in 2008, 2012, 2016, and 2020; no other modifications made
• several very helpful DISboarders pointed out the 2008 and prior charts were essentially the same so would fluctuate around 0.0% delta
• OKW, BLT, and AKV were excluded because I don't have the right room counts to do the analysis so they looked weird (but still had the large 2022 spike)
• 2010, 2016, and 2021 are high because they start on Fri (injecting more high cost weekend days in the year) and this is normal
• 2011 and 2022 (partially) have a similar effect starting on a Sat and this is normal (but the effect on 2022 from this is about 0.06% of the total 0.41% increase so not the driving factor)
• 2010 was also a transition year for the weekend / weekday weighting explaining the delta above 2016's Fri impact, less normal but 11 years ago so

which bring me back to my point that if DVCM can do such a good job keeping the point charts transparent, neutral, consistent, and predictable in the past, why now the increase that is an order of magnitude higher than the typical variation?

I still think DVCM should bring back the five season chart that can't be manipulated or fix the gregorian easter assumption (3rd of five instead of 1st of five)

Thanks again for some detailed analysis.

I still think this may have to do with what happened this year and it’s effect in the next 5 years, especially since prior to this chart things, as you mention, we’re predictable

 

[Minniemoo15]

Does anyone know .. does having my husband fill out the feedback form under his log in provide any benefit ? Or since I already wrote in under the same membership number it will be seen as a duplicate ?

My parents are DVC owners and don’t understand a lick of this ... but when I gave them an overview of what was happening and how much our PVB week has gone up they wrote an email too.

 

[EM Lawrence]

I’m behind in reading this, but as a Poly owner, I have been left with a very bad taste in my mouth. A 0.5% increase in the point charts seems very significant to me, and not in my best interest as an owner.

 

[drusba]

Looking at the 2022 point chart, if Easter week was not put into category g, it would always be in category f, regardless of which of the potential 5 Sundays it fell on. Therefore it seems to me that regardless of which of the 5 potential Sundays Easter falls on, the impact is the same (i.e. one week is moved from category f to category g), so I do not see how choosing a base year where Easter falls on the first possible Sunday creates "points out of nowhere". What am I missing?

ETA: The 7 day category e does look suspicious, and your detailed analysis shows that somehow .5% more points were created for 2022, but I am not following how that is related to choosing a base year where Easter is the first possible Sunday.

As noted above the 2021 and 2022 charts added the issue of having April days after Easter at in lower point seasons than before.

Also, the Easter highest point period has been changed significantly and thus now differs from whatever the original base year was. For all years before 2021, it was 14 nights -- the Sat, a week before Easter, until the Friday after Easter. Beginning with 2020, it has become only 8 nights -- the Sunday before Easter through Easter Sunday.

 

[dismedvc]

so specifically for 2022, the base year analysis DVCM did moved 23 days to a lower season in their base year chart that allowed them to make increases elsewhere and still keep base year points = declared points; when that chart gets applied to the actual year of 2022 with an easter of 17 Apr (not 25 Mar as picked by DVCM for base year), those 23 days go back to the higher season, hence the inflation

Thank you @i<3riviera. I now understand your analysis.
However, while you came to the conclusion, this "manipulation" is allowed/legal, although it is not in the best interests of the members, I would disagree about it being allowed/legal.
If the weeks before Easter are higher points, and the weeks after Easter are lower points, since the point charts are supposed to be point neutral from year to year, in years (which are all years except 2035) when Easter falls after March 25th resulting in more higher point days before Easter and less lower point days after Easter in the March/April time frame compared to the "base year", I feel the points per night need to be adjusted in periods e and f to keep the points neutral between years.

 

[EM Lawrence]

quite possibly; it seems the more complicated the point charts are, the more ways the point charts can be creatively interpreted to increase points while being confusing enough for it to be hard to notice

When they first introduced the 7 season point chart, what was the explanation given for why it was done and how it would benefit the membership?

 

[Sandisw]

When they first introduced the 7 season point chart, what was the explanation given for why it was done and how it would benefit the membership?

There was no specific explanation other than it was an adjustment based on the shifts in demands over the years.

Personally, I think they did it because they needed to separate out more specifically to match booking trends of DVC members,

Initially, it seems that charts were based and matched to WDW trends but over the years, we know have DVC trends which may no longer correspond with cash guests,

I think these changes were long overdue and I am happy to see summer now in a travel period that makes sense. IMO, the majority of the year should be consistent for booking at 7 months and I think the raising of Fall and lowering is summer, as well as having the 7 seasons may have accomplished it better than the 5 did.