Ok, talked to DH and this is what he says.....
The following figures are based on a WL resale listed at The Timeshare Store (210 pts./$82 per pt.)
$20,000 (Total cost of points w/ interest....guestimate)
$35,000 (Total cost of MF over 35 years)
$55,000
$55,000 divided by (don't know how to type that symbol) $2,000 (approx. cost to stay a week at the WL) = 27 1/2 years (our break-even point)
Does this make sense to you guys? I was just figuring the total cost of points w/ interest and a break-even of 10 years. The MF, I figured, were what we would pay annually for our vacations. I'm awful at this kind of stuff and don't trust my logic. How did you guys figure your break-even? Right now he's leaning towards NOT doing DVC as it's just prepaying for your vacations. He feels that we should just pay OOP every year. Of course, I don't feel the same as he does.
And to Chucks point, the cost for your DVC accommodations will generally remain the same over the life of your contract..., pts. per night 25-27 years from now should be the same as it is today, while OOP costs will be guaranteed to increase over the years.
Without getting into all the detailed peculiarities, in general Disney cannot increase the number of points required for a nights stay in the same way 'cash' prices will continuously increase over time due to inflation and so forth. I am generalizing a bit... there are some very specific rules that describe how Disney can play with and adjust the pts./night numbers, but what it boils down to is, if they increase the pts./night for a given date or room type at a DVC resort, they have to DECREASE the pts./night cost at the same resort for some other date or room type for the same UY. Think of the adage, “For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction”. Dig around the board some more to see how this aspect works.
However, annual Maintenance Fee will certainly continue to go up over the years as well, counteracting some of the savings gains.
Also, DVC ‘benefits’ are always subject to change, but currently you get a $100 discount off the price of Annual Passes and $125 off Premium Annual Passes. Consider that when estimating your OOP versus DVC costs. That's a $200 savings PER year per couple for AP's for as long as this offer continues.
I think one additional consideration..., are you comparing like accommodations? If you are comparing standard room accommodations at the main Lodge against the superior DVC accommodations, then you are comparing apples and oranges. I think your dollars are stretched further when you get more for your money such as when you get a nicer DVC room. For example, currently, 200 pts. gets a weeks stay in a 1BR DVC villa at VWL during the least expensive season. Using the average price per point to RENT at WL, about $11/pt. I believe, that comes out to $2200 total. When you say you're average stay at WL has been $2000, are you staying in a 1BR Suite? You could be, by using DVC points for nearly the same amount of money. And I would say even the Studio DVC rooms are still more valuable and would cost more than the standard studio rooms in the main lodge.
It IS a very long commitment you are making when purchasing DVC, so having reservations about it is understandable. Best of luck with whatever you choose.