DVC booking patterns affect on purchase

[Bambi19]

Yes but my point is that IF they build more DVC INSIDE WDW, does that NOT make the 'generic' 7 month points that much more valuuable for those who wish to 'sleep around' the WDW resorts as people try to 'sample' various DVC places?

Oh I see now what you mean- yes so the opening of Riviera and any future in WDW DVC could help quite a bit! Hopefully that will level it back out.

 

[Matty B13]

Hopefully, Riviera doesn't have something like the Cabins or Bungalows that are huge point hogs that only a few members have enough points to enjoy, and double up on studios. Our family is to big for studios but I'm sure there are a lot of members that would love to see more built.

 

[Pluto777]

Hopefully, Riviera doesn't have something like the Cabins or Bungalows that are huge point hogs that only a few members have enough points to enjoy, and double up on studios. Our family is to big for studios but I'm sure there are a lot of members that would love to see more built.

Good point, then again, if you WERE wealthy enough to be able to buy the HUGE point allotments necessary for POLY Bungalow nights, can someone explain to me WHY it would NOT be smarter from a financial perspective to imply buy the 'generic' month points at a cheaper place??? (Of course if you are wealthy enough to stay at POLY Bungalows on vacation, maybe you dont even care about costs!)

 

[Bing Showei]

Good point, then again, if you WERE wealthy enough to be able to buy the HUGE point allotments necessary for POLY Bungalow nights, can someone explain to me WHY it would NOT be smarter from a financial perspective to imply buy the 'generic' month points at a cheaper place??? (Of course if you are wealthy enough to stay at POLY Bungalows on vacation, maybe you dont even care about costs!)

It's probably less about "not caring about cost," but more about weighing what you risk by not paying for what you want up front, and whether that risk is worth the X dollars you would save buying SSR points instead.

I would guess that if you have enough points for the expressed purpose of staying in a Polynesian Bungalow, you are probably planning for a decent sized group and probably don't want to monkey around with not being able to get it at 7-months (as unlikely as that is presently). That's a lot of cash outlay to gamble that you don't end up in a treehouse instead of watching MK fireworks at night in 7 years because booking patterns change or your family suddenly HAS TO go during [insert DVC heavy booking period here].

 

[kboo]

I know I'll probably hear the "buy where you want to stay" anthem when I post this, but...

Right NOW there is a pattern on the R.A.T. showing busy seasons and slower seasons. YES I know the busy vs slow month patterns may change over time, but how long will that take and what will the new patterns be? (GUESSTIMATES are WELCOME). For the buyer with small kids who KNOWS he will likely be traveling in the slower times (perhaps August?) doesn't it make more sense to buy the cheaper points and switch at 7 months vs paying up for the more expensive points? WI have a tight budget and can't afford to overstretch my budget. Opinions WELCOME : )

This is an issue I struggle with on a daily basis. Such first world problems, LOL. We now own at BLT and VGF, and I think I can see us needing more points in the next 1-2 years. We often but not always take a WDW trip in late August, because 2 out of 4 in our family have birthdays then. So then the question becomes, add on BLT? add on VGF? or, because BLT and VGF are now so much more $$$ than when we bought just 6-14 months ago, should we just get the most cheap points possible (SSR) and use them for a summer vacation wherever we can get at 7 months? (and deal with the hassle of managing 3 home resorts and at least 2 UY)

So here's the thing - even with the higher average prices and dues, BLT usually comes in #3 in the cost pp over length of contract calculation. VGF still comes in #6. BUT we love BLT and VGF and would be happy even if we were "stuck" there on every trip. And at the time we bought BLT and VGF, we got a lower than average price per point that put BLT #1 most economical to buy compared to the chart at the time, and VGF at #2. I will admit that to some extent the comparison isn't fair because it's comparing a super low, great deal price on BLT and VGF versus an "average" price for SSR and OKW-E, but I thought it was helpful in illustrating that the spread is not as big as it seems.

So, for us in the future, I'll probably figure what would be a very good price for BLT and VGF that makes it comparable to an "average" SSR contract at the time, and also figure out what a super good, below average but possible attainable price for SSR, and figure if the cost difference is not that great, buy more points at VGF or BLT. Add to this the fact that SSR remains the most frequently ROFR'd resort, and VGF I believe is the least, though now that Poly and CCV resales are coming on, that may change.

The struggle is real.

Hopefully, Riviera doesn't have something like the Cabins or Bungalows that are huge point hogs that only a few members have enough points to enjoy, and double up on studios. Our family is to big for studios but I'm sure there are a lot of members that would love to see more built.

That would be super annoying. I bet they'll have top floor GV that are huge point hogs with fireworks views to one or both parks. And starting at $220 per point (at least) and likely points costs similar to VGF and Poly studios, there will probably be a lot of buyers who plan when they buy to stay in studios...

Good point, then again, if you WERE wealthy enough to be able to buy the HUGE point allotments necessary for POLY Bungalow nights, can someone explain to me WHY it would NOT be smarter from a financial perspective to simply buy the 'generic' month points at a cheaper place??? (Of course if you are wealthy enough to stay at POLY Bungalows on vacation, maybe you dont even care about costs!)

Hah. I have friends who inherited just one generation away from considerable self-made wealth who bought enough Poly points direct to stay in bungalows but as far as I can tell have not stayed at the Poly. Instead, they have stayed with extended family at GVs at AKV. They were aware of resale but were told by their guide about restrictions (and this may have been before the 2016 restrictions; not sure), and were on site, they had the cash available, and didn't want to spend the time hunting for the right resale contracts to piece together all the points they wanted. No way I would have done it that way, but I can see not wanting to piece together multiple resale contracts, with the drama of ROFR and matching UY if you easily had the cash on hand (I know, right?) *and* were not a WDW super-user. My one hope for them is that they at least got DVD to sell them like 5x200 or 10x100 points so they can break them up and sell them piecemeal if they want to.

The struggle is real.

 

[kboo]

It's probably less about "not caring about cost," but more about weighing what you risk by not paying for what you want up front, and whether that risk is worth the X dollars you would save buying SSR points instead.

I would guess that if you have enough points for the expressed purpose of staying in a Polynesian Bungalow, you are probably planning for a decent sized group and probably don't want to monkey around with not being able to get it at 7-months (as unlikely as that is presently). That's a lot of cash outlay to gamble that you don't end up in a treehouse instead of watching MK fireworks at night in 7 years because booking patterns change or your family suddenly HAS TO go during [insert DVC heavy booking period here].

we cross posted!

 

[Bing Showei]

they had the cash available, and didn't want to spend the time hunting for the right resale contracts to piece together all the points they wanted.

Well, there goes my theory. Yeah, I guess people have money to burn.

 

[kboo]

Well, there goes my theory. Yeah, I guess people have money to burn.

If you wanted to buy 1000+ points to stay in Poly bungalows, there's the risk that you can't get it over Xmas or New Years at 7 mo, and matching even 5x200 contracts for resort and UY would take a lot of time.

I guess I am lucky I don't have such problems.

 

[disneynutz]

We don't know what the economy will do and we don't know what Disney will do. Just in the last few years Disney has created events to increase attendance and demand. Runs, special events, new attractions, maybe even more in the future. DVC current management is big on special events which creates demand several times per year. If you truly don't care where you stay or when, buy cheap with just enough points. If you hate the idea of spending thousands of dollars and having to wake up early hoping to book where you want, then spend the money and buy where you love to stay.

Bill

 

[crisi]

Yeah, but they are NOT opening more resorts OUTSIDE WDW are they? the next ones I BELIEVE (and I do not know for certain, though Riviera is under construction near CBR) will be INSIDE WDW, therefore this thesis may not be correct...

Who knows? We thought they'd never open another one after HHI and VB and then they opened Aulani. They could offer something in the Caribbean or Mexico - the Bahamas are popular with Brits, and that is a huge Disney fan base (Aulani was marketed to the Japanese fan base). Personally, I don't think they'd go to a ski destination - too seasonal - but other people have thought they might.

 

[kniquy]

For the buyer with small kids who KNOWS he will likely be traveling in the slower times (perhaps August?)

If you have younger kids now, as they get older the demands of schools and sports will dictate your travel schedule. Unfortunately with twin boys who are 12 and very big into travel soccer - our now free summer is pretty much only July and the first couple of weeks in August. We are going next week for April vacation, but have found that it is also interfering with soccer.

Your best bet is to try and keep an open mind, get the most bang for your buck for a resort you would be happy at and happily move elsewhere if the opportunity arrises. A lot goes into the purchase decision. We were also on a strict budget and my thought process led me to buy AKV. We knew we needed a 1 BR and wanted to go every other year. I ruled out the older resorts (as in 10 -15 years if i need to sell i still want some life on the contract- a 2042 would only have 9-10 years left and not much value) as well as those higher priced resorts Poly, VGF, BLT, so that reduced me to OKW extended, SSR and AKV -- we did stay at SSR and although the price per point was similar the SSR MF were less, but we did not love SSR, so we went with AKV. Now looking at it it was a good move because for some reason the AKV contract price per point seems to have increased more than SSR (not that it will stay the same).

As for busier times there is really no way to predict. WDW is constantly creating things that draw people in and events are being dragged out longer. such as food an wine that now starts in August. WDW realizes it is a big event, september tends to be slower, so lets draw them in with food and wine. You just need to buy the point that will suit your family and be flexible to try different times of the year

 

[crisi]

We had similar issues with kids and timing - and didn't manage to get on many family vacations with all of us when they were teens. If you think traveling soccer is bad, wait until its that, plus a job, plus college level coursework, plus another activity, plus an ACT/SAT study course, plus......This year we left our young adults at home.

 

[skippytx]

Good point, then again, if you WERE wealthy enough to be able to buy the HUGE point allotments necessary for POLY Bungalow nights, can someone explain to me WHY it would NOT be smarter from a financial perspective to imply buy the 'generic' month points at a cheaper place??? (Of course if you are wealthy enough to stay at POLY Bungalows on vacation, maybe you dont even care about costs!)

Once you get to a certain point money stops being the issue, and the issue is time. I looked up the largest single contracts at DVC, which are dedicated weeks at the Bungalows. I can tell you almost for certain time is more important than money for those 2 people. They don't want to deal with any booking hassles.

Why do people charter 15,000 dollar private flights when a 900 dollar first class domestic ticket will get you to the same place? Time (and they can afford to).