Disney's MyMagic Failure

[OtherScott]

I categorically disagree with the bolded. I think it was always intended to be three and out, but the public relations backlash has forced a re-thinking. They may be very good at taking down the negative posts on FB, but behind closed doors, they cannot igore them. FP+ has been in testing in one form or another for, what?, about nine months? And in not one of those months or weeks or days did they bother to "test" A, B, or C. But just one month after the 1/15 sunsetting of FP-, Disney decides to poll its guests to see what changes they would like to see? Sorry, but if additional FPs had been on the drawing board all along, that paradigm would have been tested organically without the need to poll the audience or phone a friend. That poll tells me that they are scrambling to figure this thing out and that they did not have optons A, B or C waiting in the wings from the outset.

Of course you think this now. You've invested heavily in this mindset and it would be pretty disappointing to admit that maybe you misread the situation, or acted too hastily.

Yes, this has been around in "one form or another" for 9 months. Let's just skip past all the boring specifics of what those forms were and get right to the part where Disney, a month before pre-booking is made available to over half of it's guests, decides for the first time that maybe they should analyze, respond, assess. Afterall, who does that?

On November 11 I wrote this:

Yes, but additional FPs will come same-day. A reason for the logjam today is both systems are running concurrently in a manner the neither were designed to. Once the old goes dark you will be amazed at how many people don't use the FP+.

I've been lurking here for a few weeks and it has amazed me that people hold simultaneously the belief that their own success at planning and implementation at the expense of those who don't will somehow be erased because the latter will suddenly become planners. They won't.

FP+ is just a necessary element of MDE, which will allow Disney to feed opportunities to those wandering around the parks. My guess is that most of those notifications will be of the direct/indirect opportunity to spend money.

It wasn't because I was smart (although I get paid to be, whether I actually am or not), or that I'm exceptionally prescient. It is pretty much common sense.

Oh, the fashionable argument then was that they didn't have the capacity, based on some spreadsheet analysis. No time for behavioral analysis.

BTW, what was the median number of FPs guests pulled under the legacy system?

 

[rangebob]

This FP+ system is just bringing in longer standby lines. We were at EPCOT last week during the spring break time. I were there last year also before this system took effect. Spaceship Earth never had a wait in the afternoon. When we went over at around 3 there was a 30 minute wait. I think that this new system is inflating the standby lines while they have allowed more FP to go through. I know what they wanted is people to stay out of lines and into their shops but I don't know if this was part of the results that they were looking for.

 

[JimmyV]

...a month before pre-booking is made available to over half of it's guests, decides for the first time that maybe they should analyze, respond, assess. Afterall, who does that?

Someone who made a mistake and misread the playing field. It does happen.

BTW, what was the median number of FPs guests pulled under the legacy system?

Well below three, which is why they thought that three would be sufficient and why they did not anticipate the public demanding more. Your argument would have the jury believe that Disney, knowing that the median number of FPs pulled was 1.something, and having 2+ years to inquire of its guests if they would prefer A, B, or C to the a system that only allowed for three, knew from the outset that it was going to increase the number beyond three and elected to poll its audience only after a roll out that is getting thrashed in the media, but that the timing of this poll was anticipated all along. I am asking the jury to believe that Disney, knowing that the median number of FPs pulled was 1.something, assumed that three would be sufficient and when the backlash became worrisome, decided to go to the source to find out what they would prefer instead. I am very comfortable taking that case to the jury.

 

[2Tiggies]

They didn't add all those secondary attractions because the rides needed FP. They added them just to bump up the numbers.

This.

Cheaper than building new attractions. Just make people line up with FP at attractions they wouldn't ordinarily have worried about riding.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

Of course you think this now. You've invested heavily in this mindset and it would be pretty disappointing to admit that maybe you misread the situation, or acted too hastily.

Yes, this has been around in "one form or another" for 9 months. Let's just skip past all the boring specifics of what those forms were and get right to the part where Disney, a month before pre-booking is made available to over half of it's guests, decides for the first time that maybe they should analyze, respond, assess. Afterall, who does that?

On November 11 I wrote this:



It wasn't because I was smart (although I get paid to be, whether I actually am or not), or that I'm exceptionally prescient. It is pretty much common sense.

Oh, the fashionable argument then was that they didn't have the capacity, based on some spreadsheet analysis. No time for behavioral analysis.

BTW, what was the median number of FPs guests pulled under the legacy system?

Depends on the time of year. Value season no need. Peak season, it was necessary to pull multiples and which ones to pull first were a matter of how time you put into educating yourself.

How many times and at what time of year did you travel? You've only been registered on the disboards since November with most of your posts defending FP+ and questioning those that don't like it.

 

[clsteve]

This.

Cheaper than building new attractions. Just make people line up with FP at attractions they wouldn't ordinarily have worried about riding.

Yes.

Hmmm, so I wonder how many more Meet and Greets will pop up between now and Avatar in 2018....?

 

[OtherScott]

Well below three, which is why they thought that three would be sufficient and why they did not anticipate the public demanding more.

Sufficient for what? Remember, the goal is to keep you in the park. How does limiting you to 3 FPs do that more effectively than allowing you 3+ A, B or C?

1. 3 FPs
2. ?
3. Increased profit!

Your argument would have the jury believe that Disney, knowing that the median number of FPs pulled was 1.something, and having 2+ years to inquire of its guests if they would prefer A, B, or C to the a system that only allowed for three, knew from the outset that it was going to increase the number beyond three and elected to poll its audience only after a roll out that is getting thrashed in the media, but that the timing of this poll was anticipated all along.

My argument today is what it has been all along. Disney set a floor they knew they would never have to go below. This lowered the ceiling others created for themselves. 3 will be the floor to keep 1.? in the park, and the ceiling will adjust to demand and availability.

For someone who takes part in million dollar projects, it's striking that you don't consider this SOP.

I am asking the jury to believe that Disney, knowing that the median number of FPs pulled was 1.something, assumed that three would be sufficient and when the backlash became worrisome, decided to go to the source to find out what they would prefer instead. I am very comfortable taking that case to the jury.

When you're a jury of one, everything's comfortable. But the question remains, what was Disney planning to do with the additional FPs? Let you walk out the gate with a dollar in your pocket?

Apply some consistency to what you think about Disney and this will clear up a lot. I think they're the greedy corporatists that you think they are.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

This FP+ system is just bringing in longer standby lines. We were at EPCOT last week during the spring break time. I were there last year also before this system took effect. Spaceship Earth never had a wait in the afternoon. When we went over at around 3 there was a 30 minute wait. I think that this new system is inflating the standby lines while they have allowed more FP to go through. I know what they wanted is people to stay out of lines and into their shops but I don't know if this was part of the results that they were looking for.

Ugh. We always hit that in the afternoon prior to are dinner reservation because even during peak season most guests had moved farther into the park and it was a walk on.

So either we make dinner on time, cut short our nap/break/pool time in the afternoon or skip SE. In what way has FP+ added value to our trip.:rolleyes?

 

[OtherScott]

Depends on the time of year. Value season no need. Peak season, it was necessary to pull multiples and which ones to pull first were a matter of how time you put into educating yourself.

How many times and at what time of year did you travel? You've only been registered on the disboards since November with most of your posts defending FP+ and questioning those that don't like it.

I've been 4 times in my life. First time 20 years ago, just me and the future Mrs. OtherScott. 12 years later with Kid 1 (aged 4). 4 Years later with Kid 1 (7) and Kid 2 (3). 4 years later with same kids and 2 sets of grandparents.

I have been on DisBoards since about 2006, but lost my ability to recover my password because my e-mail was a domain based POP3 which I didn't have access to.

I am not defending FP+, per se. Rather, I think I see the logic behind it given (among other things) demographic trends. It's really just that simple.

I don't care if they keep it, change it, scrap it.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

I've been 4 times in my life. First time 20 years ago, just me and the future Mrs. OtherScott. 12 years later with Kid 1 (aged 4). 4 Years later with Kid 1 (7) and Kid 2 (3). 4 years later with same kids and 2 sets of grandparents.

I have been on DisBoards since about 2006, but lost my ability to recover my password because my e-mail was a domain based POP3 which I didn't have access to.

I am not defending FP+, per se. Rather, I think I see the logic behind it given (among other things) demographic trends. It's really just that simple.

I don't care if they keep it, change it, scrap it.

What demographic trends would that be?

 

[JeremyGNJ]

Sufficient for what? Remember, the goal is to keep you in the park. How does limiting you to 3 FPs do that more effectively than allowing you 3+ A, B or C?

Everyone keeps saying this, but I don't think it's the case. I do NOT think the goal is to keep you in the park. I think the real goal is to keep you in the park as short as possible, but still spending nearly the same amount of money.

What I mean is, that most people will spend *about* the same amount of money whether they are in the park for 4 hours or 6 hours. People have STILL paid for admission. People are STILL going to buy souvenirs no matter how long they are in the park. They are STILL going to eat a meal.

Having people stay for less time, might reduce a *little* bit of spending for that second meal they might have bought. but for a lot of people they are going to still eat on Disney property anyway. Better to keep the crowds lower but still collect the admission fee.

 

[Robo]

Better to keep the crowds lower but still collect the admission fee.

If "admission fee" was the goal for making money, they wouldn't charge $10 a day after the 4th day on a multi-day ticket.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

If "admission fee" was the goal for making money, they wouldn't charge $10 a day after the 4th day on a multi-day ticket.

That is just to prevent you from going to other places. They still want your money. But even on Day 4 you wont spend that much more if you're there for 6 hours than if you're there for 4 hours.

 

[lugnut33]

Yes.

Hmmm, so I wonder how many more Meet and Greets will pop up between now and Avatar in 2018....?

Well, the MK needs more M&Gs because when I popped on the MDE site at 9 a.m. this morning (park opening for the MK) almost every one of them had no FP+ slots available.

Hmm, we were concerned that things like Space Mtn. or Splash might end up like getting ADRs for the popular restaurants when in fact it appears the Meet and Greets will be first. Makes sense due to the lack of through put.

 

[OtherScott]

What demographic trends would that be?

Losses in the 5-14 age range and 30-44 range, disproportionate rate increases in 50+

The overall numbers in these groups isn't the problem. It's the trend lines.

 

[clsteve]

Well, the MK needs more M&Gs because when I popped on the MDE site at 9 a.m. this morning (park opening for the MK) almost every one of them had no FP+ slots available.

Hmm, we were concerned that things like Space Mtn. or Splash might end up like getting ADRs for the popular restaurants when in fact it appears the Meet and Greets will be first. Makes sense due to the lack of through put.

It's the cheapest, quickest and lowest maintenance capacity for them to add before Avatar and potentially ups the FP+ pool......

 

[morethananyonex]

Everyone keeps saying this, but I don't think it's the case. I do NOT think the goal is to keep you in the park. I think the real goal is to keep you in the park as short as possible, but still spending nearly the same amount of money. What I mean is, that most people will spend *about* the same amount of money whether they are in the park for 4 hours or 6 hours. People have STILL paid for admission. People are STILL going to buy souvenirs no matter how long they are in the park. They are STILL going to eat a meal. Having people stay for less time, might reduce a *little* bit of spending for that second meal they might have bought. but for a lot of people they are going to still eat on Disney property anyway. Better to keep the crowds lower but still collect the admission fee.

I think Disney's ideal scenario is families entering a park right before a meal, eating it, using 3 FP, shopping, eat another meal and leave. After/before that, they would ideally be somewhere else on Disney property spending money (aka not hanging by the pool or in the room).

I think they do realize that although ideal, there are many other less than ideal scenarios that can play out. Family spends most of their day (and meal/souvenir money) at Universal, using their 3 Disney FP in the evening, watch a nighttime show and then leave the park. Family eats breakfast in the room, makes rope drop, rides for an hour or two, leaves property for eating and cheaper more varied shopping, comes back after supper and uses FP. The scenarios go on and on. They may have found that when people leave the parks sooner they aren't necessarily spending money like they would in park. While FP+ locks people into their schedules, it also can have the opposite effect. People who previously locked themselves in with the way they liked to your may find themselves taking the opportunity to explore other options while still having 3 FP.

The survey was very specific about asking if the proposed scenarios would lengthen your time in the park and make it more relaxing. Interpret that how you will, but I take that to mean they want you relaxed in the park spending money, not minimizing your park time with the chance that you leave Disney completely to spend some of that money.

 

[OtherScott]

Everyone keeps saying this, but I don't think it's the case. I do NOT think the goal is to keep you in the park. I think the real goal is to keep you in the park as short as possible, but still spending nearly the same amount of money.

What I mean is, that most people will spend *about* the same amount of money whether they are in the park for 4 hours or 6 hours. People have STILL paid for admission. People are STILL going to buy souvenirs no matter how long they are in the park. They are STILL going to eat a meal.

Having people stay for less time, might reduce a *little* bit of spending for that second meal they might have bought. but for a lot of people they are going to still eat on Disney property anyway. Better to keep the crowds lower but still collect the admission fee.

There's a bit of a zero sum game at play. Whether you're on a hard budget or soft, money spent outside the park won't be available to be spent inside the park.

1/2 your park guests aren't staying at your resorts, so their money goes wherever they go.

Of the 1/2 staying at your resort, Disney averages about $260 per room, per night. That $260 is divided among all of the guests in that room. Deduct from $260 what it costs Disney to house these guests (rooms, reservations, security, housekeeping, grounds maintenance, life guards, transportation) and that number is greatly reduced.

So in park spending is very important because it's the money you get from everyone.

The difference between 4 and 6 hours can mean anything from nothing to a character meal for 4.

 

[JeremyGNJ]

I think they do realize that although ideal, there are many other less than ideal scenarios that can play out. Family spends most of their day (and meal/souvenir money) at Universal, using their 3 Disney FP in the evening, watch a nighttime show and then leave the park. Family eats breakfast in the room, makes rope drop, rides for an hour or two, leaves property for eating and cheaper more varied shopping, comes back after supper and uses FP. The scenarios go on and on. They may have found that when people leave the parks sooner they aren't necessarily spending money like they would in park. While FP+ locks people into their schedules, it also can have the opposite effect. People who previously locked themselves in with the way they liked to your may find themselves taking the opportunity to explore other options while still having 3 FP.

But remember, in this scenario. They still collected their park admission. Even though they came into the park to use 3 FP+ and then leave...that did not significantly affect the crowd levels.

 

[MaryKatesMom]

I've been 4 times in my life. First time 20 years ago, just me and the future Mrs. OtherScott. 12 years later with Kid 1 (aged 4). 4 Years later with Kid 1 (7) and Kid 2 (3). 4 years later with same kids and 2 sets of grandparents.

I have been on DisBoards since about 2006, but lost my ability to recover my password because my e-mail was a domain based POP3 which I didn't have access to.

I am not defending FP+, per se. Rather, I think I see the logic behind it given (among other things) demographic trends. It's really just that simple.

I don't care if they keep it, change it, scrap it.

I will give you one trend but it will cut both ways.

More people are technologically savy. So, the demand for using an app on smartphone which didn't even exist 10 years ago is up. However, so is internet use. The number of people that go to boards such as this to educate themselves on how best to tour WDW is way up.

One of the most, if not THE most popular thread last month was how to prioritize FP+ selections. Now, even first time guests who just a few years ago would go to the parks blind and may not have know a thing about FP-, will be looking for information on what to pick for FP+.

Think about that. How do you know what your favorite attraction is if you never been there?

Impressions de France is in my top ten and I probably never even went the first couple of trips. Then I wandered in because it is a sit down with a non-exsistent SB line (until they add a FP+ line anyway ).