Looking at some numbers from the event guide:
-5k states it starts at 5:00am and closes at 5:15am. Spectator finish line states it closes at 6:15am. A 16 min/mile for 3.11 miles is ~50 min. So I'd say this jives with the expectation that the start will close very close to 5:15am, and all runners will be expected to maintain close to a 16 min/mile. At most a 24 min/mile. Compare that with a WDW 5k where the gap in time between gun and last person is closer to 60 min. My daughter and I for the 2023 Princess 5k took a little over 120 min to finish the race (enjoying character pics). So this race has a much smaller window for getting character pics. Take for instance the nearly 60 min we waited in line for three princesses in the 2022 Princess 5k. Seems like this race will be a little quicker with less available time.
-10k states it starts at 5:00am and closes at 5:25am. If we believe the 5k's "close goal" is accurate, then I'll presume this one is as well.
Here are the number of finishers in each of the past
Disneyland 10ks for either Star Wars Light Side (Jan) or DIsneyland (Sept)
2017 - 11612 and 8197
2016 - 8994 and 9006
2015 - ? and 9048
Usual number of 10k finishers in Disneyland races is ~9371.
runDIsney at WDW uses mini-waves and an even flow rate to get runners across the start line. Which means the 50th percentile runner may be in Corral D of F, but they still cross at the 50th percentile mark. For instance, if they release all runners in 60 min total time, the 50th percentile runner is released around the 30 min mark. So instead of releasing 5 corrals in 1/5 increments, the release of corrals is proportionally related to the number of runners within that corral.
To get 9371 runners across the start line in 25 min would be a flow rate of 374 runners per minute.
How does that compare to other WDW races?
-The 2023 WDW Marathon had 12694 finishers and released in 44 min which is 289 runners per minute.
-The 2023 WDW HM had 15344 finishers and released in 59 min which is 260 runners per minute.
-The 2023 WDW 10k had 11868 finishers and released in 65 min which is 182 runners per minute.
-The 2022 WDW 10k had 10509 finishers and released in 65 min which is 161 runners per minute.
And compared to Disneyland races?
-2017 Light Side 10k had 11612 finishers and released in 44 min which is 263 runners per minute.
-2016 Light Side 10k had 8994 finishers and released in 33 min which is 272 runners per minute.
-2017 DIsneyland 10k had 8197 finishers and released in 49 min which is 167 runners per minute.
-2016 DIsneyland 10k had 9006 finishers and released in 37 min which is 243 runners per minute.
So if we truly release in 25 min for the 2024 Disneyland 10k, then it'll be quicker than any recent previous Disneyland race, and will be more dense at 374 runners per minute than most recent runDisney races.
-HM states it starts at 5:00am and closes at 5:35am.
Here are the number of finishers in each of the past Disneyland HMs for either Star Wars Light Side (Jan) or DIsneyland (Sept)
2017 - 12442 and 8717
2016 - 11612 and 13084
2015 - ? and 15248
Usual number of HM finishers in Disneyland races is ~12220.
To get 12220 runners across the start line in 35 min would be a flow rate of 349 runners per minute.
And compared to Disneyland races?
-2017 Light Side HM had 12442 finishers and released in 65 min which is 191 runners per minute.
-2016 Light Side HM had 11612 finishers and released in 35 min which is 331 runners per minute.
-2017 DIsneyland HM had 8717 finishers and released in 45 min which is 193 runners per minute.
-2016 DIsneyland HM had 13084 finishers and released in 61 min which is 214 runners per minute.
So if we truly release in 35 min for the 2024 Disneyland HM, then it'll be quicker than most recent previous Disneyland races, and will be more dense at 349 runners per minute than most recent runDisney races. But the 2016 Light Side HM does she there's some precedence for the speed and density.
It'll be interesting to revisit these numbers after the race weekend to see how close they stuck to what they said they would do.