Yes Tim, always carry a little octane with me!

Hey, any way you slice it, the outcome is the same. Owners will eventually add on more points to continue their vacation habits...lets do a poll. How many were NOT affected? I would venture to say, more than 50%. Are 50% of those affected going to sell? No way....will they adjust vacation habits, initally yes. After that, I bet no. Thus, ad-ons...
But it's still a VERY limited add-on market that would have been directly created by the reallocation in order for that to have been a motivator. You're talking about people who:
1. Have had their trips negatively impacted by the change.
2. Are not ticked-off enough to either sell or take a firm stance on no more add-ons.
3. Are rigidly determined to maintain their current vacation patterns (rather than altering their plans to better fit the new system.)
4. Wouldn't have otherwise been in the market for an add-on in the near future (can't really count people who were going to add anyway.)
5. Are impacted enough to actually justify an add-on. Some may just be 2 points or 10 points short, and can manage by borrowing for many years to come.
6. Have the resources to add more points.
ALL of those would have to apply in order for this reallocation to earn DVC new business. With only about 130,000 families members of DVC, I think that's a pretty small market for tiny little add-on contracts. And it will NOT be a growing market. Now that the reallocation is done, anyone who buys from this point forward has full knowledge of the new values.
Meanwhile, among the cons that have come from the reallocation are:
1. DVC is no longer the value it used to be to new (potential) members. DVC has undoubtedly lost a segment of its potential market
FOR YEARS TO COME because some accommodations are effectively going up in price by 20%. If you're comparing to Value or even Moderate rates, DVC no longer stacks-up nearly as well as it did in the past.
2. Obviously it has created a lot of ill will among current members who (in my opinion) don't really understand the nature of--or need for--a periodic reallocation.
One final thought: IF this move were driven by a desire to sell more points, why not do it 2 years ago? Why not 5 years ago or 8 years ago? I believe that Dean has said that DVC has known a reallocation was needed as far back as 2001, but they held off doing it out of fear of member backlash. (That's also 2-3 years before Jim Lewis was appointed VP of DVC.)
I just don't see how this could result in a net positive impact on sales. But DVC had to bite the bullet at some point. I'll agree that sales are very much a concern. But rather than predicting that the reallocation will increase sales, I think it will probably decrease sales in the short term. But with the resort offerings DVC has available now, they probably feel they can weather the storm and get this necessary move out of the way.