Disney is still the KING!!! Attendance at MK up by 6%!!!!!

[clsteve]

Looking at Fiscal year 2013 world wide segment results, we have the following

Disney Universal
Revenue $11,394 $2,235
Segment $ 3,590 $1,004
Income
Profit % 31.5% 44.9%

So while Disney has more revenue and more profit from theme parks and resorts world wide, Universal does a better job at converting revenue into income for the segment.

The % rev/prof based on price increases adjusted is always an interesting take, as well. I haven't compared the 2. Didn't know if you have, but the insight on the earnings call earlier in the year was insightful...

 

[NavyDad]

They were pretty clear when discussing MM+ with investors that the purpose is to keep their visitors from leaving Disney property and spending money elsewhere in the Orlando area.

There is a difference in not wanting to someone to leave say MK on a day they are visiting there and go eat and shop on I-Drive AND a family that decides to make a trip to Orlando because they have been wanting to visit Disney again and decide to do because they can do 3 days at UO after 5 at WDW.

 

[AnAmericanInDisney]

WARNING: Assumptions built on assumptions ahead.

When looking at market share, "unique visitors" is a very important number, and the tables in the report don't tell us that. But we can probably assume that visitors to WDW turn the turnstiles at the MK more times during a week-long vacation than they do at AK. In fact, AK may be a "once per vacation" park. So using that number, WDW may be drawing around 10.2 million people per year. Those 10 million people might be going to the MK on average 1.8 times per vacation, and AK once per vacation, accounting for the turnstile differences between the parks. And perhaps US is a "once per vacation" park as well, and it is drawing around 7 million per year. So in comparing unique visitors, maybe WDW is drawing around 10 million to US's 7 million. WDW wins, but the difference might not be as great as it seems.

But also, many (most?) of the people at one company's park are the same people who go to the other company's park. This isn't like Coke vs. Pepsi at the grocery store. A small percentage of people might buy a 2 liter bottle of Coke and a 2 liter bottle of Pepsi during the same store visit. But most choose one or the other. If 10 million people buy Coke and 7 million people buy Pepsi, that means there are probably close to 17 million cola buyers. But that is not the way Central Florida works. Since there is a lot of cross-over, if US grows in numbers, then WDW probably does too. And vice versa. A clear case of a rising tide raising all boats.

What about annual passholders?

 

[DisUniversal]

What about annual passholders?

Currently have annual passes to all 3.

Disney cost us about $500 per pass.
Universal cost us about $200 per pass.
SeaWorld cost us less than $50 per pass.

Universal seems to be the clear favorite among locals (at least the majority of those I know)...both for the parks and even more so, Citywalk over Downtown Disney.

 

[NavyDad]

They still lost money by losing 4% of the share they used to have. Even if the market grew by 100B to 200B, that's 8 billion dollars of lost revenue even though they controlled 70% of the market and reaped the benefits of a growing economy. Looking at the short term destroys alot of companies so while it may not be an issue now, it could be one in the future. And we know Disney is greedy (hence the thread about stuff we miss) so this is definitely on their radar, which it should be. Competitive analysis is vital in the theme park industry.

Well, again, losing 4% of market share does not actually equate to losing revenue or profit because the market has expanded (in large parts due to WWoHP and then later NFL) over the same time period.

Both parks have had increases in attendance, revenue and profits during said time.

Also you can't assume the loss of potential revenue because its not safe to assume the total Orlando market would have expanded at the same rate without the addition of WWoHP.

I understand people (OP included) are constantly looking for some data to validate their POV but in reality this is not a zero sum game.

I think it was Jimmy earlier that posted this is a classic case of "the rising tide lifts all boats" and I think he is probably very close to the truth (except Sea World I guess

OT - even after watching Black Fish my family and I are looking forward to adding a day at SW this next trip for the first time since my childhood visit to SW Ohio some time in the 80's

 

[EPCOTatNight]

Of course they have the higher share, but UO gained market share in this case with attendance percentages. UO outgrew Disney in 2013, those numbers are as plain as day. And that's if you combine all 4 parks. If you look at MK and Epcot, UO more than doubled the attendance gains.

It's hard to move up when you're already at the top. Doesn't a hill get harder to climb the higher that you get?

 

[Mad Hattered]

Well, again, losing 4% of market share does not actually equate to losing revenue or profit because the market has expanded (in large parts due to WWoHP and then later NFL) over the same time period.

Both parks have had increases in attendance, revenue and profits during said time.

Also you can't assume the loss of potential revenue because its not safe to assume the total Orlando market would have expanded at the same rate without the addition of WWoHP.

I understand people (OP included) are constantly looking for some data to validate their POV but in reality this is not a zero sum game.

I think it was Jimmy earlier that posted this is a classic case of "the rising tide lifts all boats" and I think he is probably very close to the truth (except Sea World I guess

OT - even after watching Black Fish my family and I are looking forward to adding a day at SW this next trip for the first time since my childhood visit to SW Ohio some time in the 80's

I think what most fans REALLY want is for TDO to get a kick in the shorts so that they step up their game. If it takes Uni stealing/converting some guests then so be it.

I know there has to be a lot of crossover between Uni and Disney but one can't afford (I use that term loosely and not figuratively) to lose ground. Bragging rights go a long way...and if that were to happen at one of their parks one day then it would make them look vulnerable. They don't want that. We will not be going to WDW again until Avatar opens. I know there will be a hundred people who take our place and the 98 others who do the same as us, but that only equals flat growth. I am really curious how long Disney can live on it's reputation and ridiculous increases alone.

If Disney came out and announced a Star Wars expansion at WDW on the day Diagon Alley opens up then I would be here singing their praises. I have a feeling I am going to be dealing with DA euphoria all over the place and waiting with baited banana breath for Kong to open.

 

[DisUniversal]

It's hard to move up when you're already at the top. Doesn't a hill get harder to climb the higher that you get?

Yes...and once at the top, the only way to move is down.

 

[WILDERNESS FAN 55]

Yes...and once at the top, the only way to move is down.

Or stay firmly at the top of that hill for a very very long time , like 43 years and counting

 

[Mad Hattered]

Or stay firmly at the top of that hill for a very very long time , like 43 years and counting

http://www.zdnet.com/ibm-at-100-a-prosperous-failure-3040093143/

 

[JoeA]

Right now Universal certainly has more vitality and it's easier to enjoy double digit growth when your base number is lower than the (clear) market leader. But at the end of the day, Universal is a theme park and Disney is a "brand".

I believe you manage each differently and the talk of Disney falling off their tower is premature, IMO.

We have all "been there / done that" with Disney but I can assure you that more people have a "Disney vacation fund" than a "Universal fund".

 

[macphisto96]

Right now Universal certainly has more vitality and it's easier to enjoy double digit growth when your base number is lower than the (clear) market leader. But at the end of the day, Universal is a theme park and Disney is a "brand".

I believe you manage each differently and the talk of Disney falling off their tower is premature, IMO.

We have all "been there / done that" with Disney but I can assure you that more people have a "Disney vacation fund" than a "Universal fund".

Absolutely true, though I think more people have Universal vacation funds due to Harry Potter than before. I think few had them prior to 2010.

But in the past, few dollars from the "Disney vacation fund" went to Universal. Universal has been getting a larger share of the fund - and the family fund itself is probably getting larger to accommodate more days.

There's a reason Universal added Cabana Cay and 900 family suites. They are filling up their resorts and many people are splitting their resort time between Disney and the Universal area.

The net effect is more people are coming to the parks overall. SeaWorld is an exception, though that had a lot to do with bad publicity from Blackfish that is subsiding (especially as the documentary has been slandered by even those that participated in it and did so under false pretenses by the film makers). That will fade and my guess is all the SeaWorld Parks will rebound this year.

 

[bookgirl]

It has to be concerning to Disney that Universal is growing at an insane rate. 14% is a ton of market share. And once the train opens in Harry Potter the attendance numbers will jump considerably for IOA as well. May even surpass DHS and AK.

ehhh

MK still had 10,000,000 more visitors then IOA. They'd have to be growing at 100% before Disney starts to worry.

 

[BuckeyeBama]

ehhh

MK still had 10,000,000 more visitors then IOA. They'd have to be growing at 100% before Disney starts to worry.

Also, MK's growth in terms of additional guests was higher than US'. US' 14% is higher because its base is lower. MK had the greatest growth last year, adding over 1 million more guests to 2012's attendance.


Also interesting to note that IoA's growth has slowed considerably - only up 2% YOY. As most of you know, this is the Harry Potter park. Could be that Harry Potter fans postponed trips until this summer in anticipation of the opening of Diagon Alley, but the IoA growth numbers are a surprise to me.

 

[TaylorsDad]

If I opened up a shop and another person opens the same type of business a few miles away and both of us see and increase in attendance and sales I am still pleased. However if I only saw a 6% and the other one saw a %14 increase I would be looking to see how I could boost my attendance by looking at what he is doing right.

 

[crazycatlady]

I have to agree with this. I worked in both theme parks/resorts. In my experience people made the trip to Orlando for Disney. In fact, you would be surprised how many visitors don't even know Universal isn't owned by Disney! I got asked daily, no joke, "So where is Mickey and the castle?" when I worked at Universal. I never got the opposite question at Disney... People are still coming to Orlando mainly to the Mouse and I don't see that changing any time soon.

When I took my dad to DW last year, he wanted to know when we were going to see the HP stuff.

 

[seascapemvy]

The money doesn't come from attendance so why you are rejoicing oh look at the number of people. The money comes from food and merchandise which Disney and UOR makes even more money. So if for every one visitor at Disney, disney gets $10 for food and merchandise while Universal gets $70. It pretty much cancels out a lot of visitors and brings Disney and Universal even. Keep that in mind also before premature rejoicing and bragging when it comes to this Disney Vs Universal fight.

Where did you get the spending figures from? No one I know spends less than $100.00 a day at WDW just for food. Then you can add close to $2,000.00 more a week for Disney Spits and Jackets each week 3 times a year. And that is just for the 2 of us.

 

[seascapemvy]

So the WDW parks and the universal parks each brought in about an additional 1 million people from the year before. Gonna go ahead and call that a draw.

WDW was actually up 1.6 million while Universal was up over 1 million. Raw numbers DISNEY wins. Percentage Universal wins. In reality Orlando wins.

 

[seascapemvy]

Absolutely true, though I think more people have Universal vacation funds due to Harry Potter than before. I think few had them prior to 2010.

But in the past, few dollars from the "Disney vacation fund" went to Universal. Universal has been getting a larger share of the fund - and the family fund itself is probably getting larger to accommodate more days.

There's a reason Universal added Cabana Cay and 900 family suites. They are filling up their resorts and many people are splitting their resort time between Disney and the Universal area.

The net effect is more people are coming to the parks overall. SeaWorld is an exception, though that had a lot to do with bad publicity from Blackfish that is subsiding (especially as the documentary has been slandered by even those that participated in it and did so under false pretenses by the film makers). That will fade and my guess is all the SeaWorld Parks will rebound this year.

Universal is adding hotel rooms and in fact said they could have 10,000 rooms eventually. Disney on the other hand will also add more rooms. Let's see Flamingo Crossing will have 5,000 hotel and timeshare rooms and probably finished before the WDW 50th in 7 years. You can also count on another large DVC resort and a mid priced resort. I would say that will total well over 10,000 more WDW rooms by 2021. Disney will not sit back and not expand. The market is there for both companies. However Disney will in the not too distant future have the 5 highest attended parks in Orlando because when they do build the 5th gate it will become number 5 or higher it's first full year of operation.

 

[NYDisGuy]

ehhh

MK still had 10,000,000 more visitors then IOA. They'd have to be growing at 100% before Disney starts to worry.

Do you really think Disney would still operate MDE if it wasn't for Universal? Look at my username, i'm not a UO homer but i'm not going to put blinders on and say Disney is king and there is nothing to worry about. Ask any investor and they will tell you the same thing. You don't want Disney to be a monopoly and not worry about UO nor do you want Universal to continue to chew into the profits of Disney. Either way is a danger for the consumer.