Disney is still the KING!!! Attendance at MK up by 6%!!!!!

[NYDisGuy]

What? Disney Orlando had 50 million visitors. Universal Orlando had 15 million visitors. Now, most of these were probably the same people going to different "Disney" parks, so I would guess it's like 20 million Disney and 10 million Universal "unique visitors." Disney has a much higher market share, however you look at the numbers.

Of course they have the higher share, but UO gained market share in this case with attendance percentages. UO outgrew Disney in 2013, those numbers are as plain as day. And that's if you combine all 4 parks. If you look at MK and Epcot, UO more than doubled the attendance gains.

 

[NavyDad]

The fact that US Orlando grew 14% by opening Despicable Me and Transformers then think what is about to happen once Diagon Alley opens up!!

And if you add up all 4 Disney parks and compare it to the two Universal parks then UO wins 16% to 11.5%. MARKETSHARE folks....marketshare.

USO's market share has been increasing and will continue to do so but is way, way below WDW's and will continue to do so for a long time.

IF USO could maintain around a 9% growth for about 15 years and WDW continued a 3% growth every year I think WDW would still have a larger market share. Someone who is better at math than me can check that if they want.....

 

[Mad Hattered]

USO's market share has been increasing and will continue to do so but is way, way below WDW's and will continue to do so for a long time.

IF USO could maintain around a 9% growth for about 15 years and WDW continued a 3% growth every year I think WDW would still have a larger market share. Someone who is better at math than me can check that if they want.....

All I was pointing out is that UO's market share is GROWING. That is something Disney does NOT want.

 

[NavyDad]

All I was pointing out is that UO's market share is GROWING. That is something Disney does NOT want.

People like to make a big deal about the competition between these two but I'm not 100% convinced that Disney is at all concerned about USO growth.

There is no evidence that positive growth at USO effects Disney's bottom line at all. With the exception of Sea World every Orlando area attraction has seen an increase in attendance so generally speaking more people are visiting Orlando in general which is good for Disney.

I would love to see the numbers but I suspect the number of people spending time at multiple Orlando parks has increased. It's not scientific but I know my family has started doing this and with attendance at almost all properties increasing I'm willing to bet a lot of people have been doing the same the last few years....

The number disparity between the parks is so large I wouldn't consider them two competitors in reality. (50 million to 15 million)

It's a similar comparison to the CEO of a company worrying about the fact that a junior exec is bringing in too much business and might replace him someday. In reality that CEO is just going to be happy the junior exec is bringing more business to the firm (Orlando).

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

I agree. The title is a little misleading. Magic Kingdom is up 6%.

Not sure 1-2% deserve even 1 exclamation point.

I was going to say the same thing. According to the report the top 25 theme parks had a 4.3 % overall growth rate. Limit that to US parks and the growth rate was 2.7.%

 

[surferdave]

People like to make a big deal about the competition between these two but I'm not 100% convinced that Disney is at all concerned about USO growth.

There is no evidence that positive growth at USO effects Disney's bottom line at all. With the exception of Sea World every Orlando area attraction has seen an increase in attendance so generally speaking more people are visiting Orlando in general which is good for Disney.

I would love to see the numbers but I suspect the number of people spending time at multiple Orlando parks has increased. It's not scientific but I know my family has started doing this and with attendance at almost all properties increasing I'm willing to bet a lot of people have been doing the same the last few years....

The number disparity between the parks is so large I wouldn't consider them two competitors in reality. (50 million to 15 million)

It's a similar comparison to the CEO of a company worrying about the fact that a junior exec is bringing in too much business and might replace him someday. In reality that CEO is just going to be happy the junior exec is bringing more business to the firm (Orlando).

They were pretty clear when discussing MM+ with investors that the purpose is to keep their visitors from leaving Disney property and spending money elsewhere in the Orlando area.

 

[Bruce in PA]

USO's market share is growing, but not tremendously, and it is not having much impact at all on WDW. Combine Disney's 4 gates vs. USO's two and you find:

Market share 2012:
Disney = 71.3%
Universal=20.8%

Market share 2013:
Disney = 71.2%
Universal= 21.6%

A rising tide lifts all boats (except for the S.S.Seaworld, it appears), and the tide of tourist dollars is definitely going up.

 

[RMulieri]

I am honestly surprised that at least one (or both) of the Universal parks in Orlando hasn't moved past DAK or DHS. Are they just not physically capable of handling that many guests or does Disney just still have the monopoly -- i.e., guilt by association (or park hopper, as the case may be!)? I guess an entry into DAK or DHS for even half a day counts as a visitor, so it would be interesting if there was a way to count something like hours spent in a park. Not suggesting these are half-day parks (we can manage to spend a full day in each if we work at it...but we do have to work at it), but there's no denying that they could both use some tender loving care, eh? I'm a big DHS fan and think that with just a few tweaks, it could move up pretty easily. Will be interesting to watch these numbers when Avatarland and the Rivers of Light night show are done at DAK....and Diagon Alley down the street.

My guess is that people are reluctant to leave Disney property once on it and lets face it...a ONE day ticket to either Unviersal or Disney isnt cheap.Plus unless you have a car , you need to factor in travel costs...

 

[Brian Noble]

Disney needs to figure out what they can do to get those Magic Kingdom visitors into the other parks. 6% increase in MK, only 1.5-2% in the other Orlando gates.

This primarily reflects the success of New Fantasyland---and not all of it was open for much of 2013.

I was surprised at how well the Transformers performed for USO, even given the folks likely putting off a trip until Diagon Alley opens (we are, for example). Good year for Universal.

 

[MuddyTires]

And if you add up all 4 Disney parks and compare it to the two Universal parks then UO wins 16% to 11.5%. MARKETSHARE folks....marketshare.

Time for some remedial math.

 

[mesaboy2]

The fact that US Orlando grew 14% by opening Despicable Me and Transformers then think what is about to happen once Diagon Alley opens up!!

And if you add up all 4 Disney parks and compare it to the two Universal parks then UO wins 16% to 11.5%. MARKETSHARE folks....marketshare.

Time for some remedial math.

Yeah, that's not how percentages work last I checked. (Sorry MH.)

 

[Brian Noble]

Time for some remedial math.

Here's the way to compare UO vs. WDW growth on a percentage basis.

WDW total attendance '12: 48.51M
WDW total attendance '13: 50.12M
Percentage change: 3.3%

UO total attendance '12: 14.09M
UO total attendance '13: 15.20M
Percentage change: 7.9%

A faster growth rate at UO in a year without a new Potter opening probably does annoy the folks at TDO. Or, at least, it should. I never would have guessed that a Spidey clone skinned to the Transformers and a Simpsons-based food court would draw that well.

 

[Lavitz]

Surprised from this thread.

1. Tokyo Disneyland only about 1 million away from MK, plus they have great growth. At this rate they'll overtake MK next year or two as the most visited park in the world.

2. Canada's Wonderland is 14th with 3.5 million, yet is only open 3.5-4 months a year. If it could be open year round I'm guessing attendance would be close to double, matching or beating most Universal Orlando parks. This really makes me wonder how busy Universal parks are, having never been myself.

For anyone who's been to a WDW and a Universal park on the same day, are crowds/line ups pretty much at the same level when you go?

 

[surferdave]

Time for some remedial math.

Hat Makers probably don't get a lot of math. It may be an initial lesson rather than remediation.

 

[NYDisGuy]

USO's market share is growing, but not tremendously, and it is not having much impact at all on WDW. Combine Disney's 4 gates vs. USO's two and you find:

Market share 2012:
Disney = 71.3%
Universal=20.8%

Market share 2013:
Disney = 71.2%
Universal= 21.6%

A rising tide lifts all boats (except for the S.S.Seaworld, it appears), and the tide of tourist dollars is definitely going up.

Market Share 2009: (year before HP)
Disney = 74.9%
UO= 16%

These may seem like small percentages but 5% in 5 years is a TON of money for Disney to lose out on. And Diagon Alley will once again bring this number even closer. Universal has stated that they have no plans to become the next Disney but they want to gain as much share as their property allows. They are doing a really good job of it. Imagine what they can do with the next series of Rowling movies.

 

[JimmyV]

USO's market share has been increasing and will continue to do so but is way, way below WDW's and will continue to do so for a long time.

WARNING: Assumptions built on assumptions ahead.

When looking at market share, "unique visitors" is a very important number, and the tables in the report don't tell us that. But we can probably assume that visitors to WDW turn the turnstiles at the MK more times during a week-long vacation than they do at AK. In fact, AK may be a "once per vacation" park. So using that number, WDW may be drawing around 10.2 million people per year. Those 10 million people might be going to the MK on average 1.8 times per vacation, and AK once per vacation, accounting for the turnstile differences between the parks. And perhaps US is a "once per vacation" park as well, and it is drawing around 7 million per year. So in comparing unique visitors, maybe WDW is drawing around 10 million to US's 7 million. WDW wins, but the difference might not be as great as it seems.

But also, many (most?) of the people at one company's park are the same people who go to the other company's park. This isn't like Coke vs. Pepsi at the grocery store. A small percentage of people might buy a 2 liter bottle of Coke and a 2 liter bottle of Pepsi during the same store visit. But most choose one or the other. If 10 million people buy Coke and 7 million people buy Pepsi, that means there are probably close to 17 million cola buyers. But that is not the way Central Florida works. Since there is a lot of cross-over, if US grows in numbers, then WDW probably does too. And vice versa. A clear case of a rising tide raising all boats.

 

[NavyDad]

Market Share 2009: (year before HP)
Disney = 74.9%
UO= 16%

These may seem like small percentages but 5% in 5 years is a TON of money for Disney to lose out on. And Diagon Alley will once again bring this number even closer. Universal has stated that they have no plans to become the next Disney but they want to gain as much share as their property allows. They are doing a really good job of it. Imagine what they can do with the next series of Rowling movies.

I'm just not sure that equates to LOSING money. The market share has shifted 5% but the overall market has also increased.

Both properties attendance has risen each year and Disney's profits have continued to rise each year as well.

As I mentioned in an earlier post I believe the buzz around WWoHP has increased travel to the Orlando area and there is a spill-over effect for the entire area including WDW.

Disney hasn't really shown a reaction or a need to compete and keep up with this expansion. Most of their efforts have been to change how customers behave at their parks and not to draw more to the parks overall. That's what is so funny about everyone yapping about the supposed arms race between USO and WDW - there really is not. Both properties have completely different goals and are playing completely different games.

WDW is HUGE in every way and they need to manage their expansion and guest behavior in a completely different way to maximize profitability. Essentially they are playing the long game.

USO is much smaller and needs to grow in a hurry right now to accomplish what they want. They need to strik while the iron is hot to better leverage a really popular brand that has been around less than 20 years (HP). They are not as worried about managing guest behavior and have less experience with it. As they continue to grow at a fast pace they at some point need to pause and re-adjust their models as they approach the size and scale of WDW. After a certain threshold they will either need to build an entirely new park or they will need to completely change their crowd/queue management model (Express Pass) and as the parks get more crowded they will have to spend more time and resources on staff and other guest support areas. Right now they are playing the short game at a very fast pace but at some point I think you will see them slow down and hit the "reset" button.....


Either way... on a personal note I am excited about the future of both parks. Just trying to work out ways I can spend MORE time in Orlando each trip!

 

[NavyDad]

WARNING: Assumptions built on assumptions ahead.

When looking at market share, "unique visitors" is a very important number, and the tables in the report don't tell us that. But we can probably assume that visitors to WDW turn the turnstiles at the MK more times during a week-long vacation than they do at AK. In fact, AK may be a "once per vacation" park. So using that number, WDW may be drawing around 10.2 million people per year. Those 10 million people might be going to the MK on average 1.8 times per vacation, and AK once per vacation, accounting for the turnstile differences between the parks. And perhaps US is a "once per vacation" park as well, and it is drawing around 7 million per year. So in comparing unique visitors, maybe WDW is drawing around 10 million to US's 7 million. WDW wins, but the difference might not be as great as it seems.

But also, many (most?) of the people at one company's park are the same people who go to the other company's park. This isn't like Coke vs. Pepsi at the grocery store. A small percentage of people might buy a 2 liter bottle of Coke and a 2 liter bottle of Pepsi during the same store visit. But most choose one or the other. If 10 million people buy Coke and 7 million people buy Pepsi, that means there are probably close to 17 million cola buyers. But that is not the way Central Florida works. Since there is a lot of cross-over, if US grows in numbers, then WDW probably does too. And vice versa. A clear case of a rising tide raising all boats.

OK - I have more assumptions based on assumptions....

I get what you are saying on unique visitors but "vacation days per unique visitor' might make a better comparison. I am going to assume the average stay at WDW is longer than an average stay at UO (both on-site and off-site)

......not sure if those numbers are available somewhere but I'm going to guess it's somewhere in the range of 4.5 days (WDW) to 2.5 days (UO).

 

[Brian Noble]

I get what you are saying on unique visitors but "vacation days per unique visitor' might make a better comparison.

This is a number used in the industry, called "Visits per guest". There's a nice summary of some of these metrics from from a presentation that Disney did for investors about a decade ago:

http://www.laughingplace.com/news-id507040.asp

 

[mrsbicewdw]

People like to make a big deal about the competition between these two but I'm not 100% convinced that Disney is at all concerned about USO growth.

I have to agree with this. I worked in both theme parks/resorts. In my experience people made the trip to Orlando for Disney. In fact, you would be surprised how many visitors don't even know Universal isn't owned by Disney! I got asked daily, no joke, "So where is Mickey and the castle?" when I worked at Universal. I never got the opposite question at Disney... People are still coming to Orlando mainly to the Mouse and I don't see that changing any time soon.