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https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...ey-comcast-deal-scenario-analysts-1235633154/
Disney and Comcast’s Hulu Staredown Nears End: Who Wins on the Price Tag?

Starting on Nov. 1, an option to begin the deal process for the 33 percent stake in the streaming platform — expected to be worth north of $9 billion — can be triggered.
October 31, 2023 10:27am PDT
by Georg Szalai

Disney and Comcast could finally be heading toward a deal to make the former the 100 percent owner of streaming service Hulu, and Wall Street analysts are tallying up possible scenarios. It is widely expected that an option to start the deal process will be triggered soon after that becomes possible on Wednesday, Nov. 1.

After all, in early September, the two sector giants amended a previous agreement, moving up the timing for when they can use put and call options from January 2024 to November. The options allow Comcast, which owns a 33 percent stake in Hulu, to force Disney to buy it out and/or Disney to require Comcast to sell the minority stake. The value of the streamer — which has 48 million paid subscribers and higher average monthly revenue per user than Disney+ — will be assessed as of Sept. 30.

The main question is the price Disney will have to pay, which has been an overhang for the Bob Iger-led company’s shares.

In their previous pact, the Hollywood conglomerates set a floor value of $27.5 billion for Hulu, which would mean Disney paying $9 billion-plus for Comcast’s stake. However, Comcast executives have signaled they expect the value to have risen since then. “The company is way more valuable today than it was then,” Comcast chairman and CEO Brian Roberts told an investor conference in September.

To help the two owners find an agreement on a price tag, each company has hired an investment bank to examine the streamer’s books and value Hulu. If the two valuations are within 10 percent of each other, the average of the two will be the price tag for Hulu. If there’s not an agreement between Comcast and Disney, a third investment bank will have to make a third determination. In that case, the Hulu price tag will be calculated as the average of the two determinations that are closest in value to each other.

Wall Street experts have started to weigh in with their Hulu deal expectations and what a transaction would mean for each sector giant.

Citi analyst Jason Bazinet suggested in an Oct. 26 Disney report that the company’s various deals being considered by Iger could see possible asset sales — including its India business and linear TV assets — pay for the takeover of full control of Hulu. “Given Disney’s agreement with Comcast, the firm is set to gain full ownership of Hulu by early 2024,” he wrote. “Our bull case implies Disney would make around (a) $9.1 billion payment, while our bear case implies about (a) $19 billion payment.”

Bazinet also touched on recent chatter that the entertainment powerhouse could look to sell a controlling stake in its India business, estimating it could be valued at about $10 billion. Assuming that Disney will retain a 30 percent stake, such a sale would bring in around $7 billion, according to the analyst.

In addition, the Citi expert estimated that Disney’s ABC network and TV stations, which Iger has said he could offload, could fetch a price tag of about $6.5 billion.

Concluded Bazinet: “Under most scenarios, the potential proceeds from a sale of the India assets and ABC are likely to offset the Hulu payment. However, if third parties ascribe a very high value to Hulu, Disney may need to use some of its existing cash to acquire Hulu.”

What does this mean for Disney shares? “Under most scenarios, we do not see much movement in Disney’s equity value from these three potential transactions,” Bazinet said. “However, a robust Hulu value we think could put modest pressure on Disney’s equity. We note, however, our analysis excludes any value from potential synergies stemming from full ownership of Hulu.”

Meanwhile, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon entitled his Oct. 25 report “Hulu auction — the range of outcomes is narrow.” In it, he detailed investor worries and estimates for Hulu and why he decided to use the word “auction” in his discussion.

“We believe there’s an overhang on Disney’s stock price due to the risk that Disney may have to pay a ransom amount to gain full control of Hulu,” he wrote of investor concerns.

“The debate is not centered on the standalone value of Hulu. Our valuation range is $32 billion-$36 billion, and we’ve encountered minimal pushback from investors,” Yoon explained. “The debate revolves around whether Disney should pay a premium on top of the standalone valuation, and the common argument is that Disney already owns 67 percent of Hulu and should not pay a premium for the remaining minority stake.”

That said, the expert noted that Comcast and Disney, in recent regulatory filings detailing the process to establish Hulu’s price tag for a deal, used slightly different language. Disney’s disclosure language did not mention a premium, whereas Comcast included a clause mentioning “a sale process designed to maximize equity value, which sale process may include a sale by auction and/or sealed bid process.”

What does that mean for a Disney-Comcast deal for Hulu? “What is included in the winning bid of an auction? Premium over other bidders,” Bernstein’s Yoon wrote. “Hence, we believe the outcome is going to be around $40 billion (assumes 20-30 percent premium to the lower end of standalone valuation range).”

The analyst also outlined the impact on Disney’s stock. “If we’re right, then the impact is less than 3 percent of equity as of market close (on Oct. 24). If we’re wrong – no premium, well, that’s even better news for Disney,” Yoon highlighted. “Either way, the modest overhang on the stock should be alleviated as the process unfolds, providing a positive catalyst, particularly if coupled with management’s guidance on the future synergies in both operations and revenue from the combined assets.”

In a September report, Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall argued that “a consummation of the deal is constructive to both buyer and seller.”

Commenting on the impact of a Hulu transaction to Comcast, he wrote: “The potential range to Hulu’s assessed enterprise value, net of tax, can add nicely to Comcast’s (stock) buyback but is still relatively modest versus its $185 billion market cap, i.e. Hulu is not a huge catalyst for Comcast.”

How about Disney? “The Hulu put value has been a bigger issue for Disney investors as it weighs on the balance sheet amidst direct-to-consumer losses and linear declines,” Cahall explained. “We also think Disney’s ultimate streaming strategies are held back as long as Comcast owns its third, hence the interest in accelerating the timing.”

He also commented on the likely fallout from a transaction. “While there’s a valuation at which the Hulu put is a downside to Disney, we see the conclusion as removing an overhang,” the Wells Fargo analyst said. “We also estimated $1 billion in selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) synergies, so Hulu should help drive direct-to-consumer operating income improvement.”
What do we think is most likely to happen at the end? Will Disney be able to get Hulu?
 
https://deadline.com/2023/10/netflix-disney-taiwan-premium-vod-growth-1235589268/

Taiwan’s Premium VOD Subscriptions Top 5.8M In Q3; Netflix & Disney Driving Growth, Report Says
By Liz Shackleton - Contributing Editor, Asia
October 31, 2023 11:44pm PDT

Taiwan saw significant premium VOD subscriber and engagement growth in the third quarter of 2023, adding 315,000 net new SVOD subs to reach a total of 5.8 million subscriptions, according to a report by Media Partners Asia.

The report found that premium VOD engagement and subscriptions in Taiwan were up 6% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2023, with the premium VOD category capturing 20% of total time spent on online video.

In the SVOD space, Netflix with a 21% market share and Disney+ with a 17% market share, were clear leaders in an otherwise fragmented landscape where over a dozen other local platforms compete with under 10% subscriber market share.

Local players include MyVideo and FriDay each with 9% market share, Hami Video with 7% and iQiyi Taiwan, the local arm of the mainland Chinese streamer, with 6%.

However, YouTube maintains leadership of the online video market overall with 67% of total online video viewership, though share was down 3 points as TikTok (12% of viewership) gained traction in the market.

MPA executive director Vivek Couto said: “Taiwan’s strong quarter was led by Disney+’s impactful marketing efforts and hit Korean superhero drama Moving, as well as organic subscriber growth from Netflix’s international offering and measures to reduce account sharing.

“The two platforms are key contributors to Taiwan’s steady annual subscriber growth of one million, returning strong revenue growth of 25% year-on-year in the first nine months of 2023. Overall, Asian content categories, particularly Chinese and Korean dramas, dominate demand, capturing 85% of premium VOD viewership in Q3 2023.”
 
https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/return-activist-investor-nelson-peltz-131500124.html

The Return of Activist Investor Nelson Peltz, the ‘Major Thorn’ in Disney’s Side
Lucas Manfredi
Wed, November 1, 2023 at 8:15 AM CDT

After calling off a proxy fight with Disney in February, activist investor Nelson Peltz is back with a renewed push for a seat on the company’s board — with some added firepower from former Marvel Entertainment chairman Ike Perlmutter.

Peltz and his firm Trian Fund Management previously called on Disney leadership to make changes to its corporate governance, strategy and operations and capital allocation. Specific asks have included developing a succession plan and aligning compensation with performance, cutting costs and reinstating Disney’s dividend by fiscal year 2025.

The latest challenge from Peltz and Perlmutter comes as Disney CEO Bob Iger continues to face a myriad of challenges, including a declining linear business and an unprofitable streaming platform. Iger also is engaged in a search for both a successor and permanent chief financial officer. The House of Mouse has embarked on a massive cost-cutting initiative and is even considering selling off assets. But efforts thus far have not given the company’s stock the boost that Peltz and Perlmutter have been hoping for.

Disney shares closed at $81.59 apiece on Tuesday, down 8.2% year to date and 23% lower over the past year, but above its 52-week low of $78.73 per share

Disney shares closed at $81.59 apiece on Tuesday, down 8.2% year to date and 23% lower over the past year, but above its 52-week low of $78.73 per share

Some analysts and academics told TheWrap that Iger and Disney’s initiatives deserve more time to bear fruit, but others believe Peltz could be just what Disney needs to push its leadership to produce a better return for shareholders in the short-term. During the last proxy fight, Disney notably touted a more than five-fold shareholder return during Iger’s previous 15-year tenure and said that Peltz did not understand the company’s businesses and lacked “the perspective and experience to contribute to the objective of delivering shareholder value in a rapidly shifting media ecosystem.”

“Disney has been its own worst enemy for years,” Keith Fitz-Gerald, a private investor and the founder and principal analyst of the market research firm Fitz-Gerald Group told TheWrap. “Iger’s on the right track but I think he’s probably nowhere near as aggressive as Peltz will be when it comes to returning to prowess.”

Dr. Ann Murphy, a business professor at Stevens Institute of Technology, expects Peltz to “pressure Iger to pump the brakes on some of his long-term initiatives and pursue short-time strategies that can deliver returns for shareholders.” She told TheWrap that Peltz’s return isn’t a surprise given Disney’s “abysmal stock performance.”

Disney shares closed at $81.59 apiece on Tuesday, down 8.2% year to date and 23% lower over the past year, but above its 52-week low of $78.73 per share.

When Disney reports its fourth quarter earnings on Nov. 8, Iger either needs to convince Wall Street that his core media business can grow faster or cut more costs, Laura Martin, Needham & Company senior entertainment and internet analyst, told TheWrap.

“Nelson Peltz is going to be focused on more cost cutting, which is about saying no to more things in the Disney empire that aren’t strategic and shutting them down even though it might be painful,” she said. “If Peltz is there hammering away, Iger has high cover to do it.”

Martin believes that Peltz will be a “more demanding steward of public shareholder capital” than Disney’s current board and that Perlmutter’s backing only makes him a “more formidable force to listen to.”

Perlmutter Pressure​

When combined with Perlmutter’s shares, Peltz and Trian have amassed about 33 million Disney shares (about 1.8% of the company’s total outstanding shares), which were valued at roughly $2.5 billion as of Tuesday, an individual familiar with the matter told TheWrap. That gives Peltz nearly four times as many shares to vote than he had during his last push. Peltz and Trian plan to use the stake to push for multiple board seats in an effort to increase accountability, the person said.

Disney’s board members, excluding Iger, collectively own less than $15 million worth of stock in the company, according to FactSet. Iger owns around $15 million in shares and has sold much of the stock he has received over the past two decades, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The 80-year-old activist investor, who co-founded Trian in 2005 with Peter May and Edward Garden, currently serves as the non-executive chairman of The Wendy’s Company and a director of Unilever PLC and Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. Other companies where Peltz has previously served as a board member include Janus Henderson Group plc, Invesco Ltd., Procter & Gamble, Sysco Corporation, Legg Mason, Inc. and Mondelez International.

Meanwhile, Perlmutter, the former chairman of Marvel Entertainment, notably butted heads with Iger and Marvel Studios president Kevin Feige and aided Peltz in his last proxy fight. Disney laid off Perlmutter in March as part of a broader staff cutback. At the time, he argued in an interview with The Wall Street Journal that the termination was based on “fundamental differences in business between my thinking and Disney leadership, because I care about return on investment.”

In a statement shared with TheWrap on Monday, Perlmutter said he has entrusted voting control of his Disney stake to Peltz and Trian because he believes the firm is a “constructive voice” for shareholders that can help Disney leadership “better navigate the company’s challenges and opportunities,” citing their “strong operating and strategic capabilities.”

He added: “As someone with a large economic interest in Disney’s success, I can no longer watch the business underachieve its great potential.”

Perlmutter, who received a stake in Disney following the company’s 2009 acquisition of Marvel, said he has not sold any stock and has been adding to his holdings over the years. By working with Peltz, Perlmutter hopes to increase the value of his Disney holdings so that he and his wife Laura can direct more funds to leading hospitals, medical research institutions and other charities where they intend to leave the vast majority of their wealth. (The pair have been active donors to New York University’s Langone Medical Center, according to the Wall Street Journal.)

If Peltz doesn’t get what he wants, he can nominate directors to be put up for a shareholder vote at Disney’s next annual meeting. The nomination window for new board members opens on Dec. 5 and runs until Jan. 4, according to Disney’s latest proxy statement. Peltz and Trian are not asking Disney to give Perlmutter a seat on the board nor to rehire him, the individual familiar told TheWrap.

Can Peltz Rescue Disney Stock?​

Ross Gerber, the CEO of wealth and investment firm Gerber Kawasaki Management is “not convinced that switching board members per se” is going to rescue Disney’s stock. He added that the moves carried out by Iger and former Disney executives and Candle Media co-CEOs Kevin Mayer and Tom Staggs on Disney’s linear and streaming strategy thus far have benefitted shareholders.

Since Peltz’s last proxy fight, Disney has extended Iger’s contract through 2026 and embarked on a plan to cut $5.5 billion in costs, including laying off 7,000 employees (3% of its global workforce), removing content from its streaming platforms and producing a lower volume of content. In the third quarter of 2023, Disney’s direct-to-consumer division saw revenue increase 9% year over year to $5.5 billion and its operating loss narrow to $512 million from $1.1 billion a year ago. Executives expect Disney+ to reach profitability in fiscal year 2024.

As someone with a large economic interest in Disney’s success, I can no longer watch the business underachieve its great potential.
Ike Perlmutter, former Marvel Entertainment chairman
Iger also has been taking an “expansive” assessment of the company’s media portfolio, expressing a willingness to potentially offload Disney’s linear television networks and Star India business to the right buyer. The company is also searching for a strategic partner to help turn ESPN into a fully direct-to-consumer offering and plans to buy out Comcast’s minority stake in Hulu under a 2019 agreement and plans to merge the service with Disney+ under one app offering by the end of the year.

During the company’s third quarter earnings call, Iger said that the company was on track to meet or exceed its cost-cutting goal and said Disney would trim its content budget for fiscal 2023 by $3 billion to about $27 billion in total spending, in part due to the SAG-AFTRA and Writers’ Guild of America strikes. Iger noted also that Disney was “actively exploring” ways to crack down on password sharing and plans to “roll out tactics to drive monetization sometime in 2024.” Elsewhere, Disney plans to spend $60 billion on a theme parks expansion over the next decade.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, CEO of the Chief Executive Leadership Institute at the Yale School of Management and a longtime critic of Peltz, says that Iger’s turnaround effort has not been given enough time to take effect.

“A turnaround CEO needs two to 2.5 years to complete the job and a distraction in the middle of it is just a time-consuming diversion,” Sonnenfeld told TheWrap. “Iger is very strategic. He’s going to get top dollar for anything he sells and selling something in distress or in a rush destroys your negotiating leverage and shareholder value, not to mention it’s just chaotic and disruptive to the enterprise.”

In January, Sonnenfeld and CELI research director Steven Tian released an analysis during Peltz’s last proxy fight which found that more than half of the companies he and his firm targeted underperformed the S&P 500, in both share price and total shareholder returns, while he was on their boards. Sonnenfeld and Tian also pointed out that Peltz has been downsizing after shuttering a fund in the United Kingdom following a campaign from activist investors.

“Where’s the track record to say that he adds value?,” Sonnenfeld said. “He adds distraction like a dripping faucet.”

Regardless of whether Peltz’s push is successful, Murphy believes he will remain a “major thorn” in Disney’s side throughout the remainder of Iger’s tenure.

“It is up in the air if this will get resolved with or without a proxy fight, but either way, it is likely that at least Peltz will get a board seat,” she said. And with Iger scheduled to leave Disney in 2026, “Peltz may also influence Disney’s direction by having sway over who becomes Iger’s replacement.”

Representatives for Peltz and Disney declined to comment.
 

Deep dive into Marvel issues in this article, not many surprises:

- They don’t know what to do with Jonathan Majors’ issues
- Worries that they’re overdoing and overcomplicating it with all the D+ series
- VFX is stretched thin with too much on their plate, quality is decreasing
- Ant Man 3 wasn’t good, had VFX issues (no comment, haven’t seen it)
- Captain Marvel 2 might not be good either
- Feige also has too much on his plate and as a result isn’t able to fix problems that he used to be able to get ahead of
- Yes, they talk about budgets too
- Blade 3 might cost under 100 mil
- But they also talk about bringing back RDJ for an Avengers movie, which would cost a ton of money. Maybe a better investment though 🤷
 
Deep dive into Marvel issues in this article, not many surprises:

- They don’t know what to do with Jonathan Majors’ issues
- Worries that they’re overdoing and overcomplicating it with all the D+ series
- VFX is stretched thin with too much on their plate, quality is decreasing
- Ant Man 3 wasn’t good, had VFX issues (no comment, haven’t seen it)
- Captain Marvel 2 might not be good either
- Feige also has too much on his plate and as a result isn’t able to fix problems that he used to be able to get ahead of
- Yes, they talk about budgets too
- Blade 3 might cost under 100 mil
- But they also talk about bringing back RDJ for an Avengers movie, which would cost a ton of money. Maybe a better investment though 🤷
I was wondering what had DIS knocked down this morning, while the rest of the market was up. Recently, DIS has tracked in sympathy with the major indices. Likely this article was the culprit.

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS?p=DIS
80.67-0.92 (-1.13%)
As of 12:48PM EDT. Market open.
 
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disneys-espn-could-valued-24-190430888.html

Disney's ESPN could be valued at $24 billion, likely buyers include Apple, Verizon - BofA
Reuters
Wed, November 1, 2023 at 2:04 PM CDT

(Reuters) - Walt Disney's ESPN sports network could secure an enterprise value of $24 billion and attract investment interest from sports leagues, tech firms like Apple and telecom majors including Verizon, according to BofA Global Research.

In a bid to lure an outside investor, the media giant last month disclosed the financials of ESPN that revealed declining sales and profit at the network considered to be the crown jewel of its traditional TV business.

CEO Bob Iger has said Disney wants to keep ESPN and will try to create a streaming app for it by either forming a joint venture or finding a buyer for a minority stake in the network.

That means a 36% interest in ESPN would be up for sale, assuming Disney intends to retain a 51% majority interest and accounting for media company Hearst's 20% stake, BofA analysts led by Jessica Reif Ehrlich wrote in a note published Wednesday.

Interested parties could include leagues like the National Football League and the National Basketball Association, newcomers like Apple and Amazon.com, which are jostling to get into live sports, and distributors like Verizon and Comcast, the note said.

Disney would gain a lot from the deal as more capital would mean ESPN would be able to strengthen its offerings, keep the option of a spin-off open and help the network focus on high-growth streaming, the brokerage said.

Rising cord-cutting has hit the linear television business, and acquiring sports rights has become an increasingly expensive affair, with future sports rights expected to be north of $69 billion.

Benefits to prospective buyers, however, appear "nebulous", BofA said.

"ESPN is still a strong business and a premier brand, but it sits at the nexus of possible major business transformation. Transitions have historically proven difficult and typically not conducive to significant growth," it added.
 
Variety article regarding Marvel Studios provides, among other things, that She Hulk cost $25 Million / episode? Yikes!

https://variety.com/2023/film/featu...problem-the-marvels-reshoots-kang-1235774940/
For fear of giving away my ancientness to all you young whippersnappers, I clearly remember the fist TV show to go over $1M (yes, that is the measly sum of one million dollars) per episode - the original Battlestar Galactica, late 70's, and coincidentally, it was ABC funding that outrageous sum back then. And even more Disney tie-ins, old George Lucus sued the show for ripping off elements of Star Wars. Sorry to open old wounds Obi. 😁
 
For fear of giving away my ancientness to all you young whippersnappers, I clearly remember the fist TV show to go over $1M (yes, that is the measly sum of one million dollars) per episode - the original Battlestar Galactica, late 70's, and coincidentally, it was ABC funding that outrageous sum back then. And even more Disney tie-ins, old George Lucus sued the show for ripping off elements of Star Wars. Sorry to open old wounds Obi. 😁

I will take Templeton Peck / Face over Lady Bo-Katan Kryze any day of the week and twice on Sundays as my Lt. Starbuck. :)
 
For fear of giving away my ancientness to all you young whippersnappers, I clearly remember the fist TV show to go over $1M (yes, that is the measly sum of one million dollars) per episode - the original Battlestar Galactica, late 70's, and coincidentally, it was ABC funding that outrageous sum back then. And even more Disney tie-ins, old George Lucus sued the show for ripping off elements of Star Wars. Sorry to open old wounds Obi. 😁
Equivalent to about $4.92 million in today's dollars. Kind of a hobby with me to compare old/new money values, since I watch a good bit of old movies and TV.

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=1000000&year1=197801&year2=202309
 
Lower than expected, yes?
Well, maybe. Looks like the final sale price is yet to be determined.

Under the appraisal process agreed to by Disney and Comcast, Hulu’s equity fair value will be assessed as of September 30, 2023, and if the value is ultimately determined to be greater than the guaranteed floor value, Disney will pay NBCU its percentage of the difference between the equity fair value and the guaranteed floor value. While the timing of the appraisal process is uncertain, we anticipate it should be completed during the 2024 calendar year.
 
Hold on. The details of Disney's release say that the financial details have not been finalized and that Disney expects to pay $8.61B. Could be more. I assume Disney stating the price of $8.61B means that will be close.
 
Hold on. The details of Disney's release say that the financial details have not been finalized and that Disney expects to pay $8.61B. Could be more. I assume Disney stating the price of $8.61B means that will be close.
Yeah looks like when a number is finally set it will be 31.3% of whatever determined value will go to Comcast.

Disney obviously pushing more towards the floor and Comcast reaching for the stars. Third investment bank involvement seems likely.
 
Yeah looks like when a number is finally set it will be 31.3% of whatever determined value will go to Comcast.

Disney obviously pushing more towards the floor and Comcast reaching for the stars. Third investment bank involvement seems likely.
Basically, this was Disney telling the world they are buying Hulu.
 












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