DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

What's a few billion here or there:


https://seekingalpha.com/article/4642613-comcast-hulus-45b-gold-mine-awaits

Comcast: Hulu's $45B Gold Mine Awaits​

Oct. 23, 2023 11:11 AM ETComcast Corporation (CMCSA)DIS, NFLX15 Comments

Juxtaposed Ideas
8.39K Followers

Summary​

• CMCSA has started to play coy, with the Hulu option deal brought forward to September 2023 against the original timeline of January 2024.
• The management drummed up Mr. Market's interest in the deal, by guiding a $30B synergy/ churn benefit on top of Hulu's intrinsic value.
• Based on our conservative projection, we believe that Hulu may be valued at $45B with an FWD EV/ Revenue valuation of 4x, thanks to its profitable growth trend.
• The additional liquidity may then allow CMCSA to either deleverage its balance sheet and/ or pursue innovation/ growth across its theme parks/ connectivity business.
• The CMCSA stock remains a Buy here, thanks to its dual pronged prospects through capital appreciation and dividend income.

We previously covered Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) in July 2023, discussing its excellent prospects through the year, thanks to the Mario movie's blockbuster performance, further aided by the Universal theme parks already approaching pre-pandemic attendance levels.

While the elevated interest rate environment might be a temporal headwind, we had rated the stock as a Buy then, thanks to its profitable growth investment thesis.

In this article, we will be discussing CMCSA's 33% stake in Disney's (DIS) Hulu. We believe that things are drastically different now, with the former likely holding on to a gold mine, since Hulu may be worth more than the supposed sum previously determined in 2019.

Hulu May Be A Gold Mine For CMCSA​

For context, the option for the Hulu deal was previously set for January 2024, which has now been brought forward to September 30, 2023, by both parties. Most importantly, a floor was also determined at $27.5B back in 2019, implying that CMCSA's 33% stake was valued at $9.07B.

Investors might also want to note that this number implied an embedded growth premium compared to the previous valuation of $15B in April 2019, based on the sale of AT&T's (T) 9.5% stake for $1.43B.

For now, it appears that DIS may have to shell out a lot more indeed since the D2C market has boomed post-pandemic with many other streaming companies similarly expanding in valuations.

For example, the obvious leader in the global streaming market, Netflix (NFLX), has grown its Market Capitalization by +25.9%, from $141.80B at the end of 2019 to $178.57B at the time of writing.

We also believe that CMCSA's sale is more likely to happen than not, based on DIS' intent to "offer a one-app experience domestically that incorporates our Hulu content via Disney+" by the end of 2023.

For now, investors must note that DIS has reported an immense growth in the overall Hulu global subscriber base from 25.2M in March 2019 to 48.3M by June 2023, up by +23.1M over the past four years, expanding at an impressive CAGR of +17.6%.

This is on top of the increased average monthly revenue per paid subscriber for Hulu's SVOD-only members by -2.6% from $12.73 to $12.39, and Hulu's Live TV+SVOD by +74.8% from $52.58 to $91.80 over the same time frame.

Based on these numbers, we believe that Hulu has brought an excellent estimated growth in annualized revenues from $4.8B in March 2019 to $11.27B in June 2023 (+4.3% from FY2022 levels of $10.8B), expanding an impressive CAGR of +23.79%.

Based on the impressive top-line expansion thus far, we believe that Hulu on its own deserves a growth premium, compared to the sector median FWD EV/ Revenues of 1.71x, CMCSA's 2.27x, and DIS' 2.25x.

We posit that Hulu may likely be rated higher than NFLX's 5.57x, based on the former's top-line expansion at a CAGR of +23.79%, as discussed above, compared to the latter at +13.7% between FY2019 and FY2022.

Even if we are to be assigned a more conservative FWD EV/ Revenue valuation of 4x, Hulu may potentially be valued at $45B, with CMCSA's 33% stake coming in at approximately $15B.

Naturally, it remains to be seen how the negotiations may be moving forward, with the price tag potentially immense, based on the CEO of CMCSA, Brian Roberts' commentary in the recent Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference:

"The value of the bundle, we've seen Hulu with package with Disney and with ESPN+, you'd be able to stay in that bundle. That reduces churn like half for Disney and others. So that value goes with it. Just that piece of the synergy and the churn benefit could be worth $30 billion. And that's before you ascribe any value to the actual Hulu." (Seeking Alpha).

Either way, we believe that the previous $27.5B valuation for Hulu is outdated, with the new number likely to be astounding.

Now what will the CMCSA's management do with the additional liquidity?

While our $15B projection may be a drop in the bucket, compared to its immense long-term debts of $94.97B in FQ2'23 (inline QoQ/ -1.7% YoY), the sum may still help the management to deleverage part of its balance sheet at these times of elevated interest rates.

For example, CMCSA reported a growing annualized interest expense of $3.99B by FQ2'23 (-1% QoQ/ +3% YoY), thanks to the higher weighted-average interest rates, negating its rich annualized adj. EBITDA generation of $40.96B (+8.8% QoQ/ +4.2% YoY).

Otherwise, the company has the option of pursuing innovation and growth, with the management already planning to expand its theme park footprints in Orlando, Las Vegas, and Texas through 2026.

This is on top of the intensified capex for the Connectivity business, which comprises the bulk of the media company's top lines at 66.7% (-1 points YoY) and bottom lines at 81.4% (+0.1 points YoY) in the latest quarter.

As a result of its multiple top and bottom line growth drivers, we believe CMCSA remains well poised for outperformance moving forward, significantly aided by the extra liquidity from the Hulu deal.

So, Is CMCSA Stock A Buy, Sell, or Hold?​

The Consensus Forward Estimates​

Tikr Terminal


For now, the consensus estimates that CMCSA may still generate a decent top and bottom line growth at a CAGR of +0.4% and +8.1% through FY2025, though moderate compared to its historical CAGR of +7.1% and +13.1% between FY2016 and FY2022, respectively.

CMCSA Valuations​

Seeking Alpha


Perhaps this explains why the CMCSA stock trades an impacted FWD valuation compared to its 5Y mean and the sector median, with the pessimism already baked in.

Then again, we believe that the correction has been overly done since the company is still expected to expand its adj EBITDA margins and EPS despite the stagnant top-line.

The improved profitability has directly contributed to CMCSA's 5Y Dividend Growth Rate of +9.40%, with its payout likely remaining safe at a stable dividend coverage ratio of 3.26x, compared to the sector median of +2.02% and 2.13x, respectively.

While the CMCSA management does not offer any forward guidance, based on its annualized H1'23 adj EPS of $4.10 (+9.6% YoY) and its FWD P/E of 11.40x, it appears that the stock is trading below its fair value of $46.74.

Depending on individual investor's conviction and dollar cost averages, they may want to wait for CMCSA's upcoming FQ3'23 earnings call on October 26, 2023, with the consensus estimating revenues of $29.72B (-2.5% QoQ/ -0.5% YoY) and adj EPS of $0.95 (-15.9% QoQ/ -1% YoY).

Then again, the management has had a long track record of beating consensus estimates for thirteen consecutive earnings calls, with the upcoming call likely to be similar, based on the exemplary H1'23 double beats thus far.

CMCSA 5Y Stock Price​

TradingView


The CMCSA stock's recent pullback has also triggered an attractive upside potential of +22% from current levels to our long-term price target of $52.32, based on the consensus FY2025 adj EPS estimates of $4.59.

As a result of the attractive dual-pronged prospects through capital appreciation and dividend income, we continue to rate the CMCSA stock as a Buy here.

Do not miss this pullback.

 

[RivShore]

Summary of the Bloomberg article...at least the headline makes it clear that not everyone needs to spend $40k. LOL

Dinner with Cinderella, princess makeovers and custom lightsabers: How the rich spend $40K on a week at Disney​

https://nypost.com/2023/10/26/business/how-the-rich-spend-40k-on-a-week-at-disney/

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...gs-disney-dispute-customer-losses-1235629754/

Charter Loses 320,000 Video Customers in Q3, Citing Disney Carriage Dispute

Disney's channels, including ESPN, ABC and FX, went dark for Charter customers in September; Charter's CFO says the company lost less customers than expected.

by Alex Weprin
October 27, 2023 4:26am PDT

Charter Communications, the cable giant that owns the Spectrum TV brand, lost 320,000 video customers in Q3, disclosing the impact of the company’s high-profile carriage dispute with The Walt Disney Co.

Charter noted that it had lost only 211,000 video customers a year earlier (and around 200,000 in the first two quarters of this year) and that the 6 percent decline was “partly driven by video disconnects related to the temporary loss of Disney programming in early September.”

Charter’s CFO Jessica Fischer said that the company lost somewhere around 100,000 more subscribers than it would have otherwise had the dispute not happened.

“The overall impact to customer relationships was less than we expected, facilitated in part by the wide availability of over-the-top alternatives,” Fisher said on the earnings call.

Disney’s channels went dark in the middle of the U.S. Open tennis tournament and with the NFL season about to kick off. Charter CEO Chris Winfrey framed the dispute at the time as a make-or-break moment.

“We’re on the edge of a precipice. We’re either moving forward with a new collaborative video model, or we’re moving on,” Winfrey said at the time. “This is not a typical carriage dispute. It’s significant for Charter, and we think it’s even more significant for programmers and the broader video ecosystem.”

Ultimately, after a couple of weeks, the companies reached a new deal, one that will see Disney+ bundled into Charter’s core video offering, but will also see the removal of a number of Disney’s cable channels, including Freeform, Disney Junior and Disney XD.

Dana Walden, co-chair of Disney’s entertainment division, acknowledged that the company “made some trade-offs” in the dispute, but argued that the deal will lead to the best outcome for the company by giving it a glide path to a profitable streaming business.

And Winfrey, on the earnings call, said that the company intends to pursue similar deals with other programmers.

“We plan to modernize all of our distribution agreements upon renewal in a way that works for customers,” Winfrey said. “That means packaging flexibility, value and not asking customers or us to pay twice for similar DTC and linear programming. As programmers insist on customers paying twice, we just won’t carry those channels. But you know, we’d still be happy to sell their content in an à la carte app the same way as they do. Our goal is to modernize these agreements quietly and seamlessly for mutual customer base.”

Charter and Comcast also rolled out their Xumo platform earlier this month, planning to use it as a new focal point for video content.

Charter reported revenue of $13.6 billion in the quarter, up 0.2 percent year over year, and net income of $1.3 billion. The higher revenue was driven by an increase in both Internet and mobile customer relationships.

“We continue to make significant progress against the multiyear strategic initiatives we outlined last year,” said Winfrey in a statement. “These initiatives drive continuing improvements in the quality of our products, and when combined with our customer-friendly pricing and packaging and high-quality service, will drive significant, long-term growth in shareholder value.”

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...-rita-ferro-adds-global-oversight-1235628807/

Disney Advertising Chief Rita Ferro Adds Global Oversight as Disney+ Ad Business Expands (Exclusive)

Ferro says that 50 percent of new Disney+ subs are choosing the ad tier, as the company is set to launch it in global markets next month.

by Alex Weprin
October 27, 2023 6:00am PDT

With The Walt Disney Co. set to significantly expand its streaming advertising business, Rita Ferro is expanding her purview at the entertainment giant.

Ferro is being elevated to president of global advertising for Disney, giving her direct oversight of the company’s global advertising footprint. The expanded role comes as Disney is set to launch advertising tiers of Disney+ in Europe starting next month, and in other global markets early next year.

Ferro says that her team in Europe has been working with partners for some time to get ready for the launch.

“They have been talking about the slow rollout we’ve planned — intentionally — we learned a ton in the U.S. It is not day one everybody shows up,” Ferro says, adding that they are focused on “how we help customers come in and how they use the product and you want to manage it, so that you can make sure that you deliver campaigns for clients in a timely process, and in the scope of time that they would like that those campaigns to be delivered.”

Ferro also notes that Disney+ has some different programming in different markets “so that they want to make sure that they’re able to deliver it market by market.”

Disney launched the advertising tier of Disney+ less than a year ago, and according to Ferro, the interest in consumers has picked up since then.

Ferro says that more than 50 percent of new subscribers to Disney+ are choosing the ad tier (that is up from 40 percent earlier this year), and that engagement on the ad version of the streaming service has increased by 35 percent since March.

“Engagement is one of the key metrics for advertising, so it’s a really important metric that we track,” Ferro says.

Disney also raised the subscription price of Disney+ in August, but only for its ad-free tiers, gently nudging consumers to its less expensive ad plan. That was also when it announced the global expansion of the tier.

“We’ve been very, very cautious in terms of how we forecast and plan that rollout to make sure that we’re delivering with partners and that we have flexibility in how we’re doing deals,” Ferro says.

Beyond expanding internationally, Disney is bringing other functionality to its Disney+ ad tier as well. Ferro says that as of this week, biddable programmatic inventory is live on the platform, and that the company has expanded its targeting capabilities to include demos (like age and gender) but also geography and Disney Select Audience Segments.
“It gives them choice and control in the way they choose to buy, whether it’s direct through programmatic guarantees or now through biddable channels,” Ferro says.

The executive says that two key deputies, Jamie Power (who oversees addressable enablement) and Dana McGraw (who runs data science, audience modeling and attribution) now report directly to her, a sign of how the company is leaning into automated ad buying processes.

The company is also adding new types of creatives to Disney+, including -15 and -90 second ads. Ferro says that sponsorships have become a robust business for the company.

“In the market today on Disney+ we have all of our holiday sponsorships out for sale,” Ferro says. “We are very, very excited about where we are from a product roadmap perspective. I think we’re in a great place.”

Disney is also planning to hold its annual advertising tech and data showcase in-person for the first time, at the Chelsea Theater at the CES conference in Las Vegas in January.

“In the last I would say five years, [CES has] become really a kicking off point for starting the upfront-season conversation in a much more robust and direct way,” Ferro says. “The great thing about CES also is that you have a lot of international participants as well. CES and Cannes [the Cannes Lions advertising festival] both have a lot of international participants. So it’s places where we actually have had meetings on a global scale across brands and partners, and it just made sense to do it there.”

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/m...ey-delays-snow-white-actor-strike-1235629856/

Disney Delays ‘Snow White’ and ‘Elio’ a Year, Removes Jonathan Majors’ ‘Magazine Dreams’ From Calendar

Disney's Bob Iger and other Hollywood CEOs told SAG-AFTRA earlier this week that the deadline to salvage their 2024 theatrical slates is all but upon them.

by Pamela McClintock
October 27, 2023 11:00am PDT

Get ready for the dominoes to start falling in earnest as studios race to rearrange their 2024 theatrical release calendars amid the ongoing actors’ strike.

Disney on Friday announced it is delaying the release of its live-action Snow White movie starring Rachel Zegler by a year from March 22, 2024 to March 21, 2025. The film is among the studio’s biggest offerings of the year.

Ditto for Pixar’s March tentpole Elio, which is being delayed by more than a year, from March 1, 2024 to June 13, 2025.

In a move unrelated to the strike, Disney and Searchlight have removed Magazine Dreams starring Jonathan Majors from the December 2023 calendar. The move was widely expected due to Majors’ legal troubles.

Earlier this week, Disney’s Bob Iger and other Hollywood CEOs told SAG-AFTRA that the deadline is all but upon them in terms of having to decide which films to push if the two sides can’t come to a resolution. Multiple sources say that deadline is the first week of November, if not Nov 1.

Expect more release date changes in the coming days should the strike talks fall apart. Disney did not address the status of Deadpool 3, which Marvel is set to open in early May of this year, but the threequel is almost certain to relocate.

Paramount announced several days ago that Tom Cruise’s next Mission: Impossible movie is departing the 2024 box office calendar. The eighth installment in the action spy franchise appears to be dropping the second half of its previous title, Dead Reckoning, Part Two, with a new title expected to be announced at a later date.

 

[clarker99]

One movie per Studio per year except Marvel which will likely get 2.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...gs-disney-dispute-customer-losses-1235629754/

Charter Loses 320,000 Video Customers in Q3, Citing Disney Carriage Dispute

Disney's channels, including ESPN, ABC and FX, went dark for Charter customers in September; Charter's CFO says the company lost less customers than expected.

by Alex Weprin
October 27, 2023 4:26am PDT

Charter Communications, the cable giant that owns the Spectrum TV brand, lost 320,000 video customers in Q3, disclosing the impact of the company’s high-profile carriage dispute with The Walt Disney Co.

Charter noted that it had lost only 211,000 video customers a year earlier (and around 200,000 in the first two quarters of this year) and that the 6 percent decline was “partly driven by video disconnects related to the temporary loss of Disney programming in early September.”

Charter’s CFO Jessica Fischer said that the company lost somewhere around 100,000 more subscribers than it would have otherwise had the dispute not happened.

“The overall impact to customer relationships was less than we expected, facilitated in part by the wide availability of over-the-top alternatives,” Fisher said on the earnings call.

Disney’s channels went dark in the middle of the U.S. Open tennis tournament and with the NFL season about to kick off. Charter CEO Chris Winfrey framed the dispute at the time as a make-or-break moment.

“We’re on the edge of a precipice. We’re either moving forward with a new collaborative video model, or we’re moving on,” Winfrey said at the time. “This is not a typical carriage dispute. It’s significant for Charter, and we think it’s even more significant for programmers and the broader video ecosystem.”

Ultimately, after a couple of weeks, the companies reached a new deal, one that will see Disney+ bundled into Charter’s core video offering, but will also see the removal of a number of Disney’s cable channels, including Freeform, Disney Junior and Disney XD.

Dana Walden, co-chair of Disney’s entertainment division, acknowledged that the company “made some trade-offs” in the dispute, but argued that the deal will lead to the best outcome for the company by giving it a glide path to a profitable streaming business.

And Winfrey, on the earnings call, said that the company intends to pursue similar deals with other programmers.

“We plan to modernize all of our distribution agreements upon renewal in a way that works for customers,” Winfrey said. “That means packaging flexibility, value and not asking customers or us to pay twice for similar DTC and linear programming. As programmers insist on customers paying twice, we just won’t carry those channels. But you know, we’d still be happy to sell their content in an à la carte app the same way as they do. Our goal is to modernize these agreements quietly and seamlessly for mutual customer base.”

Charter and Comcast also rolled out their Xumo platform earlier this month, planning to use it as a new focal point for video content.

Charter reported revenue of $13.6 billion in the quarter, up 0.2 percent year over year, and net income of $1.3 billion. The higher revenue was driven by an increase in both Internet and mobile customer relationships.

“We continue to make significant progress against the multiyear strategic initiatives we outlined last year,” said Winfrey in a statement. “These initiatives drive continuing improvements in the quality of our products, and when combined with our customer-friendly pricing and packaging and high-quality service, will drive significant, long-term growth in shareholder value.”

With Xumo having launched, I’m sure their Q4 2023 earnings will be better. I heard that they are no longer offering cable boxes to new customers and offering Xumo boxes instead.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/m...ey-delays-snow-white-actor-strike-1235629856/

Disney Delays ‘Snow White’ and ‘Elio’ a Year, Removes Jonathan Majors’ ‘Magazine Dreams’ From Calendar

Disney's Bob Iger and other Hollywood CEOs told SAG-AFTRA earlier this week that the deadline to salvage their 2024 theatrical slates is all but upon them.

by Pamela McClintock
October 27, 2023 11:00am PDT

Get ready for the dominoes to start falling in earnest as studios race to rearrange their 2024 theatrical release calendars amid the ongoing actors’ strike.

Disney on Friday announced it is delaying the release of its live-action Snow White movie starring Rachel Zegler by a year from March 22, 2024 to March 21, 2025. The film is among the studio’s biggest offerings of the year.

Ditto for Pixar’s March tentpole Elio, which is being delayed by more than a year, from March 1, 2024 to June 13, 2025.

In a move unrelated to the strike, Disney and Searchlight have removed Magazine Dreams starring Jonathan Majors from the December 2023 calendar. The move was widely expected due to Majors’ legal troubles.

Earlier this week, Disney’s Bob Iger and other Hollywood CEOs told SAG-AFTRA that the deadline is all but upon them in terms of having to decide which films to push if the two sides can’t come to a resolution. Multiple sources say that deadline is the first week of November, if not Nov 1.

Expect more release date changes in the coming days should the strike talks fall apart. Disney did not address the status of Deadpool 3, which Marvel is set to open in early May of this year, but the threequel is almost certain to relocate.

Paramount announced several days ago that Tom Cruise’s next Mission: Impossible movie is departing the 2024 box office calendar. The eighth installment in the action spy franchise appears to be dropping the second half of its previous title, Dead Reckoning, Part Two, with a new title expected to be announced at a later date.

I’m worried Disney will end up cancelling Elio's June 2025 theatrical release and dump it onto Disney+, all because SAG-AFTRA and AMPTP are playing chicken and refusing to accept deals.

 

[wabbott]

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/former-espn-boss-john-skipper-203008751.html

Former ESPN Boss John Skipper Says Retaining NBA Rights Is An “Existential” Must For Disney
by Dade Hayes
Fri, 27 October 2023 at 3:30 pm GMT

Former ESPN President John Skipper, who led the effort to secure the current NBA rights deal, says incumbents Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery have no choice but to re-up with the league.

“These are existential rights for ESPN,” he said during an episode of Pablo Torre Finds Out, a podcast produced by Meadowlark Media, which Skipper co-founded in 2021.

“They have to have the NBA. And it’s pretty close to existential with TNT. I don’t know if they have to have the NBA, but I think they do.”

The companies’ 9-year pacts with Turner and ESPN, which average a total of $2.6 billion a year, are due to expire at the end of the 2024-25 season. As has happened in the NFL and other sports, large tech firms like Amazon and Apple are taking a close look at the rights given the overall shift toward streaming. NBCUniversal, whose Peacock streaming service carries a significant amount of live sports, has reportedly also expressed interest.

A digital component could inject newfound billions into NBA coffers, at a moment when traditional media players are confronting financial challenges across their operations in an era of rampant cord-cutting.

Live sports viewership is the main thing keeping the traditional pay-TV bundle from completely unraveling. Already, several million customers are cutting the cord each year, depriving media companies of a large chunk of distribution revenue. ESPN, for example, has lost more than one-quarter of its household penetration over the past decade.

While NBA games are a distant second to the NFL in terms of ratings, they do deliver cachet in other ways, with rights deals encompassing video clips that circulate on social media.

By the traditional Nielsen yardstick, however, viewership thus far in this young season is down a notch from last year. Some observers have speculated that flagging ratings could make Disney-ESPN and Warner Bros. Discovery, which owns TNT, less eager to shell out tens of billions on a new package. Skipper and David Samson, a former Major League Baseball club executive and Meadowlark podcast host, both pushed back on that notion, saying ratings are seldom a material issue in negotiations.

“I’m not sure that ratings ever factored that much into the calculation” of rights deals, Samson said.

“We didn’t get paid according to ratings, other than advertising,” Skipper agreed. Distribution fees, he added, “don’t change a cent based on ratings.”

Skipper, who presided over significant MLB, soccer and college football rights acquisitions when he ran ESPN as president for six of his 27 years at the network, said he never adhered too rigidly to a set of financial guidelines. “I never did a whole lot of calculating and figuring out of ‘What should we pay?'” he recalled. “I went into a negotiation believing I needed to win and I needed to get those rights to maintain ESPN’s status as the worldwide leader in sports.”

When Samson archly questioned whether all Disney brass took such an instinctual approach, Skipper clarified, “It’s not quite that casual. I had a CFO who spent time doing the budgets and doing the projections. … I’m simply talking about the idea that there is some intrinsic, inherent value that can be calculated. There’s not. … That was my attitude and that was my intention with those deals, was to win because we needed that content. Turner and ESPN need this content. This is a really, really hard problem.”

In more recent times, ESPN has elected to let marquee properties like Big Ten football leave the fold. The company has also undergone some of the most significant job cuts in its history as part of a sweeping set of Disney-orchestrated cutbacks.

Skipper and Samson, who once sat on other sides of the bargaining table, both noted that WBD chief David Zaslav months ago signaled his willingness to pass on the NBA if the price got too high. “We’re seeing the possibility of Turner saying, ‘Hey, we’re being priced out of this market’ – which happens,” Samson said.

The NBA process has been further complicated for ESPN by the sports outlet’s parent, Disney, saying publicly this year that it is seeking a minority partner to help with distribution and other expenses. Speculation has turned toward tech firms or pro leagues as potential stakeholders. Samson said it means Disney intends to sell off ESPN in order to attend to its other corporate priorities.

“I don’t believe that the board and [CEO Bob Iger] want to sell ESPN as a whole,” Skipper said. “They may be forced to because I’m not sure there is a minority partner.”

Skipper resigned from ESPN in December 2017 and went on to the executive chairman post at sports streamer DAZN prior to co-creating Meadowlark with former ESPN host Dan Le Batard. Torre is also a former ESPN staffer.

 

[wabbott]

https://deadline.com/2023/10/lakers-streaming-games-spectrum-sportsnet-1235585759/

Lakers Launch Low Cost, Direct-To-Consumer Streaming Service Offering Team’s Games, Player Interviews & Pre- & Post-Game Coverage
By Tom Tapp
Deputy Managing Editor
October 27, 2023 4:39pm PDT

In a major boon to Los Angeles area cord cutters, Spectrum SportsNet and the Los Angeles Lakers today announced the launch of what’s being called Spectrum SportsNet+, a direct-to-consumer streaming subscription service that will deliver a 24/7 feed of Spectrum SportsNet programming, including live Lakers games and behind-the-scenes Lakers content, to sports enthusiasts.

Starting today, fans can purchase a Spectrum SportsNet+ subscription at NBA.com and watch across a wide range of devices including iPhone, iPad, Roku, Android mobile, Android TV, Amazon Fire, Hisense, PlayStation and Xbox. Spectrum SportsNet+ will be powered by the NBA’s integrated digital platform.

Previously, fans of the Purple and Gold in the region had to subscribe to AT&T’s UVerse, DirecTV or Cox’s cable services, which were the only bundles to offer Spectrum SportsNet. But those cable services are significantly more expensive than the new D-to-C offering.

Now fans in Southern California, Hawaii and Southern Nevada without access to Spectrum SportsNet can purchase Spectrum SportsNet+ for $19.99 per month or $179.99 per season. Existing Spectrum, DirecTV and Cox pay TV customers who have access to Spectrum SportsNet programming will be able to watch via the Spectrum SportsNet app at no additional cost, and with authenticated access to Spectrum SportsNet+.

“With the start of the NBA regular season, the launch of Spectrum SportsNet+ will allow even more fans to enjoy live Lakers games and in-depth, unique coverage of their favorite team, with or without a pay TV subscription,” said Dan Finnerty, Senior Vice President and General Manager, Spectrum Sports in a statement. “By offering a variety of packages, we’re giving fans more choice and flexibility and taking another step towards evolving the Regional Sports Network model in this new era of sports viewing.”

NBA Commissioner Adam Silver presaged exactly this kind of move in an interview yesterday with Yahoo Sports.

“There’s no doubt there needs to be a reinvention [and] a fix in terms of the delivery system…If you’re a fan of your local team, you should be able to go to the NBA App or whoever our partner is and click and get that game for a reasonable fee,” he said. Silver also stressed the relative importance of streaming offerings to the NBA vs. other major leagues in the U.S.

“We’re paying attention to the fact that not only is the basic cable universe decreasing, but the demographic of that audience is changing as well. It’s beginning to look less like America — older and less diverse — and the NBA has a particularly young and diverse audience,” Silver observed.

“So we recognize that, in some ways, the decline of cable has disproportionately impacted the NBA. Our young audience isn’t subscribing to cable, and those fans aren’t finding our games.”

Disney and Warner Bros. Discovery now pay the league $2.7 billion a year to air games nationally – on ESPN/ABC and TNT, respectively. That agreement ends with the 2024-25 season. Teams like the Lakers are looking forward to a potentially very different media landscape once the current contract expires.

“This new service gives Lakers fans another way to watch their favorite team in action on the court,” said Tim Harris, President of Business Operations, Los Angeles Lakers. “The launch of Spectrum SportsNet+ brings the premium, in-depth coverage, analysis and behind-the-scenes content to more fans across the region, allowing us to reach more people every day and grow the next generation of Lakers fans.”

Spectrum SportsNet+ will include live regular season Lakers games starting Sunday, October 29 vs. the Sacramento Kings at 6 p.m. The Access SportsNet: Lakers pregame show will be on offer 60 minutes prior to every Lakers game throughout the season, providing game previews, interviews and coverage. Immediately following each game, Access SportsNet: Lakers postgame will include player and coach interviews, game highlights and in-depth analysis.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...or-hulu/ar-AA1j2wov?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

Citi explores a Disney trade-off: ABC and India for Hulu
Seeking Alpha - 10/29/23

Disney's (NYSE:DIS) moves to settle years-long divided ownership of streaming service Hulu -- and to begin what has been a slow pullback from its legacy linear television business -- could set up something of an asset trade for the media giant, Citi suggests.

Disney (DIS) and its Hulu co-owner Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are heading toward an early 2024 deadline to settle ownership of the streamer, through a unique options setup that allows for Comcast to sell its one-third stake to Disney, holder of the other two-thirds.

That calls for what will be a heavy payment from Disney. Separately, though, Disney (DIS) has been exploring the prospect of selling its ABC TV network in the coming year, as well as considering divesting a controlling stake in its India operations (to Reliance Industries).

The purchases and sales combined could see Disney more or less trading ABC and India for Hulu, Citi's Jason Bazinet said. Hulu's resolution is in the cards, and amid disputes about its valuation, the amount Disney pays to take it over will ultimately depend on third parties, he suggested.

"Our bull case implies Disney would make ~$9.1B payment, while our bear case implies ~$19B payment," he said.

Meanwhile, control of Disney's India operations could come for about $10B, and assuming Disney keeps 30%, it could add $7B in cash or stock with "modest changes" to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

And Citi estimates the ABC network and TV stations generate some $5.6B in revenue, and $920M in adjusted EBITDA. Given a 7x multiple of enterprise value to EBITDA, Bazinet figures the ABC assets would command about $6.5B.

"Under most scenarios, the potential proceeds from a sale of the India assets and ABC are likely to offset the Hulu payment," Bazinet said. "However, if third parties ascribe a very high value to Hulu, Disney may need to use some of its existing cash to acquire Hulu."

And while most of his scenarios don't affect Disney's equity value, a dear price for Hulu (excluding synergies) could put "modest pressure on Disney's equity."

 

[Elijah Abrams]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...or-hulu/ar-AA1j2wov?ocid=finance-verthp-feeds

Citi explores a Disney trade-off: ABC and India for Hulu
Seeking Alpha - 10/29/23

Disney's (NYSE:DIS) moves to settle years-long divided ownership of streaming service Hulu -- and to begin what has been a slow pullback from its legacy linear television business -- could set up something of an asset trade for the media giant, Citi suggests.

Disney (DIS) and its Hulu co-owner Comcast (NASDAQ:CMCSA) are heading toward an early 2024 deadline to settle ownership of the streamer, through a unique options setup that allows for Comcast to sell its one-third stake to Disney, holder of the other two-thirds.

That calls for what will be a heavy payment from Disney. Separately, though, Disney (DIS) has been exploring the prospect of selling its ABC TV network in the coming year, as well as considering divesting a controlling stake in its India operations (to Reliance Industries).

The purchases and sales combined could see Disney more or less trading ABC and India for Hulu, Citi's Jason Bazinet said. Hulu's resolution is in the cards, and amid disputes about its valuation, the amount Disney pays to take it over will ultimately depend on third parties, he suggested.

"Our bull case implies Disney would make ~$9.1B payment, while our bear case implies ~$19B payment," he said.

Meanwhile, control of Disney's India operations could come for about $10B, and assuming Disney keeps 30%, it could add $7B in cash or stock with "modest changes" to earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization.

And Citi estimates the ABC network and TV stations generate some $5.6B in revenue, and $920M in adjusted EBITDA. Given a 7x multiple of enterprise value to EBITDA, Bazinet figures the ABC assets would command about $6.5B.

"Under most scenarios, the potential proceeds from a sale of the India assets and ABC are likely to offset the Hulu payment," Bazinet said. "However, if third parties ascribe a very high value to Hulu, Disney may need to use some of its existing cash to acquire Hulu."

And while most of his scenarios don't affect Disney's equity value, a dear price for Hulu (excluding synergies) could put "modest pressure on Disney's equity."

UGH! More of these predictions that likely won't happen? We know now that ABC is staying with Disney after the recent news about GMA moving to Hudson Square.

Also, I hate most of the comments on the Seeking Alpha version of this article: Commentors thinking that Disney should buy Paramount Global. Are these random people psychotic?

 

[wabbott]

UGH! More of these predictions that likely won't happen? We know now that ABC is staying with Disney after the recent news about GMA moving to Hudson Square.

I wouldn't bet the farm on that. There is an offer on the table at $10 billion. This analyst says it ain't worth but $6.5 billion. Does DIS sell now or hang on until the value goes to zero?

Read that article again about the LA Lakers. What's to prevent any other sports team from doing the same, college or pro? Baseball, Football, Soccer, or whatever simply streaming their own games and keeping all the ad revenue for themselves instead of sharing it with ESPN or whoever? The point being is that someday in the not to distant future, the need for a "network" will no longer exist.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

I wouldn't bet the farm on that. There is an offer on the table at $10 billion. This analyst says it ain't worth but $6.5 billion. Does DIS sell now or hang on until the value goes to zero?

Bob Iger isn’t likely going to accept that $10 billion offer from Byron Allen, who’s just trying to get unwanted attention.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...ts-boosted-by-perlmutter-s-shares/ar-AA1j3YYL

Peltz’s Push for Disney Board Seats Boosted by Perlmutter’s Shares
Former Marvel Entertainment executive Ike Perlmutter says he can ‘no longer watch the business underachieve its great potential’
By Lauren Thomas and Robbie Whelan
Updated Oct. 30, 2023 12:08 am EDT

Billionaire and former Marvel executive Isaac “Ike” Perlmutter offered moral and logistical support to his friend Nelson Peltz last year when the activist investor campaigned for big changes at Disney.

As Peltz prepares a fresh challenge to the company, Perlmutter is proving to be a key financial ally, too.

Perlmutter said he has entrusted his stake in Disney to Peltz’s Trian Fund Management as it prepares to press the company for multiple board seats. Trian’s holding in the company totals about 33 million shares, including stock that the investment firm controls under an arrangement that gives Peltz’s firm sole voting power over Perlmutter’s shares, according to people familiar with the matter.

Trian’s Disney stake, a holding that The Wall Street Journal previously reported is worth upward of $2.5 billion, includes shares held by Trian funds and outside investors. Perlmutter’s shares represent the majority of the stock that Trian currently controls.

Aided by Perlmutter’s shares, Peltz’s Trian now has nearly four times as many shares to vote than the investment firm had during the first campaign, which means more muscle to press Disney CEO Bob Iger for board seats or other changes. The specter of Peltz’s renewed campaign represents one of several challenges Iger faces as Disney shares trade at their lowest level in nearly a decade.

Disney declined to comment.

Perlmutter became one of Disney’s largest independent shareholders when he sold Marvel to the entertainment giant for $4 billion in 2009. Perlmutter told the Journal he plans to urge Disney’s board to accept one or more of Trian’s board nominees, including Peltz.

Peltz hasn’t officially launched a fresh proxy battle against Disney—the nominating window for Disney’s board of directors opens in December—but he could do so if the board resists adding him as a director. Peltz is expected to seek multiple board seats, up from one last year, the Journal reported.

Trian isn’t seeking to add Perlmutter, who was chairman of Marvel Entertainment until March, to Disney’s board, nor is the firm asking Disney to rehire him, the people said.

“While I was a Disney employee, I was not comfortable publicly stating my views on the company and its performance,” Perlmutter said in a statement. “As someone with a large economic interest in Disney’s success, I can no longer watch the business underachieve its great potential.”

Peltz and Perlmutter are neighbors in Palm Beach, Fla., and frequently dine together with their wives.

Perlmutter said he plans to urge Disney’s board to “immediately welcome one or more Trian board candidates” and believes Peltz and Trian could help Disney improve its operations and strategy and achieve better results for shareholders.

Perlmutter said he has purchased but hasn’t sold Disney stock since the 2009 Marvel acquisition.

Perlmutter aims to donate family wealth to further medical research and hospital care, and an increase in the value of his Disney holdings will allow him to do more of this, he said. He and his wife Laurie have been active donors to medical charities and healthcare institutions including New York University’s Langone Medical Center.

Disney’s board members, excluding Iger, collectively own under $15 million worth of stock in the company, according to FactSet. Iger owns around $15 million in shares and has sold much of the stock he has received over the past two decades.

During Peltz’s initial campaign, Trian accumulated around nine million Disney shares and nominated Peltz to the board in a proxy campaign. Peltz called in proxy materials for Disney to cut spending, including executive pay, and criticized directors who he said had backed unwise strategic decisions and botched succession planning at the company.

Perlmutter assisted with the campaign by calling Disney directors and brokering meetings between Peltz and then-CEO Bob Chapek. Peltz called off his earlier campaign in February after Iger, who returned to the CEO job in November to replace Chapek, announced $5.5 billion in budget cuts and a head count reduction of 7,000 positions.

Trian hoped that with time, Disney’s cuts and other restructuring moves as well as new initiatives would result in improved operating performance. So far, changes at the company haven’t boosted Disney’s share price, which has languished below $100 per share for much of the year. On Friday, it closed at $79.33.

Perlmutter and Iger have long had an acrimonious relationship. Perlmutter, who made his fortune doing turnarounds of bankrupt and distressed retailers, believes that profligacy can kill a company if left unchecked. He pestered studio executives at Disney for years to spend less on Marvel Studios superhero movies, even offering script notes about how to save money on props and reduce runtime.

In 2015, after a dispute over budgets and movie slates between Marvel Studios chief Kevin Feige and the studio’s creative committee, which was led by Perlmutter and his allies, Iger sided with Feige and removed Perlmutter from his position overseeing the studio.

Perlmutter was terminated from his job running Marvel’s comic-book publishing and licensing businesses in March, a move Disney said at the time was part of the cost-cutting efforts. Perlmutter told the Journal in an interview that he was fired.

“I have no doubt that my termination was based on fundamental differences in business between my thinking and Disney leadership, because I care about return on investment,” Perlmutter said at the time. Both Iger and Perlmutter have acknowledged in recent interviews that their relationship is strained.

Write to Lauren Thomas at lauren.thomas@wsj.com and Robbie Whelan at robbie.whelan@wsj.com

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hollywood-strikes-dampen-big-medias-095611463.html

Hollywood strikes to dampen Big Media's holiday expectations
By Samrhitha A and Chavi Mehta
10/30/23

(Reuters) - Big media firms are expected to warn starting this week that studio revenues will slow in the coming quarters as dual Hollywood strikes left them with a thin release slate.

Walt Disney, Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount - which together account for nearly half of Hollywood revenues - have delayed the release of films, including "Dune: Part 2."

That leaves the studios with little to follow the third-quarter success of "Barbenheimer", with TD Cowen predicting that box-office revenue in the last three months of the year could be roughly a third lower than pre-pandemic levels.
After a strong November line up with "The Marvels," "Trolls Band Together" and a "Hunger Games" prequel, big Christmas releases are few.

There is no obvious December blockbuster on the scale of "Avatar: The Way of Water," the highest-grossing film in 2022, or the 2021 hit "Spider-Man: No Way Home."

The first dual work stoppage of writers and actors in 63 years has halted most productions since May. While the scribes began returning to work following a 148-day strike after reaching a deal with producers, it remains unclear when the actors would return.

Even if a deal is reached with the actors soon, Wall Street does not expect a quick respite for the studios as it could take weeks for productions to resume.

Analysts expect studio revenues at Disney and Warner Bros Discovery to slow to 2.9% and 4.7% between October and December, while Paramount will likely post a drop of 1.9%, according to LSEG data.

That compares with third-quarter estimates for a rise of 4.4% at Disney, 12.5% at Warner Bros Discovery and 16.2% at Paramount.

"With the major media companies trying very hard to turn the direction of margins back in a positive direction, in part by raising price on OTT services, the potential for an extended dry period for new content carries serious risks," TD Cowen said.

The companies as well as Netflix have raised prices of their streaming services this year, betting that consumers will pay more or opt for cheaper, ad-supported services that are more lucrative for the business.

Netflix, which makes many of its shows and movies overseas, reported earlier this month 9 million estimate-smashing subscriber additions in the September quarter and said it expected similar additions in the holiday period.

Higher fees powered growth in streaming revenue - likely 6.9% at Warner Bros Discovery, 14.2% at Disney and 33% at Paramount - in the September quarter, potentially reducing losses at the money-losing Disney+ and Paramount+ services.

CABLE TV PRESSURE

Media companies have long been grappling with a decline in cable TV. This has forced Disney to consider the sale of the assets that had long helped subsidize its streaming losses.

"The only bright spot is ESPN, which is the linchpin that holds the bundle together and viewership has stabilized over the last few years despite accelerated cord-cutting," said Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon of Disney, which he said has the largest exposure to traditional cable TV among the major media companies.

Disney has said it will break out sports programming revenue from the holiday quarter, and earlier this month disclosed declining sales and profit at ESPN, for which CEO Bob Iger has signaled he wants to find a partner to help create a streaming service.

Disney is expected to report its fifth straight quarterly decline in linear TV revenue, a fall of 3.8%. Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount are expected to see declines of 5.4% each in their cable TV businesses.

Overall revenue at Disney is expected to rise 6%, Warner Bros Discovery to inch 2.1% higher and Paramount to grow 2.8%.

Paramount will report quarterly earnings on Nov. 2, while Disney and Warner Bros Discovery are slated for Nov. 8.

 

[Elijah Abrams]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hollywood-strikes-dampen-big-medias-095611463.html

Hollywood strikes to dampen Big Media's holiday expectations
By Samrhitha A and Chavi Mehta
10/30/23

(Reuters) - Big media firms are expected to warn starting this week that studio revenues will slow in the coming quarters as dual Hollywood strikes left them with a thin release slate.

Walt Disney, Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount - which together account for nearly half of Hollywood revenues - have delayed the release of films, including "Dune: Part 2."

That leaves the studios with little to follow the third-quarter success of "Barbenheimer", with TD Cowen predicting that box-office revenue in the last three months of the year could be roughly a third lower than pre-pandemic levels.
After a strong November line up with "The Marvels," "Trolls Band Together" and a "Hunger Games" prequel, big Christmas releases are few.

There is no obvious December blockbuster on the scale of "Avatar: The Way of Water," the highest-grossing film in 2022, or the 2021 hit "Spider-Man: No Way Home."

The first dual work stoppage of writers and actors in 63 years has halted most productions since May. While the scribes began returning to work following a 148-day strike after reaching a deal with producers, it remains unclear when the actors would return.

Even if a deal is reached with the actors soon, Wall Street does not expect a quick respite for the studios as it could take weeks for productions to resume.

Analysts expect studio revenues at Disney and Warner Bros Discovery to slow to 2.9% and 4.7% between October and December, while Paramount will likely post a drop of 1.9%, according to LSEG data.

That compares with third-quarter estimates for a rise of 4.4% at Disney, 12.5% at Warner Bros Discovery and 16.2% at Paramount.

"With the major media companies trying very hard to turn the direction of margins back in a positive direction, in part by raising price on OTT services, the potential for an extended dry period for new content carries serious risks," TD Cowen said.

The companies as well as Netflix have raised prices of their streaming services this year, betting that consumers will pay more or opt for cheaper, ad-supported services that are more lucrative for the business.

Netflix, which makes many of its shows and movies overseas, reported earlier this month 9 million estimate-smashing subscriber additions in the September quarter and said it expected similar additions in the holiday period.

Higher fees powered growth in streaming revenue - likely 6.9% at Warner Bros Discovery, 14.2% at Disney and 33% at Paramount - in the September quarter, potentially reducing losses at the money-losing Disney+ and Paramount+ services.

CABLE TV PRESSURE

Media companies have long been grappling with a decline in cable TV. This has forced Disney to consider the sale of the assets that had long helped subsidize its streaming losses.

"The only bright spot is ESPN, which is the linchpin that holds the bundle together and viewership has stabilized over the last few years despite accelerated cord-cutting," said Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon of Disney, which he said has the largest exposure to traditional cable TV among the major media companies.

Disney has said it will break out sports programming revenue from the holiday quarter, and earlier this month disclosed declining sales and profit at ESPN, for which CEO Bob Iger has signaled he wants to find a partner to help create a streaming service.

Disney is expected to report its fifth straight quarterly decline in linear TV revenue, a fall of 3.8%. Warner Bros Discovery and Paramount are expected to see declines of 5.4% each in their cable TV businesses.

Overall revenue at Disney is expected to rise 6%, Warner Bros Discovery to inch 2.1% higher and Paramount to grow 2.8%.

Paramount will report quarterly earnings on Nov. 2, while Disney and Warner Bros Discovery are slated for Nov. 8.

I’m worried the current talks between the studios and actors will implode, because Fran Drescher is being nutty.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/peacock-positioned-streaming-success-nbc-213000449.html

Peacock Is Positioned for Streaming Success, but Can NBC Help it Take Flight? | Charts
Christofer Hamilton
Mon, October 30, 2023 at 4:30 PM CDT

Peacock emerged as a bright spot in Comcast’s third quarter earnings report on Thursday. The platform added 4 million subscribers for a total of 28 million. This, combined with increased prices for the streamer, grew its revenue to $830 million. In addition to its solid earnings numbers, several other indicators look positive for Peacock in the short, medium and long term. The question is whether NBCUniversal will be able to fully take advantage of these strengths to make Peacock a more competitive platform.

In the immediate term, Peacock has been well positioned to weather the content stoppages of the strikes with its catalog of unscripted content. Highly in-demand competition series from NBC like “America’s Got Talent” and “The Voice” are available on Peacock. The platform’s lineup of Bravo reality series is a cornerstone of its library and WWE shows often rank among the most in-demand on Peacock.

The end of the writers’ strike meant that “Saturday Night Live,” one of Peacock’s key assets, was able to return. Demand for the 49th season premiere was 11% higher than last season and it was the most-watched “SNL” season premiere on Peacock.

While Peacock has lagged other platforms in terms of both the quantity and demand for its original content, the recent slowdown in the pace of new streaming content premiering could relieve some of the competitive pressure faced by the platform in this area. Peacock leads other platforms in the share of demand for shows on its platform originally from broadcast channels (37%).

Platform catalogue demand shares by release type (Parrot Analytics)

Another positive indicator that bodes well for the platform in the very near term is high anticipation for the horror movie “Five Nights at Freddy’s,” which premiered simultaneously in theaters and on Peacock on Oct. 27th. The pre-release demand for this movie has been higher than many other recent horror premieres, and it soared to a $78 million opening weekend at the box office.

In the medium term, a major question for Comcast’s NBCUniversal is just how much it can wring out of Disney for its 33% stake in Hulu. With negotiations underway, Disney will try to stick to the $27.5 billion floor for Hulu, while Comcast will hope JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley agree on a significantly higher valuation. Regardless of the final details, Comcast is likely to receive at least $9 billion at just the right time, with Wall Street calling on legacy media companies to cut costs and increase free cash flow.

Parrot Analytics audience demographic data suggests a theoretical combo of Peacock and Hulu would not create a true four quadrant service, as both appeal to a slightly older and more female audiences. Originals from these platforms are largely targeting the same audience.

Overlap between demographics of Peacock and Hulu subscribers (Parrot Analytics)

While recent signs look positive for Peacock and any payout for Comcast’s stake in Hulu would be a boon for the company, it is still important to note how the platform trails competitors. The total demand for all shows and movies on Peacock was less than half of the demand for all the content on Netflix in Q3. Even though Peacock’s total demand for its catalog was up in Q3 from Q2, it still trails most major streamers in the U.S. This fact adds some urgency for the platform to take advantage of any near-term tailwinds.

On-platform demand share for Q3 (Parrot Analytics)

The company sees sports becoming more important to the streaming landscape and anticipates that this will be a strength for Peacock. Mike Cavanagh, Comcast president, emphasized the longer-term timeframe of these ambitions. “While sports over the long-term…are going to be experienced significantly through streaming, for a long time the economics of sports rights is going to be substantially supported by broadcast reach.”

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts further highlighted the importance of sports to Comcast’s streaming strategy. “We see all sports finding a way over the next [few] years to be more and more streamed, and that’s going to require more bandwidth,” he said. “And that’s going to require and create an opportunity for us to have the superior product in the market. That’s our strategy, and sports really is at the heart and soul of a lot of what we do.”

Several recent factors, including a potential windfall from a sale of its parent company’s stake in Hulu, look positive for Peacock’s prospects. The trick will be capitalizing on these near-term strengths and putting the platform in a position where it is able to take advantage of the longer term future, where the company’s leadership feels Peacock will truly be able to take flight.

 

[wabbott]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Tr...d-operator-sees-record-profit-for-fiscal-2023

Tokyo Disneyland operator sees record profit for fiscal 2023
Disney Premier Access proves successful in raising per-customer spending

MAI KITAGAWA, Nikkei staff writer - October 31, 2023 01:31 JST

TOKYO -- The operator of the Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea theme parks is now projecting a record operating profit for the year ending March 2024, buoyed by the return of foreign visitors and higher per-guest spending.

Oriental Land on Monday upgraded its operating profit projection to 146.7 billion yen ($979 million), a 32% increase on the year and up 24.5 billion yen from the previous forecast. It tops the previous record operating profit of 129.2 billion yen, marked for the year ended March 2019.

Sales are seen up 23% at 594.6 billion yen, exceeding the previous forecast by 50.7 billion yen. Oriental Land's mainstay theme park business and its hotel business are both forecast to log higher sales. The company has raised its planned annual dividend by 2 yen per share to 11 yen.

Higher per-customer spending is driving the profit growth. Oriental Land has raised its forecast sales per guest to 16,623 yen, up 593 yen from the previously projected 16,030 yen.

The Disney Premier Access program that gives guests priority access to certain rides or shows for an extra fee -- helped lift spending, as did sales of merchandise celebrating the 40th anniversary of Tokyo Disneyland.

Tokyo Disney Resort has introduced a variable pricing system that adjusts admission depending on congestion levels, raising the highest price of an adult one-day ticket by 1,500 yen to 10,900 yen in October. This increase had already been factored into the previous forecast.

Park visitors rose 40% on the year to 12.5 million in the April-September period. Foreigners accounted for 13%, exceeding the record 10% set in the fiscal year ended March 2020.

Overall attendance for the fiscal year ending March 2024 is seen reaching 26.3 million guests, up 1.2 million from the previous forecast and reaching 80% of the record high set in the year ended March 2019.

April-September sales rose 39% on the year to 284.3 billion yen. Operating profit doubled to 77 billion yen, and net profit increased 110% to 54.5 billion yen.

The company also adjusted its medium-term business plan through March 2025. The previous operating profit goal of 100 billion yen or higher for the final year of the plan was revised to the 160 billion yen level. The previous plan was drawn up in April 2022 amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tokyo DisneySea's Fantasy Springs attraction is set to open in June 2024. Oriental Land expects it to boost consolidated sales by an annual 75 billion yen or so, up from 50 billion yen.

The company now aims to invest 215 billion yen in growth and 90 billion yen in upgrading, up from the previously planned 160 billion yen and 75 billion yen.

After the Fantasy Springs expansion, Oriental Land plans to reopen a renovated Space Mountain ride and its surrounding area at Tokyo Disneyland in 2027.

Tokyo Disney Resort "is marking its 40th anniversary, and some of its facilities have become outdated," Oriental Land Executive Vice President Yuichi Katayama told a news conference. "We need to make improvements to areas other than Space Mountain," he said.

It was revealed Oct. 17 that U.K. investment fund Palliser Capital had requested train operator Keisei Electric Railway, a major Oriental Land shareholder, to reduce its undervalued stake in the company.

"We anticipate various possibilities but are not in a position to comment," Katayama said Monday.

https://www.olc.co.jp/en/news/news_olc/auto_20231030574367/pdfFile.pdf

 

[irlandaise]

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/peacock-positioned-streaming-success-nbc-213000449.html

Peacock Is Positioned for Streaming Success, but Can NBC Help it Take Flight? | Charts
Christofer Hamilton
Mon, October 30, 2023 at 4:30 PM CDT

Peacock emerged as a bright spot in Comcast’s third quarter earnings report on Thursday. The platform added 4 million subscribers for a total of 28 million. This, combined with increased prices for the streamer, grew its revenue to $830 million. In addition to its solid earnings numbers, several other indicators look positive for Peacock in the short, medium and long term. The question is whether NBCUniversal will be able to fully take advantage of these strengths to make Peacock a more competitive platform.

...

Another positive indicator that bodes well for the platform in the very near term is high anticipation for the horror movie “Five Nights at Freddy’s,” which premiered simultaneously in theaters and on Peacock on Oct. 27th. The pre-release demand for this movie has been higher than many other recent horror premieres, and it soared to a $78 million opening weekend at the box office.

I was surprised to see this positive report about Peacock, because over the weekend I was reading articles in the trade mags about how the big theatrical opening for that video-game movie meant that no one was staying home and watching it on Peacock. The service may have other "positive indicators that bode well" for it (as shown in the graphics about all its content sources), but I'm not sure that movie was one of them.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/b...ey-comcast-deal-scenario-analysts-1235633154/
Disney and Comcast’s Hulu Staredown Nears End: Who Wins on the Price Tag?

Starting on Nov. 1, an option to begin the deal process for the 33 percent stake in the streaming platform — expected to be worth north of $9 billion — can be triggered.
October 31, 2023 10:27am PDT
by Georg Szalai

Disney and Comcast could finally be heading toward a deal to make the former the 100 percent owner of streaming service Hulu, and Wall Street analysts are tallying up possible scenarios. It is widely expected that an option to start the deal process will be triggered soon after that becomes possible on Wednesday, Nov. 1.

After all, in early September, the two sector giants amended a previous agreement, moving up the timing for when they can use put and call options from January 2024 to November. The options allow Comcast, which owns a 33 percent stake in Hulu, to force Disney to buy it out and/or Disney to require Comcast to sell the minority stake. The value of the streamer — which has 48 million paid subscribers and higher average monthly revenue per user than Disney+ — will be assessed as of Sept. 30.

The main question is the price Disney will have to pay, which has been an overhang for the Bob Iger-led company’s shares.

In their previous pact, the Hollywood conglomerates set a floor value of $27.5 billion for Hulu, which would mean Disney paying $9 billion-plus for Comcast’s stake. However, Comcast executives have signaled they expect the value to have risen since then. “The company is way more valuable today than it was then,” Comcast chairman and CEO Brian Roberts told an investor conference in September.

To help the two owners find an agreement on a price tag, each company has hired an investment bank to examine the streamer’s books and value Hulu. If the two valuations are within 10 percent of each other, the average of the two will be the price tag for Hulu. If there’s not an agreement between Comcast and Disney, a third investment bank will have to make a third determination. In that case, the Hulu price tag will be calculated as the average of the two determinations that are closest in value to each other.

Wall Street experts have started to weigh in with their Hulu deal expectations and what a transaction would mean for each sector giant.

Citi analyst Jason Bazinet suggested in an Oct. 26 Disney report that the company’s various deals being considered by Iger could see possible asset sales — including its India business and linear TV assets — pay for the takeover of full control of Hulu. “Given Disney’s agreement with Comcast, the firm is set to gain full ownership of Hulu by early 2024,” he wrote. “Our bull case implies Disney would make around (a) $9.1 billion payment, while our bear case implies about (a) $19 billion payment.”

Bazinet also touched on recent chatter that the entertainment powerhouse could look to sell a controlling stake in its India business, estimating it could be valued at about $10 billion. Assuming that Disney will retain a 30 percent stake, such a sale would bring in around $7 billion, according to the analyst.

In addition, the Citi expert estimated that Disney’s ABC network and TV stations, which Iger has said he could offload, could fetch a price tag of about $6.5 billion.

Concluded Bazinet: “Under most scenarios, the potential proceeds from a sale of the India assets and ABC are likely to offset the Hulu payment. However, if third parties ascribe a very high value to Hulu, Disney may need to use some of its existing cash to acquire Hulu.”

What does this mean for Disney shares? “Under most scenarios, we do not see much movement in Disney’s equity value from these three potential transactions,” Bazinet said. “However, a robust Hulu value we think could put modest pressure on Disney’s equity. We note, however, our analysis excludes any value from potential synergies stemming from full ownership of Hulu.”

Meanwhile, Sanford C. Bernstein analyst Laurent Yoon entitled his Oct. 25 report “Hulu auction — the range of outcomes is narrow.” In it, he detailed investor worries and estimates for Hulu and why he decided to use the word “auction” in his discussion.

“We believe there’s an overhang on Disney’s stock price due to the risk that Disney may have to pay a ransom amount to gain full control of Hulu,” he wrote of investor concerns.

“The debate is not centered on the standalone value of Hulu. Our valuation range is $32 billion-$36 billion, and we’ve encountered minimal pushback from investors,” Yoon explained. “The debate revolves around whether Disney should pay a premium on top of the standalone valuation, and the common argument is that Disney already owns 67 percent of Hulu and should not pay a premium for the remaining minority stake.”

That said, the expert noted that Comcast and Disney, in recent regulatory filings detailing the process to establish Hulu’s price tag for a deal, used slightly different language. Disney’s disclosure language did not mention a premium, whereas Comcast included a clause mentioning “a sale process designed to maximize equity value, which sale process may include a sale by auction and/or sealed bid process.”

What does that mean for a Disney-Comcast deal for Hulu? “What is included in the winning bid of an auction? Premium over other bidders,” Bernstein’s Yoon wrote. “Hence, we believe the outcome is going to be around $40 billion (assumes 20-30 percent premium to the lower end of standalone valuation range).”

The analyst also outlined the impact on Disney’s stock. “If we’re right, then the impact is less than 3 percent of equity as of market close (on Oct. 24). If we’re wrong – no premium, well, that’s even better news for Disney,” Yoon highlighted. “Either way, the modest overhang on the stock should be alleviated as the process unfolds, providing a positive catalyst, particularly if coupled with management’s guidance on the future synergies in both operations and revenue from the combined assets.”

In a September report, Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall argued that “a consummation of the deal is constructive to both buyer and seller.”

Commenting on the impact of a Hulu transaction to Comcast, he wrote: “The potential range to Hulu’s assessed enterprise value, net of tax, can add nicely to Comcast’s (stock) buyback but is still relatively modest versus its $185 billion market cap, i.e. Hulu is not a huge catalyst for Comcast.”

How about Disney? “The Hulu put value has been a bigger issue for Disney investors as it weighs on the balance sheet amidst direct-to-consumer losses and linear declines,” Cahall explained. “We also think Disney’s ultimate streaming strategies are held back as long as Comcast owns its third, hence the interest in accelerating the timing.”

He also commented on the likely fallout from a transaction. “While there’s a valuation at which the Hulu put is a downside to Disney, we see the conclusion as removing an overhang,” the Wells Fargo analyst said. “We also estimated $1 billion in selling, general, and administrative expenses (SG&A) synergies, so Hulu should help drive direct-to-consumer operating income improvement.”