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[New Mouse]

I don't understand the passion from marketers for ad based TV. There's no way it can be a successful use of money. When was the last time you truly bought something because of an ad?

 

[wabbott]

I don't understand the passion from marketers for ad based TV. There's no way it can be a successful use of money. When was the last time you truly bought something because of an ad?

I understand your skepticism, but literally trillions of dollars has been spent on "toll broadcasting" since it was invented.

 

[BrianL]

I don't understand the passion from marketers for ad based TV. There's no way it can be a successful use of money. When was the last time you truly bought something because of an ad?

Pretty much anything anyone buys is because of an "ad" - even when that ad is in the form of an article on a website. Like, they are running ads for the new Zelda game. No, I didn't buy it becuase of a TV commercial - I was already going to buy it. But how did I find out it was even coming? It was an ad - direct from Nintendo over the Internet, but still an ad. Suppose I'm not a super plugged-in video game fan, but I like to kick back with Zelda on my Switch. I see the commercial and I say, hey, I should go out and grab that new one. The VAST majority of consumers actually fall into the latter category.

 

[Jrb1979]

I understand your skepticism, but literally trillions of dollars has been spent on "toll broadcasting" since it was invented.

I'm more surprised that here is that many willing to pay for an ad tier.

 

[wabbott]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/espn-l...ship-channel-eyeing-cable-tvs-demise-ad0fb727

ESPN Lays Plans to Stream Flagship Channel, Eyeing Cable TV’s Demise
Internal project code-named ‘flagship’ lays out shift in coming years, as talks with leagues and cable partners have begun
By Jessica ToonkelFollow
and Sarah KrouseFollow
May 18, 2023 9:04 am EDT

Project ‘Flagship’ will help ESPN transition to streaming of high-value programming like NBA telecasts that are now only available on TV.

ESPN is laying the groundwork to sell its channel directly to cable cord-cutters as a subscription-streaming service in coming years, according to people familiar with the matter, a shift with profound implications for the company and the broader television business.

 

[butterscotchcollins]

I'm more surprised that here is that many willing to pay for an ad tier.

I miss the days of the ad tier being free and the pay tier being ad-free. Corporations are so freaking greedy - consumer data is SO VALUABLE the least they could do is give us free streaming in exchange for it.

 

[Scalemaster34]

https://www.wsj.com/articles/espn-l...ship-channel-eyeing-cable-tvs-demise-ad0fb727

ESPN Lays Plans to Stream Flagship Channel, Eyeing Cable TV’s Demise
Internal project code-named ‘flagship’ lays out shift in coming years, as talks with leagues and cable partners have begun
By Jessica ToonkelFollow
and Sarah KrouseFollow
May 18, 2023 9:04 am EDT

Project ‘Flagship’ will help ESPN transition to streaming of high-value programming like NBA telecasts that are now only available on TV.

ESPN is laying the groundwork to sell its channel directly to cable cord-cutters as a subscription-streaming service in coming years, according to people familiar with the matter, a shift with profound implications for the company and the broader television business.

It's another case of the content costing more than what the streamers can recoup....

ESPN's deal with NBA was a nine year extension that goes through 2025... they pay about $1.4 Billion a year for their portion of the rights that they split with Turner. But NBA is looking for more with their new contract - both in length (11 years) and amount - they want $75 million overall. That would result in an increase to $3.6 million per year if the split stays the same with Turner.

I look at these cost that these distribution rights are costing, and just don't see how ESPN can operate... without packages that go way beyond what most are going to be willing to pay. YouTube is paying nearly $2 Billion per year for the next seven years for NFL Sunday Ticket - this isn't All games, as CBS, FOX, ESPN and Amazon have right to air many games. But NFL is also much fewer games - 256 NFL per regular season vs 1,230 NBA matchups. If you miss the Sunday Ticket presale... it's going to be $489 for the full package.

 

[RivShore]

Thanks @wabbott for this one:

https://www.ocregister.com/2023/05/...theme-park-expansion-plans-for-next-30-years/

Disneyland lays out theme park expansion plans for next 30 years
Brady MacDonald
5–7 minutes

Disneyland laid out long-term expansion plans to Orange County business leaders on Wednesday, May 17, that will extensively reimagine what the future of the Anaheim theme park resort district will look like over the next three decades.

Disneyland resort President Ken Potrock spoke before the OC Forum at Disney’s Grand Californian Hotel about the DisneylandForward proposal that envisions extensive theme park, retail and parking expansion within the resort district boundaries.

“To put it simply, DisneylandForward sets the stage for significant and multi-decade investment in the future. This is the next generation of the Disneyland resort,” Potrock told the attendees. “When Disney invests, all boats rise and everyone benefits.”

Sign up for our Park Life newsletter and find out what’s new and interesting every week at Southern California’s theme parks. Subscribe here.

Rendering of a possible theme park expansion around the Disney-owned...

Rendering of a possible theme park expansion around the Disney-owned hotels west of Disneyland during an OC Forum luncheon at the Grand California in Anaheim, CA, on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)

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Rendering of a possible theme park expansion around the Disney-owned hotels west of Disneyland during an OC Forum luncheon at the Grand California in Anaheim, CA, on Wednesday, May 17, 2023. (Photo by Jeff Gritchen, Orange County Register/SCNG)

Expand

Disneyland first unveiled the DisneylandForward expansion plan in September 2021, a few months after reopening Disney’s Anaheim theme parks following a yearlong pandemic closure.

The OC Forum presentation served as a town hall of sorts where Disneyland put forward its case to Orange County business and civic leaders detailing the tourism, tax revenue and employment benefits of the DisneylandForward proposal.

“The economic engine that is the Disneyland resort will be turning 68 years young in July, yet we believe it has more potential than ever,” Potrock said. “When we work together the possibilities are endless and that is exactly what we are trying to do.”

SEE ALSO: Disneyland closing 3 classic Fantasyland rides this summer

Since 2021, Disneyland has been working closely with the city of Anaheim to extensively update the planning approval process governing the resort district. A draft environmental impact study is expected to be completed by the summer with the DisneylandForward proposal going before the Anaheim Planning Commission before the end of the year and the City Council in early 2024.

An economic study presented by Cal State Fullerton’s Anil Puri toward the end of the OC Forum spelled out the economic impact of every billion dollars invested by Disneyland. During an average four-year construction period, Disneyland would generate 4,500 jobs, $11 million in tax revenue and $1.1 billion in economic output in Anaheim for every billion dollars spent, according to Puri’s study.

The DisneylandForward presentation included concept art from Disney theme park projects around the globe offering “possibilities” of what future expansion could look like at the Disneyland resort. The projects presented included the Tangled, Frozen and Peter Pan themed lands coming to Tokyo Disneyland in Japan and the Zootopia themed land planned for Shanghai Disneyland in China.

“What we would love is for those future innovations to have a spot here in Anaheim,” Disney’s Global Development vice president Rachel Alde said during a panel discussion.

SEE ALSO: Get ready for the Grad Nite invasion of Disneyland

DisneylandForward is Disney’s effort to work with the city to grow the Disneyland resort, update the blueprint for the theme park district and propel Anaheim’s economic rebound following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Disney is asking the city for more flexibility in land use plans approved in the 1990s in order to be able to add a mix of theme park, hotel, retail, dining and entertainment on the eastern and western edges of the Disneyland resort.

“Back in the early ’90s, Disney and the city of Anaheim worked collaboratively on their vision for the next three-plus decades,” Potrock said. “Together, we built this unique tourism engine and the vision we had for the continued growth of this community is quite honestly a marvel. This is a very unique, special and advantageous benefit to the city of Anaheim, Orange County and in fact, the entire state. We are incredibly excited about the opportunity to do it again as we look to the next 10, 20 and even 30 years ahead.”

The Immersive Theme Park westside expansion in the DisneylandForward proposal envisions theme park attractions on the Downtown Disney and Lilo and Stitch parking lots woven amid the Disneyland Hotel and Paradise Pier Hotel.

The proposed Disney Entertainment Destination eastside expansion would bring together theme park experiences, hotels, retail, dining and entertainment on the Toy Story parking lot next to the Anaheim Convention Center.

The DisneylandForward plan also includes possible new parking along Disney Way.

Disneyland has used less than half of the millions of square feet of theme park and hotel space that has already been approved for the resort district. The DisneylandForward conceptual development plan stays within Disney’s existing 500-acre property in Anaheim with no physical expansion or additional acreage.

 

[RivShore]

I'm more surprised that here is that many willing to pay for an ad tier.

Don't forget that all of us, of a certain age, were programed to pay $100+ for ad filled cable, each and every month for decades.

 

[RivShore]

It's another case of the content costing more than what the streamers can recoup....

ESPN's deal with NBA was a nine year extension that goes through 2025... they pay about $1.4 Billion a year for their portion of the rights that they split with Turner. But NBA is looking for more with their new contract - both in length (11 years) and amount - they want $75 million overall. That would result in an increase to $3.6 million per year if the split stays the same with Turner.

I look at these cost that these distribution rights are costing, and just don't see how ESPN can operate... without packages that go way beyond what most are going to be willing to pay. YouTube is paying nearly $2 Billion per year for the next seven years for NFL Sunday Ticket - this isn't All games, as CBS, FOX, ESPN and Amazon have right to air many games. But NFL is also much fewer games - 256 NFL per regular season vs 1,230 NBA matchups. If you miss the Sunday Ticket presale... it's going to be $489 for the full package.

The only way those contracts work financially is under the old cable model, where everyone, whether you watch a channel or not, pays $7 a month for it as part of the "bundle". I also don't see how its going to work for the streamers, unless they charge Sunday Ticket prices for each league.

 

[RivShore]

I miss the days of the ad tier being free and the pay tier being ad-free. Corporations are so freaking greedy - consumer data is SO VALUABLE the least they could do is give us free streaming in exchange for it.

No one is making much margin on streaming, even Netflix, which only recently became profitable, is at a very low profit margin, and it cost them billions and billions of cash burn to get there. Not sure how trying to get to breakeven makes them "greedy"??

 

[Jrb1979]

The only way those contracts work financially is under the old cable model, where everyone, whether you watch a channel or not, pays $7 a month for it as part of the "bundle". I also don't see how its going to work for the streamers, unless they charge Sunday Ticket prices for each league.

I think the business model is going to have to change drastically. IMO you are going to have to market the sports gambling community and the hardcore sports fan. You also to up the price by a lot. It's going to have to be close to cable prices for it to work.

 

[OKW Lover]

I don't understand the passion from marketers for ad based TV. There's no way it can be a successful use of money. When was the last time you truly bought something because of an ad?

Perhaps I'm misunderstanding your comment here. "ad based TV" is pretty much what I grew up with in the days before cable and now even watching cable TV stations there are ads.

 

[wabbott]

I think the business model is going to have to change drastically. IMO you are going to have to market the sports gambling community and the hardcore sports fan. You also to up the price by a lot. It's going to have to be close to cable prices for it to work.

So if DIS continues worrying with streaming everyday programing (like Hulu), sports and gambling, ABC TV, etc, and neglecting the IP that is the heart and soul of the company - and its value as a brand - at what point does "Disney" cease to exist.

This is a very serious question.

 

[Jrb1979]

So if DIS continues worrying with streaming everyday programing (like Hulu), sports and gambling, ABC TV, etc, and neglecting the IP that is the heart and soul of the company - and its value as a brand - at what point does "Disney" cease to exist.

This is a very serious question.

IMO they can do both and it's probably really the only way D+ will make money.

 

[wabbott]

David Sarnoff, who ran Radio Corporation of America (RCA) for many years, originally thought equipment manufacture was the future of the business and he focused the company on making phonographs, radios, and later televisions. He didn't have an inkling that "toll broadcasting" was broadcast's money machine.

https://www.entrepreneur.com/leader...ted-an-industry-that-changed-the-world/238360

Sarnoff started off in the business hating advertising, seeing it as "a new and noisy method of letting peddlers into your home," according to Empire of the Air by Tom Lewis. He initially had wanted to make radio a public service and hoped to pay for his talent -- opera divas and renowned orchestra conductors -- by selling radio sets made by RCA.

In the late 1920s, when competition from CBS' William Paley forced Sarnoff to take on an increasing number of advertisers, he avoided meeting with ad executives, delegating the odious task to subordinates.

 

[Strimp]

You said Q3 2023 looks soft. These things are not happening till 2024. Again, nothing in the call points toward soft bookings. Stop moving the goal posts.

Plus, I am not sure any of the 2024 changes are things that will drive more people to book. It just gives people the ability pre-pay Disney for meals and line skipping. Feels like a bigger win for Disney.

Christine McCarthy from the earnings call transcript:

"Please keep in mind that in the back half of this fiscal year, there will be an unfavorable comparison against the prior year's incredibly successful 50th anniversary celebration at Walt Disney World. We typically see some moderation in demand as we lap these types of events, and third quarter-to-date performance has been in line with those historical trends."

I would say that points to softening

 

[RivShore]

Christine McCarthy from the earnings call transcript:

"Please keep in mind that in the back half of this fiscal year, there will be an unfavorable comparison against the prior year's incredibly successful 50th anniversary celebration at Walt Disney World. We typically see some moderation in demand as we lap these types of events, and third quarter-to-date performance has been in line with those historical trends."

I would say that points to softening

But certainly nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[Strimp]

IMO they can do both and it's probably really the only way D+ will make money.

I agree with this. I subscribe to Disney+ and Hulu and think a migration makes sense. The thing about Disney+ is the huge investment made under Bob C in content creation was just lacking. You can only have so many flops before one tunes out of the original content. Now, the consumer gets incentivized to keep Disney+ because it will cost more and feature less content spend (an odd combination for hitting profitability) by 2024. Hindsight being 2020, Disney+ probably would have driven roughly the same numbers for their library and access to new theatrical.

 

[Strimp]

But certainly nothing out of the ordinary.

Definitely, but I think those comments combined with the anecdotal reports of lower crowds and more aggressive discounts along with the changes in park reservations/return of dining plan all points to a realization from Disney that there are indications of softening they are trying to get ahead of.