DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

The problem with the stock is that every part of Disney's business has questions and uncertainties about the future.

Linear - this has been getting scrutinized for years as it has been shrinking with no real stabilization happening.

Parks - Extremely soft summer reported by Universal and more competition coming with Epic Universe opening next year.

Streaming - Probably the one segment with the least questions at the moment but still, can Disney increase ARPU enough as it pales in comparison to Netflix. As Netflix stops reported some key metrics about subscribers, will Disney follow suit.

The company is doing much better free cash and profit wise compared to the previous few years but it stands to reason, how high can it go. The investments in the parks should, in theory, should help keep that segment in a growth trajectory and as an investor, the $60B stated investment would not be seen as a liability nor hurt the stock. Plus, the $60B is not even a liability, they can choose not to invest anything at all if they want to.

Streaming is at a key point as this should become a consistent growth driver for both revenue and profits from this point on. This will become the largest part of Disney's financials, certainly in terms of revenue and one would hope, profits as well. This segment can help mitigate a lot of park fears anytime a story might come out about soft attendance.
That is a good summary of reasons for the stock drifting these many months.

Add to it the whole CEO succession question and Disney's history of horrible transitions.

And add all the selling pressure after the proxy fight, not only did Peltz and company sell but you had all the momentum players jump in the stock during that time, they are all gone now with no new catalysts for stock moves on the horizon.

I had not thought of streaming having the least questions but you are probably right. What a shocking turnaround that the stock gets no credit for it.
 
Disney just needs to continue with the good box office performance and get some better stuff going on Disney+. They seem to be turning the corner with some hits in recent months. Maybe they are done making bad decisions on what to green light and make.
 
Not sure if I'd trust Disney's forward P/E guidance until we see actual performance to back it up - Disney+ has been a money sink and there's still a significant risk of faster cord cutting harming earnings faster than Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ growing profitability.
But if there were any significant changes to their profit guidance, they would have messaged that already and analysts would be taking it into account. A penny or 2 shortfall, sure that can happen but anything more than that should never happen (barring something unforeseen and not taken into account, like a recession).
I think the $60B investment might be dragging down the stock valuation for the time being until some return is seen on it. Right now that's a $60 billion liability on the balance sheet.
I don't think that is the case at all, the $60B over 10 years is just a target of $6B a year, it may happen, it may not happen. And it can be completely funded by FCF, no need for debt. Even with that spend, they are still projecting exceeding pre-pandemic FCF. I really don't see how that has any negative impact on the stock. Investing in your most profitable business is almost always a net positive to the company and the stock.
 

Here's what Zack's opines.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-dis-reports-next-140115025.html

Walt Disney (DIS) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
Zacks Equity Research
Wed, Jul 31, 2024, 9:01 AM CDT

Zacks Consensus Estimate

This entertainment company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.20 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +16.5%.

Revenues are expected to be $22.86 billion, up 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.
 
Here's what Zack's opines.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/walt-disney-dis-reports-next-140115025.html

Walt Disney (DIS) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
Zacks Equity Research
Wed, Jul 31, 2024, 9:01 AM CDT

Zacks Consensus Estimate

This entertainment company is expected to post quarterly earnings of $1.20 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +16.5%.

Revenues are expected to be $22.86 billion, up 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.
So Disney has actually been very conservative on their EPS guidance. From Zacks':

For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Disney would post earnings of $1.12 per share when it actually produced earnings of $1.21, delivering a surprise of +8.04%.

Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates four times.


And the details, if needed:

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Last edited:
https://deadline.com/2024/07/disney-entertainment-television-layoffs-national-geographic-1236026106/

Disney Entertainment Television Lays Off 140, National Geographic Heavily Impacted
By Nellie Andreeva - Co-Editor-in-Chief, TV
@DeadlineNellie
July 31, 2024 - 11:00am PDT

https://variety.com/2024/tv/news/disney-layoffs-television-1236091773/
Jul 31, 2024 - 12:05pm PDT
Disney Lays Off 140 Employees in Television Division
by Rebecca Rubin
Sad to see National G hit so hard. I really enjoy the beauty of their work. Always have. It is such a good connection to Walt Disney's long history in wildlife and natural environment production.
 
Sad to see National G hit so hard. I really enjoy the beauty of their work. Always have. It is such a good connection to Walt Disney's long history in wildlife and natural environment production.
Been a fan of Nat Geo ever since I was a youngster. I still browse my collection from the 40s through the early 2000s. Learned a lot of photography tips and exciting places to visit and see.
 
Sad to see National G hit so hard. I really enjoy the beauty of their work. Always have. It is such a good connection to Walt Disney's long history in wildlife and natural environment production.
Bob Iger has become too corporate and only cares about money and greed than allowing creativity. He needs to go sooner than 2026.
 
New analyst note:

Walt Disney's Parks Business Merits 'a More Cautious View,' Morgan Stanley Says
10:55:55 AM ET, 08/05/2024 - MT Newswires

10:55 AM EDT, 08/05/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Walt Disney's (DIS) parks business merits "a more cautious view" in fiscal 2025, though its studios are outperforming, Morgan Stanley said in a note e-mailed Monday.
The media and entertainment giant's shares have dropped 23% since its fiscal Q2 results in May, according to Morgan Stanley. The sell-off likely factors in "understandable concerns" over the macroeconomic backdrop, especially for Disney's theme parks, the brokerage said.
"We see this correction as a buying opportunity in shares, with only 10% downside to our bear case at this point," Morgan Stanley said. "We see Disney's parks and resorts business as uniquely attractive for investors, a key driver of long-term earnings growth and supportive of a premium multiple for [Disney] shares."
The brokerage said the company's studios are outperforming. "Content strength is key to shares over time and should benefit Disney+ revenue growth along the way," according to the note.
Morgan Stanley reduced its price target on the Disney stock to $110 from $130 while maintaining its overweight rating.
The company is scheduled to report its fiscal Q3 results Wednesday.
Disney shares were down 1.4% in recent trading amid a weak broader market.
Price: 88.29, Change: -1.28, Percent Change: -1.43
 





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