DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

[RivShore]

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Deadpool-and-Wolverine-(2024)#tab=box-office
Deadpool 3: $205m estimated opening. $438m worldwide.

Inside Out pushing toward $1.5b worldwide

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes crawling towards $400m in limited theatres, ahead of its Hulu release date.

‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ snares $205 million domestic opening, highest R-rated debut ever​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/28/deadpool-and-wolverine-box-office-opening-tops-205-million.html

 

[Cfabar1]

what a difference one year makes!

 

[wabbott]

DIS' press release.

https://thewaltdisneycompany.com/deadpool-and-wolvering-box-office/

July 28, 2024
‘Deadpool & Wolverine’ Breaks Box Office Records with Largest R-rated Global Opening Ever

 

[RivShore]

what a difference one year makes!

Unfortunately, these two gigantic hits from a studio thought dead, has done nothing for the stock - it's exactly where it was a year ago, in the high 80's. Will we see something to the upside on Monday?

 

[clarker99]

Unfortunately, these two gigantic hits from a studio thought dead, has done nothing for the stock - it's exactly where it was a year ago, in the high 80's. Will we see something to the upside on Monday?

only positive is that $DIS dividend hit my account on Friday.

 

[wabbott]

I celebrated - grandly - that occasion yesterday!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1803967195938013537

 

[clarker99]

Unfortunately, these two gigantic hits from a studio thought dead, has done nothing for the stock - it's exactly where it was a year ago, in the high 80's. Will we see something to the upside on Monday?

Honestly, I am just hoping the computer algorithms start buying. Lol.

We know the KPI’s are good. With the studios turned around (hopefully) the only thing declining is Linear.

The catalyst is DTC and we have been told over and over that any sustained and meaningful profits should start in Q4.

D23 is 2 days after the call.

In 2.5 weeks we should have a lot to talk about. And if I know these boards, it will all be rational. Lol.

 

[RivShore]

And if I know these boards, it will all be rational. Lol.

Get your popcorn ready!

 

[Cfabar1]

For the life of me I don't understand why the stock isn't trading around $120 or so right now.... So many things have improved, streaming is profitable, movies are making big dollars...

I feel like DIS is being lumped in with companies like Paramount/WBD that are truly and utter failures...

Or maybe the street feels that Netflix is the dominant player and it is all over. I haven't had a Netflix account since 2017 or so... Don't miss it one bit, but have all three Disney products...

That said, linear will continue to decline, and needs to reinvent itself. Comcast has definitely exceeded at this - they understand they are in an existential crisis and are clearly doing a "throw everything at the wall" approach with streaming right now...

 

[wabbott]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
92.53 +2.60 (+2.89%)
As of 1:18 PM EDT. Market Open.

 

[clarker99]

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
92.53 +2.60 (+2.89%)
As of 1:18 PM EDT. Market Open.

Honestly, I am just hoping the computer algorithms start buying. Lol.

The computer algorithms have awoken. Lol.

 

[RivShore]

Was just about to say that! Not a bad day and hopefully it gains some momentum with all the news on deck.

 

[HokieRaven5]

‘Deadpool and Wolverine’ snares $205 million domestic opening, highest R-rated debut ever​

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/07/28/deadpool-and-wolverine-box-office-opening-tops-205-million.html

Updated Domestic Opening weekend at $211.4M.

https://www.the-numbers.com/movie/Deadpool-and-Wolverine-(2024)#tab=box-office

 

[wabbott]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/disneyland-workers-ratify-contract-averted-132924272.html

Disneyland workers ratify contract that averted strike
by Christi Carras
Tue, July 30, 2024 at 8:29 AM CDT

According to the Master Services Council, the three-year agreements contain pay increases amounting to $6.10 an hour over the life of the contract, a higher minimum wage of $24 an hour in 2024, additional compensation bumps for senior employees and a more flexible attendance policy for custodians, ride operators, candy makers, merchandise clerks and other workers who keep Disneyland running.

 

[Kingkonig]

For the life of me I don't understand why the stock isn't trading around $120 or so right now.... So many things have improved, streaming is profitable, movies are making big dollars...

From a quick glance, the P/E Ratio of over 100 is pretty glaring. When they get earnings back under control the price should rise a little bit, but Disney should not be priced as a “growth/tech” stock since they’re a mature company. Sure a pivot to streaming should help the tech side of the company grow, but that is to offset the cable and theater side of the business.

 

[RivShore]

From a quick glance, the P/E Ratio of over 100 is pretty glaring. When they get earnings back under control the price should rise a little bit, but Disney should not be priced as a “growth/tech” stock since they’re a mature company. Sure a pivot to streaming should help the tech side of the company grow, but that is to offset the cable and theater side of the business.

Given the earnings issues they have worked thru over the last year or so, probably makes more sense to look at the forward PE - a pretty dang reasonable 17 and pretty close to their pre-pandemic average. I guess the question is how much of a better company are they today vs. back then? Steaming, much better with a solid #2 position and study profitability on the way, parks and cruise are still holding study and always seem able to increase per quest spending but are those enough to overcome liniers decline and increased sports rights costs and a possible travel slowdown? And does profitable streaming earn the stock Netflix type multiples (which is what drove it to $200 for a time)?

 

[clarker99]

From a quick glance, the P/E Ratio of over 100 is pretty glaring. When they get earnings back under control the price should rise a little bit, but Disney should not be priced as a “growth/tech” stock since they’re a mature company. Sure a pivot to streaming should help the tech side of the company grow, but that is to offset the cable and theater side of the business.

Need to look at Fwd PE. The stock price pre-Covid was $150ish. They are on pace to produce cash flows at or above pre-pandemic levels in FY24. There is really no good reason why it is sitting in the low $90's given profits and cash flow guidance.

 

[RivShore]

Need to look at Fwd PE. The stock price pre-Covid was $150ish. They are on pace to produce cash flows at or above pre-pandemic levels in FY24. There is really no good reason why it is sitting in the low $90's given profits and cash flow guidance.

Thanks Clarker99, I forgot to mention cash flow. And they are exceeding pre-pandemic FCF with dividends and buy backs back in place and lets not forget $60B in Experience investments.

 

[Kingkonig]

Need to look at Fwd PE. The stock price pre-Covid was $150ish. They are on pace to produce cash flows at or above pre-pandemic levels in FY24. There is really no good reason why it is sitting in the low $90's given profits and cash flow guidance.

Not sure if I'd trust Disney's forward P/E guidance until we see actual performance to back it up - Disney+ has been a money sink and there's still a significant risk of faster cord cutting harming earnings faster than Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ growing profitability.

Thanks Clarker99, I forgot to mention cash flow. And they are exceeding pre-pandemic FCF with dividends and buy backs back in place and lets not forget $60B in Experience investments.

I think the $60B investment might be dragging down the stock valuation for the time being until some return is seen on it. Right now that's a $60 billion liability on the balance sheet. When/if park visitor spending goes up after the investment starts, numbers will be a little more solid and investors might give Disney the benefit of the doubt.

 

[bryaalre]

Not sure if I'd trust Disney's forward P/E guidance until we see actual performance to back it up - Disney+ has been a money sink and there's still a significant risk of faster cord cutting harming earnings faster than Disney+/Hulu/ESPN+ growing profitability.


I think the $60B investment might be dragging down the stock valuation for the time being until some return is seen on it. Right now that's a $60 billion liability on the balance sheet. When/if park visitor spending goes up after the investment starts, numbers will be a little more solid and investors might give Disney the benefit of the doubt.

The problem with the stock is that every part of Disney's business has questions and uncertainties about the future.

Linear - this has been getting scrutinized for years as it has been shrinking with no real stabilization happening.

Parks - Extremely soft summer reported by Universal and more competition coming with Epic Universe opening next year.

Streaming - Probably the one segment with the least questions at the moment but still, can Disney increase ARPU enough as it pales in comparison to Netflix. As Netflix stops reported some key metrics about subscribers, will Disney follow suit.

The company is doing much better free cash and profit wise compared to the previous few years but it stands to reason, how high can it go. The investments in the parks should, in theory, should help keep that segment in a growth trajectory and as an investor, the $60B stated investment would not be seen as a liability nor hurt the stock. Plus, the $60B is not even a liability, they can choose not to invest anything at all if they want to.

Streaming is at a key point as this should become a consistent growth driver for both revenue and profits from this point on. This will become the largest part of Disney's financials, certainly in terms of revenue and one would hope, profits as well. This segment can help mitigate a lot of park fears anytime a story might come out about soft attendance.