DIS Shareholders and Stock Info ONLY

After pretty bad Airbnb earnings and their discussion about slower/later bookings, very pleased to see the parks and occupancy holding up well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/06/air...ss-as-company-warns-of-slowing-us-demand.html

Airbnb shares drop 14% on earnings miss as company warns of slowing U.S. demand

Published Tue, Aug 6 2024 - 4:13 PM EDT

by Rohan Goswami @in/rohangoswamicnbc/@rogoswami

Key Points
  • The vacation rental company warned that it expected moderation in year-over-year growth in its key “Nights and Experiences” category, relative to the current quarter.
  • It also cautioned that it was “seeing shorter booking lead times globally and some signs of slowing demand from U.S. guests.”
  • Airbnb said users booked 125.1 million Nights and Experiences, its highest second-quarter result.
 

Disney Says It May Have to Pay Additional $5 Billion for Hulu​

10:43 AM ET, 08/07/2024 - MT Newswires

10:43 AM EDT, 08/07/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Walt Disney (DIS) said Wednesday it may have to pay an additional $5 billion to
Comcast's (CMCSK) NBC Universal unit for its 33% stake in Hulu.
An arbitration process that began in May will determine how much, if any, additional money Disney must pay NBC Universal for its share of the streaming service, Disney said in its quarterly earnings report.
According to the entertainment giant, Disney said its appraiser during the initial arbitration phase valued Hulu at at least $27.5 billion, while NBC's appraiser arrived at a valuation "substantially in excess" of its estimate.
Once arbitration is complete, the final equity fair value will account for the valuation of a third appraiser, Disney said.
If the that appraiser's valuation is equal to Disney's valuation, it wouldn't be required to pay NBC Universal any more money. If the appraiser's determination is consistent with the NBC Universal's valuation, Disney could be required to pay an additional $5 billion. If the appraiser's equity fair value determination falls between those of Disney's and NBC Universal's, Disney would pay between nothing and $5 billion, according to Disney.
Comcast and NBC Universal did not immediately respond to MT Newswires requests for comment.
Meanwhile, Disney disclosed it acquired an incremental 5% interest in Epic Games in April for $1 billion before acquiring an additional 2% stake in the videogame maker in July for $500 million, bringing Disney's total interest in the company to about 8%.
Will this affect Hulu on Disney+? If Disney doesn't pay the $5B, they would have to sell Hulu to Comcast.
 
Will this affect Hulu on Disney+? If Disney doesn't pay the $5B, they would have to sell Hulu to Comcast.
The $5B number is more or less the worst case scenario that Disney is more or less obligated to say to investors. The payment to Comcast will most certainly be lower.

Comcast will not buy Hulu. For Comcast to get an additional $5B from Disney, it would mean that Hulu is valued at $42.5B. That valuation means Comcast would need to pay Disney $37.5B and that is not realistic.

Disney has already spent the money integrating Hulu into Disney Plus and spent the corresponding advertising. Plus, as stated, the $5B is a worst case. Disney may not have to spend anymore for Hulu, though that is also very unlikely to occur.
 

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/07/business/media/disney-earnings-parks.html

Disney’s Parks Struggle, Exposing a New Trouble Spot
Companywide profit increased, the result of hit movies and streaming growth. But Disney said softening theme park demand “could impact the next few quarters.”

By Brooks Barnes
Reporting from Los Angeles
Aug. 7, 2024, 7:00 a.m. ET

In Disney’s seemingly never-ending game of corporate Whac-a-Mole, a new trouble spot has arisen: Americans — battered by years of high inflation — have less money to spend on amusement, imperiling growth at Disney theme parks.
Editors, forever in search of a click bait headline... Iger/Johnston clearly guided that future Parks demand is flat (with Johnston outright saying they are happy with future bookings). Any YoY reductions in Parks OI will be due to margins being trimmed. Demand is not softening, pricing seems to be.

Also, Q3 revenue was up 3% vs. Comcast Theme Parks revenue being down 10.5%. Operating Income was down 3% but Comcast Theme Parks EBITDA was down 25%.
 
Editors, forever in search of a click bait headline... Iger/Johnston clearly guided that future Parks demand is flat (with Johnston outright saying they are happy with future bookings). Any YoY reductions in Parks OI will be due to margins being trimmed. Demand is not softening, pricing seems to be.

Also, Q3 revenue was up 3% vs. Comcast Theme Parks revenue being down 10.5%. Operating Income was down 3% but Comcast Theme Parks EBITDA was down 25%.
So it is a screaming buy at this price?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
86.93 -3.04 (-3.38%)
As of 1:28 PM EDT. Market Open.
 
Maybe. I think the big uncertainty is whether or not ESPN survives the transition from linear to over the top without too much damage. That new ESPN/Fox/WB bundle is going to be $43/month.
 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/com...ers-can-t-smooth-parks-rough-ride/ar-AA1ooYsV

Disney’s Blockbusters Can’t Smooth Parks’ Rough Ride
Weakening consumer spending is hurting the Mouse House in its most profitable business

By Dan Gallagher
Updated Aug. 7, 2024 12:52 pm ET

Disney is getting more people out of the house these days. Just not to the right places.

The storied Hollywood company is riding high from the success of two recent box-office smashes. “Inside Out 2” and “Deadpool & Wolverine” are now the top-grossing movies globally and the former’s debut in mid-June provided a nice lift to Disney’s theatrical business in the company’s fiscal third quarter. The company said Wednesday that revenue in its entertainment division grew 4% year over year to $10.58 billion, topping Wall Street’s projections for the first time in nine quarters, according to FactSet.

But box-office receipts only do so much for Disney nowadays. The company’s theme-park business turned in disappointing revenue and operating profit for the quarter, with domestic-parks revenue showing its slowest revenue growth since Covid-era shutdowns. The company cited “economic uncertainty that is impacting consumers” and warned that the weakness would likely persist for “a few quarters.” The company’s shares were down 2.9% in early afternoon trading on Wednesday.

That further weighs on a stock that had already shed 23% of its value since its last quarterly report three months ago, when Disney first warned of weakness impacting its parks. The decline of the cable-TV business and growth of the far-less-profitable streaming side has given theme parks a starring role on Disney’s bottom line. Combined operating profits from domestic and international parks accounted for 54% of Disney’s total operating income in the last fiscal year ended September, compared with a 26% contribution averaged in the five years before the pandemic

Other factors are weighing on profit as well. Disney is adding three new ships to its cruise business over the next 18 months, and start-up costs associated with those launches will be “a little over double” in the next fiscal year compared with the current one, according to Disney Chief Financial Officer Hugh Johnston on Wednesday’s investor call. The overall cruise industry has been performing well lately and reporting strong bookings for the year ahead, which speaks well of Disney’s ultimate prospects there.

But weakened consumer spending that has also hit rival theme-park operators bodes poorly for Disney as it works to cope with the broad industry shifts that have hit the media industry with a vengeance. Revenue from the linear networks unit, comprising the company’s traditional cable and TV businesses, fell 7% year over year due to a drop in both affiliate fees and advertising. It came in below Wall Street’s projections for the September quarter. Sports helped offset some of that weakness; ESPN’s domestic revenue rose 5% year over year to about $3.9 billion.

Disney also managed to hit its profitability goal for its streaming business a quarter earlier than it originally projected. Combined direct-to-consumer operating profits for the entertainment and sports segments were $47 million compared with a loss of $512 million in the same period last year. That was helped by a surprising bit of growth for Disney+, which added about 700,000 net new subscribers to its core segment during a period when Wall Street was expecting a decline. The company noted that the original “Inside Out” film from 2015 drove much of that traffic as that movie racked up more than 100 million views ahead of and following the release of the sequel.

That speaks well to the multiplier effect—often referred to as a flywheel—that has long been the strength of Disney’s business model. Original theatrical content has typically driven other business opportunities for the company, such as video sales, consumer products and theme-park attractions. The company also has a strong pipeline of other potential theatrical blockbusters from its animated, Marvel and Star Wars franchises in the queue. That is a major change from just three years ago when the focus was almost solely on streaming.

But the parks business will need to get over its slump to convince investors to come along for the ride. And that will be a rough ride for a bit longer: The company said operating income in the experiences business will see a mid-single-digit percentage decline in the current quarter, compared with the 12% rise Wall Street had been expecting, according to FactSet estimates.

Without theme parks, Disney’s flywheel is a bit of a flat tire.

Write to Dan Gallagher at dan.gallagher@wsj.com
 
I don't think it's a screaming buy but I did buy some at this price. If it drops below 80 than I think it is more of a screaming buy and will load up on some shares. The forward PE is starting to look very attractive and the cash flows the company is generating are becoming very appealing.

I like the prospect of streaming as it turns into more of the focal point for the company. The parks I am expecting a bit of a pull back with the global economy fears and Epic Universe but as we know, it's cyclical and will grow again. Linear will continue to decline but I think it will continue to generate a good amount of profits and cash until streaming inevitably overtakes it.
 
So it is a screaming buy at this price?

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DIS/

The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
86.93 -3.04 (-3.38%)
As of 1:28 PM EDT. Market Open.
I don't think it's a screaming buy but I did buy some at this price. If it drops below 80 than I think it is more of a screaming buy and will load up on some shares. The forward PE is starting to look very attractive and the cash flows the company is generating are becoming very appealing.

I like the prospect of streaming as it turns into more of the focal point for the company. The parks I am expecting a bit of a pull back with the global economy fears and Epic Universe but as we know, it's cyclical and will grow again. Linear will continue to decline but I think it will continue to generate a good amount of profits and cash until streaming inevitably overtakes it.
I bought last time around when it was at this level. If it falls into the 70's, it will be hard to resist.

This is my take. The KPI's are very strong and the company is in a far better place than it was when the stock popped to $200 and especially better than when streaming was bleeding $4B/year and we had 2 quarters where the media side of the company was in such bad shape that Chapek was ousted.

I am not really sure what to say. I am not some $DIS bull but the current price makes no sense. It is far to low based on the profit and cash flow. My bets were placed on streaming coming good and thinking the stock price would follow. Somewhere bw the $200 share price and turning an actual operating profit on streaming and breaking Parks records several times over, Wall Street has just ignored Disney.

I just don't see the doom and gloom.
 
I bought last time around when it was at this level. If it falls into the 70's, it will be hard to resist.

This is my take. The KPI's are very strong and the company is in a far better place than it was when the stock popped to $200 and especially better than when streaming was bleeding $4B/year and we had 2 quarters where the media side of the company was in such bad shape that Chapek was ousted.

I am not really sure what to say. I am not some $DIS bull but the current price makes no sense. It is far to low based on the profit and cash flow. My bets were placed on streaming coming good and thinking the stock price would follow. Somewhere bw the $200 share price and turning an actual operating profit on streaming and breaking Parks records several times over, Wall Street has just ignored Disney.

I just don't see the doom and gloom.
I think part of the problem is WS has had just about enough of old Bob. In the good old days of Bob 1.0 (not that long ago, really), he could sweet talk the stock price up after such a good earnings report and great BO news. Now WS just ignores him and all the good news. I think we are stuck until we get a new CEO who all the stakeholders will have confidence in.
 
I bought last time around when it was at this level. If it falls into the 70's, it will be hard to resist.

This is my take. The KPI's are very strong and the company is in a far better place than it was when the stock popped to $200 and especially better than when streaming was bleeding $4B/year and we had 2 quarters where the media side of the company was in such bad shape that Chapek was ousted.

I am not really sure what to say. I am not some $DIS bull but the current price makes no sense. It is far to low based on the profit and cash flow. My bets were placed on streaming coming good and thinking the stock price would follow. Somewhere bw the $200 share price and turning an actual operating profit on streaming and breaking Parks records several times over, Wall Street has just ignored Disney.

I just don't see the doom and gloom.
A very logical argument and thanks for the honest answer.

The stock market often is wrong over the short term and a lot of money has been made by picking companies that have a bright future, but for whatever reason remain undiscovered by most investors. Think Warren Buffett and Peter Lynch as folks who could "see" the future.

With DIS, my thinking hasn't changed much. It is my contention that the parks, especially the domestic parks have been neglected to the point that they have been damaged. They have been starved of maintenance personnel and supplies and denied sufficient capex to keep up with demand. CM morale is noticeably stale.

For example, on our trip to WDW this past April, we were in MK for a noon lunch our last day. On Main Street, a entire box of popcorn had been spilled. No big, deal, I thought, happens all the time. But 1 1/2 hours later after our lunch, we were walking back along the same part of the street, and there was that popcorn, all mashed down and scattered halfway across the street.

To me, it was a horrifying sight - something I had never seen before at WDW. You have to know that dozens of CMs had seen the mess but no one made an effort to sweep it up. If CMs have lost the motivation to keep the place clean, then guest interactions are also sub-standard.

With content - sports, linear tv, streaming, movies, etc - I believe the explosion of digital availablity has made the product much cheaper. Everyone can make their own movies (YouTube) and old stuff from Westerns to Drama is available somewhere on the cloud. Why bother tuning in to ABC prime-time for a TV show you've never seen, when you can watch an old movie or tv series that you would enjoy watching again?

True, DIS is a movie studio first and foremost, but they better come up with some high quality product to stand out and make customers want to buy. It can be done, as evidence by this year's blockbusters.

IMO, management has been derelict by neglecting the high-margin product (parks) and spending too much time focusing on a low-margin commodity product (content). I can't imagine DIS having the scale and volume of content to ever match the margins of the parks and cruises.

I hope I'm wrong, because I want the Disney that I grew old with will be there for future kids to enjoy.
 
Just listened to the call. Super short - no preamble touting all the good stuff in Q3 and the amazing BO records set in the Q4. Bob is really phoning it in at this point. We can't move on soon enough!!
 
Just listened to the call. Super short - no preamble touting all the good stuff in Q3 and the amazing BO records set in the Q4. Bob is really phoning it in at this point. We can't move on soon enough!!
careful for what you wish for.... I'm not really sure any of the up and comers are visionaries.... In essence Disney has turned into a corporate monolith of several entertainment mega brands.... I think it was necessary for them to survive, and what Iger did was incredible.
 
Down almost 6.5-7% since opening yesterday. The PE and especially EV appear to be pretty high regardless/independent of the 30% increase in projection the CFO touted yesterday. I think it's got a chance to go sub-$80 in the next couple of days.
 
Just have to wait for Disney or the bloggers to post about it with no livestreams happening.
I am disappointed there won't be a livestream. Not sure why they wouldn't livestream of an event they have called the biggest ever but they live streamed D23 in 2022 where they essentially had nothing to show.
 
I am disappointed there won't be a livestream. Not sure why they wouldn't livestream of an event they have called the biggest ever but they live streamed D23 in 2022 where they essentially had nothing to show.
Has a bit of a Comic Con feel to it. People spend a ton of money to go to these things and especially with them expanding it out, they want to make sure they're giving ticketholders value. Same way that they show CC guests exclusives at panels. If they just livestream the whole thing there's less incentive to go.

That said I'm guessing they publish the big news as it comes out or very soon afterwards.
 














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