Direct price Increases and speculation?

[ajsanford]

What do you all think will happen after the current incentives and direct prices expire after May 12th? Any speculation?

We want to buy VGF (which there is a waitlist...), but we are also open to RIV direct.
I am still trying to get my husband on board with purchasing DVC - He has said, "okay," but I want him to be excited as it is a big purchase. I am not sure exactly when or if that will happen. Maybe after we actually stay in a DVC property!

 

[Letsoflyakite]

I can see a similar inflationary increase in direct DVC as we have seen in resale, perhaps 10% across the board.

With continued money printing....buckle up, its going to be The wildest ride in the wilderness!

 

[MICKIMINI]

I agree! To infinity and beyond!

Honestly, I'd look for a deal on a small resale at a resort you want in the right UY and then plan a stay. Depending on which resort you buy and what you pay, you can actually get a big chunk back right off the bat vs rack rates. An enjoyable visit (try for a 1 BR if you can) might help twist him arm LOL! Good luck!

 

[Red Dog Run]

I read several times: The cheapest time to buy is when you are ready. I did the the ready purchases and then "waited to see..." That did not work out as well. Paid 25-30 dollars more a point by holding out a couple of months. Just bought another last week and the prices this week for BLT are even higher. If I don't get at least 35% off direct, I don't buy. That's my rule of thumb.

 

[Bobb_o]

Why not buy resale VGF?

 

[MomOTwins]

We waffled on buying in March before the last round of discounts expired and got burned as the discount went wayyy down for Riviera. Learned our lesson and bought in April to avoid getting hit with another May 12 reduction in discounts.

 

[🍀TwinsMom]

Honest, if you can afford it and you know you want it, get in now. We bought August of 2019 at $188 a point, then again December of 2020 at $173 (with promotion,) and now I am kicking myself not to have gotten more the last time, because to add on "just" another 100 points is now crazy expensive, and we don't "need" another 200 points of maintenance fees.

 

[Red Dog Run]

Why not buy resale VGF?

I'd love to.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

I just purchased a small VGF contract with last years points direct last week. Don’t assume there is a waitlist. Even so, get on the list. My salesman found me the points within the hour….

 

[Disneydude2022]

I think prices will continue to spike honestly. We are seeing real inflation across the board, no reason to expect all things Disney won’t be related

 

[VdoesDisney]

I think prices will continue to spike honestly. We are seeing real inflation across the board, no reason to expect all things Disney won’t be related

Agreed, I fully expect to see a corresponding price increase with direct, question is when, they don’t react to the market as quickly as resale does. I also wonder if they will increase select resorts only, SSR is one where the gap is closing much faster than the rest.

 

[Theta]

I just purchased a small VGF contract with last years points direct last week. Don’t assume there is a waitlist. Even so, get on the list. My salesman found me the points within the hour….

What size of VGF did you buy? Do you recall the closing costs on that contract?

 

[BWV Dreamin]

What size of VGF did you buy? Do you recall the closing costs on that contract?

60 pt.contract. I cant remember the closing off hand but around $500.

 

[BWV Dreamin]

What size of VGF did you buy? Do you recall the closing costs on that contract?

Just looked again today. There is a 75 pt. Contract listed resale for $219./pt…..

 

[Theta]

Just looked again today. There is a 75 pt. Contract listed resale for $219./pt…..

What is direct price? Did you get an incentive at VGF being a DVC member?

 

[macman123]

What is direct price? Did you get an incentive at VGF being a DVC member?

VGF is $255pp direct. No incentives currently on VGF as its waitlisted to buy

 

[RoseGold]

If you're trying to pitch VGF resale to your other half, might I suggest this math:
https://www.dvcresalemarket.com/blog/best-economical-dvc-resort-to-purchase-fall-2020/
I bought VGF over the summer in the 150s because I thought it had room to run. I didn't think it would be this fast. But even an extra $15-20 isn't huge in this chart, with this long of a contract. VGF is the smallest at WDW, and it is the flagship.

Find a contract with some banked points, and a VGF can be better math than even SSR, even at current prices. With VGF resale at this pricing, I'd expect to see a direct increase soon.

And LOW COMMITMENT. The cool thing about a resale contract is you can sell it tomorrow and have your money in a few weeks. VGF is in high demand, and I expect mine to at least hold for the <10 years I will hold, once my littles are done with princess dresses. Buying direct, and RIV in particular, is a gorilla of a 50 year commitment. A resale contract isn't all that, and that's OK.

 

[KTownRaider]

60 pt.contract. I cant remember the closing off hand but around $500.

Thanks for sharing your VGF experience. I've been monitoring the resale market for a small VGF contract (50-100pts) with my UY, and am really surprised about how close some of the smaller (and even some larger) resale contracts are approaching the direct $255/pt price. It's really makes me wonder if its worth the ROFR hassle and resale restrictions for a 14-20% discount on a 'small' dollar contract.

 

[RoseGold]

I don’t know where you are getting this math with a 14% discount. A 190 median is a lot, don’t get me wrong, but it’s nowhere close to 255. I wouldn’t describe that as “approaching” 255 at all.

 

[KTownRaider]

I don’t know where you are getting this math with a 14% discount. A 190 median is a lot, don’t get me wrong, but it’s nowhere close to 255. I wouldn’t describe that as “approaching” 255 at all.

I'm referring to smaller contracts (50-100 pt). Just using BWV Dreamin's example of the 75 pt contract at $219, that is a $36 discount or a 14% discount (255 x .86= $219.3). I'm not sure where the poster saw that contract, but I'm not doubting it. Just now, I did a simple search showing a couple similarly priced (DVC Resale Market)- $219 on a 50pt and $218 on an 80pt respectively.

Of course, YMMV, these are only asking. I did find a 100 pt contract for a more 'reasonable' $192 (more hovering around $200), but not in my UY (I still, at this point in time, want to try to maintain same use year).