Crowd level calendar increase

[delmar411]

I thought Star Wars weekends were always in May? I know that was going on when we went 3 years ago in May.

no they moved them to June for a couple years. Now they are back to starting in May. Much better heat wise for guests and the celebrities I think.

 

[NeverBeen2DW]

I won't even mention how long the lines to go to the bathroom were



Most of Illinois school have that same spring break Good friday till th 19th

I am in IL - Chicago area and ours kids last day is the 3rd (Chicago Public Schools) the go back the 14th. Chicago private schools already had theirs they went back last monday. The west suburbs of chicago most are this week (mon 3/31 - friday).

 

[JulieBarlow]

We are planning a trip in early December but it isn't booked yet. I am really, really hoping they don't decide to run another 4/3 offer after the free dining offer if it affects the crowd this much. Please Disney, just let the Christmas decorations draw the usual crowds.

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Don't forget, several people have posted that UG's (Touringplan's) crowd estimator formula also takes into account the wait times at the MK's "Big Three" (Space Mountain, Splash Mountain & Big Thunder Mountain).

Space Mountain is scheduled to close for it's rehab on April 19, I believe. Once it's closed, I imagine we'll see a related increase in the wait times for Splash Mountain and Big Thunder Mountain - as the people who would normally be riding/waiting in line for Space Mountain will be dispersed throughout the MK and many would be riding/waiting in line for the 2 other mountains.

Of course, that only takes MK into account, but still, if it's part of their crowd estimator formula, it makes sense.

So it sounds like it's a combination of Disney underestimating the success of the 4/3 deal and adding shows/increasing park times at the last-minute. As a result, the UG (Touringplans) sees that what they predicted to be 6's and 7's were actually 8's, 9's and 10's. And they update the rest of their numbers accordingly.

I am also under the belief that May won't be nearly as bad as the new numbers indicate. I'm confident the combination of Spring Break and the success of the 4/3 deal is what has been driving the crazy crowds the past few weeks. Spring Break is the multiplication factor in that formula. Once you remove it (i.e. late April/May), the effects shouldn't be as staggering.

However, I do believe the low May numbers we were originally going off of probably were too low and needed to be updated. I agree with some of the previous posters who said the UG might now be overestimating these crowds a bit to try to "cover their butts" (even though, as someone mentioned, they can't predict WDW crowds correctly when Disney can't predict them correctly themselves, so it's really no fault of their own).

Bottom line, I'm expecting 6's, 7's and 8's during most of May. Maybe an occasional 9 on the weekend. Granted, I'm not a professional and the forumula I'm using is "historical information + gut reaction".

I agree with this. I don't think we'll see 4's and 5's sad1, but I am thinking it might be more like 6's and 7's.

 

[kennythepirate]

I try to look at WDW hotel booking as a sign of how busy the parks will be. I can find nearly any resort at most levels for May 24-30. I'm still expecting 5 or 6 after memorial day.

 

[Yoshi]

I imagine they are doing this so the kids don't lose the tickets. If that's the case, I have a suggestion. Have the adult who is getting the tickets create a spreadsheet with each student's name and a place to write the ticket number. The tickets should be in a sequential number order - so you would only have to write the whole ticket number for the first one, and then just the 1-5 digit individual ticket number for each student. If anyone loses a ticket, you know exactly which ticket number that student had, and can go to guest relations to have it replaced. I saw someone doing exactly this the last time I went to guest relations at Epcot, and thought it was a great idea.

Thanks for the suggestion but I don't think it has to do with losing tickets or else they wouldn't allow them to keep the tickets at other days at the park. I wasn't at the meeting for the trip but fastpass wasn't even discussed at the meeting for my trip since at the time, the teachers didn't know it existed. I was told it had something to do with security or to make sure the kids don't do something and that is why it is only for 1 day but I don't know the exact reason. They didn't even tell the kids the exact reason.

The other issue is that there are over 200 kids going on this trip, I'm not sure how the school would handle that especially since they are taking multiple busses (they aren't using Disney Transportation) from the resort to the parks.

 

[NeverBeen2DW]

I try to look at WDW hotel booking as a sign of how busy the parks will be. I can find nearly any resort at most levels for May 24-30. I'm still expecting 5 or 6 after memorial day.

but did you click on them and try to reserve one? When you actually click on them and try to put a package together they often times come up not availible.

 

[3"Mouse"keteers]

I try to look at WDW hotel booking as a sign of how busy the parks will be. I can find nearly any resort at most levels for May 24-30. I'm still expecting 5 or 6 after memorial day.

Oh, how I hope you are right!

 

[jewelmicky]

^^^I keep reading this same advise everywhere. If everyone follows this advise, then it stands to reason that the afternoons will be less crowded as everyone will be hitting the parks early, resting in the afternoons, then going back to the parks later in the day. Oops did I just throw a monkey wrench in the mix?

Most Disney visitors will never visit the DIS or other planning sites, and thus won't even read that advice. And some who do read that advice just won't do it. We fall into that category. We know the most efficient approach to touring is to be there for rope drop every morning, but getting up that early just isn't a vacation for us so we generally don't do things that way.

EXACTLY!

The % of people that actually "research" their "vacation" to WDW then actually make a "plan" for the parks....then actually "use" their plan......has to be teeny

Most people i talk to laugh when I tell them of all the time I spend planning this trip.....of course most of them have never been to WDW, or are going for the 1st time.

I want to get the most out of my vacation....and I enjoy the planning. I am GLAD "those people" are going to make up the bulk of these 8-9's we are seeing predicted. But, I think they are over estimating.....at least I hope they are. I think it will be more like 6-8's with a good chunk of them being 1st timers.

 

[WaltD4Me]

I try to look at WDW hotel booking as a sign of how busy the parks will be. I can find nearly any resort at most levels for May 24-30. I'm still expecting 5 or 6 after memorial day.

I like checking the popular hotels near Disney too and I'm seeing availibility and almost all of them for the first week of May...and still some pretty good deals on them too. Most of the DTD hotels have availibility too. I'm taking that as a good sign for that week. -- Then again, I'm taking whatever I can think up as a good sign for that week.

I also think Disney and TP are still trying to figure things out. I just can't believe every single day from May 1st to basically August 17th could be or will be an 8 or higher.

 

[familyatdisney]

I like checking the popular hotels near Disney too and I'm seeing availibility and almost all of them for the first week of May...and still some pretty good deals on them too. Most of the DTD hotels have availibility too. I'm taking that as a good sign for that week. -- Then again, I'm taking whatever I can think up as a good sign for that week.

I also think Disney and TP are still trying to figure things out. I just can't believe every single day from May 1st to basically August 17th could be or will be an 8 or higher.

I check the Disney site for the first week in May and most resorts had availability for standard booking. I did not check the 4/3 deal. I also checked Disney resorts week of April 19th and only few resorts available, no value. Standard booking, I did not check the 4/3 deal. I did this last week, not sure if anything changed. Why does April 19th week have lower crowd levels then first week in May?

 

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Okay no more posting from my ipod. First there was duplicate post so I edited and now there is no post.

Anyway I also checked hotel availability for the first week of May. There was still a little availability on the 4/3 and the only hotel that is completely booked (even without the discount) was BC/YC. That looks encouraging.