Crowd level calendar increase

[Tarheel girl 1975]

Doesn't go below 8 until early August, which makes me doubt the accuracy of these predictions. I think they may be overreacting to the success of the discount programs which has no impact on offsite visitors - they don't get any kind of a break. JMO

But don't you think that occupancy rates off site might decrease as more people take advantage of the specials to stay on site?

 

[Yoshi]

They would still be able to use the FP's.....it doesn't matter what kind of tickets u have, open to all. They will not be able to Park Hop.

Once they get into the park, after the turnstyle the principals or teachers will actually take the tickets from the students on that 1 day so they can't get FP's. The tickets are park hoppers I guess since they are going to AK/EP one day and MK/Stuidos another day. On the MK/Studios day and Studios day they will be able to use Fastpass.

It was the same way when I went on my trip the only difference was in the years before my trip, the they collected the tickets everyday. My trip was the first year the school had went with Fastpass available and after we explained it to the teachers, they let us keep the tickets with us on the 2nd and 4th days of the trip (3rd day was a waterpark).

 

[sueh]

the buy 4/3 ends march 29......unless they extend it. i looked on line and there still seems to be alot of availability still for 1st week in may (when we are going).....i think/hope the numbers will come down after that.

The promotion period is through 8/8 but the last day to book the promotion is 3/29.

 

[julie007]

After reading this thread, I check our dates on TP. What was once a week of 7's, now are 8's and 9's. Yikes! I thought we were in a recession and people weren't taking expensive vacations! Oh well....

The deals they are offering the trip is much more affordable then it used to be. Also FLorida residents can't pass up the FL resident room rates that are thru the end of May and I am sure they will extend again. The crowds are higher people aren't spending as much though from what I am reading.

 

[ntsammy5]

I just added one day to our May stay at POFQ and there was NO problem.

 

[ksjayhawkfan]

We just made our ADRs this week and we arrive May 17. Granted we only made 2, but we were able to get several times on the day we wanted them.

 

[fla4fun]

Once they get into the park, after the turnstyle the principals or teachers will actually take the tickets from the students on that 1 day so they can't get FP's. The tickets are park hoppers I guess since they are going to AK/EP one day and MK/Stuidos another day. On the MK/Studios day and Studios day they will be able to use Fastpass.

It was the same way when I went on my trip the only difference was in the years before my trip, the they collected the tickets everyday. My trip was the first year the school had went with Fastpass available and after we explained it to the teachers, they let us keep the tickets with us on the 2nd and 4th days of the trip (3rd day was a waterpark).

I imagine they are doing this so the kids don't lose the tickets. If that's the case, I have a suggestion. Have the adult who is getting the tickets create a spreadsheet with each student's name and a place to write the ticket number. The tickets should be in a sequential number order - so you would only have to write the whole ticket number for the first one, and then just the 1-5 digit individual ticket number for each student. If anyone loses a ticket, you know exactly which ticket number that student had, and can go to guest relations to have it replaced. I saw someone doing exactly this the last time I went to guest relations at Epcot, and thought it was a great idea.

 

[doconeill]

I imagine they are doing this so the kids don't lose the tickets. If that's the case, I have a suggestion. Have the adult who is getting the tickets create a spreadsheet with each student's name and a place to write the ticket number. The tickets should be in a sequential number order - so you would only have to write the whole ticket number for the first one, and then just the 1-5 digit individual ticket number for each student. If anyone loses a ticket, you know exactly which ticket number that student had, and can go to guest relations to have it replaced. I saw someone doing exactly this the last time I went to guest relations at Epcot, and thought it was a great idea.

Photocopies of the backs of the tickets where the information is works as well, as long as the ticket info is readable.

 

[kennezgirl]

A while back there was someone who had written to the creator of the crow calculator and asked for an explanation as to why one day the first week of May was a 9 and the next was a 4. (Obviously before the numbers changed.) This person received a reply and posted it on a different thread. Has anyone tried to contact the creator again and ask what is behind the huge number increase?
I am very upset about this because I read and re-read the number information before deciding on a week late last year. My whole purpose was to avoid terrible crowds. I wish now that we had went with our other choice which was early November.

I know it is Disney & we will have a good time, but when you have to save for three years to make one trip, you want your money's worth....not to be standing in line and only seeing half of what you could when the crowds are manageable.

 

[doconeill]

A while back there was someone who had written to the creator of the crow calculator and asked for an explanation as to why one day the first week of May was a 9 and the next was a 4. (Obviously before the numbers changed.) This person received a reply and posted it on a different thread. Has anyone tried to contact the creator again and ask what is behind the huge number increase?
I am very upset about this because I read and re-read the number information before deciding on a week late last year. My whole purpose was to avoid terrible crowds. I wish now that we had went with our other choice which was early November.

I know it is Disney & we will have a good time, but when you have to save for three years to make one trip, you want your money's worth....not to be standing in line and only seeing half of what you could when the crowds are manageable.

I've already mentioned the reasons in THIS thread. They announced it specifically on the WDW Today podcast.

Disney seriously underestimated how many people would be enticed by the 4/3 deal - I think EVERYONE did. Since then, Disney has been increasing park hours, adding parades, etc. to accommodate the crowds - factors that the crowd calendar math depends on. Disney did a lot of that last minute as well - extending hours on the SAME DAY when necessary.

Specifically, the two factors that made them recompute the next several weeks (and even back a couple to verify against reports) was the increase in park hours and the addition of several Spectromagic parades during the week.

 

[Geeg]

I have nothing to compare it with, never having been to Walt Disney World before. Our first day ever there will be a 9. We haven't done any planning yet, eeek maybe I should start if it is going to be very crowded. Our original plan was get up when we woke up and get on the first bus that comes along and go to that park that day and just try and get food from restaurants when we could. Maybe we should revisit that?

 

[december14disney]

I've already mentioned the reasons in THIS thread. They announced it specifically on the WDW Today podcast.

Disney seriously underestimated how many people would be enticed by the 4/3 deal - I think EVERYONE did. Since then, Disney has been increasing park hours, adding parades, etc. to accommodate the crowds - factors that the crowd calendar math depends on. Disney did a lot of that last minute as well - extending hours on the SAME DAY when necessary.

Specifically, the two factors that made them recompute the next several weeks (and even back a couple to verify against reports) was the increase in park hours and the addition of several Spectromagic parades during the week.

Agree. While this does stink for those of us who are going down then (me included!)--what was touringplans.com supposed to do? They had their information based on Disney's original hours and parade schedules. They even stated that if they knew about the hours and additional parades they would have been spot on predicting 9's these past weeks. Even Disney didn't even know that it would be this crowded apparently! So, while these crowds will be bigger than we all thought I suppose we "can't shoot the messenger" in this case.

 

[ttbell]

I've already mentioned the reasons in THIS thread. They announced it specifically on the WDW Today podcast.

Disney seriously underestimated how many people would be enticed by the 4/3 deal - I think EVERYONE did. Since then, Disney has been increasing park hours, adding parades, etc. to accommodate the crowds - factors that the crowd calendar math depends on. Disney did a lot of that last minute as well - extending hours on the SAME DAY when necessary.

Specifically, the two factors that made them recompute the next several weeks (and even back a couple to verify against reports) was the increase in park hours and the addition of several Spectromagic parades during the week.

So for 2nd week in May, are they guessing that Disney will change the hours? I looked at the park hours (on Disney site) for the time we are going and the times have not changed. What hours would they be using as predictors for these increases in crowd level?

 

[doconeill]

So for 2nd week in May, are they guessing that Disney will change the hours? I looked at the park hours (on Disney site) for the time we are going and the times have not changed. What hours would they be using as predictors for these increases in crowd level?

Again, park hours are NOT the only factor they use. I don't know their entire formula, and I don't think they publicize it.

 

[rapriebe]

I've already mentioned the reasons in THIS thread. They announced it specifically on the WDW Today podcast.

Disney seriously underestimated how many people would be enticed by the 4/3 deal - I think EVERYONE did. Since then, Disney has been increasing park hours, adding parades, etc. to accommodate the crowds - factors that the crowd calendar math depends on. Disney did a lot of that last minute as well - extending hours on the SAME DAY when necessary.

Specifically, the two factors that made them recompute the next several weeks (and even back a couple to verify against reports) was the increase in park hours and the addition of several Spectromagic parades during the week.

If the reason for increasing the crowd numbers is the under-estimating of the popularity of the 4/3 deal, then why aren't the crowd numbers increased for the end of April also. They didn't increase the numbers until the first of May. There is a 10-day window after Easter and before May that is still showing low crowds. Would it be worth it to modify my dates and go 2 weeks earlier since we were specifically going during this time because of low crowds? I still can't believe that the first weeks of May will be 8s and 9s especially with kids still in school. This is confusing

 

[cowboymickey06]

These numbers are unbelievable to say the least...We are going April 30th to May 7th and the numbers have nearly doubled. With that being said, oh well!! I've made up my mind that I won't let anything spoil my trip. I'm going to relax and have a great time. There is so much to see and do at WDW it won't matter if the lines are outrageous. I'll have just as much fun watching and walking around the parks and resorts. I hope everyone who goes this year can relax and have a super time. Try not to sweat the small stuff. The way the world is right now, worrying about crowds and long lines ranks at the bottom of my worries. Enjoy life and your vacations.

 

[doconeill]

If the reason for increasing the crowd numbers is the under-estimating of the popularity of the 4/3 deal, then why aren't the crowd numbers increased for the end of April also. They didn't increase the numbers until the first of May. There is a 10-day window after Easter and before May that is still showing low crowds. Would it be worth it to modify my dates and go 2 weeks earlier since we were specifically going during this time because of low crowds? I still can't believe that the first weeks of May will be 8s and 9s especially with kids still in school. This is confusing

The numbers went up for April in some areas. We are there from the 19th-27th, and some of the hours changed. However, other factors still seem to indicate that during that period it won't be as bad as the week preceeding it.

I don't have all the answers!!! I am simply reporting why they said they recomputed the numbers, and why so late. I DON'T KNOW why May is expected to be crowded.

 

[delmar411]

If the reason for increasing the crowd numbers is the under-estimating of the popularity of the 4/3 deal, then why aren't the crowd numbers increased for the end of April also. They didn't increase the numbers until the first of May. There is a 10-day window after Easter and before May that is still showing low crowds. Would it be worth it to modify my dates and go 2 weeks earlier since we were specifically going during this time because of low crowds? I still can't believe that the first weeks of May will be 8s and 9s especially with kids still in school. This is confusing

I too find it hard to believe that it will be levels of 8/9 the first week in May. Everyone is just back from Spring Break and it's rather random IMO to have those levels when that would require numerous children out of school. Maybe TP has some sort of insider info about hotel bookings through CRO though and that's what is pushing those numbers?

Either way I'll be prepared for the worst and hoping for the best!

 

[MScott1851]

So for 2nd week in May, are they guessing that Disney will change the hours? I looked at the park hours (on Disney site) for the time we are going and the times have not changed. What hours would they be using as predictors for these increases in crowd level?

I will be there the same time as you. I also noticed that our hours haven't changed, nor have they added any shows/fireworks/parades, etc. And, like I said before, there is resort availablility EVERYWHERE. I even checked by trying to book the 4/3 deal online, just to see. The only place not available for that deal for my dates was Pop, and when I dropped a day, it became available. So I'm not freaking out at all.

I just can't see that particular week getting as crowded as a Spring Break week, or Easter, or after school lets out the end of May.

 

[pmdeve]

We are going June 6-16. Where can i find the crowd level calendar?