Crowd Forecasts and Resort Availability

[megs1313]

Sorry, I'm not sure where to post this.

I am looking at crowd forecasts for this fall and thinking about a last minute trip before my youngest turns 2 (so a cheaper trip than it will ever be again. LOL) and I'm getting confused. According to some of the crowd forecasters, early november should be around 5/10 for crowd level. That doesn't sound so bad, but when I go looking for an available room, I'm getting like only 4 available resorts. What gives? If the resorts are that full, won't the parks be insane? When I do the same search for rooms in september, there are TONS of available resorts, so will the crowds be non-existent in september? Do these two things not have anything to do with each other? Also, why are my resort choices so limited in november? I'm just shocked that all I have a chance at is AKL or an All Star fillintheblank.

 

[loutoo]

The simple answer is that on site hotel occupancy and park attendance are not always directly related, but September, due to the high heat and humidity, as well as the start to the US school year, is one of the absolute slowest times of the year,November is "slow to moderate", September is much slower.

The more in depth answer is this:

Each day, on average, approx 150,000 thousand guests visit the four major WDW theme parks. On the rare "slowest" days this number is around 80,000. On the busiest it is closer to 250,000. There are approx 30,000 onsite accommodations in WDW. This includes everything from standard hotel rooms to deluxe DVC (time share) grand villas. There are another 60,000 off site accommodations in the WDW area. That means on average only 1/3 of the guests are actually on property. During slow times WDW world goes out of its way to increase it's share of the hotel market by offering discount packages and free dining promotions, etc. this means that in September or November Disney might have 50% or even more of the park visitors staying on site due to the attractiveness of promotions. These deals mean popular onsite properties book quickly as soon as they are announced. This is, no doubt, what has lead to the lack availability for a potential November trip.

To sum up, If your goal is to go when the parks are least crowded, than September is your best bet, but November may be a better time to visit due to the weather. In Sept the average high is 90 and the humidity hits around 95% making real feel temps in the 110 range. In november the average high is 80 making for a much more pleasant experience

 

[ruthies12]

Just want to make sure you know that your kid is free until they turn 3. So if they are about to turn 2 then you still have a whole other year of being free!

 

[Jarmo]

Just want to make sure you know that your kid is free until they turn 3. So if they are about to turn 2 then you still have a whole other year of being free!

2 is the cutoff for free flights though.

(Prepare for the great lap child debate...)

 

[danny1649]

loutoo has given you advice on Sept.I don't disagree with statement in anyway. We have went several times in Sept. and experiences have been low crowds but still hot. Not July or August hot but still hot and less rain and sprinkles.

 

[AndiSlamberg]

November is free dining so while the parks won't be peak time busy the hotel's are because it's bringing all the off site people onsite. That's why you're having a hard time finding a resort.

 

[jtowntoflorida]

First, I think there have been some glitch in MDE/the booking system right for the past week or so because it's showing no availability at many resorts. It might have something to do with the minimum stay policy that Disney seems to want to enforce as well.

Also, make sure you're just looking for a room or package, but not a Special Offer (i.e., discount). There is limited availability for discounts, and the way MDE is set up, it will say there's no availability when really there's just no availability for that particular discount.

 

[Colleen27]

First, I think there have been some glitch in MDE/the booking system right for the past week or so because it's showing no availability at many resorts. It might have something to do with the minimum stay policy that Disney seems to want to enforce as well.

This is something that has come and gone for a while, but I've been seeing it consistently in Sept availability this year. If I search for the 4 night stay I want only the very priciest resorts come up. If I search for a full week's stay that includes my dates there's much more availability (still not what I'm looking for - the values look to be booked pretty solid through the Sept free dining stretch, so I guess I'm stuck with the moderate I booked. Life's tough, huh? ).

 

[megs1313]

Just want to make sure you know that your kid is free until they turn 3. So if they are about to turn 2 then you still have a whole other year of being free!

Actually I didn't know that! She counts in the room count though once she's 2, I think, which will make us a party of 5 and limits our resort choices.

 

[pmaurer74]

there is limited availability this fall. I spoke with a CM the other day and he said they were sending people to good neighbor hotels...

 

[DisneyWishes14]

I'm not sure what dates you are looking at in November, but November can be a very busy month with Jersey Week, the half marathon, Thanksgiving, etc. If you dates are flexible, I would play around with different weeks. You may also want to check Orbitz as they are a wholesaler and can show different availability than what is on the WDW site.

Actually I didn't know that! She counts in the room count though once she's 2, I think, which will make us a party of 5 and limits our resort choices.

Your DD doesn't count in room occupancy until she is 3, so you can look at rooms that have a 4 person capacity. Sometimes there is a glitch on the site that does not show 4 guest capacity rooms when putting in a child under 3. If this is the case, I would search for a room for 4 and then call WDW to make the reservation (and include your little one) if you see availability at a resort you like.

 

[Alice Sr.]

Sorry, I'm not sure where to post this.

I am looking at crowd forecasts for this fall and thinking about a last minute trip before my youngest turns 2 (so a cheaper trip than it will ever be again. LOL) and I'm getting confused. According to some of the crowd forecasters, early november should be around 5/10 for crowd level. That doesn't sound so bad, but when I go looking for an available room, I'm getting like only 4 available resorts. What gives? If the resorts are that full, won't the parks be insane? When I do the same search for rooms in september, there are TONS of available resorts, so will the crowds be non-existent in september? Do these two things not have anything to do with each other? Also, why are my resort choices so limited in november? I'm just shocked that all I have a chance at is AKL or an All Star fillintheblank.

I think the fact that there is a 1/2 Marathon the 1st weekend in Nov and Food and Wine is still going on is contributing to the room vacancy issue. I know I was shocked at the lack of availability for 11/6-15 and I made my resv 6 months ago. The last few times we have gone the parks have been shockingly busy (we only go during "off peak/slow" times of the year"). Long story short I am expecting the crowds to be heavier than currently being predicted for Nov, I would go with Sept if that is an option for you. I don't think I actually answered the questions you specifically asked but just giving my 2 cents