Crazy Airfares!!

[dvcgirl67]

The Fed has to raise interest to match inflation in order to get inflation under control. The problem is were a debt-based economy and everyone(people, government, businesses, corporations) are up to their eyeballs in debt. I see lots of pain ahead, but hopefully, we'll come out on the other side in a better place. It's been obvious for years this was not sustainable.

Yes, I understand how it goes....and agree we're in for pain. And we have reached record levels of debt once again after a bit of a lull during the pandemic when Americans piled up cash. Perhaps there's still some cash on the sidelines, but our level of consumer debt is at an all time high....as a total, and across all categories....mortgage/auto/credit card debt/student loans. And it will go up from here without question. This thread references airfares, which those of us who have enough disposable income to travel...are noticing. But we're going to see consumer debt really rise now for Americans on the lower end of the income spectrum simply to afford things like groceries, gas and utility bills.

DH and I are roughly 4-5 years out from retirement and so we're watching this period very closely....and thinking about how we'd handle spending if we were newly retired. For now, we're sticking with our 75/25 stock/bond allocation for existing holdings, but moving forward we're buying VTSAX (total stock market index)....with our tax advantaged retirement accounts, because the market is going to be "on sale" over the next couple of years. That's a change for us...as we typically continue to buy with the same asset allocation strategy. That's about 73% of our yearly savings, the other 27% is going into cash...well, not cash, but things like I-Bonds...laddered CDs, where we can get some return (albeit not beating current inflation levels). We want to accumulate 4-5 years of spending to get us started in retirement....because we don't know how the markets will be affecting our next egg in the coming few years for sure....and how that may affect our projections. We'd like to not touch the nest egg for as long as possible. Even though our projections are conservative....this is a bit of a wake-up call for sure in how our retirement years/spending can be affected.

One thing I'll enjoy in retirement is having the flexibility to really pick any day to depart/return. We can depart on a Friday for a trip, but usually we need to return on a weekend day, and so we typically pay more for flights. And we can never grab last minute sales...etc. We're still locked in with schedules...etc. Hoping that flexibility will stretch our travel dollars in retirement.

 

[Suger Mag]

Really wanted to plan a trip to WDL in Feb23... now think I am pivoting to WDW instead (LOL made the reservations already). Will keep an eye on how things change, but besides the fact i detest flying.... I am def. worried about the costs for a group of 4 or 5 flying from Massachusetts vs 4 or 5 driving from Massachusetts.

 

[zillayen]

If you're looking at Jacksonville, might as well add Daytona and Melbourne.

Melbourne is a great little airport.

 

[AnnaS]

A few weeks ago I had looked at prices for August (out of curiosity just in case I invited my sisters) - Newark to MCO - price was about the same price as yours. Crazy........DH and I are flying in October because we had a credit. I don't think we would be paying those crazy prices

 

[Mackenzie Click-Mickelson]

What's your dates in July?

 

[Dan Murphy]

google flights

Google Flights is great, so easy to use and look at the universe of flights in one easy place. I've used Kayak for years but now generally Google Flights is my go to.

 

[Ms.Minnie]

What no solar or electric planes yet? If that were even possible what would the fare be?

The sad part is this could all be a lot better if certain policies were changed. That's all I will say on this subject.

 

[Dan Murphy]

this could all be a lot better if certain policies were changed.

 

[Christine]

Do you have anything to back up the bolded? We are cruising in July. I started stalking airfare last August. Ended up booking Delta in February for $292. $18 more than the lowest. Current prices are over $300 for Allegiant/Frontier and over $400 for the legacy airlines.

Well, I can't find all my old travel research links but on various sites I used to research data was shown that airfares take their lowest dips approximately 5-7 weeks outside your departure date. In my case, booking to Florida, I have found that to be absolutely spot on advice as I tracked, tracked, tracked. Prices swiftly go up after that and generally there are no deals at that point. Sometimes the flights are also deeply discounted way out--then they rise, then fall, then go back up. Of course, that information was all predicated on "normal times" and we are not in normal times right now.

 

[sam_gordon]

Well, I can't find all my old travel research links but on various sites I used to research data was shown that airfares take their lowest dips approximately 5-7 weeks outside your departure date. In my case, booking to Florida, I have found that to be absolutely spot on advice as I tracked, tracked, tracked. Prices swiftly go up after that and generally there are no deals at that point. Sometimes the flights are also deeply discounted way out--then they rise, then fall, then go back up. Of course, that information was all predicated on "normal times" and we are not in normal times right now.

A number of years ago, one of the travel sites/magazines (don't remember which one) did an in depth look at air fare and yes, found ON AVERAGE, the 5-7 weeks out would be cheapest. BUT, what many seem to ignore is that is an AVERAGE. So from any given airport, on a given day, to any given airport, you might find HIGHER than normal prices 5-7 weeks out. There is no way in hell I'm waiting for 5-7 weeks out in the HOPE that prices go down.

I am a firm believer in stalking prices as soon as you THINK you'll be taking a trip. Then you get a feel for what's "normal" and what's a "deal". Here's some of the flights I've tracked in the past:

International to Barcelona:


Christmas trip to Florida:


Trip to Vegas (this one supports waiting, but I don't know if it was ever cheaper before I started tracking):


Another Christmas Flight to Disney that also supports waiting (the low point was 71 days before the trip):


The bottom line is there is NO "rule" on when to purchase air fare.

 

[DCLMP]

Well, not sure I agree with people being up to their eyeballs in debt. According to the Federal Reserve personal savings soared during the pandemic. People stuck at home with nowhere to spend their money, and the government gave each of us thousands of dollars in stimulus money. I was furloughed and made more in unemployment benefits with all the pandemic add ons that I would have made working.
Best example. There is a shortage of new cars. Buyers are willing to pay way over sticker price if they can find out. $10,000 over sticker is the going rate here. Pend up demand and money in the bank is the current situation. But it won't continue forever for sure, and things will crash. But I bet it is late 2023 or 2024 before that happens.

Personal debt is at an all time high. That’s pretty easy to research. Yes rich people will buy cars and desperate people will buy a payment. No reasonable person is going to buy a car right now for the heck of it. The stimulus money will be spent or already is as we see in consumer debt rising. Some people have no choice. Our government continues to spend money we don’t have and the Fed continues to create money out of thin air. It’s all a house of cards.
Airlines were leveraged to the hilt before the pandemic. SW being the exception.

I do agree with you about 2023. That’s why I’m traveling as much as I can this year and keeping an eye on the 10 year.

I would suggest buying airfare as far out as possible just because inflation isn’t going anywhere .
I’m flying to Europe on miles and it’s really hard to find any saver rates. Miles are inflated too.

 

[DCLMP]

It makes people unable to move too. Who wants to sell their home, pay the real estate fees and moving fees, and then get debt that costs twice as much?

People used to pay cash for everything because interest rates were so high. My parents bought there first home in California in the 60s for 22,000. They went through their whole life never having a mortgage or a car loan. They put 5000 in a cd for me when I was born and when I graduated high school it was worth 55,000 just off interest. High interest rates aren’t bad we have just been conditioned to buy payments and go into debt. There’s really know way around it anymore.

 

[pigletto]

I remember my parents telling me when I was a kid in the 80s the average family just didn’t fly for vacations and if they did it certainly wasn‘t an every year thing. I wonder if we are going to see a return to flying being out of budget for a middle class family.

 

[MillauFr]

What no solar or electric planes yet? If that were even possible what would the fare be?

The sad part is this could all be a lot better if certain policies were changed. That's all I will say on this subject.

Um no.

 

[Cheburashka]

There are many airports within a 3-hour drive of Orlando. Sometimes it is worth the time and drive if you can save hundreds.

Jacksonville, Tampa and Sanford could be considered.

Rental cars are extremely expensive these days, and unless you're talking about flying out of your home state of Florida to some other destination, you'd have to rent a car to use one of those airports. That can negate the cost savings of flying into a cheaper airport, especially when you factor in gas and toll fees, plus the hassle of driving between cities.

 

[Cheburashka]

I remember my parents telling me when I was a kid in the 80s the average family just didn’t fly for vacations and if they did it certainly wasn‘t an every year thing. I wonder if we are going to see a return to flying being out of budget for a middle class family.

If so, then it should also return to flying being a comfortable experience, even in coach, which it was in the 80's. Well-spaced seats, meals in coach even during 2 hour flights, etc.

 

[Upatnoon]

Fuel costs are a small factor in the recent run-up in airfares. If jet fuel was free, airfares likely wouldn't be much different. Planes are flying 100% full, even with more-expensive fuel.
It's Econ 101 -- Less supply and more demand drives up the price.

1. Before the pandemic, there were shortages of pilots. This was made worse even worse by the pandemic as many pilots took buy-out offers and retired early. Those pilots don't have to come back to work. They want to enjoy their retirement.
2. With fewer pilots, you can't offer as many flights. When you don't offer as many flights, there is less supply, driving up the price.
3. Labor is tight everywhere, including at airports. Getting enough crew to support pilots is a challenge. A pilot can't gas up his own jet like you fill up your car.
4. Airlines use demand pricing and computers to maximize profits. This means they can quickly raise prices as demand surges.
5. Demand, demand, demand. People now want to travel. There are plenty of people out there with money to burn. If you have money for a vacation, so do lots of other people and you are competing with them for seats.

What can we do if we want to fly on a budget? Also, from Econ 101, you find a substitute.

1. Broaden your net when choosing an airline. You may have been priced out of Delta but you can afford Spirit, Frontier, Breeze or Allegiant.
2. Broaden your departure and arrival city destinations. Fly to Sanford instead of Orlando. Drive to an alternative airport.
3. Shop. Use Google Flights to track fares and find destinations that may be cheaper. Airfares are always logical. Sometimes you can find a flight to Aspen, Colorado cheaper than a fare to Denver.
4. Make better choices on when to fly. If you want a Saturday-Saturday trip you will usually pay more than a Tuesday-Tuesday trip.
5. Consider driving. It may be worth taking a couple of extra days off of work if you can save thousands on airfare, especially if you have a big family.
6. Don't forget, airfare is only one part of the cost of a trip. Rental car and hotel prices also have soared on surging demand. You need to consider the cost of a vacation as a whole and not just the individual elements.
7. Be realistic. Don't live in the past. If you want to travel now, it will cost more. People often remember how they paid $39 for a hotel room, but forget it was right after 9/11 or during the Great Recession. They remember gas for $2 but forget that no one was driving anywhere because of the pandemic shutdowns. It is a choice to travel and spend money on vacations. When lots of people make the choice to travel, the price will go up. It's a challenge and a decision we all must make.

 

[fla4fun]

Well, not sure I agree with people being up to their eyeballs in debt. According to the Federal Reserve personal savings soared during the pandemic. People stuck at home with nowhere to spend their money, and the government gave each of us thousands of dollars in stimulus money. I was furloughed and made more in unemployment benefits with all the pandemic add ons that I would have made working.
Best example. There is a shortage of new cars. Buyers are willing to pay way over sticker price if they can find out. $10,000 over sticker is the going rate here. Pend up demand and money in the bank is the current situation. But it won't continue forever for sure, and things will crash. But I bet it is late 2023 or 2024 before that happens.

It really depends on individual circumstances. I have been out of work for 14 months now, but I had saved up money for living expenses anticipating an arduous job search. Not everyone could. Even with a lot of jobs open, not everyone is getting hired. I am either over or under qualified everywhere I apply.

I think there are two groups. One, the people who remained employed or were lucky to be reemployed quickly, who couldn’t spend their discretionary income and it built up for spending now. Two, those of us who lost jobs and haven’t found new ones, so money keeps flowing out for bills with no money coming in. I know people who have put rent on credit cards because they had no rent assistance or put their food and utilities on credit cards because they are trying to stretch their savings to cover rent. There were some locations that were unable to take advantage of assistance as well, for various reasons that do not need to be covered here.

I am happy for you that you are doing well financially after the pandemic, but there are a lot of people who aren’t doing well also.

 

[DCLMP]

I remember my parents telling me when I was a kid in the 80s the average family just didn’t fly for vacations and if they did it certainly wasn‘t an every year thing. I wonder if we are going to see a return to flying being out of budget for a middle class family.

My parents were upper middle class and I only flew a couple of times in the 70 and 80’s. Flying was a big deal. Families took road trips. My kids have been on a plane more times than I count. I’d say close to 50 times. They are 17 and 19.

 

[tvguy]

It really depends on individual circumstances. I have been out of work for 14 months now, but I had saved up money for living expenses anticipating an arduous job search. Not everyone could. Even with a lot of jobs open, not everyone is getting hired. I am either over or under qualified everywhere I apply.

I think there are two groups. One, the people who remained employed or were lucky to be reemployed quickly, who couldn’t spend their discretionary income and it built up for spending now. Two, those of us who lost jobs and haven’t found new ones, so money keeps flowing out for bills with no money coming in. I know people who have put rent on credit cards because they had no rent assistance or put their food and utilities on credit cards because they are trying to stretch their savings to cover rent. There were some locations that were unable to take advantage of assistance as well, for various reasons that do not need to be covered here.

I am happy for you that you are doing well financially after the pandemic, but there are a lot of people who aren’t doing well also.

Sorry to hear your challenged. The unemployment situation is baffling to me. Record low unemployment, heck, I was at Wendy's yesterday, they are drive up only, they don't have enough staff to open the inside yet, and big banners advertising $25 a hour, more than I ever made in a "profession".
The Federal Reserve as I mentioned says people savings soaring during the pandemic.

Personal debt is at an all time high. That’s pretty easy to research. Yes rich people will buy cars and desperate people will buy a payment. No reasonable person is going to buy a car right now for the heck of it. The stimulus money will be spent or already is as we see in consumer debt rising. Some people have no choice. Our government continues to spend money we don’t have and the Fed continues to create money out of thin air. It’s all a house of cards.
Airlines were leveraged to the hilt before the pandemic. SW being the exception.

I do agree with you about 2023. That’s why I’m traveling as much as I can this year and keeping an eye on the 10 year.

I would suggest buying airfare as far out as possible just because inflation isn’t going anywhere .
I’m flying to Europe on miles and it’s really hard to find any saver rates. Miles are inflated too.

Wonder what the ratio of savings to debt is now as compared to prior to the pandemic. Funny we have both record savings and record debt.